F3 f2 power play monster!!

[Audionut]

You know, i just can't get over how little the F3-F2 systems lose to...

In thinking about this... WHY NOT:

Watch the first 3 hands. Start out playing F3 on the side of the last (play 3) hand. When the first 3 in a row appears, SWITCH TO F2. The first time 2 in row appears on the LOSING side, place one bet on that side. If you win, continue on that side. If you lose, switch back to other side immediately and back to F3.

Really. What else do you need? Streaks, ZZ, TT's... won't it beat them all? OR AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WIN MORE THEN YOU LOSE? :cool:

[jerseyslim]

It's really strange but the same thing crossed my mind about a week ago, but I never sat down to put it on paper to see if it could actually work. Seemed to simple so I never really got into it nor did I think it out as far as you have as to how you should play these two combos. Thanks for the effort...........Jersey

You know, i just can't get over how little the F3-F2 systems lose to...

In thinking about this... WHY NOT:

Watch the first 3 hands. Start out playing F3 on the side of the last (play 3) hand. When the first 3 in a row appears, SWITCH TO F2. The first time 2 in row appears on the LOSING side, place one bet on that side. If you win, continue on that side. If you lose, switch back to other side immediately and back to F3.

Really. What else do you need? Streaks, ZZ, TT's... won't it beat them all? OR AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WIN MORE THEN YOU LOSE? :cool:

[kkriats]

Audio very good idea. Just a clarification. When you stated that:

The first time 2 in row appears on the LOSING side, place one bet on that side. If you win, continue on that side. If you lose, switch back to other side immediately and back to F3.

You mean when you have two losses in a row you place a bet on the winning side and if you win continue on that side. If you lose switch back to the side you were when you had the 2 loses and back to F3. If I understand correctly in this case you lose only in 212121 pattern. I am correct or no. If so we can fix it easily. We can say that if switching back we lose, go to F3 until the 2121 pattern finishes.

Thanks for sharing your ideas

kkriat

[ECD]

Good thinking guys. It so happens I played F2,3 almost exactly that way on Bet Phoenix yesterday and won every shoe.

Remember that the power of F2,3 is derived from always keeping you on the strong side. If you are always on the side of the most circles, you win, plain and simple, no matter how choppy or streaky the shoes are.

OK, we already had the rule for F2,3 that if you lose the first bet on the new side switch right back. So audio is playing by the current rules.

I always started with F3 just as audio did and I started after 3 plays but I always started on the side that won the best out of 3 rather than arbitrarily on the side that won the third bet. Hey, if the object is to always be on the strong side, you might as well start on the strong side.

F2 likes 3s but not 2s. F3 likes 2s but not 3s. So upon my first 3, I switched to F2 and then upon my first 2 playing F2 I switched back to F3 and so forth.

No, I did not lose to the 212s because both F2 and F3 loves and beats the 212s as long as you are on the strong side. I'm not sure if its possible to get on the wrong side in the 212s but if so, as said, its easy to fix. You somehow got wrong footed so simply switch sides.

As I see it, yes, you do beat straight, ZZ, TT and 212 runs. I think the only thing that can beat you is intermittant 2s and 3s such as a 2323 pattern and even that pattern has to be wrong footed to beat you. If you are playing F3 on the side of the 3s, you win.

One other thing besides the start I did differently is that I didn't concern myself with 2s or 3s that were on the side I was betting - only the ones on the other side. I'm not sure if audio is doing that the same or not.

In the current F2,3 rules we decide between F2 or 3 by which there is more of thus far but I think my version yesterday works even better. About the only thing that can beat you is incredibly bad luck.

Another thing I did is when I encountered a losing 2 or 3 on the wrong (weak) side I simply started my prog over again at 1. I don't know for sure if that is best but it sure worked good yesterday.

But that is why F2,3 is our main streak system. You virtually can't lose in streak but it usually also performs well in chop also. Hey, 3 or mores on the weak side are rare. That is how the weak side got to be the weak side and that is why F2,3 wins so often.

BTW I was playing yesterday to confirm exactly how the F2,3 rules should be stated in the manual. Except for a couple miner things we are on the same track. Its a VERY strong system!

[Audionut]

Audio very good idea. Just a clarification. When you stated that:

The first time 2 in row appears on the LOSING side, place one bet on that side. If you win, continue on that side. If you lose, switch back to other side immediately and back to F3.

You mean when you have two losses in a row you place a bet on the winning side and if you win continue on that side. If you lose switch back to the side you were when you had the 2 loses and back to F3. If I understand correctly in this case you lose only in 212121 pattern. I am correct or no. If so we can fix it easily. We can say that if switching back we lose, go to F3 until the 2121 pattern finishes.

Thanks for sharing your ideas

kkriat

Almost Remember, when I stated that you are ALREADY playing F2... and F2 "will follow the 2".... so if you get 2 losses, they HAVE to be on the losing side...plus you have a "2" that just happened. So the next bet (at least the way I'm playing this) will be on the side you just LOST on(because you had 2 in a row and you have to follow the 2). Now, if it wins, your in luck and continue to play F2 (cause when you have 3's you want to be playing F2) If that 3rd bet LOSES, then I'm back on the other side playing F3 hoping to catch some of the zig zag.

BTW... I didn't address progressions... I have been flat betting at the beginning until a win; then was using a 1,1,2 negative progression... then as I got to +3 or +4 switching to U1D2 with NO M2.

I REALLY like Papa Joes 1, 1.5, 2... that may very well prove to be the way to go.

Edited January 23, 2011 by Audionut

[Audionut]

I always started with F3 just as audio did and I started after 3 plays but I always started on the side that won the best out of 3 rather than arbitrarily on the side that won the third bet. Hey, if the object is to always be on the strong side, you might as well start on the strong side.

One other thing besides the start I did differently is that I didn't concern myself with 2s or 3s that were on the side I was betting - only the ones on the other side. I'm not sure if audio is doing that the same or not.

In the current F2,3 rules we decide between F2 or 3 by which there is more of thus far but I think my version yesterday works even better. About the only thing that can beat you is incredibly bad luck.

Another thing I did is when I encountered a losing 2 or 3 on the wrong (weak) side I simply started my prog over again at 1. I don't know for sure if that is best but it sure worked good yesterday.

!

You may be absolutely right on how to start out... it just seems when I was testing, unless I saw 3 in a row for the first 3 plays, the "streak" seemed to continue from the last play rather then the majority. Of course, my few shoes is hardly a "sample" to make a decision on, but seemed to work for me. I suspect the truth is that it's 50/50? Half the time follow the last bet, half the time follow the majority?

I also did the same strategy you stated above, i.e, not being concerned with the 2's or 3's on my betting side, just the losing side...

I also like your idea about re-starting the progression after a 2 or 3 loser...!

You continue to be my hero, Ellis!! Thanks for all your input and ideas over the years!!

[ECD]

You may be absolutely right on how to start out... it just seems when I was testing, unless I saw 3 in a row for the first 3 plays, the "streak" seemed to continue from the last play rather then the majority. Of course, my few shoes is hardly a "sample" to make a decision on, but seemed to work for me. I suspect the truth is that it's 50/50? Half the time follow the last bet, half the time follow the majority?

I also did the same strategy you stated above, i.e, not being concerned with the 2's or 3's on my betting side, just the losing side...

I also like your idea about re-starting the progression after a 2 or 3 loser...!

You continue to be my hero, Ellis!! Thanks for all your input and ideas over the years!!

We are on the same page. BTW if the shoe started with a 2, I started on play 3 right under the 2 because the best of 3 has already been decided. It worked more often than not. Now Keith is calling me to play with him on Bet Pho so catch ya later.

[kkriats]

Almost Remember, when I stated that you are ALREADY playing F2... and F2 "will follow the 2".... so if you get 2 losses, they HAVE to be on the losing side...plus you have a "2" that just happened. So the next bet (at least the way I'm playing this) will be on the side you just LOST on(because you had 2 in a row and you have to follow the 2). Now, if it wins, your in luck and continue to play F2 (cause when you have 3's you want to be playing F2) If that 3rd bet LOSES, then I'm back on the other side playing F3 hoping to catch some of the zig zag.

BTW... I didn't address progressions... I have been flat betting at the beginning until a win; then was using a 1,1,2 negative progression... then as I got to +3 or +4 switching to U1D2 with NO M2.

I REALLY like Papa Joes 1, 1.5, 2... that may very well prove to be the way to go.

Audio thanks for your explanation as Ellis clarified before. I have seen that already and practicing with some shoes. It is very easy and very promising. Thanks again kkriat

Edited January 23, 2011 by MVSeahog
Edited blank space for clarity

[aldny]

You know, i just can't get over how little the F3-F2 systems lose to...

In thinking about this... WHY NOT:

Watch the first 3 hands. Start out playing F3 on the side of the last (play 3) hand. When the first 3 in a row appears, SWITCH TO F2. The first time 2 in row appears on the LOSING side, place one bet on that side. If you win, continue on that side. If you lose, switch back to other side immediately and back to F3.

Really. What else do you need? Streaks, ZZ, TT's... won't it beat them all? OR AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WIN MORE THEN YOU LOSE? :cool:

I know the rule for F2, what is F3?

[jerseyslim]

Well I don't mean to complicate things, but possibly complicating things a bit, can improve upon our results. It's not something so complicated that you couldn't do this record keeping between hands and be able to get the next bet off. But what I'm about to show you, is going to stimulate some additional thought when looking at the F2/F3 methodology. If you're following the thresd, then you know we're betting F2 or F3, mostly on the strong side of your columns and you'll find that most of your bets will wind up on either B or P depending on what's stronger in the shoe. So I applied the rules Ellis last mentioned. Whenever I had to change sides, my first bet was for 1 unit. I know I screwed up some things as I sent along since this is the first time I've attempted this method. But if I screwed up a bit, the difference you'll see is significant regardless of whatever small errors I may have made. One thing I didn't do that I know I should have done is when making that 1 unit bet on switching sides and if it loses, the next time I bet a 2 unit bet on the switch and if that loses on next switch go to 3 units on a swich. I used a 1,2,3 up as you lose with no M2. If you look at the first two columns you know obviously what this is. Then I put an S at the top of the column indicating the balance of betting this method unit wise. However the next two column, which are labeled OT and TB in a green. The 0's under those coluns indicate if the winning hand was a OTB4L (OT) and TB4L(TB) The S after that is the cumulative result of having bet F2 and F3 as per the rules of the method. Take a look at the difference in the results. These 2 column, killed just betting P and B on an F2/F3 baisis on the same shoe. Now, in this shoe, it just so happens the second set of columns outdid the first two sets of columns. My point here is that if you want to get the maximum out of a shoe, bet F2/F3 on the columns that are winning the most. If you wanted, you could put up another set of columns which track repeats vs opposites, and once again go with what's hot and don't bet what's not. Maybe just the two sets of columns will suffice or maybe you add the opposites vs repeats. But keep using the F2/F3 method on all. Here's what the two sets of columns look like. The OT/TB columns blow away just betting P and B. And if I did it right, you had a losing shoe on the first set of columns. It had a high of +5 and wound up with a -2 but the low was -10. This shoe is from Bet Phoenix yesterday (Saturday). The second columns showed a high of +17 and wound up +7. I'm sure some other kind of progression could have done better, but comparing apples to apples, which columns would you have rather been betting on........Jersey

PS Now the thing to come up with is what triggers you into another set of columns. Obviously you can compare them to each other but when do you decide to make the switch.

Edited January 23, 2011 by jerseyslim

[jerseyslim]

Possibly Audionut and Ellis can play this shoe and see what they come up with. I know I must have made some mistakes and since you two have had good experience with this method and first shoe I do winds up a loser if you only consider the first two sets of columns which is the method as described but Ellis in his last post. I hope I got that wrong because Ellis told me he played BP yesterday for a few shoes and quite possibly this shoe. He had all winner with little drawdown. I hope I've stimulated some good thought and suggestions. Obviously there are better ways of playing this method other than just looking at P and B results. Ok pipe in Ellis and Audio........Jersey

[Audionut]

Hi Jersey... your not switching between F3 and F2 at the right times... maybe I can help (if I don't confuse myself to much

Play 13-16 is 4 in a row. When the first 3 of that 4 hit, you should be changing to F2 mode. That means play 19 you should of lost with a bet on Banker. YOU FOLLOW THE 2 which you had on hand 17 and 18.

Now, at hand 19, you should of bet banker (lost the bet). It also confirmed a 2 (hands 17 and 18). So now you switch to F3. Bet Player at 20, and lose 21 and 22 as well. Now you have 3 in a row, switch back to F2. 23 would be bet bank and 22 would be bank.

Still playing F2, 25 and 26 2 in a row on the wrong side, we play 27 on player. WHOOPS it's the first loss, plus it confirms 2 in a row, SO WE SWITCH to F3. 1st loss means we go to the other side, PLUS we switch to F3.

So 28 is a Banker bet win, 29 is a 1 loss, 30 is 2 loss, but 31 wins. 32 bank bet loses, but 33, 34, 35 are wins.

Uh oh... 3 in a row... now we play F2 at 36. 36 and 37 lose, but since we followed the 2 on 38, we won! At 39 we are back to F2 and you played correctly at least through hand 59.

Get the point? It's easy when you know how

Also, remember your money management... left column quit at -6 or -8 (depending on progression) and on the right, once your above 10, I NEVER let it go below 8. When you hit 17, I would not of let it go back below 15... do a search for "decade cash management" on this site...

Ellis really opened my eyes when he stated "baccarat is NOT a negative expectation game, it's a ZERO expectation"... SO JUST STOP WHEN YOUR AHEAD!!!

Edited January 23, 2011 by Audionut

[jerseyslim]

Thanks for your input audio. Did you by chance play this shoe based on player/banker colums and did it turn into a loser as it did for me when playing by your rules........Jersey

[jerseyslim]

I know right now why we weren't in agreement on some of these hands. Ellis told me that you based you F2/F3 changes based on the 2's and 3's on the weak or other side. So when as you say at hand 16 I should have bet B, since we just had a 3 iar, I didn't change because the 3 iar was on the side I was betting so I keep going with it and don't change modes. The next mode change occurs once on the weak side, after hands 17 and 18 and you get a confirmed 2 on the weak ( side, after that it changes to F3. I think this idea is better since as you pointed back at hands 13-16 you had a streak going and your rules had you jumping off it. Ellis's rules kept you in that run. I'm not saying who is right or wrong, but Ellis's rule on this one seems to be the better decision since you don't want to be in the middle of a good run and for no apparent reason jumping off it and going to the other side to take a loss.

[Audionut]

I know right now why we weren't in agreement on some of these hands. Ellis told me that you based you F2/F3 changes based on the 2's and 3's on the weak or other side. So when as you say at hand 16 I should have bet B, since we just had a 3 iar, I didn't change because the 3 iar was on the side I was betting so I keep going with it and don't change modes. The next mode change occurs once on the weak side, after hands 17 and 18 and you get a confirmed 2 on the weak ( side, after that it changes to F3. I think this idea is better since as you pointed back at hands 13-16 you had a streak going and your rules had you jumping off it. Ellis's rules kept you in that run. I'm not saying who is right or wrong, but Ellis's rule on this one seems to be the better decision since you don't want to be in the middle of a good run and for no apparent reason jumping off it and going to the other side to take a loss.

Hey, if it's between me and Ellis go with Ellis every time !! And go with the rules YOU are the most comfortable with.

I just like this F3/F2 MONSTER because it's mechanical and it seems to work.. I actually printed out your card 3 times and got so confused between my scribbling and overwriting that I gave up on it... have no doubt it would of been a loser; but that the loss (for me, anyway) would of been around -7.... but just look how NICE your right hand column shoe was! STILL end up with around + 7 if you quit the previous game at -8 and the right hand one at +15.

In real life, I find myself almost always stopping or slowing down after hitting my goal of +10. Would like to follow the old Maverick goal of $1000 per day playing $25 units, 4 shoes @ 10 units per shoe...

I think this system can do it....!!

Thanks also to the people that have PM'ed me... Hey, this system is all Ellis... I just like to "improve" 'em if possible!!!

[jerryczy]

So, when play F3 and losses 2 hands, the lossing patten will be 2131(2 on the losing side) right? confusing...

Almost Remember, when I stated that you are ALREADY playing F2... and F2 "will follow the 2".... so if you get 2 losses, they HAVE to be on the losing side...plus you have a "2" that just happened. So the next bet (at least the way I'm playing this) will be on the side you just LOST on(because you had 2 in a row and you have to follow the 2). Now, if it wins, your in luck and continue to play F2 (cause when you have 3's you want to be playing F2) If that 3rd bet LOSES, then I'm back on the other side playing F3 hoping to catch some of the zig zag.

BTW... I didn't address progressions... I have been flat betting at the beginning until a win; then was using a 1,1,2 negative progression... then as I got to +3 or +4 switching to U1D2 with NO M2.

I REALLY like Papa Joes 1, 1.5, 2... that may very well prove to be the way to go.

[jerseyslim]

Audio.......they are the same shoe. Only difference is in the right hand winning method, I was keying off otb4l and tbl. Check the column. It's the same shoe only looking at it differently but using F2/3 to bet the patterns. You could do the same thing with opposites and repeats if you wanted to add them the mix. The key is decide on when to switch to another column......Jersey

[ECD]

Sorry guys, I was hung up on the shoe Jersey posted just below that starts with a P213123. It brings up an extremely important point I'll get back to in a second.

First, Lenny wrote me that I missed the question audio had about how ADN 3Hi was doing???

ADN 3Hi is doing fine but remember that we were discussing ADN for the Singapore players playing completely random shoes. So for THEIR purposes I recommended ADN because it disregards shoe history which is mostly meaningless in a truly random situation. THEY have that handicap. WE don't. I think they would be better off playing on line but ADN is about the best we can do for them if they insist on playing random casinos.

There are two schools of thought on playing random shoes. The prevailing wisdom is to use an aggressive prog like U1D2 M2 and attempt to "buy" the shoe by outlasting all the negative shoe sections.

I do NOT agree with this. I say the less you know about a shoe the less you should bet. So, I'm saying that in a completely unknown random situation like they face, THEY should be thinking in terms of 3 hi.

Granted, U1D2 M2 or other aggressive progs will win more shoes BUT, when you finally lose, you lose the farm.

A 3 Hi wins less often but it reduces risk to something a normal bankroll can withstand. ALL mechanical systems break even in the long run so they make the name of the game "Quit while you are ahead".

WE don't have that random handicap so we would be foolish to give up our advantage of shoe biases just for the ease of playing mechanically. That's like saying all these 14 clubs are too heavy so I think I'll just bring my 5 iron to the US Open. Yes, its convenient BUT...Nobody ever won the US open W/O ALL their clubs.

It is just as WRONG to try to make F2,3 fit ALL situations. IT WON'T. What we ARE interested in is the best way to play F2,3 WHEN the shoe calls for F2,3 and only then. We need to stay focused on S40A and select the system the shoe calls for.

Which brings us to Jersey's shoe. We KNOW that OTB4L likes single 1's, 2s, and 3s. Jersey's shoe starts out with SIX of the darn things with 8 in the first Col. alone. Our path is crystal clear.

But, if not yet clear enough, we know that F2,3 does NOT like + OR counts. Jersey's shoe ends up +8 ruling OUT F2,3.

And if still not clear enough, we know that OTB4L likes OR counts that keep hitting or crossing 0. Jersey's shoe hits or crosses 0 SEVEN times by play 13. You will seldom ever see such a clear cut OTB4L situation or such a clear cut ruling out of anything else.

Now we CAN play U1D2 comfortably because we have a HIGHLY biased shoe so we take advantage of THAT fact. Playing straight OTB4L U1D2 and going OTR for ONE bet only after 2 losses we hit + 19 3 times with a highest bet of 5. Playing U1D2 M2 we hit +20 and Quit.

The moral here is DON'T get hung up on any ONE mechanical system no matter how good it seems to be. YES, our mechanical systems are the best on the face of the Earth but ALL mechanical systems break even in the long run when you pay no attention to shoe type and system selection. THAT is why we have S40A. THAT does NOT break even. S40A wins!

Edited January 24, 2011 by ECD

[jerseyslim]

Ellis.........Just curious as to why you selected going otr after 2 losses when I see the 3's are MC for the most part or is the sap count not relevant with otb4l. If we were betting sys40 we'd be looking to bet opposites after 3. With hindsight we know you're safe just betting one otr bet after the 2 losses but in general, when we don't know the results, what are the rules on going otr with otb4l. One other thing with this shoe. In starting it off, it would appear to be an F2 shoe. You have single 1's, we have 3's and a number of multiple. I can't see starting this shoe off in anything but F2. After the fact or after getting maybe 20 hands in the shoe we might then realize we can go

otb4l but I can't see where you would start right from the beginning and say this is an otb4l shoe. I remember having illustrations of shoes starting off like this and starting with F2.. In the end we can say the one mode that would fit this entire shoe is otb4l but at the start, not knowing anything, this has to be the start of an F2 shoe. Wouldn't you agree Ellis.............Jersey

Edited January 24, 2011 by jerseyslim

[Audionut]

First, Lenny wrote me that I missed the question audio had about how ADN 3Hi was doing???

!

Hi Ellis... I think Lenny was refering to DN3Hi...this question I asked on another thread(maybe DN is the same as ADN?):

Originally Posted by E. Clifton Davis

An interesting aside: I'm looking at a brand new 3 Hi. I call it the DN3Hi. It's a wholly different way of playing with a 3 max bet that seems to be doing too well winning both chop and streak and doing very well with 311's and 113's. I've got some i's to dot and T's to cross but it is very easy and a whole new approach. I'll get back to you on it as soon as I've played more shoes.

Just curious...did anything ever become of this??? Inquiring minds want to know

Edited January 24, 2011 by Audionut