Stealth F22 Raptor for the USAF - Stealth F2/F3 "Ellis SS" for NOR/SAP players!!!

[daytrader77459]

Hello, Ellis, BTC Members,

In my previous posts, I had stated that Way2Fast and I had been seeing at least 75% of all shoes across 2 major casinos being at least OBL type shoes during the playing hours of 11am to 1am primarily. I do not play the 3am – 11am shifts.

However, over the past two days, I played at a 3rd casino in qualifying for a large tournament. Here, I ran into a couple of very specific shoe types that led me to review and refine further certain internal issues I had with F/Strong Side type shoes vs OBL shoes (when the F shoes did not contain any/many 5s or 5+s). I recognize F and OBL coupled with the U1D2 were very strong, and in most instances, both F and OBL would allow me to exit with winning profits.

Still, for my own satisfaction, I wanted more specific criteria to distinguish when to play F vs OBL for the style of play/betting that I implement. So below, I hope to share with our BTC members my biased F criteria

By the way – I hope you all will indulge me for some fun metaphor. I have seen and been in awe of the performance capabilities of the new Stealth F22 Raptor fighter jet in the USAF. Likewise, I remain impressed with the performance capabilities of SAP/NOR using U1D2. For this specific thread discussion – I hope Ellis won’t mind if I term it the Stealth F2/F3 “Ellis†Strong Side criteria!

So when do I decide to implement F/SS vs OBL? My past “image†for the F/SS shoe was long runs w 5+s, strongly negative O/R counts, and dominance of either P or B. However, this “image†has been made obsolete with the appearance of preshuffled boxed 8-deck shoes. Very rarely now do we see shoes with one or more long streaks of 6+s.

Here are my criteria for considering playing the Stealth F2/F3 approach:

1. Strong Side dominance of P or B. How strong? For my own use, I like to see at least a 2:1 advantage to the Strong Side.

2. The SAP count showing a strong advantage in the 4+s column, at least 4s or more occurring twice very close to each other.

3. Abundance of sporadic 1s – and even sporadic 2s on the weak side is ok.

4. The O/R count metric is more difficult – in F shoe types, it can run from negative to positive and back to negative. So I have given the O/R more leeway for F shoes but instead focus on (2, 3) above.

Briefly summarized below are my basic playing and betting preferences:

5. Play 111 until at least to +2 and then switch to 112 until to +4 or +5 and then remain with 123. I use U1D2 primarily.

6. For protective stop loss, exit at (-8) from the extreme swing equity high.

7. For profit lock, after hitting +10, play very tight – either 111 or 121 – and play to 3 consec losses. If I am leaving the casino soon, I frequently also exit after the 1st loss after hitting a lucky shoe of +10.

8. Bet primarily with M3 as it is very strong coupled with U1D2.

9. For OTR after M3, I bet 1x. Then if OTR continues, I remain OTR until 1st loss. I may bet 121212 for OTR runs if I am at least +6 for that shoe.

I know there are probably some criteria I have missed – but for now, I hope BTC members can follow along my F/SS approach. I will soon post a shoe start for your review/input.

Regards,

Daytrader77459

[daytrader77459]

BTC members,

Take a look at this shoe start that I played yesterday and compare it to my F/SS criteria.

Shoe start: PP B PPPP B PPPP B

Pls note that this start can easily be interpreted for playing also either TBL shoe type, or OBL (less likely S40). However, the lack of 2s, 3s, make for the OBL shoe type to be weaker. The two series of 4s really puts early “strain†on S40 (at least “strain†psychologically for me to use S40 in this scenario).

Look at the shoe below and note that the 4s SAP count definitely puts it into F/SS. Plus, the P > B dominance of more than 2:1 argues for the F/SS approach. Again, lack of 5+s but this is more typical in recent months with preshuffled decks. Note: the O/R count is showing “drift†which may be typical in F/SS shoe types.

Next post, I will put up the actual shoe play/bets that I did.

Daytrader77459

[daytrader77459]

BTC members,

Here is the F/SS shoe debrief:

1. Hd 14 – started off using 112 (already ahead for the day in profits).

2. Thru Hd 23 – noticed that there were 2s but no 3s – so I maintained with F/SS.

3. Hds 27, 31, 36 – played U1D2 base 1 but mandatory 2 after a 1 bet.

4. Hd 39 – hit my first 3 consecutive losses – but played 121 after hitting +10.

Note this is NOT typical play for me – Way2Fast and others that play with us can confirm that I hardly play entire shoes. Even this shoe is unusual for me to play consecutive hands/bets – however – I did not hit three consecutive losses until Hd 39.

In closing, I have definitely been observing a much higher frequency of OBL shoes and these types of Stealth F2/F3 shoes where the is a lack of 5+s or more, and the O/R drift hardly goes extremely negative. SAP/NOR is strong enough to survive and profit for most of these shoe types. However, having specific F/SS selection and betting criteria helps to keep my mental capital "uncluttered" and "consistent/congruent" for long-term playing success.

Please feel free to offer any constructive observations – more F/SS shoes upcoming.

Regards,

Daytrader77459

[layzie_j]

Thanks for sharing this. Once I get more experience with at baccarat, I will keep your approach in mind and try it out. I do have a question to ask. You stated the quote below.

In my previous posts, I had stated that Way2Fast and I had been seeing at least 75% of all shoes across 2 major casinos being at least OBL type shoes during the playing hours of 11am to 1am primarily. I do not play the 3am – 11am shifts.

When you play at the casino, how would you know when their shift ends? Do you ask the dealers the time?

Thanks

[daytrader77459]

Hi LJ,

U can always ask dealers, floor persons, when shift chgs occur. They r happy to help. I play best in late afternoon thru 1am time periods. Best if u know ur own peak performance waking hrs.

Regards,

Daytrader77459

[Guest]

Daytrader, very excellent and valuable posts. No, I don't mind the military motif at all. In fact, if you've noticed, I often "deploy" military terminology myself.

This is because I think of a casino trip as a military operation. Scout out their weaknesses and hit them when and where they are the most vulnerable with an overwhelming force. Then retreat to safety and regroup.

Correct, know when you are sharpest. As a diabetic, my best hours are early morning. Note the times of my posts. They are all very early morning here in Arkansas.

Casinos put their best people on the late night shift where most of the heaviest betting is done. But I end up challenging their bozos right when I'm at my sharpest. Plus mornings are when the cards are most predictable both for BJ and Bac. No contest!

BTW, one of our members just now PMed me that he was there for the original Team Play seminar in the Bahamas. I'm hoping he will post about the experience. You'll recognize his name if he posts but I don't want to put him on the spot.

[ECD]

Daytrader, thanks for posting your F shoe. After the discussions we had last week in Vegas, you can imagine my surprise to see you post a thorough analysis of how to play a streaky shoe! It is true, Daytrader does not often play every hand like this, but he also understands the power of the NOR approach and betting progressions which REQUIRE playing most hands. The sign of a great player is one who recognizes what is happening in the shoe and adjusts accordingly.

Did you start the shoe in F2 (see third bet on hand #19)? With no bank repeats at that point, why wouldn't you have started in F3, or made no bet on hand 19?

[daytrader77459]

Hi Way2Fast,

That is a very good observation, question. Often, we had discussed how many F shoes also played into TBL well. I played into TBL on this first BB occurrence. After loss, then played F w M3 as per your thoughts. Either approach is fine, I think. Just hv to play consstent.

You r also correct, not easy play consec hds. But fortunately had v good profit locked up,for wknd.

Wait until u see the next F shoes, one late last nt, one just played now. Will post and discuss later.

I look fwd to c u again soon hopefully. And maintain our high daily hit rate w SAP, NOR! Safe travels!

Regards

Daytrader77459

[Guest]

Just a couple of points here guys:

When I say new cards favor mostly OTB4L, some S40 but almost never F, I'm strictly referring to new cards that came to the table in 8 individual sealed box card order decks and were prepped right at the table and then those same two colored cards are used for the rest of the day.

The reason such new cards favor OTB4L is because the Casinos generally use a card prep that favors OTB4L because that is normally their most profitable shoe type.

On the other hand, we have preshuffled cards that come to the table in an 8 deck preshuffled bundle to start each shoe. Here, time of day is meaningless. But still, those cards were preshuffled by somebody and under supervision. Here, the cards can favor anything. BUT, whatever they are favoring on a given day, they are likely to continue favoring. But also with preshuffled cards we must watch for the casino changeup - for the worm to turn. They are trying their best to catch you with your pants down.

And we know this works for the casino. That is how they make 26% of the buy in money in a game that favors the casino only 1.25%. (commission)

BTW, I saw a TV program just yesterday where the casinos are saying their edge is 1.6% instead of 1.25%. They are correct but only because they include tie bets. This should give you a good idea of why you should NEVER bet ties. (or dragon bonus) They only serve to help the casino.

On the subject of skipping hands:

I seldom do this because no matter how long you wait, it doesn't change the odds of the next hand. But, if it serves to make you more comfortable at the table, that is an important factor.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Guest