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Ha, this one was definitely OTB4L but I just couldn't get the mode right. I started in Mode 2 and that proved wrong so I switch to Mode 3 just in time for Mode 2 to start working. But this shoe was so strong OTB4L the Mode didn't matter that much. Note that I finally got a little more aggressive but only just in time to lose my first higher bet prog. I only needed 1 unit to hit my +20 in the end so I went back to a 1 bet. This shoe KILLED the other players at the table.

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Ellis, I have a couple questions abou this shoe:

1. It looks like your first two bets were OR, and then you went right to OTB4L. What is is about a 1-2-1 start to the shoe which had you abandon OR so soon? This ends up being a good OTB4L shoe, but after 1-2-1 you could also have won 2 of 3 NOR bets. Could you explain why your thinking here was different than the idea of an overlay after 10-12 hands?

2. Once you went to OTB4L, you used flat bets for a few hands and then a 12 progression until your were +4 in the shoe, at which time you moved to 234. This is a good example of your teaching to "test" the shoe first and then try to move to more aggressive progressions on the casino's money. My question is that between the 12 and 234, it appears you went back to flat betting briefly. What was your thinking here?

3. I am looking to understand the best betting progression for OTR bets. I understand from various teachings that sometimes we may bt OTR in the current progression and sometimes may treat the OTR bets as their own separate progression. In this shoe, your first OTR bet (in Mode 2) was 1 unit. The second OTR bet (in Mode 3) was for 3 units. This bet was not in the current progression (had just lost the 234 progression), nor was it a logical bet based on the previous OTR bet of 1 unit. The third and fourth OTR bets were both made in the current beting progression (4 units after loosing the 2 and 3). Could you provide some further teaching on this topic?

Thank you!

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Ellis, I have a couple questions abou this shoe:

1. It looks like your first two bets were OR, and then you went right to OTB4L. What is is about a 1-2-1 start to the shoe which had you abandon OR so soon? This ends up being a good OTB4L shoe, but after 1-2-1 you could also have won 2 of 3 NOR bets. Could you explain why your thinking here was different than the idea of an overlay after 10-12 hands?

Right, my first 2 bets were S40. When a shoe begins with 2 Ops I usually go ahead and bet Op in case of a ZZ. But I got a confirmed 2. The confirmed 2, together with the fact that these factory preshuffled cards were, in general, favoring OTB4L more than 40 put me on OTB4L right away. Further play AND overlay after 12-13 hands confirmed this. My bet at play 11 was questionable. I should have either bet the 3 or not bet at all. Note the first 12 hands contained 3 2s, no multiple 1's and nothing longer than a 4. That spells OT - 3, then the 6 says OT-2.

2. Once you went to OTB4L, you used flat bets for a few hands and then a 12 progression until your were +4 in the shoe, at which time you moved to 234. This is a good example of your teaching to "test" the shoe first and then try to move to more aggressive progressions on the casino's money. My question is that between the 12 and 234, it appears you went back to flat betting briefly. What was your thinking here?

No, no flat betting. In the 234 when you win the 2 you stay at 2. It just LOOKED like I was flat betting because of the TT run. OTB4L loves those. I waited a little too long to move up to the 234. After 5 straight winning bets you are pushing your luck to go up at that point. Sure enough I lost my very first attempt at the 234. My choice was quit or attempt 1 more bet. If I bet 4 and lose, I hit my stop loss. So I did the next best thing and bet 3 which put me right back in the game. It was clear sailing after that for OTB4L -2 because of the 6 in a row.

3. I am looking to understand the best betting progression for OTR bets. I understand from various teachings that sometimes we may bt OTR in the current progression and sometimes may treat the OTR bets as their own separate progression. In this shoe, your first OTR bet (in Mode 2) was 1 unit. The second OTR bet (in Mode 3) was for 3 units. This bet was not in the current progression (had just lost the 234 progression), nor was it a logical bet based on the previous OTR bet of 1 unit. The third and fourth OTR bets were both made in the current beting progression (4 units after loosing the 2 and 3). Could you provide some further teaching on this topic?

Thank you!

Right, unless I'm quite familiar with the table I usually go back to 1 on my first OTR bet. If that goes OK I'll bet my next OTR bet the next bet due in the prog. If it doesn't, my next OTR bet is 2.

But in this case, because I picked exactly the wrong time to up my prog, a 5 bet is due. As it turned out, the 5 was the right bet but this is a little rough given the fact that I had just lost BOTH my two highest bets in the shoe. So I backed down to a 3 unfortunately. But I got away with it. After that. playing OT-2 my OTR bets are never more than 4 and much easier to put out there esp. with a bigger cushion.

Then, at +19 I switched back to a 1,2 because I only needed 1 unit to hit my +20 and a 1,2 gives me 2 chances which it turns out I needed.

I think this shoe shoes why I only stay OTR 1 bet. It turned out right in every single case.

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  • 2 months later...

Hi, Ellis,

We all know hindsight is everything. However, in looking over this Sands IV shoe, on the first 5 going to 6 in a row, the O/R count became more significantly negative. In real time play, I probably would have switched to the F mode of playing instead of playing with OT-2.

You have also advocated minimal change in system. So is the "better" preference to stick with OT-2, but play OTR through and through? Instead of switching to F2/F3?

Any ideas or comments about how best to choose at that moment in time? Thank you for your help!

Daytrader77459

Edited by daytrader77459
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