Keith Smith Posted January 16, 2012 Report Share Posted January 16, 2012 Here is one of the shoes from yesterday at Hollywood that I played. It is quite a contrast to what we are seeing there when we did the seminar. All the shoes I played yesterday we F or OTB4L. While we advocate the top bet of three I am doing much better in the long run with a up 1 down 1 betting strategy. They have the absolute worst Baccarat cards at Hollywood CasinoRegardsKEith Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 16, 2012 Report Share Posted January 16, 2012 Here is one of the shoes from yesterday at Hollywood that I played. It is quite a contrast to what we are seeing there when we did the seminar. All the shoes I played yesterday we F or OTB4L. While we advocate the top bet of three I am doing much better in the long run with a up 1 down 1 betting strategy. They have the absolute worst Baccarat cards at Hollywood CasinoRegardsKEithWhoops, I guess that makes 2 guys betting U1D1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerryczy Posted January 16, 2012 Report Share Posted January 16, 2012 wow! score from +7 down to -7 within 7 hands, then +3 > -10 > +10. If I will play like this I will have heart disease. BTW what's your stop lose? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MVSeahog Posted January 17, 2012 Report Share Posted January 17, 2012 Love that finishing run.6-5-4-3-2-1.Nice!MVS Quote What's an MVSeahog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 17, 2012 Report Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) That's how we used to play before NOR - LONG before NOR. Recognize there is no table selection at Hollywood.Keith had called me to tell me the table was basically choppy except for occassional very long runs so we agreed on OTB4L except stay on the straight runs.He would have been a whole lot better off had he started OTB4L correctly and in Mode 2 as we now do and make his only deviation staying on straight runs until you lose.Check it out. Had he done that he would have scored +18 with a highest bet of 3 and a 39% P.A. with no heroics necessary.So again, I rest my case. Edited January 17, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witchygal Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Went through the score card and saw that Keith actually chose to stay mode 3 for all 4 times even though he changed from OTB4L to S40 and then to F. I noticed that he did not quit the shoe as well even at -10. From a +7 to a -10 in a mixed shoe........Does this defies NOR standards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 (edited) Went through the score card and saw that Keith actually chose to stay mode 3 for all 4 times even though he changed from OTB4L to S40 and then to F. I noticed that he did not quit the shoe as well even at -10. From a +7 to a -10 in a mixed shoe........Does this defies NOR standards?Yes, for sure. I already mentioned how it should have been played to NOR standards.So OK we knew that the table was spitting out long runs. So fine, NOR allows for that by simply staying on runs until you lose. But from there the NOR 3rd bet rule works perfectly in this shoe for determining Mode giving you a highest bet of 3 and +18 units W/O having to resort to U1D1. Other than staying on the runs all he had to was follow the manual. No switches were necessary.I was just trying to be polite about it.I was also trying to change the subject. But nothing much gets by you does it Witchy. Good call! Edited January 19, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witchygal Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yes, for sure. I already mentioned how it should have been played to NOR standards.So OK we knew that the table was spitting out long runs. So fine, NOR allows for that by simply staying on runs until you lose. But from there the NOR 3rd bet rule works perfectly in this shoe for determining Mode giving you a highest bet of 3 and +18 units W/O having to resort to U1D1. Other than staying on the runs all he had to was follow the manual. No switches were necessary.I was just trying to be polite about it.I was also trying to change the subject. But nothing much gets by you does it Witchy. Good call!Hah Ellis i was just trying to make sure i am learning the correct way. As you have mentioned before, there is no future in switching after you decided on a system. So i was wondering why Keith had switched 3 times in that shoe which just ran a short 36 plays. The aggressive progression also scare me. I would not bet a 3456 at this stage in time. Of course i know that both Keith and yourself are experience players and perhaps he have his reason for making those bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 I got one table at Hollywood casino and sometimes it only has 6 chairs. I wanted to play a bit and besides, who can learn anything from easy shoes. I was playing for the most part up 1 down 1 which will have more variance. If you match the system with the shoe you can pretty much bet anyway you want and win. It wasn't real hard betting on an 8 in a row. I wish I was betting up as you win. Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finas Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hi Keith,We all like practical and real shoe. I learned a lot by looking at the scorecard on how you play and when to switch. A picture is worth a thousand words.Thanks for sharing your expertise.Ferdi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Also too while it would be easy to say I should have started with otb4l, i saw the shoes before that one which is what I based it on. I probably could have made a better start decision but hey Im playing for real in a casino. You have to have some tolerance for mistakes and adjustments. It doesn't matter if you end up winning That situation is passed, some will translate to another situation but some won't. According to what I saw in the previous shoes, it should have stayed choppy it didn't. I myself can't play with limited table selection and play tight to -8 and 1,2,3 I would never get to play. In Vegas yes I'm the first one to say ok we are at +8 were outta here ( and I was), but I don't have those conditions here. So i increase the risk and the progression to etch out wins. Christ Kit we have been down a 100 units and came all the way back and then some when playing in turning stone and foxwoods. From those experiences it is very hard for the casino to beat you if you have the system matched and play up 1 down 1 or 2. Ron and myself proved it's hard for them to beat you if you play the same system and have a bank roll and just keep going at them. It takes balls. But in a non table selection situation I would say you can expect to change systems more often. If you have table selection cherry pick your spots with NOR.K Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 There is no such thing as a bad win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witchygal Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 It wasn't real hard betting on an 8 in a row. I wish I was betting up as you win.What if it isn't 8 in a row? The 3456 could have been -18! Wooh.....you mean you can predict the future? I myself can't play with limited table selection and play tight to -8 and 1,2,3 I would never get to play. In Vegas yes I'm the first one to say ok we are at +8 were outta here ( and I was), but I don't have those conditions here. So i increase the risk and the progression to etch out wins. Christ Kit we have been down a 100 units and came all the way back and then some when playing in turning stone and foxwoods. From those experiences it is very hard for the casino to beat you if you have the system matched and play up 1 down 1 or 2. Ron and myself proved it's hard for them to beat you if you play the same system and have a bank roll and just keep going at them. It takes balls. But in a non table selection situation I would say you can expect to change systems more often. If you have table selection cherry pick your spots with NOR.So you mean we need to have a substantial bankroll when we play. If the bankroll is too small, we will not be able to fight back again. Hmm maybe you are right. If possible can you post more hard shoes examples? As over here there are getting lesser and lesser bias shoes. They are mostly mixed. A few of us find it difficult to play and come out as a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 What if it isn't 8 in a row? The 3456 could have been -18! Wooh.....you mean you can predict the future? So you mean we need to have a substantial bankroll when we play. If the bankroll is too small, we will not be able to fight back again. Hmm maybe you are right. If possible can you post more hard shoes examples? As over here there are getting lesser and lesser bias shoes. They are mostly mixed. A few of us find it difficult to play and come out as a winner.I don't think it always helps to have an oversized bankroll.It can cause you to play too lazy and skip proper table selection and stay in shoe too long and blow through stop losses.A small bank roll forces you to play by the book and do everything right while obeying stop losses.As far as changing biases, this is not always bad. Casinos strive to keep the upper hand and are always coming up with a new strategy.I already mentioned the chop, streak, chop, streak shuffle A.C. came up with. Keith and I and a few of the members killed that shoe type by switching strategy at the top of each column. If the last col. was choppy we played the next col streaky. This worked so well that the casinos dropped that strategy.You need to always be alert to the current casino strategy. What kind of shoe is it producing? And play accordingly.NOR will soundly beat most casinos most of the time. But it does not like changing biases. It is rare but when that is what you are seeing you need to play accordingly. In that situation you don't wait for the bias to change. You anticipate that it will change and beat the shoe to the punch. Casinos like to present a moving target. Our job is to decipher their latest strategy and anticipate it.When in total doubt, play OTB4L as your base. That system can maneuver to handle almost anything.But, given enough tables to choose from you can almost always find a strong and consistent bias. I'm only talking here about those times when you can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 (edited) Well of course you have to watch casino strategy, but I disagree with not having a substantial bankroll. Dave from I'm spirit ask me why I just play quarters I told him because at that level they will never get me or hurt me to a point where I couldn't play. What happened to Mark M who had a huge bankroll to play. If he would have stayed at reasonable stakes instead of getting greedy he would still be in the game making money. When you play as a pro you shouldn't get greedy, when you work at a job you expect x amount of dollars a week. You don't get a raise every week.And this also brings up a good point of why you don't make all the money you need in a few shots. Because they will get you if you try that. If you try to make $1,000,000 in one shot they are going to do everything they can to ball you up and they will succeed. In addition the tremendous pressure you put on yourself is almost unbearable. Play for green and take your +8 and +10s man they add up. Build the bankroll not to up the stakes but so you can take some of it out and make it more units so you can always play. Edited January 21, 2012 by Keith Smith Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2012 Report Share Posted January 21, 2012 (edited) Well of course you have to watch casino strategy. But I disagree with not having a substantial bankroll. Dave from I'm spirit ask me why I just play quarters I told him because at that level they will never get me or hurt me to a point where I couldn't,t play look what happened to Mark M.s huge bankroll to play if he would have stayed at reasonable stakes instead of getting greedy he.d still be in the game making money. When you play as a pro u shouldn,t get greedy look when you work at a job yu expect x amount of dollars a week you don't get a raise every week.Ha, I AM thinking about Mark!But you know a whole lot more about how to dig yourself out of a hole than these guys do, including Mark. We also have BJ to fall back on. These guys don't. For them I think it is better to stay out of deep holes in the first place. That is what NOR is all about.Mark finally dug himself into a hole so deep he couldn't get out of. He didn't only lose his own money. And he didn't do that by betting higher when he was winning as we teach. He did it by betting higher when he was losing as he taught! He put it right in his manual. "When you lose a shoe double your unit." That makes for a very short gambling career. And it was! It might work for a while, but.......Neither can you play under funded. You cant play scared or with the milk money.But you can't just keep betting higher and higher when you are losing and if you don't have the money in your pocket you won't be tempted. The time to bet higher is when you are winning and that is what we teach. That is what NOR teaches. Everybody else gets this wrong, including Mark. They play backwards. Many people cannot be trusted in a casino with more money than they need in their pocket. So why risk putting them in that spot?????The idea is to NOT PLAY until you find a table that looks easy to beat. From there, OK you get 3 chances. If that isn't enough you shouldn't be playing.Look at all these sites that demand you have 500 units or more. That is a disaster looking for a place to happen! If 25 units is not enough, chances are excellent you aren't going to win that day. But there will be other days, unless......Many of our players have been there, done that. That is why they are HERE!There will be days when the casino has it together but YOU don't. You just can't win that day and the more you play..... I want our guys to be on their way home. Edited January 21, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted January 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think that while you can start with a small bankroll yes but you have to protect yourself from the human factor. Were going to make mistakes, and play bad games, make wrong choices and bets. Your goal should not be to keep increasing your bankroll to up the stakes but to increase your bankroll so you can make your risk of ruin next to null. We given you the best possible chance of succeeding now keep improving on that by adding to your bank and units. Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witchygal Posted January 21, 2012 Report Share Posted January 21, 2012 Hi Keith,So may i ask how many units did you brought with you before playing that shoe in Hollywood? If you had lose the 3456 (total -18) would you have tried another shoe with your left over bankroll or you will just go home? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2012 Report Share Posted January 21, 2012 (edited) I think that while you can start with a small bankroll yes but you have to protect yourself from the human factor. Were going to make mistakes, and play bad games, make wrong choices and bets. Your goal should not be to keep increasing your bankroll to up the stakes but to increase your bankroll so you can make your risk of ruin next to null. We given you the best possible chance of succeeding now keep improving on that by adding to your bank and units.Right, we talked about the bad days where either due to the casino or due to yourself, you simply can't do anything right. You need to give up on that session. Maybe later.But, you also have good days when you just can't do anything wrong. NOW, you are playing on their money. That is a whole different story. THAT is what the 234 and 345 are for. Those make big money FAST. Your next step is to raise your unit but test the water with your bigger units. Good conditions don't last forever so we need to strike while the iron is hot but not over reach. You may very well be on your way to a hundred unit session so why keep them small units? EXPLOIT! Sometimes I think we talk too much about the bad days and not enough about what to do on your good days. Casinos don't always have it together. They have bad days too. It's our duty to make their bad days worse!I remind you about our player who made 425 units in ONE shoe!Great play, right?EXCEPT it should have occurred to her to go from green to black SOMEWHERE in that shoe, like after the first 100 units. Think about it. She could have raised the stakes at ZERO risk while quadrupling the reward!Ha, NO, I didn't tell her that.What was she playing?Based on the ridiculously streaky prior shoe she was betting an up as you win Fibonci on repeats up 1 on a win, down 2 on a loss. The minus OR count ended up in the -30's someplace. Hey, casinos are human. They make mistakes. I'll bet some heads rolled after that one.BTW, is there anybody who still thinks casino Baccarat is completely random? That the casino has no control?What is an U1D2 Fib up as you win? Every bet in your prog is the total of the last two bets. A true Fib (Ha, what a term) is1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 100, then you stay at 100 until you lose. Most people play it W/O the initial 1 bet. That is what she was doing. For instance, even starting from scratch with an 8,7 you are already at the 100 bet. But in a shoe that streaky, the only time you are likely to be at the 1 bet level is in the first few plays of the shoe. Once you are at the 21 level a 5 in a row puts you at the 100 unit bet. The normal $10,000 table max (where she was) lets you play black!So what gets you to the 21 bet level? About a -10 OR count. We see those all the time but back then we saw it even more.What was her name? Sherri Pelzman. I'm sure some of you know her. Ask her about it but don't say anything about black.What was her starting bank?Who gives a shit but it could have been as low as $100. You are always betting winnings.How much did she win that shoe.? Over $10,000 after commission. What did she do the next shoe. She didn't. She went straight to the bar. Same thing I would have done. You can't play for shit right after something like that.So, did I ever do that?I've got to the 34 bet many, many times but I always lost the next bet. Except last time I quit when I won the 34. Of course, sure as hell I would have finally won the damn 55 bet. What happened after that?I have no idea. I was at the bar by then up $9000+ in one shoe. Edited January 21, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted January 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2012 Play for your stakes and stay there you are most vulnerable when you raise the stakes. Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witchygal Posted January 22, 2012 Report Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hi Keith,So may i ask how many units did you brought with you before playing that shoe in Hollywood? If you had lose the 3456 (total -18) would you have tried another shoe with your left over bankroll or you will just go home?Play for your stakes and stay there you are most vulnerable when you raise the stakes.Hi Keith,I believe your direct answer will be a good reference for all of us newbies. Kindly reply to the above when you can.Thanks,Witchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted January 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2012 I bought in for $1000 dollars all green. Stop loss, since I only have 1 table if I lose three shoes in a row I would probably quit. I doubt I have ever hit a 1000 down at green, at least I really can't remember when. Quote Join us in Vegas for the Back to Vegas Seminar at the Crescent Dealer's School Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witchygal Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thanks Keith. That's a reasonable amount to buy in. I guess we have to be "lucky" at the shoes then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 (edited) Thanks Keith. That's a reasonable amount to buy in. I guess we have to be "lucky" at the shoes then.I buy in at $500 green and when Keith is playing with me, he does the same. But I know that only 8 of those 20 units are in play before I change tables. I usually change tables at -4 or -5.But, like Keith says, Hollywood usually has only one table open so there is no Bac table to change to. I can't imagine Keith playing to a -40. Jeez, he's already asking me to play partners BJ when he's down 2 units. And I usually relent at -3 or -4. We can always check out the Bac table later. Hollywood really sucks for Bac but it is a pretty good BJ casino at their $25 BJ tables because they get so little play.BJ is the opposite of Bac in one respect: In BJ the more random the cards are the better off you are. Edited January 24, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't know about Asia but here BJ is far more popular than Bac. There are 200 BJ players for every Bac player so every casino has far more BJ tables than Bac tables. Many casinos here have no Bac tables at all and Bac is still illegal in many states. Here it is a very good idea to know both games.Keith and I are never forced to play bad Bac conditions. We'll simply go play BJ instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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