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How will you play these shoes


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This afternoon I played 2 shoes on Dublinbet(6 decks), all lose money.

How will you play these shoes?

shoe 1:

P251222411

B3122174

P11112115111

shoe 2:

B112211624

P4221331211

P1322331

Well in the first shoe standard OTB4L M2 starting at plays 3 or 4 takes you up to a quick +7 or 8 but then back to +1 just as quick so I would have quit with +1. I don't see any way to improve on that.

The 2nd shoe is clearly S40.

Starting at play 3 M2 you get to +8 twice in the first col. You might think about getting out at +8 since you have now hit your highest score twice. (per the manual) But if you stay in you hit +10 at play 29. If you stay after that you hit a +12 after some aggravation. but I wouldn't have stayed past +10.

The only trick here is after you lose your second OTR bet at play 21, you would not attempt a second OTR bet at play 25. I suspect that might be where you went wrong. But after surviving a 6 and a 44, I would be looking for any reason to get out. +10 is a good reason.

Personally, I don't play on the internet except once in a while I play a shoe for students over the phone. I just can't see giving up your biggest advantage - table selection. I'd rather make the 3 hour drive to Tunica. Even there, table selection is not great but it is better than nothing.

Convenience is not something I consider when playing for money.

Edited by Guest
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Thanks. I think my problem is the timing of get in and get out of shoe.

I tend to get in very quick. But that is because I almost always have a pretty good clue of what is going on. Call it casino savvy or whatever. For instance I know that new cards will almost always be S40 or OTB4L and almost never F. On the other hand the more crowded the casino is and the more play those cards have seen the more likely it is to be F.

On the other hand I tend to usually be the first to get out of a shoe. I try to explain it in the cash mgt chapter in the manual but it is not a thing that can be fully explained or where we can apply hard rules for every situation. It is more of a feel you develop over time.

It is not something you can really practice at home where you can already see the rest of the shoe. And we don't all have someone to read us a shoe play by play.

Not everyone has our interest in gaming. Most people think we are somewhat deranged. I learned the hard way if you want to clear out a bar real fast, just start talking Blackjack. You'll be talking to yourself real quick. Geez, even at a casino bar!

Not that I go to a lot of bars. Who, ME?

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You know, I've played with a lot of our members over time and those members have reason to have a lot of confidence in me.

But most of you don't know me from Adam. In the heat of battle, where I told you to bet 3 OTR, you may find yourself losing all confidence especially if the whole table is on the other side.

I read the ten best BJ books before I started playing only to find out the hard way that those authors had no idea of what they were talking about. There is a huge difference between what happens in a real casino vs. what happens on some author's computer. It wasn't long before I realized I could write a BJ book far better than any I ever read. So I did, and that book, NBJ, has outsold all other BJ books put together.

So when I tell you something or write something I want you to know that it is based on real casino experience. But even telling you that won't save you from a loss of confidence right at the crucial moment. The only thing that cures that is experience.

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Today I played two super bias shoes on Dublinbet. All got stop win at +20.

one super streak shoe like this:

B261641

B3417212

P13121231

I start played F2 from hand 7 1-2-3 prog. then up to 2-3-4.

second shoe was great OTB4L shoe:

B1123221221111

B216222221

B13312113

I start play OTB4L Mode 2 at hand 10 1-2-3 prog. then up to 2-3-4.

Super!

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Today I played two super bias shoes on Dublinbet. All got stop win at +20.

one super streak shoe like this:

B261641

B3417212

P13121231

I start played F2 from hand 7 1-2-3 prog. then up to 2-3-4.

second shoe was great OTB4L shoe:

B1123221221111

B216222221

B13312113

I start play OTB4L Mode 2 at hand 10 1-2-3 prog. then up to 2-3-4.

Super!

Good job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Well. in the first shoe, in spite of the high+ OR count, you would have been better off with OTB4L as signaled by the first confirmed 2. Or with F due to the Strong Side Player. F particularly likes Player to be the SS because it reduces commission. Remember, F can beat chop too, especially ZZ runs. You had an early 2 to 1 SS. Whenever we see that, it is usually best to switch to F. SS takes precedence over everything else. I haven't looked at the 2nd shoe yet. But this one I would have started OTB4L early, then switched to F.

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Confused about system selection here:for the first 7 hands like 121111 definitely will play S40 and won't play OTB4L just because had a comfirmed 2 and definitely won't play F just because had a 2 to 1 SS.

Well. in the first shoe, in spite of the high+ OR count, you would have been better off with OTB4L as signaled by the first confirmed 2. Or with F due to the Strong Side Player. F particularly likes Player to be the SS because it reduces commission. Remember, F can beat chop too, especially ZZ runs. You had an early 2 to 1 SS. Whenever we see that, it is usually best to switch to F. SS takes precedence over everything else. I haven't looked at the 2nd shoe yet. But this one I would have started OTB4L early, then switched to F.
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I feel more and more uncomfortable playing F2.3 as an only streak system on NOR. I think it just for SS shoe and long streak run and long ZZ run. often times you just play one hand wrong will lead you stop out of the shoe.another problem is when you won 3 hands in a row you score +3 and when you lost 3 hands in a row you got -6,it's unbalance. For example, I played one super streak shoe yesterday got stop out because of change mode 2 to mode 3 at wrong time.

I think for balance strength shoe mixed with long streak runs and 2s,3s, it's perfect RD2 shoe. what do you think?

B14135213

B1281242

B121323321

p.aspx?u=v20_p13_photo_1201230331179386_0.jpg

Edited by jerryczy
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Hi jerryczy,

I agree with you just one hand in the wrong side with F2.3, we are in -6. Many times, I just wait, cause don't know whether it comes back or just go to the other side.

Also I have tried before, first I use RD and the second time I use F2/3 (or vice-versa). You have to try and see. Some shoes work and some don't. It's very hard to bet streaky shoes right at the beginning.

I think it's a good idea adding RD in NOR, but only Ellis can tell.

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Well, Jerry and finas and core, it took considerable thought but there is a sound mathematical reason to have a fear of F. But we also have to be careful we don't jump out of the frying pan into the fire. Try to follow my reasoning here.

Playing any of the 3 NOR systems we are really only at risk when we attempt to bet OTR. When you think about it, the only way we can lose is by losing OTR bets. If we win our OTR bets we win the shoe plain and simple.

Agreed?

Therefore we can say that OTR bets cause fear and rightfully so.

But the 3 systems do NOT generate OTR bets equally.

F produces the most OTR bets because OTR bets are decided by the disparity between 2s and 3s.

S40 is decided by 3s vs 4s which only occur half as often.

OTB4L is decided by 4s vs 5s cutting the occurrence of OTR in half yet again.

So F is the most scary while OTB4L is the least scary. And they aren't close.

F can generate 4 times as many high risk bets as OTB4L.

This might explain why I tend to like OTB4L shoes the most and actually look for OTB4L tables first. And also why I go OTB4L already when the only evidence is a confirmed 2 in the first 4 plays. And often I don't even wait for the confirmation when OTB4L has been doing well at that table in prior shoes.

Maybe there was a mathematical reason for my madness that I had simply not isolated, exposed and examined before. But I knew it subconsciously.

This would particularly explain why F is more scary in chop shoes than in streak shoes. Chop shoes simply have more 2s and 3s than streaky shoes.

Guys, I've got to run to a Doctor's appointment. But I have more to say about this and RD1 vs RD2 so I'll finish my thoughts when I return in a separate post.

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Well at a glance without betting real money is easy but since you ask If I saw that show start I probably would have bet straight repeats.

You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

Need Information Messenger

https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

司奇士

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Well at a glance without betting real money is easy but since you ask If I saw that show start I probably would have bet straight repeats.

Right, that is close to what Jerry is saying. He was getting 2/3s repeats and RD 2 bets straight repeats until you have 2 1's in a row.

BTW, nothing serious at the Doc's, just my 3 month check up.

Looking over what I said this morning about F, it really isn't as bad as I made it sound because with F you are only concerned about the 2s vs 3s ON ONE SIDE which cuts the problem in half. Plus the stronger sided a shoe is, the fewer 2s and 3s you can expect on the weak side. So risk begins to even out among the 3 NOR systems but on average, never gets completely even.

But here is what I mean about jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

RD1,2 is exactly the same as RD Modes 1 and 2. Now we are looking at the disparity to two even more common events - single vs double 1's. So if you are looking to decrease OTR bets, RD won't do that. RD will increase OTR bets. That is why we dropped it out of NOR. Remember RD has a problem with 1's and 1's are half of all events.

Neither can we go to Maverick's RDN because that makes RD lose to the 212s which is composed of the two most common events in Baccarat. Kiss of death!

But, lets talk about what we COULD do.

We could go to RD Modes 2 and 3 which would make it precisely the exact opposite of the current S40 2,3.

So what might be the advantage of doing this?

Well if S40 is losing, RD2,3 MUST win at the exact same rate 40 is losing at. Would this not make system selection easier? and clearer? R2,3 would also incur OTR bets at the exact same rate as S40.

It's food for thought, isn't it!

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"R2,3 would also incur OTR bets". That means ZZ run, right?

RD1: ZZ run of 3;

RD2: ZZ run of 4;

RD3: ZZ run of 5

Then go from there on the ZZ run?

Right, S40 2,3 bets opposites and then goes OTR after 2 (Mode 2) or 3 (Mode 3) losing bets which means it bets on straight runs after they go either 3 or 4.

RD 2,3 would do the same exact thing in reverse.

It would bet Repeats and go on ZZ runs after 2 or 3 losing bets.

We might even want to add RD1. I don't know yet.

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