Shoes play in Macau

[kelvin2009]

I need help on the following shoes that i have lost during my trip to Macau yesterday. Please note that the shoe is not recorded till the end of the shoe; only to the point where i lost eight units.

I use OTB4L for both shoes. The betting progression is 123 and the starting mode is 2. i do not bet OTR until the mode is proven.

Please advise how would you play such shoes:

Shoe 1- Starting play is 7

B12121531112

B21 (until this play, OR count is zero)

Shoe 2- Starting play is 9

P2231121422

B11142114131

B6211114(until this play, OR count is -5)

[Guest]

Hi kelvin,

I'll take the first one:

S40 was a reasonable choice and starting in Mode 2 was correct But after the 5 in a row (where you had a high score) the Mode was never right again and the shoe also went to streak. Not good. Had I been playing S40 I would have got out at +1.

BUT, I wouldn't have been playing S40. S.S. (Strong side) when it occurs, always takes precedence.

Note at play 6 that P outnumbers B 2 to 1. That is an F shoe.

Had you started at play 8 with F2 you would have had your +10 already at the bottom of the 4 in a row. (play 22)

Remember what I said about SS. It is easy to miss. You must always keep it in mind.

Sorry to add insult to injury.

But also, always think twice about making a bet that could take you below +1 in shoes that started good.

[kelvin2009]

Hi Davis,

Thank for the reply. Why would you choose S40 shoe over OTb4l just by looking at the first few plays? In the beginning first 6 plays, Otb4l would have also done well too.

[Guest]

Correct! I would not have picked S40 but I assumed you did since it was the only way you could have lost. OTB4L M2 rocks on that shoe until the 4 in a row but if you started early enough you would have been out by then.

[MVSeahog]

I need help on the following shoes that i have lost during my trip to Macau yesterday.

P2231121422

B11142114131

B6211114(until this play, OR count is -5)

Hi. I figured I had some time today and wanted to run at least one of those shoes and it looks like Ellis got the first one so I'll try the second one.

I had to wait a day or so in order to not "remember" what I had written down and it takes a few days for my wife to go along with shouting out the decisions to me after dinner when I ran this one.

Anyway, I started at hand 8 going OTR after the three Players. It lost so I went right back into S40 Mode 2 (S40M2) which is what I'm most comfortable with to start a shoe.

At hand 16 was another OTR single wager, which won and then back to S40M2.

The count was holding right around zero and not really moving much but those two "4's" that had already come up were holding me off of going to OTB4L.

The rest of the shoe has annotation that should be self explanatory of when I went OTR and back off.

Notice that towards the end of the shoe, my wagers do become very conservative. After hitting a target of "6" for the third time at hand 52, I should have exited gracefully and took the win. However, there couldn't be too many more hands so I elected to try a few "single" unit wagers to see if I might get lucky and hit a few more in a row.

Hopefully I can remember how to post up a local graphic here again.

Also, I'm still in a state of "flux" for a design for the working scoresheet although the casino cards seem to work just fine. I love being back to a single pencil to work with!

MVS

[cheng6991]

Hi Kevin,

This is very difficult shoe to win at the casino. When practice in paper after you see the whole, Every one could win this shoe. I would start out OBT4L at play 5 after 22 confirmed but still lost money on this shoe.

[jerryczy]

For shoe 2, if you play OTB4L mode 3(both) OTR for 1 bet at 4 all the way down,will won 10 units atlease.

BTW, This is a perfect RD1 shoe.

Edited January 5, 2012 by jerryczy

[MVSeahog]

Hi Kevin,

This is very difficult shoe to win at the casino. When practice in paper after you see the whole, Every one could win this shoe. I would start out OBT4L at play 5 after 22 confirmed but still lost money on this shoe.

Cheng6991,

That's why I always post my reasons for making the wagers in the notation of a shoe played. If there was a reason for the change from S40M2 to M3, then it gets pointed out. If it changes from S40 to OTR and back, the reasons are shown.

Obviously anyone can look at a previously played shoe and say what "should" have been played. The key with running another person's shoe is to see the thought process that is going on and the REASONS for the particular bets! (Well, at least my reasons, which may or may not be correct!!)

Does that make sense to everyone?

MVS

[Guest]

Hi Kevin,

This is very difficult shoe to win at the casino. When practice in paper after you see the whole, Every one could win this shoe. I would start out OBT4L at play 5 after 22 confirmed but still lost money on this shoe.

Well you are partially right Anthony. You started at the right place with the right system at play 5. Then if you simply follow your manual: even if you start in Mode 2 and make your first OTR bets 1 unit both for straight and ZZ runs like your manual says, the 3rd bet rule switches you to Mode 3 in both cases and like Joey said you hit your +10 at play 49 where you would definitely get out.

No shoe is easy when we have to switch modes and play 49 is a little late to be hitting your +10 but no Monday morning quarterbacking is needed to beat this shoe. All that is needed is your manual. Try it, you'll like it.

Would somebody please post this shoe. I started at play 5 with a 1,1 on P, 121 on B, 2111 on P, 2 on B 1,2 on P, 1B, 1P, 1,1 B for a score of 0 at play 20 and a worst position of -3 at play 17. You end up with a highest bet of a single 4 at the bottom circle of the 6 in a row and hit +10 3 plays later. Just play it by the book.

BTW, when a shoe starts with 2,2 I'm not going to wait to confirm the second 2. I'm jumping in right there because the 2nd 2 has to go to 5 to hurt me which is highly unlikely.

Guys, don't guess! Follow the manual. That's what it's for. I can guarantee this Much: Nobody else at that table is going to be at +10 at play 49 in this shoe. In fact, nobody else is even going to be ahead. Anthony is right about that!

OK my second col was: 121 on P, 2B, 3P, 1231B, 1,1P, 1,1B, 1231P, 2B, for a +8

The 3rd col is: 1P, 2B, 123 P, 4B, 1,1P, 1B = +10 EVERY play by the book.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Guest

[BigVic]

Hi. I figured I had some time today and wanted to run at least one of those shoes and it looks like Ellis got the first one so I'll try the second one.

I had to wait a day or so in order to not "remember" what I had written down and it takes a few days for my wife to go along with shouting out the decisions to me after dinner when I ran this one.

Anyway, I started at hand 8 going OTR after the three Players. It lost so I went right back into S40 Mode 2 (S40M2) which is what I'm most comfortable with to start a shoe.

At hand 16 was another OTR single wager, which won and then back to S40M2.

The count was holding right around zero and not really moving much but those two "4's" that had already come up were holding me off of going to OTB4L.

The rest of the shoe has annotation that should be self explanatory of when I went OTR and back off.

Notice that towards the end of the shoe, my wagers do become very conservative. After hitting a target of "6" for the third time at hand 52, I should have exited gracefully and took the win. However, there couldn't be too many more hands so I elected to try a few "single" unit wagers to see if I might get lucky and hit a few more in a row.

Hopefully I can remember how to post up a local graphic here again.

Also, I'm still in a state of "flux" for a design for the working scoresheet although the casino cards seem to work just fine. I love being back to a single pencil to work with!

MVS

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2211[/ATTACH]

Could you please explain your reasons for your OTR bets? At play 22 you lost your OTR bet, so why at play 27 did you bet OTR? Also at play 40 then play 43 the same scenario plays out. I thought per the manual that we are supposed to look at what happened the previous time we go OTR and make our decision as whether to go OTR based on if the last time we went OTR the bet won or lost?

Thank you for post a play by play shoe. It helps a lot.

[MVSeahog]

Could you please explain your reasons for your OTR bets? At play 22 you lost your OTR bet, so why at play 27 did you bet OTR? Also at play 40 then play 43 the same scenario plays out. I thought per the manual that we are supposed to look at what happened the previous time we go OTR and make our decision as whether to go OTR based on if the last time we went OTR the bet won or lost?

Thank you for post a play by play shoe. It helps a lot.

Vic,

Sure thing. No problem.

At hand 27 I hadn't lost two OTR wagers in a row so I went with that bet at that point. At hand 27 there wasn't anything really telling me to NOT bet OTR at that hand and as has been previously mentioned, I don't particularly like changing around a lot in the shoe. On the other hand, had that wager lost, I probably would NOT have made the OTR wager at hand 35.

At hand 40 the OTR wager lost, but it was only the first one. At hand 43 I went with the OTR wager as they had been winning more than losing AND it was only the second one in a row.

I was very tempted at hand 47 to bet the Banker run OTR and stay on it until it ran its course, but I didn't and went back to S40M2. Of course I'd look like a typical "anti" bettor to anyone at the table but it didn't lose the series and did show a small profit through that section, so I believe that was a good choice. Besides, at that point there were 13 1's and 2's in the shoe and that also made me think about heading back into S40M2 instead of staying on the Banker run.

Cheng6691 is correct is saying that anybody can play a shoe "ex post facto" and beat it. My "looking back" choice on that shoe would have been F3, but that's not the way I'm wired when playing for real. My bias is S40Mx probably 85%-90% of the time and when I see a shoe like that, I'm all over it.

Thanks for the questions as it forces ME to go back and take a good look at what I did and why. Positive reinforcement is always good practice!

Also, when I tackle one of these shoes that another member posts, I transcribe it to paper and put it away for a few days and THEN make the play on it. The wife reads me a decision when I call for it. In this way I'm not actually looking at the scorecard of the original player AND the memory of the shoe is somewhat muddled by that time!

MVS

[cheng6991]

Ellis,

I just played the shoe follow your order. Please check it over for any mistakes.

[cheng6991]

Ellis,

Let me cut down the size so That I can post the shoe.

[TomM]

Ellis,

On the second shoe that Kelvin submitted and you do a verbal replay in your post #9 I am with you until play #31 then you have it as "OK my second col was: 121 on P, 2B, 3P, 1231B, 1,1P, 1,1B, 1231P, 2B, for a +8"

From the 1,1B that starts at #32 I lose your train of thought. I only managed to finish the 2nd column with a +3 with my understanding of the NOR modes regarding OTB4L. Since the downloaded shoes did not have an OTB4L shoes shifting between modes this may be a good example shoe to include in the samples.

I was going finish and post this shoe but lost it at #32 so would appreciate a clarification from that point in the shoe to the finish. Or if the transcription is correct maybe someone else can work it out and post ?

[Guest]

Ellis,

On the second shoe that Kelvin submitted and you do a verbal replay in your post #9 I am with you until play #31 then you have it as "OK my second col was: 121 on P, 2B, 3P, 1231B, 1,1P, 1,1B, 1231P, 2B, for a +8"

From the 1,1B that starts at #32 I lose your train of thought. I only managed to finish the 2nd column with a +3 with my understanding of the NOR modes regarding OTB4L. Since the downloaded shoes did not have an OTB4L shoes shifting between modes this may be a good example shoe to include in the samples.

I was going finish and post this shoe but lost it at #32 so would appreciate a clarification from that point in the shoe to the finish. Or if the transcription is correct maybe someone else can work it out and post ?

There is nothing strange going on in the plays you mention Tom so I'm wondering if we both transcribed the 2nd col correctly. I have the 2nd col as B1114224131, right.

Ok, your 3rd bet loses at play 17 so starting at that point you are in Mode 3 on straight runs. Therefore, at play 36 your 3 bet goes straight down and wins confirming Mode 3. So you lose your 3 bet at play 45 but then win your 4111 giving you +10 at play 49. I'm not seeing anything strange about this shoe. Can you follow my plays and tell me which play you question?

Again, would somebody please post this shoe the way I played it? I posted every play already. Just play it the same way I did and post it. I played it right to the manual. Your 3 bet at play 28 is also straight down and you win. Play 11 confirms mode 3 for ZZs which holds up until you hit your +10. Standard OTB4L all the way. I'm not seeing any question.

Maybe I have the 2nd col transcribed wrong because mine is different from Anthony's. If so, I apologize. I'll go back and check it.

OH, OK sorry, I do have it transcribed wrong. Anthony has it right. Sorry.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Guest

[TomM]

There is nothing strange going on in the plays you mention Tom so I'm wondering if we both transcribed the 2nd col correctly. I have the 2nd col as B1114224131, right.

Ok, your 3rd bet loses at play 17 so starting at that point you are in Mode 3 on straight runs. Therefore, at play 36 your 3 bet goes straight down and wins confirming Mode 3. So you lose your 3 bet at play 45 but then win your 4111 giving you +10 at play 49. I'm not seeing anything strange about this shoe. Can you follow my plays and tell me which play you question?

Again, would somebody please post this shoe the way I played it? I posted every play already. Just play it the same way I did and post it. I played it right to the manual. Your 3 bet at play 28 is also straight down and you win. Play 11 confirms mode 3 for ZZs which holds up until you hit your +10. Standard OTB4L all the way. I'm not seeing any question.

Maybe I have the 2nd col transcribed wrong because mine is different from Anthony's. If so, I apologize. I'll go back and check it.

OH, OK sorry, I do have it transcribed wrong. Anthony has it right. Sorry.

I tried uploading Kelvins shoe #2 that Anthony tackled and we played the same so that's fine. I end up with +5 at #40 but I think that is because of a math error at top of his replay and maybe there is another I didn't look further than that. Or perhaps we both have a math error's.

I have uploaded a lot of shoes in the past so I am wondering why when I tried uploading the dinky 184 kb jpeg it said I had exceeded my 5 mb limit. There was a little red dot next to the file that when I hovered over it tossed out a dialog box saying this so I gave up after a few attempts and resizing again but no go.

I have been having periodic problems when I log in via Explorer 8 brower forcing me to relog sometimes 2 or 3 times before I can enter the NOR forum. So I switched to Firefox and it works better so that's what I am on now, but still having the same trouble yesterday with the jpeg upload attempt.

I wrote a commentary yesterday to post with that shoe so I will just post that to get it off my desktop. Here goes something hopefully lol.

Alright, I have made my share of transcription errors, but to carry on with Kelvins shoe #2 from lasts nights attempt on my part when I started I just compared Kelvin's play #'s to MVS' card and it looked right so I jumped in but when I hit play #32 I figured it must be a transcription error but it was late so I just did it the way I would have (same as Anthony's as it turns out), but last night I did not finish playing the column and made a math error and thought I would finish the 2nd column +3 but now in actually playing it out I caught my mental math error and it is better than I thought. So now my score with corrected math stands at +5 at #40, which isn't so bad all things considered, however with the 4's coming on strong in the second column and the 2's reduced to just one in that column I would probably just quit there. Also the score had bounced off +3 four times before arriving at that single +5. But if I pressed into the 3rd column I hit +6 and then lost the 1,2 bet against the Bank side which dragged me down once again to +3.

If I was alert I would have quit there. If I did decide to go on I would only bet 1 unit because even though the 4's have been solid to this point the C/S count just hit a high minus of -4, the TB4L bets were outpacing the OTB4L in the prior column and that trend was continuing into the 3rd column. So taken as a whole, IF I didn't get out earlier I would make the one unit bet at #44 and losing just make +2 my bottom line and quit the shoe. I believe you said, once you hit +6 don't make a bet in that shoe that will take you below zero. So if you make the 4 unit bet on Bank and it stays a 5R you would have gone from +6 to -4 in five hands and the worst part is your running out of shoe and the SAP count isn't so great at 8, 8, 12,12...you might decide to just bet repeats but the 6 Ops that comes out spoils most of that.

I think be grateful for what you got in this shoe and cut and run at either +3, or +5. Besides when the shoe ends 2's are least common and the 6 Ops in the third is a mode buster.

At least that is how I see it. I would have definitely started OTB4L but as the shoe unfolded I would be looking for a good escape point in this one.

P.S. In the first two columns the most consistent event was the 4 Ops which I may have added a chip or two to that bet at #33 that confirms the 4 Ops (the count was also favorable and 1‘s running slightly below normal) but I like to do that with money already won in the shoe and at that point my score was zero so only the standard NOR bet.

Some of the counts online are much easier to calculate if you use Plasia’s Bac Helper. If it’s the first shoe of the session often entering while the shoe is already under way I will just use the Helper to get up to speed and then I like to have a card when I bet cash, but if you enter the game correctly all the shoes vital statistics are right there and if it is opportune you can begin cash play and catch up on the card later. But it is a good tool for me online. I don’t know if I have the latest version but if you are saving your shoes to documents and it ends with a 4 or more my version of Plasia’s Bac Helper will not count the final run because it doesn’t end with an opposite so you have to manually change that in Documents if you want the 4 or more count to be accurate but other than that I almost always run it along side the board online. Often in the heat of a game I will forget to enter or fall well behind so I often find myself entering the whole shoe when it ends. That way I quickly check for errors in the various counts and can save the whole thing to documents with any color commentary if there was something memorable about the shoe, shuffle etc.

I know this shoe was played in a B&M casino but you can use Plasias Bac Helper to catalog your shoes in Documents and add any commentary if needed.

[Guest]

I tried uploading Kelvins shoe #2 that Anthony tackled and we played the same so that's fine. I end up with +5 at #40 but I think that is because of a math error at top of his replay and maybe there is another I didn't look further than that. Or perhaps we both have a math error's.

I have uploaded a lot of shoes in the past so I am wondering why when I tried uploading the dinky 184 kb jpeg it said I had exceeded my 5 mb limit. There was a little red dot next to the file that when I hovered over it tossed out a dialog box saying this so I gave up after a few attempts and resizing again but no go.

I have been having periodic problems when I log in via Explorer 8 brower forcing me to relog sometimes 2 or 3 times before I can enter the NOR forum. So I switched to Firefox and it works better so that's what I am on now, but still having the same trouble yesterday with the jpeg upload attempt.

I wrote a commentary yesterday to post with that shoe so I will just post that to get it off my desktop. Here goes something hopefully lol.

Alright, I have made my share of transcription errors, but to carry on with Kelvins shoe #2 from lasts nights attempt on my part when I started I just compared Kelvin's play #'s to MVS' card and it looked right so I jumped in but when I hit play #32 I figured it must be a transcription error but it was late so I just did it the way I would have (same as Anthony's as it turns out), but last night I did not finish playing the column and made a math error and thought I would finish the 2nd column +3 but now in actually playing it out I caught my mental math error and it is better than I thought. So now my score with corrected math stands at +5 at #40, which isn't so bad all things considered, however with the 4's coming on strong in the second column and the 2's reduced to just one in that column I would probably just quit there. Also the score had bounced off +3 four times before arriving at that single +5. But if I pressed into the 3rd column I hit +6 and then lost the 1,2 bet against the Bank side which dragged me down once again to +3.

If I was alert I would have quit there. If I did decide to go on I would only bet 1 unit because even though the 4's have been solid to this point the C/S count just hit a high minus of -4, the TB4L bets were outpacing the OTB4L in the prior column and that trend was continuing into the 3rd column. So taken as a whole, IF I didn't get out earlier I would make the one unit bet at #44 and losing just make +2 my bottom line and quit the shoe. I believe you said, once you hit +6 don't make a bet in that shoe that will take you below zero. So if you make the 4 unit bet on Bank and it stays a 5R you would have gone from +6 to -4 in five hands and the worst part is your running out of shoe and the SAP count isn't so great at 8, 8, 12,12...you might decide to just bet repeats but the 6 Ops that comes out spoils most of that.

I think be grateful for what you got in this shoe and cut and run at either +3, or +5. Besides when the shoe ends 2's are least common and the 6 Ops in the third is a mode buster.

At least that is how I see it. I would have definitely started OTB4L but as the shoe unfolded I would be looking for a good escape point in this one.

P.S. In the first two columns the most consistent event was the 4 Ops which I may have added a chip or two to that bet at #33 that confirms the 4 Ops (the count was also favorable and 1‘s running slightly below normal) but I like to do that with money already won in the shoe and at that point my score was zero so only the standard NOR bet.

Some of the counts online are much easier to calculate if you use Plasia’s Bac Helper. If it’s the first shoe of the session often entering while the shoe is already under way I will just use the Helper to get up to speed and then I like to have a card when I bet cash, but if you enter the game correctly all the shoes vital statistics are right there and if it is opportune you can begin cash play and catch up on the card later. But it is a good tool for me online. I don’t know if I have the latest version but if you are saving your shoes to documents and it ends with a 4 or more my version of Plasia’s Bac Helper will not count the final run because it doesn’t end with an opposite so you have to manually change that in Documents if you want the 4 or more count to be accurate but other than that I almost always run it along side the board online. Often in the heat of a game I will forget to enter or fall well behind so I often find myself entering the whole shoe when it ends. That way I quickly check for errors in the various counts and can save the whole thing to documents with any color commentary if there was something memorable about the shoe, shuffle etc.

I know this shoe was played in a B&M casino but you can use Plasias Bac Helper to catalog your shoes in Documents and add any commentary if needed.

Tom, can you get me some of whatever the hell you are smoking? It seems to give you unreal clarity. Jeez, if we could only think that fast in a real casino game.

[cheng6991]

Tom,

If you shrink down the size of the shoe you're able to post it.

Anthony

[TomM]

Tom, can you get me some of whatever the hell you are smoking? It seems to give you unreal clarity. Jeez, if we could only think that fast in a real casino game.

Ellis,

Not smoking anything these days, just schrooms lol. Seriously though I just do as you say with NOR. I wait for the strongest bias, try to get going as soon as I identify the best system and often settle for less than 10 units if the going gets tough. I still run SAP and enter a simple fractional dual Sap # on a standard vertical card and enter the direction of the OT vs. TBL every ten hands and keep the running C/S count. Other than that not much different than most. I try to keep in mind the bogey man of each system and look for overlap and try to select correctly the first time but keep an eye out for each systems nemesis.

Anthony,

I resized the image to the guidelines but I am still getting the red dot next to the uploaded file saying I do not have enough storage capacity left. I may have to contact Keith on that one. I don't know whats up with this forum and my Explorer 8 browser. Maybe have to check plug-ins or something else. I don't have any problems with Explorer 8 on anyplace else than here. I am using Firefox again tonight. I'll look into it when I have some time. Thanks.

[Guest]

Ellis,

Not smoking anything these days, just schrooms lol. Seriously though I just do as you say with NOR. I wait for the strongest bias, try to get going as soon as I identify the best system and often settle for less than 10 units if the going gets tough. I still run SAP and enter a simple fractional dual Sap # on a standard vertical card and enter the direction of the OT vs. TBL every ten hands and keep the running C/S count. Other than that not much different than most. I try to keep in mind the bogey man of each system and look for overlap and try to select correctly the first time but keep an eye out for each systems nemesis.

Anthony,

I resized the image to the guidelines but I am still getting the red dot next to the uploaded file saying I do not have enough storage capacity left. I may have to contact Keith on that one. I don't know whats up with this forum and my Explorer 8 browser. Maybe have to check plug-ins or something else. I don't have any problems with Explorer 8 on anyplace else than here. I am using Firefox again tonight. I'll look into it when I have some time. Thanks.

Often, especially after play 40, all you can do is "be grateful for what you got". New players soon get the feel for what we are talking about when we say "struggling shoe". So OK, you quit at play 45 with +4. Hey, that's $100 an hour! How many people make $100 an hour on this Earth compared to those who would like to.

New players still see it as a game and they are simply playing a game and don't yet know a good shoe vs a struggling shoe vs a bad shoe. They have no idea when to get out and may see getting out as cowardly.

Seasoned players no longer see it as a game but as a way to make money. Our biggest advantage over the dealer is we can decide how long the game is rather than allowing the casino to decide. When you think about it, that is a huge advantage. We can get out - the dealer can't. Nearly all shoes you were up at some point.

Sure, we play better than the masses and we usually have a better hit rate. But the BIG thing that separates us from the masses is we get out while they strongly tend to stay in until they lose. You'll see them go from +12 to -20 at the last hand. Ha, they are expecting some sort of last hand miracle. They might even bet 20 units! The idea is to avoid putting yourself in that position in the first place.

Sure, we got out at +10 when we COULD have got out at +12. Big whip! We also could have ended up at -20 just like them. And they end up paying far more commission than us to boot.

YOUR game ends where YOU say, not the casino. THAT is your biggest advantage. But it is only an advantage IF you take advantage of it.

[MVSeahog]

Often, especially after play 40, all you can do is "be grateful for what you got".

Sure, we got out at +10 when we COULD have got out at +12. Big whip! We also could have ended up at -20 just like them.

YOUR game ends where YOU say, not the casino.

Taking a small profit out of a difficult shoe becomes easier and easier the more times you do it!

If it's been a tough road to get to the last column, take the win!

MVS

[kelvin2009]

Hi all,

This is another few shoes which i need your opinions on it.

I start in play 10, with betting progression 123 and win 10 units on this shoe1, playing F mode3 but i feel that some improvement can be made on it whether there is a need to change system of play (from F to S40 etc).

Shoe1:

B1151212211111

P1121221213 (stop here where i win)

Sometimes the OR count of a shoe (see below shoe2) change from -ve to +ve. How do you handle such situation? Would you attempt to change the system of play?

The OR count went from -6 to +8.

Shoe2:

B513411221

P2211211112213

B31121112413

B42

[Guest]

Hi all,

This is another few shoes which i need your opinions on it.

I start in play 10, with betting progression 123 and win 10 units on this shoe1, playing F mode3 but i feel that some improvement can be made on it whether there is a need to change system of play (from F to S40 etc).

Shoe1:

B1151212211111

P1121221213 (stop here where i win)

Sometimes the OR count of a shoe (see below shoe2) change from -ve to +ve. How do you handle such situation? Would you attempt to change the system of play?

The OR count went from -6 to +8.

Shoe2:

B513411221

P2211211112213

B31121112413

B42

Again, I'll take the first shoe.

Kelvin, you did OK but as you guessed, did not take advantage of the situation.

First, I always start F right under an early 4 in a row so I would have begun at play 7 at the latest. But since F2 beats both 1's and 3's I would have begun this shoe at play 6 with f2. But then the shoe goes 26 plays W/O more than a 2 including a rare ZZ of 9. You lose your 1 bet at play 16. Play 16 would also put you in F3. We much prefer Mode 2 so we can advance our prog. Also our SS has vanished along with our minus count in spite of the 5 in a row. The last 5 plays actually favored Player. Now everything is pointing to S40 345 and NOTHING IS POINTING AT F. I would have started S40 234 at play 17 and then 345 at play18. Now you arrive at play 34 with a score of +31 with a 3 bet due. I would quit right there at play 34 with +31.

You know, we spend so much time on the tough shoes that we forget how to play the easy shoes. This is especially a mistake because if we are doing a proper table search we end up playing easy shoes more often than tough shoes.

But in a choppy shoe, I'll take S40 Mode 2 over F3 any day. The sooner the better.

Here is another important point I've mentioned before. Sometimes an early straight run in a super chop shoe screws us up by giving us a false OR count. The best thing to do is ignore the run as if it never occurred. Otherwise it can leave you screwed up for the rest of the shoe.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Guest