1234 Progression Betting and when to start betting.

[Ice Cool Sam]

Gents,

I have lost hope in going through the forum searching for my answers so I put them up here and hope a professional player can help with REALISTIC answers.

1. Can some one clarify the 1234 bet progression:

A:

Bet 1 unit if win then 2 if win then 3 and so on until you reach 4 unit and then return to bet 1? or

B: Bet 1 if you lose then 2 if you lose then 3 and 4 and when all 4 bets (11 units) are lost start again???

if this is the case how does the -8 unit stop loss applies?

If it's case B then it;s a nightmare. it's the martingale with a small stop loss. why not progress when you win (so you are using the casino's money) instead of using your own money?

2. Since not everyone is like Ellis (who is like a GOD who can see into the shoe right from the start) and can tell from the 2nd play of the game if it's S40, F or OTB4L, from experience how many games do you we have to wait before we can determine the best option for the shoe.

It's ridiculous to say you CAN start from the first hand because how do we then know if we have to use MODE 2 or 3?

Thanks

Sambo

[kramden]

Hi Sam,

You are correct it is a 123 up as you lose progression. The 4 bet is an on the run bet.

It has been suggested that you make a separate progression for on the run bets and

build up to that 4 bet once you know what is going on i the shoe.

Also you need to win a few bets before you start your progression. This will tell

you if you have selected the correct NOR system for the shoe at hand.

I agree with you that neg progressions can cause you to hit your stop

loss quickly so I limit my hi bet to 2. with enough practice in following the

shoe it wont take more than a 2 bet to kick the "ever loving crap" out of a shoe.

Hopes this helps you a bit!

[kramden]

And Sam,

I too am not a "god" who can read the shoe from the third hand.

I think the default mode is only to capture the most likely event

of any shoe. So I dont make my first bet until further into the shoe.

I have a kind of rolling shoe evaluation where i reevaluate after every four

or five hands. Then I switch on the fly. I do not wait for a column of 20 outcomes.

But NOR teaches you to evaluate the shoe and then decide if its worth playing and then

which of the three approaches to use. The bet then becomes a "gamble".

There is unfortunately no way around that.

So I say learn to read the scoreboard and then make a personal decision

of when to start betting. You will probably find it more valueable to wait for at least

6 or 7 hands.

Now if you are up money, you can always risk a unit or two on a run or something. Sometimes its ok

and beneficial to be a "cowboy".

[Guest]

And Sam,

I too am not a "god" who can read the shoe from the third hand.

I think the default mode is only to capture the most likely event

of any shoe. So I dont make my first bet until further into the shoe.

I have a kind of rolling shoe evaluation where i reevaluate after every four

or five hands. Then I switch on the fly. I do not wait for a column of 20 outcomes.

But NOR teaches you to evaluate the shoe and then decide if its worth playing and then

which of the three approaches to use. The bet then becomes a "gamble".

There is unfortunately no way around that.

So I say learn to read the scoreboard and then make a personal decision

of when to start betting. You will probably find it more valueable to wait for at least

6 or 7 hands.

Now if you are up money, you can always risk a unit or two on a run or something. Sometimes its ok

and beneficial to be a "cowboy".

Students tend to forget that NOR teaches you to do a table selection search first. That dictates that you are starting mid shoe for your first shoe at a table. The only other good starting situation is early in the morning when you already know what the card prep is producing.

Preshuffled cards like they use in Vegas, when they come out with new cards (every shoe at the hand held games) all you can do is wait and see.

[kramden]

I made a weird observation the other day. I played a mini bac table which was already mid shoe.

No scoreboards so I copied the prior hands from another player. I won a bunch of units and was waiting for the next shuffle.

I didnt notice but there was no shuffler so they brought out new boxed cards. The dealer actually

did a wash before hand shuffling. It was a bogus wash but a wash none the less.

So there was a table going next to me that was using an automatic shuffler. So I moved over to finish my

play at the other table. I was kind of thrown for a loop as to how the wash would aaffect

the randomness. So I made the quick decision figuring that the auto shuffler would have

been holding whatever bias was there and all Inwould have to do

was wait and figure out what the bias was.

Should I have been worried about the wash? I dont know, but I found it

strange that Under the pressure of live play I chose to use the auto shuffled

game.

Just taken off guard, thats all.

Comments?

[Ice Cool Sam]

Students tend to forget that NOR teaches you to do a table selection search first. That dictates that you are starting mid shoe for your first shoe at a table. The only other good starting situation is early in the morning when you already know what the card prep is producing.

Preshuffled cards like they use in Vegas, when they come out with new cards (every shoe at the hand held games) all you can do is wait and see.

Ellis

where in the Manual have you mentioned to do a table search? in the bet selection part of the manual there is nothing that I can see about table selection. It's obvious that we have to do a table selection and fair enough.

so now we now that you have to wait at least 10 games to be able to make a GOOD GUESS (and it's only a guess) because the table and the game can turn around so quickly that your most evaluated and best made guess can turn into S * * *.

[Ice Cool Sam]

And Sam,

I too am not a "god" who can read the shoe from the third hand.

I think the default mode is only to capture the most likely event

of any shoe. So I dont make my first bet until further into the shoe.

I have a kind of rolling shoe evaluation where i reevaluate after every four

or five hands. Then I switch on the fly. I do not wait for a column of 20 outcomes.

But NOR teaches you to evaluate the shoe and then decide if its worth playing and then

which of the three approaches to use. The bet then becomes a "gamble".

There is unfortunately no way around that.

So I say learn to read the scoreboard and then make a personal decision

of when to start betting. You will probably find it more valueable to wait for at least

6 or 7 hands.

Now if you are up money, you can always risk a unit or two on a run or something. Sometimes its ok

and beneficial to be a "cowboy".

I can't believe what you are saying.

This completely contradicts the whole idea of this forum and what Ellis is saying.

If after all the study this is still going to be a gamble so what is the point of this all ha hoo. I paid to learn something and to put to use not to gamble.

If that's the case I have wasted my money and time.

[kramden]

Sam,

What I am saying is yes it is still a gamble, as everything in life is.

There is no guarantee that your expected outcome will turn over.

If there was or if it was that easy the casinos would be boarded up.

That said, the background reasoning of how the casinos "manufacture" the game

of baccarat combined with the bet selection and money management approach

of NOR AND combined with a players' skill and acuity should produce positive results.

You should have a reason for every move you make when playing. Thus you should right

many more times than you are wrong.

The information on this forum is no guarantee(no offense to anyone) BUT it is more than enough

to win. It takes time and practice though. And a clear head. Emotions must be left out of the equation.

[Guest]

I have no idea. I haven't read the manual since I wrote it years ago. But we discuss the fact that NOR is based on "Finding the most biased table in the casino" as well as how to do it which is discussed time and again in the forum. It only takes about 5 minutes once you know how to read toteboards which is also explained.

The manuals are strictly about how to play. The Forum discusses casino comportment, tote boards, regular cards vs preshuffled, Q&As and so forth - all too lengthy for a manual. The forum is manual support and student support.

In the new member instructions it invites you to ask questions after you've read the forum.

That is to avoid wasting everyone's time.

I hit the wrong button. This is regarding Sams post:

"Ellis

where in the Manual have you mentioned to do a table search? in the bet selection part of the manual there is nothing that I can see about table selection. It's obvious that we have to do a table selection and fair enough.

so now we now that you have to wait at least 10 games to be able to make a GOOD GUESS (and it's only a guess) because the table and the game can turn around so quickly that your most evaluated and best made guess can turn into S * * *."

[ECD]

Sam...You appear to have serious "Anger Management" issues.

I could have answered every question you asked...but after the way that you spoke to guys that have mentored me and freely gave of their valuable time in guiding me and turning me into a winner ...quite frankly ...I couldn't be arsed.

You need to sort out your attitude probs ...maybe apologise to the Forum and start afresh (without that chip on your shoulder)

Please don't take offence at this post...but it is something that needed to be said and understood (that is if you really do want to join the list of "WINNERS" at BTC)

Oz

[Guest]

Sam...You appear to have serious "Anger Management" issues.

I could have answered every question you asked...but after the way that you spoke to guys that have mentored me and freely gave of their valuable time in guiding me and turning me into a winner ...quite frankly ...I couldn't be arsed.

You need to sort out your attitude probs ...maybe apologise to the Forum and start afresh (without that chip on your shoulder)

Please don't take offence at this post...but it is something that needed to be said and understood (that is if you really do want to join the list of "WINNERS" at BTC)

Oz

Well, let's hope so. I have to get back to the 4D.

[Guest]

My inbox is finally clear so if I missed any questions while I was out either on the forum or the PM system, please re-ask them. My computer was down for a week. I don't know what I might have missed.

[Guest]

I made a weird observation the other day. I played a mini bac table which was already mid shoe.

No scoreboards so I copied the prior hands from another player. I won a bunch of units and was waiting for the next shuffle.

I didnt notice but there was no shuffler so they brought out new boxed cards. The dealer actually

did a wash before hand shuffling. It was a bogus wash but a wash none the less.

So there was a table going next to me that was using an automatic shuffler. So I moved over to finish my

play at the other table. I was kind of thrown for a loop as to how the wash would aaffect

the randomness. So I made the quick decision figuring that the auto shuffler would have

been holding whatever bias was there and all Inwould have to do

was wait and figure out what the bias was.

Should I have been worried about the wash? I dont know, but I found it

strange that Under the pressure of live play I chose to use the auto shuffled

game.

Just taken off guard, thats all.

Comments?

Kramden, first, thanks for your help in this matter. I'll do you a favor in return with this post.

Kramden! We PREFER new freshly washed cards and we prefer hand shuffled whether Bac or BJ.

In BJ it causes random cards which are easy to beat with plain basic strategy.

In Bac it causes OTB4L shoes - sometimes even S40 shoes but never F.

I always start at play 2 at such tables with a repeat bet because they so strongly favor OTB4L.

You've been a member since June 2012. Don't you recall all the discussion about Holleywood casino when Keith and I closed down their midibac table by winning every shoe for several days. It was hand shuffled new cards fresh wash every shoe. We simply played OTB4L U1D2 and both hit +20 or more every shoe. The casino Mgr knew we were using their casino for our Saturday seminar so on Friday he didn't just shut our table down - he physically removed it from the casino!

AND, Don't you recall my discussion about Gold Coast Tunica?

I won every session for 3 years averaging +20 per shoe by strictly playing new cards freshly washed early every morning. After 2 shoes I changed to a new table just opening with freshly washed cards. I don't think I ever lost a shoe for 3 years. That is how dependable freshly washed cards usually are. Whenever you get a chance to play them, jump on it! OTB4L!

[Ice Cool Sam]

Hi Oz

look. I don't understand why this forum can not and will not take even the smallest criticism. Regardless of it being constructive or not.

I have no anger management issues mate and to be honest this is really rude and offensive. Maybe you should put yourself in a beginners shoe and you will realize I have no Anger Management issues.

All I am saying is IMAGINE you are a beginner in this. You read the manual 3 times. Then you come to the forum with 12+ thousand posts. It is so confusing and so painful. Wouldn't you get mad? Ellis is saying that he hasn't read the manual since he wrote it many years ago.

I don't know really. I just feel so bad. You know what people say before you want to buy a product and what it turns out after the purchase could sometimes be so different.

I do apologize to anyone if I have seemed to offend anyone but this forum is surely isn't designed for a beginner and it's not what I thought it would be.

Sam...You appear to have serious "Anger Management" issues.

I could have answered every question you asked...but after the way that you spoke to guys that have mentored me and freely gave of their valuable time in guiding me and turning me into a winner ...quite frankly ...I couldn't be arsed.

You need to sort out your attitude probs ...maybe apologise to the Forum and start afresh (without that chip on your shoulder)

Please don't take offence at this post...but it is something that needed to be said and understood (that is if you really do want to join the list of "WINNERS" at BTC)

Oz

[Sport]

hey sambo,this is my second request.what is your age,education,where do you reside,and what casinos do you frequent!JUST THINK ABOUT THIS:IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE MAD AT ANYONE,YOU SHOULD BE MAD AT YOUR GRAMMAR SCHOOL AND ALL OF ITS TEACHERS,THEY GAVE YOU A POOR EDUCATION!

[Guest]

Only complete amateurs start at play 1.

Look guys, it is not God like to start at play 2. It is casino savvy which we have thoroughly discussed in the NOR+ threads.

First it is pure stupid to start early with new preshuffled cards. But, when they don't change the cards you are playing the very same shoe again. It is most likely the same shoe type as last time so you start with the same system that worked best last shoe. You already have an advantage at play 2, however small because you know what system to start with.

With regular cards you must go by shoe color. That is why we always note the shoe color at the top of our cards. Usually both colors play the same but sometimes they play different and we end up playing one system on the red shoe and a different system on the blue shoe. But once we've played a color we know which system to play on each color. And once you know what system to play you might as well start at play 2. You are USUALLY right and that's what winning at Baccarat is about - USUALLY being right. As I've said before - they should call this game USUALLY.

So OK you walk in the casino. You should have no thoughts about which system to play. You can look at all the tote boards W/O breaking stride. Which shows the strongest bias? Chop and streak are obvious. OTB4L you look at the strength of the 2nd and third lines. Pick the strongest bias you can find and IF you can find a strong bias, which you usually can, jump in. You already know which system to play. If you can't find a bias - don't play.

Granted it is only a partial shoe but using this casino strategy EVERY MEMBER here should ALWAYS win their first partial shoe. And it is critically important to do so - BECAUSE it sets the tone for the day. After following this strategy, If you lose the first shoe, GO HOME - you are in no shape to play.

Now comes the second shoe! If it is the same preshuffled cards it is most likely the same system so you can start at play 2. But if regular cards, now you are playing the other color. Give it a few plays, is it the same OR NOT? But once you've played the second color you know what both shoes are doing.

Now, what is happening with the other players? Are they winning or losing. If they are losing the cards will NOT likely change from shoe to shoe.

BUT if everyone is winning you can expect the next shoe to be drastically different.

I've said all of this before. It has nothing to do with God other than you are using your God given brain. It is pure casino savvy. Either you've got it or you'll lose. Plain and simple.

Now compare this behavior with the amateur. He walks in and takes the first empty seat he sees. That is exactly why they lose at record rates.

Which are you???

[Guest]

Ice, the first thing you need to learn to be a good player is live in the real world. Face reality. Deal in fact. Don't kid yourself. Everyone is confused when they first start out - that's normal. Sure the forum could be arranged better after the fact but no one wants to take on that task.

I don't know what Bac forums you've been on but I can certainly guess. We are not like that here. At BTC we are all adults. We ALL respect each other. We are the best Bac players in the world.

Learning how to beat casinos is hard enough W/O disturbances.

Oz is one of our best players. He lives in the real world - Australia in fact. He tells it like it is.

If Oz says something's wrong with you, believe it, something is wrong with you. Every member here knows it.

Don't live in denial. Fix it!

Do what everyone here has told you. Start over on the right foot. Join the group. We are a team here.

[kramden]

Thanks Mr. Ellis,

You know, I was so taken off guard that I decided to avoid rather that play the

washed shoe. I am so used to playing continually shuffled shoes , with nice success, that I admit

I forgot about the effect of a wash on bac shoes. I did remember about blackjack

but couldnt remember bac. I couldnt remember if the wash randomizes the pre packaged

cards. So I chose the logical approach "to me" at the time and played the other table.

I admit its my fault for having a memory loss. I know there is no excuse for getting too

comfortable.

It turned out to be a very good trip anyway.

Thank you and I will reread those posts.

kramden