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OTB4L Changing to Streak | ECD GROUP | February 16, 2013


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I am having trouble grasping betting strategies and timing of "how to start and when to change Systems" ...I'm old...you gotta make allowances:confused:

This is a shoe that I came across online ...From the OR count...it starts off Neutral and switches to Streak...then back to Neutral

B1124112171511243423113113

Can someone pls explain the jump in point on this shoe...the change Systems point...and the betting strategies hand by hand.

I seem to be having real probs grasping the betting strategy on F (which I understand is the easiest)...I'm thinking that maybe my mother dropped me on my head when I was a baby

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I am having trouble grasping betting strategies and timing of "how to start and when to change Systems" ...I'm old...you gotta make allowances:confused:

This is a shoe that I came across online ...From the OR count...it starts off Neutral and switches to Streak...then back to Neutral

B1124112171511243423113113

Can someone pls explain the jump in point on this shoe...the change Systems point...and the betting strategies hand by hand.

I seem to be having real probs grasping the betting strategy on F (which I understand is the easiest)...I'm thinking that maybe my mother dropped me on my head when I was a baby

Oz, calm down! This is what I would call a "you can't win em all" shoe.

Playing my normal way, OTB4L M3 starting at play 2 with a repeat, I would get out of this shoe at play 17.

Why? I'm at +1 with a 3 bet due, down from +4 and I've already had to deploy my 3 bet 3 times in only a handfull of plays. It's doubtful I'll win it a fourth time. This, therefore is an extremely dangerous shoe. Get out with ANY win or even a small loss.

Now if somebody were lucky enough to play F3 U1D2 in this shoe or even switch to it due to strong side they get to +10 at about play 32. QUIT! You've already got to your 4 bet twice! Those are DANGER signs. So OK if you stay in you end up at +11 but only after having to make a 5 bet twice and a 6 bet once. You could have been at the bar with ten units having a Fosters.

BTW, I had you pictured as a young wippersnapper. You write young!

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Oz, calm down! This is what I would call a "you can't win em all" shoe.

Playing my normal way, OTB4L M3 starting at play 2 with a repeat, I would get out of this shoe at play 17.

Why? I'm at +1 with a 3 bet due, down from +4 and I've already had to deploy my 3 bet 3 times in only a handfull of plays. It's doubtful I'll win it a fourth time. This, therefore is an extremely dangerous shoe. Get out with ANY win or even a small loss.

Now if somebody were lucky enough to play F3 U1D2 in this shoe or even switch to it due to strong side they get to +10 at about play 32. QUIT! You've already got to your 4 bet twice! Those are DANGER signs. So OK if you stay in you end up at +11 but only after having to make a 5 bet twice and a 6 bet once. You could have been at the bar with ten units having a Fosters.

BTW, I had you pictured as a young wippersnapper. You write young

!

All things are comparative Ellis...kidding

Thanks for that...As I looked at this shoe, it looked like it should be beatable but couldn't work out the means.

It's good to have my musings on exiting the game early confirmed by you.

I realise that I have so much to learn...but I'm growing ever more confident that with the assistance of the Pros on here...I will get there...eventually...Patience is not my strong suite so the lengthy learning process in itself can only be a good thing/lesson.

I'm currently viewing as many previously posted shoes as I can and am learning heaps from their analysis by you and other posters.

Can't thank you enough for your patience

Oz

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi, Oz1,

I looked over the shoe you provided below. Your question of OBL vs changing over to a Streak (either F2/F3 or RD1/RD2) approach is a very good question and indicates that you are really studying NOR in detail.

For many NOR players, the weakest areas (plenty of room to improve) include:

1. The desire or feeling or need - to actually be betting into the shoe all the time - every hand and GUESSING the correct NOR strategy. Better instead - let the shoe play out its O/R counts and SAP events slowly and at the SHOE'S pace (not at the player's expected pace). Look for specific O/R triggers to guide you into the correct NOR strategy.

2. The inability yet - which will come after more practice and debriefs and experience - is to develop acute "situational awareness" of the dynamics and flux of the O/R vs SAP events vs Mode 2/3 changes based on the player's win/loss outcomes.

Let's go over your shoe below:

3. After the 1st 13 hds - P vs B was nearly equal at 7 vs 6. No strong bias.

4. The O/R count was fluctuating from +2 to -1 and then back to +2. This flux range of 3-4 O/R values again provides no strong bias.

5. In looking over the SAP events, the Least Common is "3" at zero.

In having a slight O/R bias to +2 and LC 3, one could argue a lean towards S40 with M2 and go OTR on a "3" in a row.

However, thus far, I would not consider OBL as there is no dominance of 3s or even 2s at this time. I would also not consider Streak after hand 13 - the O/R count bias to the upside is not indicating the use of any Streak strategy for now.

I would not yet have made any bets to this point if played live cash game with my rule base.

6. But then look at the sudden Banker run with Hand 18 (now Banker at 5 iar). Look how the O/R dropped immediately from +3 (Hand 14) to a score of -1 by Hand 18. This is my trigger for a Streak bias kicking in hard. Stephen or Ellis or Keith may prefer O/R dropping down to -2 or more. But the rapid 5-point drop in the O/R consecutively over 5 hds is my trigger.

7. Also note that LC is still at 3. This means that Strong Side play should be F2 (LC 3).

Oz1 - you can then play out Hand 19 all the way thru the end of the shoe. Even with the Player side showing shifts of 2s vs 3s, there is plenty of profit there playing out F2/F3 with a 123 U1D2 type schedule.

This is how I would have been "guided by the shoe metrics" of the O/R and SAP events and the O/R range and O/R direction in a combined dynamic perspective.

In summary:

8. No strong indication from my perspective for OBL - since I prefer to see excess of 2s and 3s and less 1s for OBL shoes. In the first dozen hds, the O/R is supportive of poss OBL, but the events of the SAP 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, - just did not make it a clear OBL shoe for me.

9. Also, in the first 18 hds, the O/R was in a 4-5 point range hovering near zero - again not indicative of any Streak trigger.

Well, that's it for now - I hope you can get an idea of how I wait for "confluence of triggers" (O/R rapid drop of -5, plus 5 iar, plus LC 3) before acting on the SHOE's guide that Streak program is kicking in.

This is similar to the way we trade monitoring program trading triggers in the S&P futures for rapid momentum moves. Or tracking big block volume trades which track large institutional trading program triggers. It cannot be hidden.

Same with the NOR idea - the best NOR shoes will have confluence of supportive metrics and the confluence triggers happen quick and hard and simultaneously!

As Ellis have repeatedly insisted and stated - we must choose only to play the best shoes with the strongest biases (whether it be table bias, shoe bias, color of deck bias, O/R bias, SAP bias, or P vs B bias, etc).

Oz1 - the shoe provides tons of immediate info - many times, best to adopt the "lizard brain mentality" of just basking in the sun and doing nothing. And then act only when the shoe triggers confluence of its metrics.

I have tons of live cash game shoes recorded that have validated this concept of confluence of triggers. Way2fast and I play this way in Strip casinos with large unit size - so we have to be very precise and tight and selective before engaging the shoe at hand.

I have learned to enjoy the idea that doing nothing - letting hds go by as the O/R count is drifting and SAP counts nearly equal, and P vs B near equal - the best strategy is to WAIT. Or try Ellis' neutral net betting approach (but is much more complex).

Hope this helps more than confuse you! Keep up with your research and questions as you develop your own unique NOR approach. But NOR remains the strongest combo, and coupled with Ellis' bet sched of U1D2 or U1D1, or 112 or 123 4, etc. - NOR easily provides winning shoes at a high % rate > 80% in our database.

Good luck!

Daytrader77459

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Hi, Oz1,

One more point about how I use NOR - I simply do not play OBL well at all. My rate of winning shoes in OBL "weather" is not very good. So, all my metrics and confluence triggers are focused to identify momentum trends in S40 and F2/F3 (or TBL or RD1/RD2) biases.

I am certain Ellis and Keith and others can identify and play OBL much more strongly than I can. For example, I know that Way2Fast is a very strong OBL player as he is able to play sequential bets! This is necessary to win in OBL shoe games. Given this perspective, I have worked the metrics to filter out as much neutral and OBL type shoes.

BTW - I do play OBL once in a while with the "sniper" baccarat approach. If the shoe is showing OBL - I will only try to go bet on the 2nds as my primary target. That's it, simple, quick.

I have some success with this sniper mode - but playing thru sequential hds w OBL - for me, this is just painful and must be avoided for my comfort zone.

Regards,

Daytrader77459

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Hi, Oz1,

One more point about how I use NOR - I simply do not play OBL well at all. My rate of winning shoes in OBL "weather" is not very good. So, all my metrics and confluence triggers are focused to identify momentum trends in S40 and F2/F3 (or TBL or RD1/RD2) biases.

I am certain Ellis and Keith and others can identify and play OBL much more strongly than I can. For example, I know that Way2Fast is a very strong OBL player as he is able to play sequential bets! This is necessary to win in OBL shoe games. Given this perspective, I have worked the metrics to filter out as much neutral and OBL type shoes.

BTW - I do play OBL once in a while with the "sniper" baccarat approach. If the shoe is showing OBL - I will only try to go bet on the 2nds as my primary target. That's it, simple, quick.

I have some success with this sniper mode - but playing thru sequential hds w OBL - for me, this is just painful and must be avoided for my comfort zone.

Regards,

Daytrader77459

I think it depends largely on where and when you play. OTB4L is a new, regular cards system.

But knowing you Daytrader, I think we can depend on you to figure out the best way to play the conditions you face.

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I see Virtuoid is trying to get a Baccarat conversation restarted on ImSpirit by going back and replying to some of my old posts. Ha, it won't be much of a conversation W/O me. Sorta like one hand clapping.

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Hi, Oz1,

I looked over the shoe you provided below. Your question of OBL vs changing over to a Streak (either F2/F3 or RD1/RD2) approach is a very good question and indicates that you are really studying NOR in detail.

For many NOR players, the weakest areas (plenty of room to improve) include:

1. The desire or feeling or need - to actually be betting into the shoe all the time - every hand and GUESSING the correct NOR strategy. Better instead - let the shoe play out its O/R counts and SAP events slowly and at the SHOE'S pace (not at the player's expected pace). Look for specific O/R triggers to guide you into the correct NOR strategy.

2. The inability yet - which will come after more practice and debriefs and experience - is to develop acute "situational awareness" of the dynamics and flux of the O/R vs SAP events vs Mode 2/3 changes based on the player's win/loss outcomes.

Let's go over your shoe below:

3. After the 1st 13 hds - P vs B was nearly equal at 7 vs 6. No strong bias.

4. The O/R count was fluctuating from +2 to -1 and then back to +2. This flux range of 3-4 O/R values again provides no strong bias.

5. In looking over the SAP events, the Least Common is "3" at zero.

In having a slight O/R bias to +2 and LC 3, one could argue a lean towards S40 with M2 and go OTR on a "3" in a row.

However, thus far, I would not consider OBL as there is no dominance of 3s or even 2s at this time. I would also not consider Streak after hand 13 - the O/R count bias to the upside is not indicating the use of any Streak strategy for now.

I would not yet have made any bets to this point if played live cash game with my rule base.

6. But then look at the sudden Banker run with Hand 18 (now Banker at 5 iar). Look how the O/R dropped immediately from +3 (Hand 14) to a score of -1 by Hand 18. This is my trigger for a Streak bias kicking in hard. Stephen or Ellis or Keith may prefer O/R dropping down to -2 or more. But the rapid 5-point drop in the O/R consecutively over 5 hds is my trigger.

7. Also note that LC is still at 3. This means that Strong Side play should be F2 (LC 3).

Oz1 - you can then play out Hand 19 all the way thru the end of the shoe. Even with the Player side showing shifts of 2s vs 3s, there is plenty of profit there playing out F2/F3 with a 123 U1D2 type schedule.

This is how I would have been "guided by the shoe metrics" of the O/R and SAP events and the O/R range and O/R direction in a combined dynamic perspective.

In summary:

8. No strong indication from my perspective for OBL - since I prefer to see excess of 2s and 3s and less 1s for OBL shoes. In the first dozen hds, the O/R is supportive of poss OBL, but the events of the SAP 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, - just did not make it a clear OBL shoe for me.

9. Also, in the first 18 hds, the O/R was in a 4-5 point range hovering near zero - again not indicative of any Streak trigger.

Well, that's it for now - I hope you can get an idea of how I wait for "confluence of triggers" (O/R rapid drop of -5, plus 5 iar, plus LC 3) before acting on the SHOE's guide that Streak program is kicking in.

This is similar to the way we trade monitoring program trading triggers in the S&P futures for rapid momentum moves. Or tracking big block volume trades which track large institutional trading program triggers. It cannot be hidden.

Same with the NOR idea - the best NOR shoes will have confluence of supportive metrics and the confluence triggers happen quick and hard and simultaneously!

As Ellis have repeatedly insisted and stated - we must choose only to play the best shoes with the strongest biases (whether it be table bias, shoe bias, color of deck bias, O/R bias, SAP bias, or P vs B bias, etc).

Oz1 - the shoe provides tons of immediate info - many times, best to adopt the "lizard brain mentality" of just basking in the sun and doing nothing. And then act only when the shoe triggers confluence of its metrics.

I have tons of live cash game shoes recorded that have validated this concept of confluence of triggers. Way2fast and I play this way in Strip casinos with large unit size - so we have to be very precise and tight and selective before engaging the shoe at hand.

I have learned to enjoy the idea that doing nothing - letting hds go by as the O/R count is drifting and SAP counts nearly equal, and P vs B near equal - the best strategy is to WAIT. Or try Ellis' neutral net betting approach (but is much more complex).

Hope this helps more than confuse you! Keep up with your research and questions as you develop your own unique NOR approach. But NOR remains the strongest combo, and coupled with Ellis' bet sched of U1D2 or U1D1, or 112 or 123 4, etc. - NOR easily provides winning shoes at a high % rate > 80% in our database.

Good luck!

Daytrader77459

Thanks heaps for taking the time to post all that info. I really appreciate it.

Your post makes more sense with each reading.

At the risk of wearing out my welcome...I figure that I will be posing a few more questions when I've finished digesting your input

This really is "The friendly Forum"

Oz

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Hi, Oz1,

I looked over the shoe you provided below. Your question of OBL vs changing over to a Streak (either F2/F3 or RD1/RD2) approach is a very good question and indicates that you are really studying NOR in detail.

Daytrader,

Very informative post.

You are so right about the feeling that you have to play the whole shoe, it's something i deal with all the time. Overall, the feeling has cost me more than helped me. Capture and stop loss points have controlled the issue, but not eliminated it.

I especially like your confluence, "lizard brain" and "sniper approach" as I've seen Winning baccarat is about discipline, knowledge and patience.

RD1, I've seen before and find it useful for capturing 3+. There is a whole blog on RD1. What is the recipe for RD2 - I haven't seen that before?

Thanks

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I see Virtuoid is trying to get a Baccarat conversation restarted on ImSpirit by going back and replying to some of my old posts. Ha, it won't be much of a conversation W/O me. Sorta like one hand clapping.

ELLIS,

Throughout history if you had a non conforming idea you were thrown in a dungeon, stoned to death, crucified or branded. Luckily the worse that can happen to you is that you are banned at IMSPIRIT. I must admit that I do find it disheartening as that blog was the first time I heard of NOR.

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ELLIS,

Throughout history if you had a non conforming idea you were thrown in a dungeon, stoned to death, crucified or branded. Luckily the worse that can happen to you is that you are banned at IMSPIRIT. I must admit that I do find it disheartening as that blog was the first time I heard of NOR.

Right! Look at Tesla. He was totally shunned while he was alive. But now he is considered the father of elecrical distribution. And when we go to a wireless grid it will be because of Tesla's ideas and experiments. We will still be using his ideas 100 years from now. In a way, he still lives.

So what was ImSpirit supposed to do once Virtuoid saw first hand that NOR actually works, keep it a secret? NOT!

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Hi, PurpleInk,

RD is about playing so-called "rain drops" type shoes where Repeats dominate over Opposites. The O/R count is heavily negative, and may flux for 3-4 points against - but then returns back to more negative again. Also, 1s are much lower than average, and the best RD shoes have 4s and 4+s being Most Common or at least high above average.

RD1 is analogous to playing only Repeats - but with Mode 3 (winning 3rd bet). RD1 has one Singlet between Streaks of Repeats (or 3 ZZ - like PPPP B PPP). After the PPPP B P - attack for 2nd P.

RD2 is similar but now there are two Singlets - PPPP B P BBBB. It is sort of a Mode 2 with 1 OTR, or a failed Mode 3 and then 1-u loss OTR and back to the Repeats again.

In general, I do not like RD2 nearly as much - in my database, having two Singlets often is best played F/SS or TBL. You must watch the O/R flux and range of change.

RD strategy needs and is fueled by Repeats - so that O/R score needs to turn back neg quickly.

Ellis, Keith - HELP! I may have used RD1 and RD2 incorrectly. Perhaps RD1 is for a ZZ, and RD2 is for a ZZZ. However, I have used RD1 as 1 Singlet (ZZZ) and RD2 as 2 Singlets (ZZZZ) from a playing experience perspective. Sorry for the unintended confusion of nomenclature!!!! Please correct and/or add to my very simplified cash-game player's perspective.

PurpleInk - I have not seen many RD2 shoe types over the past few years on the Strip. I have seen many F/SS, and TBL, and RD1.

Also, if 1s are below avg, and O/R is neg, and 2s and 3s above avg - then you can obtain similar results using RD1 and OBL. In fact, Ellis may even recommend OBL over RD1 where 2s and 3s are heavy. But the results will be similar b/c of the powerful betting methods that he has taught us with 123 or U1D2, etc.

Hope this helps - look at the old threads. There are RD sections there - just have to sort and print out those threads and piece it together.

Happy gaming!

Daytrader77459

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DAYTRADER,

Thanks for the writeup and evaluation of RD2. The BTC search engine does not do well with such short searches as "RD2".

While I know that NOR in its' formal manner uses F I simply like to keep as many tools in my toolbox as possible. Always looking to learn as much as possible and to paraphrase Bruce Lee "Use what is valuable and throw away what isn't" Also I try to capitalize not just on what I recently learned but all that I've learned.

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Hey Daytrader--- well done on your explanation and analysis. It is encouraging to see this. It validates the fact that once you gain the experience and knowledge of NOR, you can really understand the game!!!!

Steve

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  • 2 weeks later...
Right! Look at Tesla. He was totally shunned while he was alive. But now he is considered the father of elecrical distribution. And when we go to a wireless grid it will be because of Tesla's ideas and experiments. We will still be using his ideas 100 years from now. In a way, he still lives.

So true. I'm a BIG Tesla fan; most people don't realize that not only did he "invent" AC current (your electricity in your house) ;), but he INVENTED RADIO as well... Marconi is often incorrectly credited...

We owe a big debt of gratitude to this man; the world as we know it would be totally different without his contributions!!!

Now back to your bac station...:smile:

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  • Keith Smith changed the title to OTB4L Changing to Streak | ECD GROUP | February 16, 2013

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