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Barona Shoe Example Shoe by Way2Fast Analysis by ECD Group Played May 27th 2011


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Ellis, I would be interested in your critique of how I played this shoe.

This is from last Saturday and was the only shoe I played on a short trip to Barona Casino outside San Diego.

I started at the beginning of the shoe and decided to flat bet OTB4L until I got an early indication of how to play the shoe. After the first 3 bankers, I decided to skip a bet to see if there would be an early 4 in a row. After the 4th banker, I went to F2 with a 1 unit flat bet.

On play 7 i went to a 1,2 progression; on play 10 I went to 123; on play 15 I went to 234; and on play 18 I went to 345.

At play 24 I was up +19 units and decided to go to a 1,2 progression to have two opportunities to reach goal of 20. With hindsight, this was not the correct play. Having moved to the 345, I should have been focused on a 30 unit goal. After loosing both attempts to get to 20, I decided to switch to OR, which was looking pretty good based on last 7 or so decisions. Once I lost that bet I realized the switch was a mistake, and decided to exit with a 15 unit win. I wasn't comfortable with my train of thought at that point, so was satisfied to be out with a nice win for a few minutes work.

What I learned:

1. make sure I have the right targets for the quality of the shoe. I had a super streaky shoe and quickly got to 345, but I failed to match that with a more aggressive win target.

2. The idea of overlay of the last 7-10 hands is something I really like, but need to be careful not to switch too quickly, especially when the overall shoe tendency is so strong.

This continues to be a learning experience, and I would appreciated Ellis, and anyone else, to offer suggestions/observations.

[ATTACH]2126[/ATTACH]

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This continues to be a learning experience, and I would appreciated Ellis, and anyone else, to offer suggestions/observations.

Way2fast,

Well, I'm not the guy to offer up a critique but I had my wife read it out to me (didn't see it as she printed it out) and I started it right at hand 5 on F2. At the end where you were at +19, I was +15 and then I lost two and won the final wager to finish at +14.

That big starting streak got me on F2 to test the waters and I just stayed on it.

I did not up the wagers and stayed at 1,2,3 for the wagering. Luckily there was no losing 3 bet, so it was pretty smooth sailing all the way.

MVS (just adding my 2 cents to the thread)

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Try as I might I can't download this shoe on this new computer. It won't download Adobe Reader. Must be a security block I can't find.

But that's OK. I can tell what the shoe was from way2fast's decisions. Way2fast, I take it you won a 2 at play 15, lost a 2 at 16 and won a 3 at 17, then stayed at 3 at 19, lost that 3 and 4 but would have won the 5 at 21.

I think you both played it very well. MVS, I think you see why I say turn on the heat as early as you reasonably can. You don't get this good a shoe all the time.

Way2fast, given that this was your first shoe of the day, I don't blame you at all for pulling in the reins to attempt to hit 20 on the nose. On the first shoe of the day I would very likely do the same thing. In fact I DID do exactly the same thing on a first shoe of the day on one of the trip shoes.

There is nothing better for your spirits than starting out the day with a 20 or more. I probably would have quit at 20 if that 1 or 2 bet had won.

I hate when as soon as you up your prog you lose the first 2 bets. That also happened in one or 2 of the trip shoes. I went ahead and made the 3rd bet But I would not have done so if it was the first shoe of the day. I would have played it exactly as you did and I would have quit exactly where you did.

A first shoe +15 seems to sort of set the tone for the day. I'm always extremely careful on that first shoe. I'm very careful with table selection because I know how important it is to start the day right.

Given the fact that both of you had just read my remarks on betting and cash mgt and MVS had just gotten the Modes down right, I think you both did exceptionally well.

MVS, I was also slow to upgrade my prog on many of the trip shoes. Sometimes something just makes you leary. I've learned to listen to those signs my subconcious seems to be whispering. I think there is something inside us that is a little smarter than we are, that knows how to decipher experience a little better than we do, a sort of sixth sense.

I've learned to be suspicious of shoes that start out that great. A +20 or thereabouts in the first column always makes me nervous. It seems the shoes that start the strongest are the ones most likely to change. I feel more comfortable when I have to struggle a little. But it isn't the kind of thing you can put in a manual. And pretty often you end up saying to yourself: "I don't know what the hell I was worried about!" The shoe stayed just as good as it started.

But this is really the first test of the completed manual. Well more or less completed. After more attempts than I like to think about, I am convinced that NOR is the best approach to Baccarat possible. Unlike most manuals I really don't foresee any changes, maybe some reiterations, but no actual changes.

Well done guys!

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Thank you both for your responses. Your comments are very helpful. Clearly, working through some real situations is a great way to solidify the teachings we are getting from Ellis.

I was trying to post the shoe as a picture so you could see it in the post, but darn if I couldn't make it work -- even following the instructions carefully. If anyone can make it clear how to make an attachment show as an image in the post, that would be great.

On play 15 I lost the 2 (first bet of 234), and then won the 3 on play 16 and won the 2 on play 17. On play 18 I went to 345 and won the 3 on play 18 and 19 (awesome streaky shoe!); lost the 3 on play 20 and won the 4 on play 21.

The shoe is B63141411123.

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Thank you both for your responses. Your comments are very helpful. Clearly, working through some real situations is a great way to solidify the teachings we are getting from Ellis.

I was trying to post the shoe as a picture so you could see it in the post, but darn if I couldn't make it work -- even following the instructions carefully. If anyone can make it clear how to make an attachment show as an image in the post, that would be great.

On play 15 I lost the 2 (first bet of 234), and then won the 3 on play 16 and won the 2 on play 17. On play 18 I went to 345 and won the 3 on play 18 and 19 (awesome streaky shoe!); lost the 3 on play 20 and won the 4 on play 21.

The shoe is B63141411123.

Streaky, right! -6 OR in 27 plays, but you will get them even streakier particularly at night with old cards.

F will win almost all shoes that favor repeats. About the only thing that can go wrong is intermitant 2s and 3s on the weak side. That is pretty darn rare. When you get that, a good trick is to simply go to F4or if you aren't getting any ZZs go to straight repeats.

Way2fast, I'll bet you did better than any other player at the table.

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Streaky, right! -6 OR in 27 plays, but you will get them even streakier particularly at night with old cards.

F will win almost all shoes that favor repeats. About the only thing that can go wrong is intermitant 2s and 3s on the weak side. That is pretty darn rare. When you get that, a good trick is to simply go to F4or if you aren't getting any ZZs go to straight repeats.

Way2fast, I'll bet you did better than any other player at the table.

Well, of course I left early -- much to the surprise of the rest of the table. I'm sure they noticed the $1,500 profit when I colored up. Twice I was the only player on the winning side, and both times someone at the table said something to the effect of "how did I know?" Even a blind squirel gets the nut every now and then :)

I typically play in LV -- this was my first time at Barona (California Indian casino). I was amazed how crowded the tables are, and they also let up to two standing people play for each of the seated players. I was there for just one night and this table was in the late afternoon. I didn't play at all after dinner as it was just tooo crowded. There is a large contigent which wanders amongst the four tables looking for what they think is next winning dragon bet. This casino must make a fortune on the dragon and tie wagers being made.

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Ellis, I would be interested in your critique of how I played this shoe.

This is from last Saturday and was the only shoe I played on a short trip to Barona Casino outside San Diego.

For those of you who had problems with Way2Fast's shoe, here it is to take a look at.

I'll try to track down my old thread about "How to Post a graphic" and add the pointer later.

MVS

post-2595-1450026138411_thumb.jpg

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  • Keith Smith changed the title to Barona Shoe Example Shoe by Way2Fast Analysis by ECD Group Played May 27th 2011

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