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Okay. I understand that SAP tracks events. Could someone please explain to me how it works and how to use it. The straight run SAP is easy but I am having a hard time understanding the zig zag count.

Go to universal baccarat then to play options post # 2

Play options is on page 6 in universal baccarat section.

Norm A

FOLLOW THE SHOE

WHEN IN DOUBT WAIT IT OUT

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Okay. I understand that SAP tracks events. Could someone please explain to me how it works and how to use it.

Well no, at least not me. When I said it is good to graduate from strictly the OR count to events to determine the best system to play, I did not mean to go study SAP. SAP is a system in itself and it is not one of the 3 NOR systems. I developed SAP so I have nothing against it. But then I developed NOR because SAP has some misgivings that NOR corrects. NOR is by far the better system. You can take a shoe that SAP does well in and NOR will invariably do better, often much better.

SAP basically says bet ON events that are occurring MORE than normal and AGAINST events occurring LESS than normal. And it uses a count to tell you the difference. This is all well and good when the disparity is increasing. BUT when events are occurring at their normal frequency SAP has no bet but NOR does. And when events start catching up to their normal frequency SAP fails but NOR doesn't.

Each of the 3 systems of NOR is a bet placement routine. SAP not only has no betting routine, it interferes with the 3 NOR betting routines.

I used to say that when playing OTB4L we should bet on 3s when 3s are high. But I no longer say that. Sure, you look brilliant as long as your 2s are going to 3. BUT, when a 2 stays 2, which it invariably will sooner or later, now you've missed your NOR bet and that can have dire consequences because now you are at a 2 bet while NOR is at a one bet. And OTB4L would have beat the 3 anyway. It's just not worth the risk of deviating.

What I meant when I said to graduate to events is to learn which events each of the 3 NOR systems like and go by that rather than the OR count. It is a far more accurate way of determining which system as well as which mode to play.

The OR count is good training wheels when you first start and have yet to develop a feel for the game. OR has a huge short coming. It only looks at what 1's are doing while totally ignoring what everything else is doing.

This is hard to grasp at first but the fact is if 1's are high you ALWAYS have a + OR count. If 1's are low you ALWAYS have a - OR count. See the problem? You have no idea of what the rest of the events are doing and that is KEY to winning the game - often far more important than 1's.

SAP was good for a few units a shoe IF you could fully grasp the concept. The problem was that only a handful of our members could actually perform SAP correctly. The rest ended up with a score card full of notes with no idea of what they meant or how to react to them. They had a headache before the first shoe was over and the least bit of distraction would screw them up for sure and casinos are full of distractions.

I've played NOR+ alongside of our SAP players. Sure, they won their 6 units but now they are ready for a nap. Meanwhile, I won 12 and I'm just getting started. They had their head glued to their scorecard the whole shoe while I was talking to everyone at the table. I was always first to bet while they were always last. Sure, a few mastered SAP very well but most of our members were completely lost.

When I tell you to go by events I'm not asking you to do anything the least bit difficult. Here is all you really need to know.

S40 likes high 1's and 2's

OTB4L likes high 2s and 3s

F likes high 4 or mores and Strong Side

That is far stronger than the OR count already. Now all you need to know is what is normal.

Normally:

1's occur 1 every 4 plays or 5 per col of 20

2s occur 1 every 8 plays or 2.5 per col of 20

3s occur 1 every 16 plays or 1.25 per col of 20

4 or mores also occur 1 every 16 plays.

It doesn't take long before you don't need to count anything. You get to where you can just glance at a tote board and automatically know which events are high and which are low.

The neat thing about this is a little known mathematical fact:

Shoes can't be high in everything or low in everything. There MUST be a balance. When a shoe is high in one or 2 events, it must be equally low in other events.

It is best to keep your OR count while you are learning events. But the day comes when you can drop the OR count altogether.

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Okay. Good to know. I downloaded the bootcamp manual and watch the first bootcamp video. They have helped a lot.

Right, players like Steve's simplified boot camp explanations.

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Thanks Ellis.

That makes a lot of sense. I've been religiously tracking the OR count, but the more I practised, the more I felt pushed to pre-empt the count by looking more at the direction it was heading rather than in a positive/negative. Now as I practice, I still find events that flog me when they shouldn't. I even tried stopping for a couple of hands, pretending it was a new shoe and starting the count again. This helped me get that mental break that you speak of where you're able to chat at the table, rather than be buried in the scorecard.

I keep a notebook where I write down all of the critical concepts from the manuals and the forum. I'll be pasting this in:

S40 likes high 1's and 2's

OTB4L likes high 2s and 3s

F likes high 4 or mores and Strong Side

Can I just ask - forgive me if its a silly question - the ability to detect the shifting patterns without reliance on the OR count, will that just come with time, practice and application? I suppose what I'm trying to say is, is there something else that I should be paying attention to, or will it just emerge from greater immersion in our work?

Thanks again.

Chief

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Thanks Ellis.

That makes a lot of sense. I've been religiously tracking the OR count, but the more I practised, the more I felt pushed to pre-empt the count by looking more at the direction it was heading rather than in a positive/negative. Now as I practice, I still find events that flog me when they shouldn't. I even tried stopping for a couple of hands, pretending it was a new shoe and starting the count again. This helped me get that mental break that you speak of where you're able to chat at the table, rather than be buried in the scorecard.

I keep a notebook where I write down all of the critical concepts from the manuals and the forum. I'll be pasting this in:

S40 likes high 1's and 2's

OTB4L likes high 2s and 3s

F likes high 4 or mores and Strong Side

Can I just ask - forgive me if its a silly question - the ability to detect the shifting patterns without reliance on the OR count, will that just come with time, practice and application? I suppose what I'm trying to say is, is there something else that I should be paying attention to, or will it just emerge from greater immersion in our work?

Thanks again.

Chief

Exactly right! Since the OR count ONLY looks at 1's, you arrive at a skill level when you start seeing that events are often pointing in a different direction than the OR count. Then you'll note that events win that argument nearly every time.

Then you'll come to a skill level where you are simply no longer looking at your OR count at all. And you'll ask yourself why am I wasting my time with that so you drop the OR count altogether. You don't need to be thinking about it - one day it just happens automatically. Meanwhile though, until then, it is best to keep an OR count. You'll know when you no longer need it.

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"1's occur 1 every 4 plays or 5 per col of 20

2s occur 1 every 8 plays or 2.5 per col of 20

3s occur 1 every 16 plays or 1.25 per col of 20

4 or mores also occur 1 every 16 plays."

Ellis,

How can 3s and 4s occur with the same frequency, i.e. once every 16 plays?

After all, since 3s is a shorter streak wouldn't it occur more often than 4s?

Please explain.

Sincerely,

sakana

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"1's occur 1 every 4 plays or 5 per col of 20

2s occur 1 every 8 plays or 2.5 per col of 20

3s occur 1 every 16 plays or 1.25 per col of 20

4 or mores also occur 1 every 16 plays."

Ellis,

How can 3s and 4s occur with the same frequency, i.e. once every 16 plays?

After all, since 3s is a shorter streak wouldn't it occur more often than 4s?

Please explain.

Sincerely,

sakana

Zebra and I are both correct.

3s occur at the same frequency as 4+s (4 OR MORES)

just as 1's occur at the same frequency as 2+s and

2s at the same frequency as 3+s and so forth

Just a simple fact of math.

Although it does seem strange at first glance.

BTW, I was first to compute and publish the frequencies of occurrence in Baccarat - about 20 years ago. No one has ever challenged my findings.

Well, until now.

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