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MDB+ Rules Simplified


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Judging from the questions, most are getting the rules right. Some are not.

Therefore, I'll explain it again in a more simplified way.

I'll be explaining it based on the standard way we fill out a score card.

So if you are a brand new MDB member, learn our score card method first. Just examine any posted scorecard.

MDB+ is designed for preshuffled cards. It will work best in NEW preshuffled cards such as all Vegas touch games.

Touch games means the players touch the cards and turn them over theirselves.

We do not bet very often at all with MDB+ so it is important to play in touch games with other players who are playing every hand which is nearly all touch games.

While we don't bet often, every bet we make has a high advantage (hit rate). Our 1 bets have a high advantage. Our 2 bets have an even higher advantage. And thanks to Lou, who has been tracking our 3rd bets, our 3rd bet has about a 2 to 1 advantage making it the highest advantage bet in the history of gaming.

Therefore, I'm making our official progession for MDB+ 124 once you know MDB+ thoroughly. This gives us +1 units for every bet we win.

And instead of making our goal +5, I'm making the goal "Win the shoe!"

It was pointed out that trying to hit +5 can cause you to start questionable progressions too late in the shoe.

This is particularly true of our 6th bet - betting that 4s will go to 5. This progression should ONLY be started before play 40. This means that betting 4s will go to 5 will be our rarest (least frequent) progression.

But, yes, I do think that this progression should be played IF we can start it before play 40

BECAUSE preshuffled cards tend to be high in 5 iars (in a row).

MDB+ has 3 bet triggers:

1.) a second confirmed 2

2.) a second confirmed 3

3.) a second confirmed 4

The 2 events can be back to back (consecutive) such as a 22 or a 33 or a 44

OR they can be split apart such as a 212, a 3113 or a 4214

We are actually betting our 124 progression that the shoe cannot produce 5 of a trigger event W/O producing ONE neighboring event.

The neighboring events to a pair of 2s are 1's and 3+s. (3 or mores)

The neighboring events to a pair of 3s are 2s and 4+s.

The neighboring events to a pair of 4s are 3s and 5+s.

Any time we win a bet that progression is over so we are looking for another pair to start a new progression.

But recognize that it is possible, even likely, that we will have multiple 124 progressions going at the same time.

For instance, a trigger of 22 would start us betting a 124 prog that the next 2 will go to 3

But it would also start us betting a separate 124 progression that the next potential 1 will stay 1.

We can only bet on a neighboring event if it did not occur between the triggering pair.

For instance: a 212 we cannot yet bet on 1's but we CAN bet that the next 2 goes to 3.

A 2122: NOW we have 2 2s W/O a 1 so we can bet separate 124 progs ON both 1s and 3s.

Another for instance: 313 - we can bet on both 2s and 4s with separate 124 progs; that 2s stay 2 AND that 3s go to 4+.

Recognize with that 313 we don't bet that 2nd 3 goes to 4. We bet the NEXT 3 goes to 4.

But if the circles thus far are 2321, we do bet that the last 1 stays 1 because we have 2 confirmed 2s W/O a 1.

BTW, a pair of 3s does NOT trigger betting on 1's because 1's are NOT a neighboring event to 3s.

It sounds a lot harder when you write it down than it actually is. Just remember what we are betting our 124 prog that the shoe cannot produce 5 of the same trigger events W/O producing any neighboring events.

Let's look at some more examples:

3243: We have no bet yet because the shoe produced BOTH neighboring events

324313: Now we can bet a 124 prog that 3s go to 4 AND we can bet the next 2 stays 2. We get 3 chances on both 124 progs.

Any 22 or 33 or 44 we can bet on BOTH neighbors. But we only bet on 5s (that 4s go to 5) if the 2 4s occurred before play 40.

OK, here are the rules in a nut shell:

MDB+ has 6 bets: We bet a 124 prog on these 6 opportunities

1.) A pair of 2s W/O a 1 between we bet potential 1's stay 1.

2.) A pair of 2s W/O a 3 between we bet 2s go to 3

3.) A pair of 3s W/O a 2 between we bet 2s stay 2

4.) A pair of 3s W/O a 4 between we bet 3s go to 4

5.) A pair of 4s W/O a 3 between we bet 3s stay 3

6.) A pair of 4s before play 40 we bet 4s go to 5.

Recognize that our worst enemy is the end of the shoe. It can pop up before we finish the prog and any unfrinished prog is a losing prog.

Therefore we start at our FIRST opportunity which is usually a pair of 2s (but not always).

Yes, we would LIKE to get to +5 but not at the risk of an unfinished prog. So don't be starting progs that you might not have time to finish.

That's it!

Recognize that if you can learn to play this flawlessly, you can make a million dollars.

So, what are your questions?

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From the rules you list have you changed regarding the NEW RULE that it needed 3 2's w/o a 1 between to bet that 1 stays 1? Have I messed a post somewhere?

Correct, I went back to the original rules. But let's keep an eye on whether we need a third 2 or not. Math says no. But Baccarat often defies Math. I'm thinking that requiring a third 2 may do more harm than good.

I appreciate gman's reminder that there are a lot of 2s. And we may end up going back to a third 2 for that very reason. On average there are twice as many 1's as 2s so on average it is very "Mathematically" sound to bet there will be a 1 before there are 5 2s.

If we make the requirement 3 2s before we bet on 1's the question is how many winning bets do we miss because we did that???

Certainly waiting for only 2 2s will usually be enough. But we definitely need to monitor that bet.

Another thought is to count connected 2s such as 22 or 222 as ONE 2. But first lets make sure such a change actually helps us long term. That would negate the harm a TT run could cause. I think that might make a better rule.

And on a given day at a given table we may need to react to a bombardment of 2s. I think the above would be the best way to do that. But I don't think we should yet penalize ourselves in every shoe for what happens in occassional shoes. The question of the day is how occassional is occassional especially with new preshuffled cards. But, for sure, let's monitor it.

BTW, sorry I was gone so long - I had an issue with the heart cath drugs they gave me.

Let's try it with 2 2's first and go from there.

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The Mathematics of 5 of a kind:

We know full well from experience that NOR does not do well against preshuffled cards - particularly NEW preshuffled cards.

Why? Because NOR is a bias system and preshuffled cards lack the strong biases we are used to with regular cards. Preshuffled cards are too random to support NOR.

Why? Because casinos buy cards in specific card orders and they believe random cards can't be beat. Obviously they are right, at least for the majority of players, because casino Baccarat profits have increased with the advent of preshuffled cards.

But, as I have told you many times before, Random is a bias in itself and a random bias can be beat.

How? Basically by betting against strong biases - that the cards will not produce a strong lasting bias.

We are betting that events will be close to their mathematical norm.

That SAP counts will be close to equal for all events.

That low SAP counts will tend to catch up and high SAP counts will tend to fade back to normal.

What are SAP counts?

A weighted count of each event relative to its mathematical normal frequency of occurrence.

What is an event?

1 iars (in a rows) 2 iars, 3 iars, and 4+ iars.

See, normally:

1's occur every 4 plays

2s every 8 plays

3s every 16 plays

4s every 32 plays

We call this the 50% rule. It is a mathematical fact of life.

We are betting that the shoe will not be too far flung from its mathematical normal frequency of events.

So, with 5 of a kind we are betting that the shoe cannot produce 5 of the same event before producing ONE of its neighboring events.

Such as a series of 2s and 3s with no 1's.

Such as 2323232323. That is an extremely strong bias. OTB4L would win every progression at either the 1 or 2 bet level and Kill the shoe.

But preshuffled cards defy OTB4L. They are too random. We simply don't see 25 plays W/O a 1 in preshuffled cards like we do with regular cards.

Yes, 5 of a kind would lose a progression to the above sequence but the likehood of seeing such a sequence in random preshuffled cards is virtually nil. They are too random to produce a sequence that non random.

Throw a 1 in there virtually any place and we win. Throw a 4 in and we win on that as well

Such as 232132421323212

Now the sequence is just slightly closer to random and we win 5 units with a highest bet of 1 unit. See that? Anything remotely close to random and we win.

We are using the casino's own strategy against them. Random CAN be beat!

I don't care what Mathematicians say. They don't play cards. I DO!

And the more random they make the cards, the more we win.

How's that for turning the tables on them?

And whether BJ or Bac, that is what successful gambling is all about - using their own strategy against them.

So, will the casinos react?

Ha, of course not!

They don't care if we win as long as they can beat everybody else. And they CAN.

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Ellis,

After 2 or 3 events in a row and you bet 1's stay 1's ie: 2421 then bet that the 1 stays 1. Do you have the most confidence in that bet? In my limited experience with MDB +, it seems like this is the bet that wins all the time. If it doesn't win on your first bet, it will with the prog.

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I have a few questions.

1 - In the following plays 2 3 3 2 1. After the second 3 would you be betting that 2s stay 2 and 3s go to 4?

After the second 2 would you be betting also that 1s stay 1?

2 - Now the kicker if along with MDB+ you are playing as a companion game NOR, NOR+ or MDB (one of those three systems) and you got to a bet in one of those three systems and MDB+ where in one of those systems you should be betting player and in MDB+ you should be betting banker, what do you do. Net bet, Zero bet or what? Then how do you bet after that play?

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Ellis, I have a question about using a second indicator twice. Example; 123313.

Do the rules state that I am to use the second #3 as the first part of a new series of two 3's or not as it has already been used as a set of two 3's? Or, should I wait for the third 3 to have another 3 appear after it to comnence a new indicator of two 3's? In short, can you use the same indicator twice or not?

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Ellis, I have a question about using a second indicator twice. Example; 123313.

Do the rules state that I am to use the second #3 as the first part of a new series of two 3's or not as it has already been used as a set of two 3's? Or, should I wait for the third 3 to have another 3 appear after it to comnence a new indicator of two 3's? In short, can you use the same indicator twice or not?

Not sure I follow your terminology but given your example 123313 - you just lost a 1 bet because you would have bet that last 3 stayed 2. Now you are going to bet 1 unit that the last 3 goes to 4 and 2 units that the next 2 stays 2.

The fact that you just had a 2 just before the first pair of 3s might make me a little hesitent to bet on another 2 so quick. So I probably would not have bet that last 3 stayed 2. I would have waited for another 2. That would make the prog more of a sure thing.

Even though the system is mechanical, you are still allowed to use your head.

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I got a call about my terminology. What did I mean by a "potential 1".

And what does "confirmed" 2 mean?

Recognize that we don't know that a 2 iar is a 2 until the next play.

If we have a 22 thus far on our card, we don't know that last 2 is a 2 until the next play "confirms" the 2 stayed 2. It might just as easily go 3.

So we don't know it is 22 until it goes 221.

Now that last 1 is a potential 1 because it might stay 1 (in which case we win our 1 bet) and it might go 2 in which case we would wait for an opposite and bet 2 units that the opposite stays 1. (We can only bet on 1's after an opposite - see that?) (Half of all plays are Opposites and half are Repeats.)

So the shortest sequence wherein we could lose our 124 prog betting on 1's after 2 2s W/O a 1 between is 22222. The odds of that are once in 32 shoes. Any longer sequence our odds are even greater. Such as 23232. Now our odds become one in 128 shoes.

So yes, waiting for 3 2s before we bet on 1's increases our odds of winning our 124 progression. BUT it reduces the number of progressions we bet. That is why I say waiting for a 3rd 2 might do us more harm than good.

But the key word there is "might".

The reason I hesitate has nothing to do with Math (Math alone says don't hesitate.)

BUT, I also KNOW that casinos cheat.

The event the casinos make the most money on is 2s.

Therefore if I were working for the casinos (which I actually turned down) instead of you guys, I would tell them to make sure their preshuffled cards are high in 2s. (guaranteed casino win).

THAT is why I hesitate - because of casino cheating - which has nothing to do with Math and everything to do with cheating.

THAT is why way2fast is fearful of betting on 1's at all, let alone after only 2 2s.

But I also know that casinos cheat by producing high 1's as well as high 2s.

Why do they do that?

Because they are smart and they know that there are far more Repeat bettors than Opposite bettors.

So yes, casinos like to produce high 2s - which alone says wait for 3 2s.

BUT, they like to produce high 1's even more - which says bet on 1's as soon as possible.

Time will tell.

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I have a few questions.

1 - In the following plays 2 3 3 2 1. After the second 3 would you be betting that 2s stay 2 and 3s go to 4?

After the second 2 would you be betting also that 1s stay 1?

Hi Steve, correct, so you would win your 1 bets at plays 11 and 12 if the 1 stays 1.

2 - Now the kicker if along with MDB+ you are playing as a companion game NOR, NOR+ or MDB (one of those three systems) and you got to a bet in one of those three systems and MDB+ where in one of those systems you should be betting player and in MDB+ you should be betting banker, what do you do. Net bet, Zero bet or what? Then how do you bet after that play?

Well, if I were playing MDB+, that means it is a touch game - new preshuffled cards. So my companion game would not be NOR or MDB which are both designed for regular cards. For a companion game played to get them to deal the cards I would net bet either PvB or OvR whichever is closer thus far which bets pretty much every hand from play#2. And in this case probably PvB. But I would net bet for lesser stakes - perhaps quarters for net betting PvB while playing MDB+ for blacks.

One reason is because net betting gets to larger bets at some point. A 6 unit net bet is comparable to a 1.5 unit MDB+bet. But also because this way the systems don't interfere with each other. I can simply subtract one bet from the other when they are at opposites with each other.

I would net bet U1D2M2 to keep it safe but if the tables has been consistently running very close, I might consider U1D1M2 and only go down 2 on the higher net bets. I would also be looking to quit net betting at +8 or 12 adding 2 or 3 MDB+ units to my overall endeavor. That is an easy goal for net betting.

So even if I quit MDB+ at +3 or +4, I'm looking for an overall win of 5 - 7 $100 units while playing both systems extremely safely but also ideally. See that?

We are taking advantage of the fact that both OvR and PvB tend to run closer in preshuffled cards than in regular cards - while also taking advantage of the fact that new preshuffled cards tend to be less biased. So we are overall playing about as ideally as the game can be played.

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What about ties in new preshuffled cards? If ties are considerably less than the 1 in 10 normal thus far in the shoe, shouldn't we be betting that ties will catch up to normal???

Look, for all practical purposes, when we are playing against new preshuffled cards we are playing against designer shoes. Some casino expert designed the shoe to be unbeatable my making all the event frequencies work out to their normal frequencies of occurrence. That is what we are in effect betting on. But no designer in his right mind is going to design high ties into a shoe. The mathematical odds of a tie are still 1 in 10 no matter how many ties occurred or didn't occur thus far. And they only pay 8 to 1 against a frequency of 10 to 1 making ties still about the worst bet in the casino regardless of how they stand thus far. Still want to bet them?

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Ellis, can you please post for us a sample card playing a shoe net betting/MDB+ so we can see how you would play both at the same time? Would like to see how the bets don't interfere with each other. Would also like to see what you would do with a straight long run when net betting? Thanks.

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