Jump to content

Help with a sample shoe....


Recommended Posts

Bac, here's how I approached it. Not knowing any additional information so playing blind, I started at play #2 using OTB4LM3 with the U1D2 progression as per NOR+. I'm only playing M3 & M2 for now, so not looking for an M1 situation. It starts out great and stays good through the first two columns, but the ZZ's in the 3rd col takes it downhill. I'd have been out for sure after play #44 to preserve a winning shoe(+5), but would be disappointed I was down from a high of +15 at the end of 2nd col.

On my scorecard at the bottom I rewrote your shoe with the standard convention.post-6350-14500261500128_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks gman..

I saw one more shoe hard shoe. Copied from the casinos.

I started playing (practice) the shoe with S40 since it had to many 1's in the beginning but ended up hitting -8.

P1111121341111

B7242113

P13131523

P13111

How would you approach this. Most importantly how do you change with the biases and when to stop(obviously before the stop loss limit in profit).

Your help is greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks gman..

I saw one more shoe hard shoe. Copied from the casinos.

I started playing (practice) the shoe with S40 since it had to many 1's in the beginning but ended up hitting -8.

P1111121341111

B7242113

P13131523

P13111

How would you approach this. Most importantly how do you change with the biases and when to stop(obviously before the stop loss limit in profit).

Your help is greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Hi Bacplayer

I played your shoe with S40 and it scores +10 for me. Maybe I made some mistake? Ellis can give a look and correct.

K

[ATTACH]2526[/ATTACH]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bac, here's how I approached it. Not knowing any additional information so playing blind, I started at play #2 using OTB4LM3 with the U1D2 progression as per NOR+. I'm only playing M3 & M2 for now, so not looking for an M1 situation. It starts out great and stays good through the first two columns, but the ZZ's in the 3rd col takes it downhill. I'd have been out for sure after play #44 to preserve a winning shoe(+5), but would be disappointed I was down from a high of +15 at the end of 2nd col.

On my scorecard at the bottom I rewrote your shoe with the standard convention

gman, Bac, Gman's thinking here is correct and per our teachings. It is much like The Art of War. We must attack when things are going our way BUT we must RETREAT when they are not. We must always be alert to protecting our winnings and protecting our avg units per shoe.

Things turned South even earlier. Look at play 23 and remember we are in mode 3.

Bac you went by the OR count which kept creeping neg. So you are thinking F. BUT, there is no Strong Side and no long runs. This is a good example of why you are better off to go by events. OTB4LM3 beats single and double 1's, 2s, 3s, and 4s - every event in the first col. But we hit a 5 ZZ starting at the bottom of the first col. We probably could have survived it if it occurred later in the shoe - but not this early. Get out with whatever chips you can. A win is a win.

You often see the regular players make this mistake. They are up +15 early but end up at -45! We don't do that. WE take the small win. It is very good for our win/loss avg.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Bacplayer

I played your shoe with S40 and it scores +10 for me. Maybe I made some mistake? Ellis can give a look and correct.

K

Well yes KK. S40 was certainly a reasonable choice. BUT you committed a Cardinal sin! You made a 5 bet when your score was -5. So OK, you got away with it THIS TIME. It's fine to fight a shoe with THEIR money. But we don't do it with OUR money. See the difference?

The regulars think the game is about being heroic. We see where that gets them. NO, whether BJ or Bac, we are the most boring players in the casino. BUT, we win overall. They lose overall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But I've got to get back to that 3rd shoe of godsend. gman, you made a few mistakes in that shoe but still ended up OK. But that was the make or break shoe for godsend's trip. And I want to show you an important trick we could have deployed to get to our +20 even sooner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kkriats,

Thanks for trying out the shoe i posted.

I am pretty new to this system. so i cant correct your appraoch. Leave it to the experts.

but from my point of view

a) game 17 should u make a 5 bet being -5 down already. u would surpass the -8 stoploss.

B) game 25 why one more OTR bet?

Even my understanding may be wrong. Experts pls pitch in....

Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kkriats,

I think you may have made a mistake at play #12. You are playing S40 M2, so after the 2 bet loss on Player at play #11 you would go OTR at play #12 with a 3 bet on Banker and that would have lost putting your score at -1 at play #12 with a 4 bet on Banker on play #13 going back to S40 and that would have lost putting you down -5 facing a 5 bet that you wouldn't have made. So you get to the same problem Ellis explained already just a few plays sooner I think. Any one else see that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well yes KK. S40 was certainly a reasonable choice. BUT you committed a Cardinal sin! You made a 5 bet when your score was -5. So OK, you got away with it THIS TIME. It's fine to fight a shoe with THEIR money. But we don't do it with OUR money. See the difference?

The regulars think the game is about being heroic. We see where that gets them. NO, whether BJ or Bac, we are the most boring players in the casino. BUT, we win overall. They lose overall.

Thanks Ellis some times Cardinal sins are deadly sins but just for me some times to quit the shoe at -10 instead of -8 is not a big deal. Thanks any way.

K

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kkriats,

Thanks for trying out the shoe i posted.

I am pretty new to this system. so i cant correct your appraoch. Leave it to the experts.

but from my point of view

a) game 17 should u make a 5 bet being -5 down already. u would surpass the -8 stoploss.

B) game 25 why one more OTR bet?

Even my understanding may be wrong. Experts pls pitch in....

Thanks

Hi Bacplayer

a)Yes to pass over the -8 is very dangerous and Ellis has pointed out. My personal stoploss is -10( thats why i have proceeded and certainly not because of your shoe)

b)I think this is inside the rules that tells you if you win the 1st OTR go with one more if I am correct

BR

K

Edited by kkriats
Correction
Link to comment
Share on other sites

kkriats,

I think you may have made a mistake at play #12. You are playing S40 M2, so after the 2 bet loss on Player at play #11 you would go OTR at play #12 with a 3 bet on Banker and that would have lost putting your score at -1 at play #12 with a 4 bet on Banker on play #13 going back to S40 and that would have lost putting you down -5 facing a 5 bet that you wouldn't have made. So you get to the same problem Ellis explained already just a few plays sooner I think. Any one else see that?

Hi gman72

No I started with S40 M3. If i don't have other records my initial default mode is M3 on either S40 and OTB

BR

K

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi gman72

No I started with S40 M3. If i don't have other records my initial default mode is M3 on either S40 and OTB

BR

K

I see, sorry, just ignore my comment. I was following what Ellis has explained is his default in S40, which is M2.

I had a really difficult time with that shoe, because I always try to start the shoes on here using OTB4LM3 at play 2 assuming I starting to play a new shoe blind. The starting 5ZZ just killed that at play #4 down -6, so I'm stopped out quick. If started S40M2 I can move along ok until the second column and then the streak just kills it. The shoe is really SS Player starting in the second column just not sure when my trigger would have been to switch to F or even if I'd have lasted long enough to make the switch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see, sorry, just ignore my comment. I was following what Ellis has explained is his default in S40, which is M2.

I had a really difficult time with that shoe, because I always try to start the shoes on here using OTB4LM3 at play 2 assuming I starting to play a new shoe blind. The starting 5ZZ just killed that at play #4 down -6, so I'm stopped out quick. If started S40M2 I can move along ok until the second column and then the streak just kills it. The shoe is really SS Player starting in the second column just not sure when my trigger would have been to switch to F or even if I'd have lasted long enough to make the switch.

Because I have done many mistakes regardind application of OTB I never start OTB blind( unless previous shoe records, but even so I am waiting to see at least a 2iar). Regarding the current shoe I would start with OTB after seeing a 2iar or a 1,2,1 or 2,3 etc. So for the above shoe I would start at play #9 OTB M3 without changing to F.

K

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I meant SS "Banker" not Player. I really wish I was able to edit my posts.

I guess we had a problem with that once upon a time. But I don't think it would be a problem today. I'll ask Keith about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, that is the problem playing shoes on the forum - we are always playing in the blind. Whereas in a casino we usually aren't - hopefully!

But IF playing totally in the blind in a casino, I would at least wait for a 2iar and then hope it doesn't go 5. 6 is OK but a 5 really sucks!

Yes, I think waiting 4 events is good IF playing in the blind. But that begs the question - Why are you playing in the blind in the first place???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use