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How do you determine how to play this shoe at the beginning


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My 2 cents,

A perfect example of the need to be "fluid" and watch for changing counts.

After several hands you could play s40m1 or F2 just by looking back at the prior results.

But after a reasonable amount of hands won I would have been suspect of a switch in the counts.

The shoe noticably starts moving towards ot4bl so I probably would

have tested this with a unit or two and then followed that new count

on the move. At a certain point I would have been suspecting another count

to take over. Or for a low disparity opportunity to arise. And so on...

This is much easier to do when you are up units. Risking a couple units on an educated "hunch" is a prudent

way to play.

Otherwise sit and watch and bet in your head.

Again, just a couple cents...

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FWIW - I played it thru starting at Hand 2 using OR Net betting and got a min of -3 at Hand 15 and a max of +9 units at Hand 29.

Admittedly, I increased the tolerance range from 3 to 5 so the max bet was 4 units at Hand 16.

Is that better or worse than your results?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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It sounds like you did what I use to do. When I was in the right mode at the beginning... lets say in a show s40, then I would be winning and then see a change in the shoe to TT and go OTB for a section and go back... But Ellis only changes about 10% of the shoes when I was looking to change almost all the time. After awhile it went back and forth too quickly when I changed, it would change back, which is why I assume Ellis stays on one mode as you can battle it through.

But thanks for your opinion, I just did this earlier today with s40... 111122221111. on the first 22, I was s40, then I went to OTB and then after the 222211, I went on s40 again... maybe I got lucky, but thats what I did... doesn't happen all the time... well doesn't happen 90% of the time... haha

My 2 cents,

A perfect example of the need to be "fluid" and watch for changing counts.

After several hands you could play s40m1 or F2 just by looking back at the prior results.

But after a reasonable amount of hands won I would have been suspect of a switch in the counts.

The shoe noticably starts moving towards ot4bl so I probably would

have tested this with a unit or two and then followed that new count

on the move. At a certain point I would have been suspecting another count

to take over. Or for a low disparity opportunity to arise. And so on...

This is much easier to do when you are up units. Risking a couple units on an educated "hunch" is a prudent

way to play.

Otherwise sit and watch and bet in your head.

Again, just a couple cents...

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B141135122

B22124

An interesting conversation BUT:

Guys, this is an EASY shoe. Put your 4D hat on. I saw how to play this instantly.

Your O/T count stays between 0 and -4 with a spread of only 4. A perfect net bet situation. Your 0/R count went to 5 with a spread of 6 - not so good.

The early 4iar should have thrown you off of OvR and on to OvT because a 4 is one 0 vs 3 Rs. But a 4iar is the perfect OvT event because it is two 0s vs 2 Ts. See that?

Net bet OTB4L vs TB4L with U1D2 progs just as we have been talking on the 4D thread. Since net betting is very forgiving, I started with 1v1 at play 2. I score +14. My highest bet was 3, 3 times. My worst position was +1.

This produces a startlingly high PA of 37%. What more could you ask for? This is perfect Baccarat!

This is precisely why we are discussing the 4D. Do you see that?

Glenn, you played it very well and I'm proud of that fact BUT you could have played it a whole lot better with just a couple more clues. See that?

Live and learn!

This shoe demonstrates a VERY important 4D point. Even if you don't play it the best way - but you see the 2nd best way - you STILL win very handsomely. That is what I mean by "very forgiving". This is why the 4D has such a high win rate. Even when you are wrong, you win!

But Glenn, given the very short amount of time you've had exploring the 4D, you played it very well! Now consider what you will be able to do with a little more experience!

GUYS, I'm introducing you to a whole new realm of Baccarat. We are the only players in this realm. No one has gone before us in this new realm, including me. I don't have all the answers. Not yet. Let's explore it together. Together, we soon WILL see the answers as they present themselves. We are like explorers looking for the NorthWest passage. We will make a few missteps but together, we will find the way.

This is where you say: "OK...Louis!"

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Ellis. I do not know how to net bet yet but I have been doing a lot of 4d learning daily.

One thing I observed was sometimes my disparity is only 3 or 4, for 40 hands. I knew there was a way to bet this I just didnt know how.

Example range 1 to 4.

I know how to bet when its 1 and 4. But didnt know how to bet the others since it can do a full swing from 4 to 1 or 4323212321 etc

Can you please link me and also is there anything other than net betting that would work for this. I mean I could technically do a progression the range is only 4. Can only lose 2-3 max right? But which side to bet etc

Please send me a link

Thanks

An interesting conversation BUT:

Guys, this is an EASY shoe. Put your 4D hat on. I saw how to play this instantly.

Your O/T count stays between 0 and -4 with a spread of only 4. A perfect net bet situation. Your 0/R count went to 5 with a spread of 6 - not so good.

Net bet OTB4L vs TB4L with U1D2 progs just as we have been talking on the 4D thread. Since net betting is very forgiving, I started with 1v1 at play 2. I score +14. My highest bet was 3, 3 times. My worst position was +1.

This produces a startlingly high PA of 37%. What more could you ask for? This is perfect Baccarat!

This is precisely why we are discussing the 4D. Do you see that?

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An interesting conversation BUT:

Guys, this is an EASY shoe. Put your 4D hat on. I saw how to play this instantly.

Your O/T count stays between 0 and -4 with a spread of only 4. A perfect net bet situation. Your 0/R count went to 5 with a spread of 6 - not so good.

The early 4iar should have thrown you off of OvR and on to OvT because a 4 is one 0 vs 3 Rs. But a 4iar is the perfect OvT event because it is two 0s vs 2 Ts. See that?

Net bet OTB4L vs TB4L with U1D2 progs just as we have been talking on the 4D thread. Since net betting is very forgiving, I started with 1v1 at play 2. I score +14. My highest bet was 3, 3 times. My worst position was +1.

This produces a startlingly high PA of 37%. What more could you ask for? This is perfect Baccarat!

This is precisely why we are discussing the 4D. Do you see that?

Glenn, you played it very well and I'm proud of that fact BUT you could have played it a whole lot better with just a couple more clues. See that?

Live and learn!

This shoe demonstrates a VERY important 4D point. Even if you don't play it the best way - but you see the 2nd best way - you STILL win very handsomely. That is what I mean by "very forgiving". This is why the 4D has such a high win rate. Even when you are wrong, you win!

But Glenn, given the very short amount of time you've had exploring the 4D, you played it very well! Now consider what you will be able to do with a little more experience!

GUYS, I'm introducing you to a whole new realm of Baccarat. We are the only players in this realm. No one has gone before us in this new realm, including me. I don't have all the answers. Not yet. Let's explore it together. Together, we soon WILL see the answers as they present themselves. We are like explorers looking for the NorthWest passage. We will make a few missteps but together, we will find the way.

This is where you say: "OK...Louis!"

Thank Elllis, but I only got to +9 using the OR net betting by relaxing the max bet limit to 5 max (4 unit bet) vs the std 3 max (2 unit bet) since the OR count is what I'm most familiar with from NOR. A clear case of "When all you have is a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail". I definitely need to add more tools to my toolbox...all in due time with PRACTICE.

Since you were able to instantly recognize the early 4 iar and start O/T, is there a general rule we can apply if you join mid-shoe to say start with X net betting system since the pattern looks like Y? I think that would at least help us avoid using the worst net betting mode to give a better fighting chance of a winning session.

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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This, BTW brings up an important point I have been discussing with John B over the phone. What EXACTLY is our signal to go from net betting the low count to single side betting the high count.

John likes to think in terms of "jail" as -3 to +3. So when we see a 4 we go to high side. I'm not so sure that is best. It is just too easy for the count to hit a 4 but still have a tight spread. When net betting, spread is everything. Where the spread is vs 0 doesn't really make any difference. What I'm saying is that a count that ranges between -1 and +4 is actually better than a count that ranges between -3 and +3 because it is a SPREAD of 5 vs a spread of 6. See that?

For net betting, a spread of 123 or 4 is GOLDEN - an easy win. A spread of 5 is good. A spread of 6 is just OK and might incur a 4 bet, maybe even a 5 bet. So instead of a 4 count being poison, I'm thinking a spread of 7 should signal high side. In other words we should be going by the spread rather than the actual count. That keeps us safely net betting the low spread count more often and going to high side less often.

Net betting is always safer because we can finangle. For instance what if the worst happens and we get an 8iar. So OK our high entry goes to 6. A little scary but we can increase our low entry to 2 making our bet only 4. BUT, once we go high count single side betting we want to be sure because we lose our ability to finangle which means we are depending on Mode to keep us out of trouble. Hmmm, I think I'd rather finangle.

On the other hand, sometimes all of our counts take off. Fine, that is exactly what NOR likes and exactly when NOR is safest. But I'm thinking that whenever we have a lowest spread of 6 or less, regardless of the count numbers, net betting is safest. A lowest spread of 7, THEN we go high side. A little experimentation should give us the BEST answer. It doesn't matter a hoot who is right. What matters is the right answer.

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Dear Ellis,

Base on the 4D does it mean if we have a spread of 4 then we start net betting ?

What does high side means ? I am sorry I am slow learner.

If our net bet one side goes to 5 and loss what do we do ? Go back to start at 1-1 again ? Or stop loss?

Regards,

Vincent

Hi Vinny! Referring to the 4D when we say Low side and High side we are referring to the fact that with the 4D we either net bet the "lowest" count or we play NOR using the highest count. Sometimes we can do both but I don't want to confuse you with that yet.

While we are generally referring to the lowest numerical count we really mean the lowest spread (the highest vs the lowest point a count got to. (Disparity). But when we say high count we actually mean the highest numerical count.

For instance, suppose after 8 or so plays our P/B counts stayed between + 2 and -2, a spread of 4 and 4 was the lowest spread of all 4 counts. We would know to net bet P vs B because a spread of 4 is virtually an ideal can't lose net bet situation. But it could happen that our PB spread wanders upward perhaps making O/R the new lowest spread. We would simply switch to net betting the O/R count. It is all the same on our score card because we are simply net betting + vs -, regardless which count is actually the lowest spread.

But now, lets say the lowest spread hits 7. Now we would look to see which count has the highest numerical value. Lets say our O/T count is at +9. That means OTB4L has won 9 times more than TB4L. We would simply play NOR OTB4L which would put us in another virtual can't lose situation judging by the shoe thus far. The 4D counts (Mother) is always telling us the best way to play.

Study my reply a bit and I think the wisdom of this overall 4D strategy will begin to come clear. Nor functions best on high counts. Net Betting functions best on low counts. We ALWAYS have one or the other. There is no way the casino can escape. If one count falls out of favor, another count usually takes over. All we are discussing now is the particulars. We are glutens for every chip we can get.

P.S. You don't need to call me dear, dear. I'm not the dear type.

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Thank Elllis, but I only got to +9 using the OR net betting by relaxing the max bet limit to 5 max (4 unit bet) vs the std 3 max (2 unit bet) since the OR count is what I'm most familiar with from NOR. A clear case of "When all you have is a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail". I definitely need to add more tools to my toolbox...all in due time with PRACTICE.

Since you were able to instantly recognize the early 4 iar and start O/T, is there a general rule we can apply if you join mid-shoe to say start with X net betting system since the pattern looks like Y? I think that would at least help us avoid using the worst net betting mode to give a better fighting chance of a winning session.

+9 is good! - usually the best of everybody at the table.

Anyway, yes an excellent question.

You get to the point where you can look at a tote board and know what to net bet W/O even back tracking the 4 counts.

PvB: PvB is easy because most modern tote boards now list total Ps vs Bs at the bottom. But if not, it is pretty easy to see if reds are about equal to blues.

PvB loves ZZ runs because both progs win every other play, so you win EVERY bet!

OvR: We want to see 2s because 2s are one O and one R. We also like 3,1s and 1,3s. We don't like runs either straight or ZZ. (like early 4s)

OvT: We love 4s. 3s and 5s are good too. We like 2112s and 3113s.

OOvTT: We like long (5s and 6s) runs following runs both straight and ZZ but I would stay away from this until you have an actual count to go by.

So in short:

High 1s = PvB

High 2s = OvR

High 3s, 4's = OvT

High 5+ ST or ZZ = OOvTT

These are good educated guesses. You are still better off with actual 4D counts.

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+9 is good! - usually the best of everybody at the table.

Anyway, yes an excellent question.

You get to the point where you can look at a tote board and know what to net bet W/O even back tracking the 4 counts.

PvB: PvB is easy because most modern tote boards now list total Ps vs Bs at the bottom. But if not, it is pretty easy to see if reds are about equal to blues.

PvB loves ZZ runs because both progs win every other play, so you win EVERY bet!

OvR: We want to see 2s because 2s are one O and one R. We also like 3,1s and 1,3s. We don't like runs either straight or ZZ. (like early 4s)

OvT: We love 4s. 3s and 5s are good too. We like 2112s and 3113s.

OOvTT: We like long (5s and 6s) runs following runs both straight and ZZ but I would stay away from this until you have an actual count to go by.

So in short:

High 1s = PvB

High 2s = OvR

High 3s, 4's = OvT

High 5+ ST or ZZ = OOvTT

These are good educated guesses. You are still better off with actual 4D counts.

Thanks Ellis - I really appreciate it.

Honestly, so far I've actually had better results in live play starting from new shoes using OTB4L to start, then adjusting where needed - although now I think I'll start with net betting the OR out of the gate and re-adjust as needed based on what's showing (4 iar's, etc.). It seems that my last few times I jumped in on the middle of a shoe after figuring which system to play and then the "worm turns".

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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