bacattack Posted January 11, 2012 Report Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ellis,When your considering which system to apply( playing a new shoe),within the first four decisions, if a 1/3 or 3/1 pattern develops, will you play F2 ? Is it always essential for the O/R count to also be a negative number for additional confirmation, prior to placing our first 1 unit bet? Please clarify..thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 11, 2012 Report Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ellis,When your considering which system to apply( playing a new shoe),within the first four decisions, if a 1/3 or 3/1 pattern develops, will you play F2 ? Is it always essential for the O/R count to also be a negative number for additional confirmation, prior to placing our first 1 unit bet? Please clarify..thanksWell, I would prefer to see a 113 or a 311 but I'll start at 31 or 13 with F IF that table has been historically streaky. Note that a 113 and a 311 both give you a 0 OR count. So I'm going by the events more than by a - count. We know that F2 beats both 1,1s and 3s but we also know that F performs well in many choppy situations. Yes, I'm hoping the count goes minus but I'm not necessarily going to wait around for that to happen.Now a 22 or 23 or 32 would be OTB4L. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted January 12, 2012 Users Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 gWell, I would prefer to see a 113 or a 311 but I'll start at 31 or 13 with F IF that table has been historically streaky. Note that a 113 and a 311 both give you a 0 OR count. So I'm going by the events more than by a - count. We know that F2 beats both 1,1s and 3s but we also know that F performs well in many choppy situations. Yes, I'm hoping the count goes minus but I'm not necessarily going to wait around for that to happen.Now a 22 or 23 or 32 would be OTB4L.Ellis,In your earlier guidance on quick starts based on first 4 plays, you suggested two single ones (i.e. a 11 start) would suggest S40. So if the shoe started 113, wouldn't you already be on S40 when the 3 came? Also, you answer to Kelvin2009 the other day on a shoe which started 115 was that you would be on F after the 3 iar. Again, it seems you would already be on S40 before the streak. Obviously, I am not understanding your point about the early start.way2fast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 12, 2012 Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 gEllis,In your earlier guidance on quick starts based on first 4 plays, you suggested two single ones (i.e. a 11 start) would suggest S40. So if the shoe started 113, wouldn't you already be on S40 when the 3 came? Also, you answer to Kelvin2009 the other day on a shoe which started 115 was that you would be on F after the 3 iar. Again, it seems you would already be on S40 before the streak. Obviously, I am not understanding your point about the early start.way2fast Right, we did that exercise at the PA seminar. How to start based on the first 4 plays confirmed.And right, 2 1's in 4 plays would signal us to start with S40. this would be a 121, a 211 or a 112 confirmed. But remember, I said a 3 changes everything and we might want to wait another play.There are 3 different starting situations:1. We are getting in mid shoe after finding the most biased table using the tote boards. Here we are well into the shoe and that is our normal play start for the session.2. We have already played that shoe color, know what the bias was, and we are just looking for confirmation. Here we can go by the first 4 plays. This is also true when we can look at a players card to get that information. But if the shoe does't start with the same bias as last time we'll want to see some more plays.3. The casino has only one table available for us to play and the dealer is waiting for us to bet. Here we do the PB bet thing for the first 4 plays.The mistake I'm trying to correct is waiting 15 or 20 plays EVERY shoe and watching the best part of the shoe go by before you start.We NEVER need to sit there and watch 20 or so plays go by. Either the bias revealed itself long ago or the table isn't worth playing. But too many of our players do that all because I mentioned 15 or 20 play tote boards. Now we have players thinking they must ALWAYS wait that long. Biases don't last forever. We can often get our +10 in the first column or so IF we start soon enough. Many of the shoes posted here the player got in trouble by waiting too long. The longer you wait the more the bias is apt to change. But we've had players watch 7 in a row ZZs go by simply because the shoe hasn't gotten to 20 plays yet. Most of the other players start at play 1 and stay to the last play. That is already 2 major mistakes. But I don't want OUR players over correcting by waiting forever to start. When the system reveals itself, start. If it doesn't reveal itself, don't play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nizm0racer Posted January 12, 2012 Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 Ellis,Can you please explain the possible starts at play 5 for s40 and otbl? I'm confused between the two because I read one of your posts stating just having a 2 confirmed in the 1st 4 would signal OT but here it shows if you have 2 1s confirmed or 112 or 211 or 121 it's s40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 12, 2012 Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 Ellis,Can you please explain the possible starts at play 5 for s40 and otbl? I'm confused between the two because I read one of your posts stating just having a 2 confirmed in the 1st 4 would signal OT but here it shows if you have 2 1s confirmed or 112 or 211 or 121 it's s40.Well that is usually true except when you also have a 1,1. Remember that OTB4L does not particularly like a 1,1 because it automatically puts you in Mode 3 and we prefer Mode 2. So a 112 or 211 is definitely S40 M2. A 121 is about equal for both S40 and OTB4L so you might wait one more play. Then a 1211 is S40 and a 122 is OTB4L.This all changed slightly once we said that we prefer to always start in Mode 2. In the old rules we always started in Mode 3 because that gave you the highest event win percentage. But then we realized that ABS (Average Bet Size) supercedes event win %.Therefore, any time we have a choice between Mode 2 in one system or Mode 3 in another, today we always choose the Mode 2 system because it keeps our bets lower while affording us the opportunity to advance our progs.See, we weren't concerned about 1,1's when we were always starting OTB4L in Mode 3 because OTB4L M3 beats 1,1's. But then we saw the error of our ways. We need to start everything in Mode 2 when the Mode is still unconfirmed. Then let the 3rd bet rule determine Mode from there. Unfortunately, we made that change after the PA seminar.Of course a 111 confirmed is always S40. By confirmed I mean the next play has occurred so we know it is a 111 and not a 112.In the PA exercise I was showing how you COULD start based on the first 4 plays confirmed. I was not trying to say you MUST start based on the first 4 plays.Also recognize that the first 4 plays CONFIRMED means you would start at play 6, not 5 because you need play 5 to confirm the first 4.Also recognize that the first play of the shoe is pretty much meaningless because we don't know if it was an Opposite or Repeat.I'm thinking maybe we should have a table based on Os and Rs for the first 4 plays. The table would be pretty short because the first play is neither so our table would start at play 2. As I see it the possible shoe starts would only be:OOOOORORO ORRRRR RRORORROOThen if we add the fifth confirming play we are only adding 8 more possibilities.The only thing I have against doing that is that I would rather have you understand the reasoning behind the shoe starts rather than memorizing 16 possible starts.Also, I'm afraid some would use such a chart in place of a proper table search so it might end up doing more harm than good.I'm thinking we might be better off spending time on tote board reading instead.What do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zebra Posted January 12, 2012 Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm thinking we might be better off spending time on tote board reading instead.I think that would be great. I find it is the best tool I have in my arsenal.No need to wait for a set number of plays - they have already been made.Lots of 1's - S40Lots of 2's - OTB4LLots of runs - FOf course many shoes are not so cut and dried. What do you look for on the boards?Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeystyle Posted January 12, 2012 Report Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think that would be great. I find it is the best tool I have in my arsenal.No need to wait for a set number of plays - they have already been made.Lots of 1's - S40Lots of 2's - OTB4LLots of runs - FOf course many shoes are not so cut and dried. What do you look for on the boards?PaulI believe each day I inch along towards making a bit more progress in my my Baccarat play by reading certain items on this forum. I just got back from playing in AC yesterday and last night. The first shoe I played was where I had spotted a board prior to sitting down and the first 20 decisions were of a streaky variety. The next twenty was more of 1's and 2's and a 3 snuck in the there. I played it SB40 with first six decisions I bet on. Hit them all and lost 7th. Nailed a 2 unit on next bet. sure I could have stayed on. Have 7 units, knowing that 2/3 shoe has gone by already. I will take it. What happen was everyone left the table at that point to seek another one. I know some of the veterans like a table by themselves. But, from past experiences I don't fare well. So, I left and went to another casino. I did more board watching and I notice again the bias change in a shoe. It was a streaky shoe in the first 17 decisions but then went 2's dominant the next 15. That is when I jumped in playing OT4BL. Took me close to remainder of the shoe but I did make another 6. I realize the goal is try to find a shoe that is biased and no more than 20 decisions go by. In addition to starting off a shoe and trying to get 10 units by the first 20-30 decisions. We want to do this before shoe bias has disintegrated. Should a case be made to attempt to play when jumping in mid shoe (say in the 30 something decision range),where one bias has gone by, and new one has started? This becomes reflective in the change of the O/R count as the shoe progressed. Also, when looking at the board and more than 20 decisions has gone by, does looking at the outcome of the last say 10 decisions looking for a major dominance between Player and Banker work for any of you?SAP helped me in a night session where there was a definable gap in occurrences. Things don't go always go so nicely for me and as Paul said many shoes are not cut and dried. This is where i need to improve mostly on.CiaoJoey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 14, 2012 Report Share Posted January 14, 2012 I think that would be great. I find it is the best tool I have in my arsenal.No need to wait for a set number of plays - they have already been made.Lots of 1's - S40Lots of 2's - OTB4LLots of runs - FOf course many shoes are not so cut and dried. What do you look for on the boards?Paul1's = 402s = OTB4L3+s = FThat is pretty much it in a nut shell Paul if you also add Strong Side and Consistency. I think it is a mistake to make Tote Board reading more complex than that. We want to be able to do it Quickly W/O breaking stride down the isle. We are looking for a glaring bias.This is why it is so important to know the NORMAL frequency of those events.Normally1's = 1 every 4 plays2s = 1 every 8 plays3+s = 1 every 8 playsHow many are you seeing because they are seldom all running normal. That is the whole basis of SAP.At first, tote boards are very collidescopic for new players. That is why it is so difficult to get players to actually go through this table selection process. Maverick, for instance, did't buy this. Look what happened to him. Biases is the ONLY way to beat this game. If you leave that part out you are just throwing your money away. I think he proved that much the hard way.You know, when I played those 6 shoes with Dave in PA and AC, I spent a total of less than 10 minutes on table selection. But that ten minutes got us a 26% PA which is undoubtedly a world record for 6 consecutive shoes. 5 minutes can make a huge difference in your session results. Then the idea is to get in and get out before the bias changes. They usually don't last forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 14, 2012 Report Share Posted January 14, 2012 (edited) I believe each day I inch along towards making a bit more progress in my my Baccarat play by reading certain items on this forum. I just got back from playing in AC yesterday and last night. The first shoe I played was where I had spotted a board prior to sitting down and the first 20 decisions were of a streaky variety. The next twenty was more of 1's and 2's and a 3 snuck in the there. I played it SB40 with first six decisions I bet on. Hit them all and lost 7th. Nailed a 2 unit on next bet. sure I could have stayed on. Have 7 units, knowing that 2/3 shoe has gone by already. I will take it. What happen was everyone left the table at that point to seek another one. I know some of the veterans like a table by themselves. But, from past experiences I don't fare well. So, I left and went to another casino. I did more board watching and I notice again the bias change in a shoe. It was a streaky shoe in the first 17 decisions but then went 2's dominant the next 15. That is when I jumped in playing OT4BL. Took me close to remainder of the shoe but I did make another 6. I realize the goal is try to find a shoe that is biased and no more than 20 decisions go by. In addition to starting off a shoe and trying to get 10 units by the first 20-30 decisions. We want to do this before shoe bias has disintegrated. Should a case be made to attempt to play when jumping in mid shoe (say in the 30 something decision range),where one bias has gone by, and new one has started? This becomes reflective in the change of the O/R count as the shoe progressed. Also, when looking at the board and more than 20 decisions has gone by, does looking at the outcome of the last say 10 decisions looking for a major dominance between Player and Banker work for any of you?SAP helped me in a night session where there was a definable gap in occurrences. Things don't go always go so nicely for me and as Paul said many shoes are not cut and dried. This is where i need to improve mostly on.CiaoJoeyJoey, I don't know if I should be telling you this but back in the mid "90s AC had this trick they would pull. They shuffled 4 decks for chop and the other 4 for streak. Then they took half the streak pile, then half the chop pile, then the other half of the streak pile, then the other half of the chop pile and put them in the dealer shoe accordingly. The result was we would get a choppy collumn then a streaky collumn then chop then streak. All we had to do was figure out which the first col was. So we would simply play one column Opposites and the next repeats and so forth. Keith and I won nearly every shoe for nearly a year this way so AC dropped that particular card prep technique.So, I'm wondering if..... Edited January 14, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 14, 2012 Report Share Posted January 14, 2012 In tote board reading it is also good to know what events are poison to each of the 3 systems:S40 does not like straight runs longer than 7.S40 does not like intermixed 3 and 4s but can take one or the other alone.OTB4L does not like double and triple 1's intermixed but can take one or the other.OTB4L does not like 4s and 5s intermixed but can take one or the other.F does not like 2's and 3s intermixed on the weak side but can take one or the other.Recognize that the stronger the Strong Side is the less likely you are to get intermixed 2s and 3s on the weak side.If you know the likes and dislikes of each system, tote board reading becomes a cinch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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