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Question on OTB & Mode changes.


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Hi Ellis,

Here is another shoe I played live before. I got some questions on modes.

B112421114111

B213111461

B11122

On play 14, I would be on m3 and won 4th bet. After that, I was wondering if I could have a M2-1 which means go mode 2, but only go OTR for 1 bet for zz. Maybe just keep a note of it?

Play 21 this happens exactly, and then on hand 31 I use it again, but then I would lose it on hand 45.

Also when was a good jumping in point here. I will not jump in at 2 like you do unless I am using Nor+ and u1d1-2, I think thats why you can do that right?

Please let me know your thoughts as I would like to be more consistent and not trying to hit everything.

Much appreciated.

Thanks

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Hi Ellis,

Here is another shoe I played live before. I got some questions on modes.

B112421114111

B213111461

B11122

On play 14, I would be on m3 and won 4th bet. After that, I was wondering if I could have a M2-1 which means go mode 2, but only go OTR for 1 bet for zz. Maybe just keep a note of it?

Play 21 this happens exactly, and then on hand 31 I use it again, but then I would lose it on hand 45.

Also when was a good jumping in point here. I will not jump in at 2 like you do unless I am using Nor+ and u1d1-2, I think thats why you can do that right?

Please let me know your thoughts as I would like to be more consistent and not trying to hit everything.

Much appreciated.

Thanks

Well first kilieu, lets get you playing the right system for this shoe. You will see that all your Mode questions are the same regardless what system you are playing.

First, OTB4L does not like double 1's because they, at best, get you to a 3 bet in Mode 3 and can be disasterous in Mode 2.

But S40 loves double or any other number of 1's. S40 loves 1's and this shoe starts with 2 of them. But S40 also likes 1's mixed with 2s and this shoe starts 112.

Now, unlike OTB4L, we usually start S40 in Mode 2 to cover our ass on long straight runs. Well here is a BIG tip: S40M2 also likes 4 or mores and this shoe starts 1124.

In fact S40 M2 likes EVERYTHING in the whole first col while OTB4LM3 HATES triple 1's.

High 1's spells S40 and this shoes starts and stays high 1's. OTB4L does not like high 1's.

The only thing S40M2 does not like is straight 3s and you don't have ANY confirmed until play 27 and that turns out to be the only one in the whole shoe.

So, high 1's and 2s with low 3s is screaming S40M2.

You are trying to make OTB4L fit an S40 shoe - WRONG!

Playing the right system you can afford to bet U1D2 - playing the wrong system you can't.

SO, play the shoe over again S40M2 U1D2 starting at play 2.

Why play 2? Because high 1's are contageous at a table. I'm betting you also had high 1's last shoe. If so, you can afford play 2 with U1D2.

But now you will see that you have the very same Mode questions. So let's answer them BEFORE you ask them.

OK, you are missing out on one very important trick of the trade.

And if you are, I'm sure others are so everybody pay attention to this.

Yes, you attempt a 2nd OTR bet in Mode 2 regardless what system you are playing. BUT IF IT DOESN'T HIT, YOU DON"T ATTEMPT IT NEXT TIME. And from there you go by what happened last time. Later in the shoe when you have more runs to go by, you can go by what happened MOST of the time.

Example: Play 8 your M2 OTR 3 bet hits, confirming M2 but your follow up OTR 1 bet misses so you don't make that 2nd OTR bet next time. See that?

Tip: OK your 2nd OTR 1 bet attempt missed. DON'T go to 2. Don't punish yourself for attempting a 2nd OTR bet. Restart your prog at 1. Right, it usually makes no difference to your score BUT it helps your PA and anything that helps your PA helps YOU. BUT IF it turns out you would have won the 2 then THAT is what you do next time. See that? Again you are letting the shoe tell you what to do. The shoe usually knows this stuff better than we do.

Example: At play 17 your M2 3 bet hits again. So this time you only stay OTR one bet because that is what would have worked last time. You are letting the shoe tell you what to do.

And that all works perfectly right up until you lose your first 3 at play 27. The accursed 3iar! Big whip! You are betting U1D2 and yor 4 wins and so does your 2 - end of problem.

But now your 3 has won TWICE and only lost ONCE so you now go with what happened MOST of the time and stick with M2.

This pays off at play 33. And the single OTR pays off at play 34.

But now comes the dreaded 6iar.

OK your 3 bet hits but this time the run continues so your 1 bet misses for the first time. What to do?

go back OTR for your 2 bet and bet on, off, on, off the run until you either lose an OTR bet or win an ATR bet.

WHY? Because in this case you are entrapped into making only single OTR bets in M2. This is dangerous if a long run occurs. On, off, on, off is the safest way to play it and half the time you end up winning 2 bets in a row as you do at plays 39 and 40. I like that better than staying OTR which always forces a lost bet.

So now you sail along with 1 and 2 bets until you hit +20 at play 46. Do you quit? Absolutely! The last play has already been announced. I almost never play the last play. But certainly not if I'm at +20.

So are you starting to understand Modes now and last time?

There is ONE thing that can go wrong playing last time this way. Sometimes last time is ALWAYS wrong. What to do?

Stop changing. Play the same rigid way the rest of the shoe, whichever way won most of the time. At least you will be right about half the time - which is the mathematical objective.

Now, see that? You've just made +20 in only 45 bets by playing the right system the right way and starting at play 2 with U1D2. That is where I'm trying to get you to. But this WAS a very obvious and therefore a very easy shoe. But I'm trying to get you to where these things are obvious TO YOU.

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But now your 3 has won TWICE and only lost ONCE so you now go with what happened MOST of the time and stick with M2.

This pays off at play 33. And the single OTR pays off at play 34.

But now comes the dreaded 6iar.

OK your 3 bet hits but this time the run continues so your 1 bet misses for the first time. What to do?

go back OTR for your 2 bet and bet on, off, on, off the run until you either lose an OTR bet or win an ATR bet.

Hey Ellis - just curious why you didn't go ATR for the 2 bet and then OTR for the 3 bet (since you are in Mode2)? That's what I would have done and lost to the 6iar betting my 3 bet it would go 7iar. But after that go on to win the next 4 and 2 bets on the ZZ.

Actually what I usually do unless I am ahead a lot is once I win the my first OTR bet in Mode2 is wait to see if the run goes to 5iar. If it does then bet ATR for two bets. This would have won against the 6iar. If lost then bet the 3 bet OTR hoping it went to 8iar. Then repeat.

Is that a good way to play do you think?

And what do you think is a better way to handle runs - on off on off? Or play the run with Mode2?

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Hey Ellis - just curious why you didn't go ATR for the 2 bet and then OTR for the 3 bet (since you are in Mode2)? That's what I would have done and lost to the 6iar betting my 3 bet it would go 7iar. But after that go on to win the next 4 and 2 bets on the ZZ.

Actually what I usually do unless I am ahead a lot is once I win the my first OTR bet in Mode2 is wait to see if the run goes to 5iar. If it does then bet ATR for two bets. This would have won against the 6iar. If lost then bet the 3 bet OTR hoping it went to 7iar. Then repeat.

Is that a good way to play do you think?

And what do you think is a better way to handle runs - on off on off? Or play the run with Mode2?

Hi ztomsk! Recognize that I'm recommending the on off on off process in this particular case: First with S40M2 we get ON the run the earliest of any S40/OTB4L way and the same as OTB4LM1. So our 3 bet is already hitting on the 4th circle of a run. BUT because we already lost our second OTR bet in this particular shoe we are also getting off the run the earliest possible. Chances are excellent under this circumstance, more runs will continue further. So the on off makes good sense here because we are getting back on the run the earliest possible. True we see few 8 or mores anymore but 6s are a fact of life.

Staying on the run until you lose also makes the most sense in this particular circumstance - I just don't like the forced loss even though it is only a 1 bet.

Having said all that, the on off thing is always a good way to reduce runs to a nuisance no matter how long they last. But so is simply staying on the run and so is stop betting until the run plays out as you do. All of these are very close from the standpoint of the most bets won. BUT the on off thing wins 2 bets in a row half the time while staying on runs ALWAYS loses a bet.

Of course you can do what would have worked last time but in this shoe there was no last time so the shoe couldn't give us any guidance.

The only guidance we have is what were prior shoes doing at OUR table today? Were we seeing plentiful 6 or mores or not?

The wrong thing to do is fear runs. You can't always bet against them! That just doesn't work. I'm trying to only show you ways that usually beat runs while avoiding ways that usually lose even though they SEEM safer. Runs are a fact of life and we need to have a wining plan - even if it is stay on all runs until you lose. The earlier you get ON a run, the more sense that makes but on off is an attractive alternative.

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Wow, thanks, I was still a noob and only doing OTB as it was stuck in my head being the first I learned. Anyhow, I did this over again and got the +19, THANKS!!! However i have these questions.

Since on play 9, I go OTR for 2nd bet and miss -1, then I go opposite, do I increase and bet -2? And since this missed, do I do a 3rd bet rule and go OTR on B? (I didn't and just did opp) It gets a little confusing because lets say it was later in the shoe and my 9th bet was opp. And I hit. Now, my 10th is an opposite and a 1 bet, then the 11th, I bet 2 and hit. So no one even thinks if this would have been a 3 bet in the above situation.

With U1D2, do we go all the way up to 5 or 6, and what happens once we hit the max, betting 123456.

Ok, I just read this before I had a question. Typically in M3 OTB, you change modes on whatever is last or do you go by what MOST happens too. For example on 27, m2 hit twice and m3 once, so stick with m2 on S40. And OTB same?

I didn’t get the On Off for the long run. I did OTR 2nd bet for play 39, then 40 was I suppose to bet opp again or did you mean off by not playing, what would happen if it was 9?

What is ATR?

Again, your awesome, I hope I can do this well in all shoes.

Example: Play 8 your M2 OTR 3 bet hits, confirming M2 but your follow up OTR 1 bet misses so you don't make that 2nd OTR bet next time. See that?

Tip: OK your 2nd OTR 1 bet attempt missed. DON'T go to 2. Don't punish yourself for attempting a 2nd OTR bet. Restart your prog at 1. Right, it usually makes no difference to your score BUT it helps your PA and anything that helps your PA helps YOU. BUT IF it turns out you would have won the 2 then THAT is what you do next time. See that? Again you are letting the shoe tell you what to do. The shoe usually knows this stuff better than we do.

Example: At play 17 your M2 3 bet hits again. So this time you only stay OTR one bet because that is what would have worked last time. You are letting the shoe tell you what to do.

And that all works perfectly right up until you lose your first 3 at play 27. The accursed 3iar! Big whip! You are betting U1D2 and yor 4 wins and so does your 2 - end of problem.

But now your 3 has won TWICE and only lost ONCE so you now go with what happened MOST of the time and stick with M2.

This pays off at play 33. And the single OTR pays off at play 34.

But now comes the dreaded 6iar.

OK your 3 bet hits but this time the run continues so your 1 bet misses for the first time. What to do?

go back OTR for your 2 bet and bet on, off, on, off the run until you either lose an OTR bet or win an ATR bet.

WHY? Because in this case you are entrapped into making only single OTR bets in M2. This is dangerous if a long run occurs. On, off, on, off is the safest way to play it and half the time you end up winning 2 bets in a row as you do at plays 39 and 40. I like that better than staying OTR which always forces a lost bet.

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Wow, thanks, I was still a noob and only doing OTB as it was stuck in my head being the first I learned. Anyhow, I did this over again and got the +19, THANKS!!! However i have these questions.

Since on play 9, I go OTR for 2nd bet and miss -1, then I go opposite, do I increase and bet -2? And since this missed, do I do a 3rd bet rule and go OTR on B? (I didn't and just did opp) It gets a little confusing because lets say it was later in the shoe and my 9th bet was opp. And I hit. Now, my 10th is an opposite and a 1 bet, then the 11th, I bet 2 and hit. So no one even thinks if this would have been a 3 bet in the above situation.

With U1D2, do we go all the way up to 5 or 6, and what happens once we hit the max, betting 123456.

Ok, I just read this before I had a question. Typically in M3 OTB, you change modes on whatever is last or do you go by what MOST happens too. For example on 27, m2 hit twice and m3 once, so stick with m2 on S40. And OTB same?

I didn’t get the On Off for the long run. I did OTR 2nd bet for play 39, then 40 was I suppose to bet opp again or did you mean off by not playing, what would happen if it was 9?

What is ATR?

Again, your awesome, I hope I can do this well in all shoes.

Ha, nobody, including me, does that well in all shoes. A good overall avg for U1D2 is about +10. But you can avg +20 on a good day or even a good trip.

ATR stands for Against The Run.

I'll give you the plays. Draw out the completed shoe and then read my notes with the shoe it front of you, especially the Tip.

1 0

2 P1

3 B1

4 P1

5 P2

6 B1

7 B2

8 P3 (M2)

9 P1 (2nd OTR attempt)

10 P1 (Tip)

11 P2

12 B1

13 P1

14 B1

15 P1

16 P2

17 B3 (still M2)

18 P1

19 B1

20 P1

21 B1

22 P1

23 P2

24 B1

25 P1

26 P2

27 B3

28 B4 You are up +6 so you can afford the 4 bet within your -8 stop loss

29 P2 (U1D2)

30 B1

31 P1

32 P2

33 B3 (still M2)

34 P1

35 B1

36 B2

37 P3 (ON)

38 B1 (OFF)

39 P2 (On)

40 B1 (Off wins so tou are back to betting Opposites)

41 P1

42 P2

43 B1

44 P1

45 B1

46 B2 = +20 Quit

Had the 6iar gone to 9, you would lose a 2 but are still even for the run.

Usually you can only afford a 6 within your -8 stop loss and often not even that. But also, you want to always think twice before making a bet that could take you below +1. Do you really want to chance giving up a winning shoe? You wouldn't take that risk if you are already down for the day and a win is a win!

Recognize that in Mode 2, you are normally betting twice OTR so usually you lose a 1,2; win a 3,1, etc. So there is no way to lose on a run, following the rules. But when you already know you are only going to bet OTR once, On Off, becomes a winning way to play a run.

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Actually these may need corrections too.

26 B3

27 P1

28 B1 – There wasn’t a need for a 4 bet ever, might of skipped something

29 P1

As for 38, why would you make this OFF if all the other times we were in M2 and went OTR 1 bet then went back to s40 hitting every single one.

So for me, 38 would be B1 (ON) with a loss

As for what you did, you had b1 off, then you increased to a 2 bet. So you would still increase to 2 and not make it p1 bet?

Can you do a 9iar instead of the 6 in the shoe? When I did it, in Off, i would lose all the B1, then I would win all the P2 bets except for the last.

Thanks

22 P1

23 P2

25 B1

25 P1

26 P2

27 P2

28 B4 You are up +6 so you can afford the 4 bet within your -8 stop loss

29 P2 (U1D2)

30 B1

31 P1

32 P2

33 B3 (still M2)

34 P1

35 B1

36 B2

37 P3 (ON)

38 B1 (OFF)

39 P2 (On)

40 B1 (Off wins so tou are back to betting Opposites)

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Woops, I looked at it again, I did F2 during that decade.

So I get that part now, so when you lose the first OTR bet on s40, you go right back to s40.

33. We are still m2 since it had more events ok.

38 is still off to me and the rest in my last post

Actually these may need corrections too.

26 B3

27 P1

28 B1 – There wasn’t a need for a 4 bet ever, might of skipped something

29 P1

As for 38, why would you make this OFF if all the other times we were in M2 and went OTR 1 bet then went back to s40 hitting every single one.

So for me, 38 would be B1 (ON) with a loss

As for what you did, you had b1 off, then you increased to a 2 bet. So you would still increase to 2 and not make it p1 bet?

Can you do a 9iar instead of the 6 in the shoe? When I did it, in Off, i would lose all the B1, then I would win all the P2 bets except for the last.

Thanks

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Woops, I looked at it again, I did F2 during that decade.

So I get that part now, so when you lose the first OTR bet on s40, you go right back to s40.

33. We are still m2 since it had more events ok.

38 is still off to me and the rest in my last post

You aren't getting the "last time" thing. We start S40 in mode 2 which calls for a second OTR bet. But if that second bet loses we don't try it next time. We stay OTR for 1 bet because that is what the shoe did last time.

At play 38 a second OTR bet would have lost every time so far so we don't make it this time. But it would have won so next time we go by what happed most often, but it never comes up again in this shoe. Get it?

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Ok, I got the above, but didn't get an answer to this below.

As for 38, why would you make this OFF if all the other times we were in M2 and went OTR 1 bet then went back to s40 hitting every single one.

So for me, 38 would be B1 (ON) with a loss. Then 39 would be P2, or would you do P1?

As for what you did, you had b1 OFF, then you increased to a 2 bet without making a 1 bet. So you would still increase to 2 and not make it p1 bet?

Can you do a 9iar instead of the 6 in the shoe? When I did it, in Off, i would lose all the B1, then I would win all the P2 bets except for the last.

Thanks

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Ok, I got the above, but didn't get an answer to this below.

As for 38, why would you make this OFF if all the other times we were in M2 and went OTR 1 bet then went back to s40 hitting every single one.

Right, you just answered your own question. One 0N bet only won or would have won in every occassion thus far so that is what we do at play 37 and 38. At play 38 our 1 unit off bet lost for the first time and we are betting up 1 on a loss, down 2 on a win so our bet is 2. The question is where to place our 2 bet? I'm saying since we got ON and then back OFF the run the earliest possible, the run is still as young as is possible so the prudent bet is back ON the run. Then ON OFF ON OFF UNTIL we either lose an ON or win an OFF bet - the only two possibilities. Then it is back to normal S40.

So for me, 38 would be B1 (ON) with a loss.

No, why would you make a second ON bet when that bet lost every time thus far in this shoe??? You are trying to do what THIS shoe is telling you to do, not ANY shoe.

As for what you did, you had b1 OFF, then you increased to a 2 bet without making a 1 bet. So you would still increase to 2 and not make it p1 bet?

Right, we are betting up 1 when you lose.

Can you do a 9iar instead of the 6 in the shoe? When I did it, in Off, i would lose all the B1, then I would win all the P2 bets except for the last.

Correct, which demonstrates that playing this way, you beat every run no matter the length so runs are nothing to fear.

The only thing S40M2 U1D2 can lose to is a 3 followed by a 4, because your losing 3 puts you in Mode 3 which loses to a 4.

The normal odds of that are once every 4 shoes BUT, you are only playing S40 in choppy shoes which reduces the odds of a 3,4 considerably but that is what stop losses are for.

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Hi,

The reason I would bet 38 ON is that every 3rd bet that won has went back to opposites. So every play except for 1. Plays: 8, 17, 33 Only play 27 didn't and we had to go to 4 bet

But I guess if it were a safe bet and we didn't know, then we can leave it off.

The other question I had was since your 38 bet was off and you didn't lose physical money, did you need to progress up to 2nd bet since there was never a real first bet for 39?

Right, you just answered your own question. One 0N bet only won or would have won in every occassion thus far so that is what we do at play 37 and 38. At play 38 our 1 unit off bet lost for the first time and we are betting up 1 on a loss, down 2 on a win so our bet is 2. The question is where to place our 2 bet? I'm saying since we got ON and then back OFF the run the earliest possible, the run is still as young as is possible so the prudent bet is back ON the run. Then ON OFF ON OFF UNTIL we either lose an ON or win an OFF bet - the only two possibilities. Then it is back to normal S40.

No, why would you make a second ON bet when that bet lost every time thus far in this shoe??? You are trying to do what THIS shoe is telling you to do, not ANY shoe.

Right, we are betting up 1 when you lose.

Correct, which demonstrates that playing this way, you beat every run no matter the length so runs are nothing to fear.

The only thing S40M2 U1D2 can lose to is a 3 followed by a 4, because your losing 3 puts you in Mode 3 which loses to a 4.

The normal odds of that are once every 4 shoes BUT, you are only playing S40 in choppy shoes which reduces the odds of a 3,4 considerably but that is what stop losses are for.

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Hi,

The reason I would bet 38 ON is that every 3rd bet that won has went back to opposites. So every play except for 1. Plays: 8, 17, 33 Only play 27 didn't and we had to go to 4 bet

But I guess if it were a safe bet and we didn't know, then we can leave it off.

The other question I had was since your 38 bet was off and you didn't lose physical money, did you need to progress up to 2nd bet since there was never a real first bet for 39?

Play 37 you are in Mode 2 because M2 has won its 3rd bet most of the time. You therefore win your 3 bet at play 37. Now the question is do you stay OTB for one more bet according to M2? The answer is NO because a second OTR bet would have lost every time thus far. See that?

We lose our normal 1 bet at play 38 and we are betting up 1 on a loss so our bet is 2 at play 39 regardless where we bet it.

You seem to be trying to make this more difficult than it is.

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Hi Ellis

At hand 46 you quit with +20.

I played the shoe the way you did, But it added up to +12, What did I miss?

LittleJim

Wow! Beats me. There is really nothing tricky. Here is the shoe again:

B112421114111

B213111461

B11122

Here are my plays again: S40 M2 U1D2 starting at play 2:

Maybe somebody could post this on scorecard format???

1 0

2 P1

3 B1

4 P1

5 P2

6 B1

7 B2

8 P3 (M2)

9 P1 (2nd OTR attempt)

10 P1 (Tip)

11 P2

12 B1

13 P1

14 B1

15 P1

16 P2

17 B3 (still M2)

18 P1

19 B1

20 P1

21 B1

22 P1

23 P2

24 B1

25 P1

26 P2

27 B3

28 B4 You are up +6 so you can afford the 4 bet within your -8 stop loss

29 P2 (U1D2)

30 B1

31 P1

32 P2

33 B3 (still M2)

34 P1

35 B1

36 B2

37 P3 (ON)

38 B1 (OFF)

39 P2 (On)

40 B1 (Off wins so you are back to betting Opposites)

41 P1

42 P2

43 B1

44 P1

45 B1

46 B2 = +20 Quit

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Ellis,

I am sure I am making it harder than it is by asking all these questions. I got all the bets the same as you. But here was what I was asking.

I would want to have bet 38 (ON) instead of off like you did and it would also be B1. Yes OTR 2 bet would be P1 and lost every single bet, thats why I would be B1 on this like you also did on play 17, 24, 33. Therefore I was just wondering why all of a sudden it went off (not placing a wager right?)

I also had a question on play 11, is that considered your 2nd bet, (not counting otr 1 or 2 as first bet if it lost)

Thanks again

Play 37 you are in Mode 2 because M2 has won its 3rd bet most of the time. You therefore win your 3 bet at play 37. Now the question is do you stay OTB for one more bet according to M2? The answer is NO because a second OTR bet would have lost every time thus far. See that?

We lose our normal 1 bet at play 38 and we are betting up 1 on a loss so our bet is 2 at play 39 regardless where we bet it.

You seem to be trying to make this more difficult than it is.

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Ellis,

I am sure I am making it harder than it is by asking all these questions. I got all the bets the same as you. But here was what I was asking.

I would want to have bet 38 (ON) instead of off like you did and it would also be B1. Yes OTR 2 bet would be P1 and lost every single bet, thats why I would be B1 on this like you also did on play 17, 24, 33. Therefore I was just wondering why all of a sudden it went off (not placing a wager right?)

I also had a question on play 11, is that considered your 2nd bet, (not counting otr 1 or 2 as first bet if it lost)

Thanks again

Ha, I think I see your problem:

Both "OTR" and "ON" mean On The Run

Both "ATR" and "OFF" mean Against The Run. (Opposite side of the run)

Now see if it all makes sense.

You are looking at the wrong plays. Look at plays 9, 18 and 34. In each case a second OTR attempt either failed or would have failed. THEREFORE we don't attempt a 2nd OTR bet at play 38. We bet OFF or ATR because that is the bet that won or would have won had we bet it, every time thus far. Can you hear me now?

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Kilieu, I think you are a smart guy. The whole prpblem here was merely semantics, just as it so often is with newer members. Whatever you do, Don't get distressed over this. It happens all the time. We are all used to it.

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Lol. Semantics!!!

I was playing off as a no bet. Was wondering why you didn't bet it like the rest of the times since it always won except for one.

Hence when I asked why you bet a 2bet without bettin the one (off). Haha

Yes we are on the same page now.

Thanks for being patient

Kilieu, I think you are a smart guy. The whole prpblem here was merely semantics, just as it so often is with newer members. Whatever you do, Don't get distressed over this. It happens all the time. We are all used to it.
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