high stakes $500 and up wagers | ECD GROUP | March 26, 2015

[ECD]

Asking opinions. For those of you that bet the higher wagers, are you more conservative with your progressions or do you flat bet? I figure if you are betting with higher wages you don't need to win much to have a real good day.

[ECD]

I mostly flat bet but in some circumstances go to 2 units...but NEVER...EVER do I bet higher than 2 units

[ECD]

I mostly flat bet but in some circumstances go to 2 units...but NEVER...EVER do I bet higher than 2 units

Wise advice from Oz.

The only time I bet > 2 units is the 4 unit bet in MDB+. In over 200 shoes of actual play history, that bet wins 76% of the time. So with that knowledge, it is a bet I'm OK with. Nonetheless, as my unit size keeps increasing, I am looking at ways to modify MDB+ to reduce the number of times the 4 unit bet comes up, or possibly to eliminate it all together.

First, I have already changed my play to require an event to occur three times (4x in case of consecutive second liners) before startin a progression. This has significantly increased the win rate of the first and second bets, with a corresponding decrease in the frequency of the 4 unit bet. Yes, I am taking fewer signals, but I am betting less and winning more with higher units.

I have also toyed with other options to the 124 progression, which would eliminate the 4 unit bet. Still trying different ideas on previous shoes as I do not want any change to recude the 90%+ win rate on signals.

The higher your unit, the more you need to play for safety first and you must be incredibly disciplined with win goals and stop losses.

[ECD]

Very good advice and thank you. Did you ever do that "1-2" loop that had been mentioned here?

Wise advice from Oz.

The only time I bet > 2 units is the 4 unit bet in MDB+. In over 200 shoes of actual play history, that bet wins 76% of the time. So with that knowledge, it is a bet I'm OK with. Nonetheless, as my unit size keeps increasing, I am looking at ways to modify MDB+ to reduce the number of times the 4 unit bet comes up, or possibly to eliminate it all together.

First, I have already changed my play to require an event to occur three times (4x in case of consecutive second liners) before startin a progression. This has significantly increased the win rate of the first and second bets, with a corresponding decrease in the frequency of the 4 unit bet. Yes, I am taking fewer signals, but I am betting less and winning more with higher units.

I have also toyed with other options to the 124 progression, which would eliminate the 4 unit bet. Still trying different ideas on previous shoes as I do not want any change to recude the 90%+ win rate on signals.

The higher your unit, the more you need to play for safety first and you must be incredibly disciplined with win goals and stop losses.

[brad01]

It appears the most successful players only bet 1 - 4 units max. Its looking morel like possibly 2 max.

Looks like the way to go for high units and avoids commission and banker 6 wins on no commission tables.

oz with flat bets and 2 max, way with mdb 4 max, norm with 2 units max, ellis with 4 max in his nor public play.

whats a 1-2 loopback? just a 1,2 negative progression timing it on instinct and experience I'm guessing?

In theory if you do well with flat bet then you can do even better with negative progression but in practise it appears people rely on the negative progression rather than stop loss and superior bet selection.

Frank Barstow said in his book the few pros he met used a very small simple progression with tight stop loss and patient bet selection.

[ECD]

I was speaking with one of the more successful players on this forum. He told me that he had been betting 1,2,1,2,1,2 etc. regardless of a win or a loss. I have used it several times with success. It just seems that every time I lost it was to a 2 bet. The intriguing thing to it is that if you manage to get on an extended run you can clean up. It also can take you down to your stop loss quicker as well.

It appears the most successful players only bet 1 - 4 units max. Its looking morel like possibly 2 max.

Looks like the way to go for high units and avoids commission and banker 6 wins on no commission tables.

oz with flat bets and 2 max, way with mdb 4 max, norm with 2 units max, ellis with 4 max in his nor public play.

whats a 1-2 loopback? just a 1,2 negative progression timing it on instinct and experience I'm guessing?

In theory if you do well with flat bet then you can do even better with negative progression but in practise it appears people rely on the negative progression rather than stop loss and superior bet selection.

Frank Barstow said in his book the few pros he met used a very small simple progression with tight stop loss and patient bet selection.

[ECD]

Very good advice and thank you. Did you ever do that "1-2" loop that had been mentioned here?

Yes. I use a 1,2 loop (1,2,1,2,1,2, etc) with Streak Play (see separate thread where I posted my initial rules for chop/streak 2Hi system). The Streak Play is a net betting, but the loosing side drops off quickly so the 1,2, loop really takes advantage of the streaks.

I also use it frequently when playing S40 or OTBL when winning multiple bets in a row.

[ECD]

I was speaking with one of the more successful players on this forum. He told me that he had been betting 1,2,1,2,1,2 etc. regardless of a win or a loss. I have used it several times with success. It just seems that every time I lost it was to a 2 bet. The intriguing thing to it is that if you manage to get on an extended run you can clean up. It also can take you down to your stop loss quicker as well.

Hi McVince, Norm used to play the 1,2,1,2.... but he would also pause and not bet until he saw certain set-ups. You are right that one of the downsides is winning the 1 and losing the 2. When you get that started it seems like it just won't stop. I've seen Norm encounter this and he would often stop if that pattern occured 1-2 times, and wait fo a new set up to restart. Maybe that would help you?

Where are you playing and how are you playing Bac?

[ECD]

I am playing in the North East (Parx PA, Sands PA, AC). I am playing mostly NOR sprinkled with some MDB+. I approach the NOR method a bit differently . I am trying to bet conservative but revert back to my aggressive style of betting. I have had some good success with it but the bad thing is when you lose you lose big. Do you play NOR at all or are you strictly MDB+?

Hi McVince, Norm used to play the 1,2,1,2.... but he would also pause and not bet until he saw certain set-ups. You are right that one of the downsides is winning the 1 and losing the 2. When you get that started it seems like it just won't stop. I've seen Norm encounter this and he would often stop if that pattern occured 1-2 times, and wait fo a new set up to restart. Maybe that would help you?

Where are you playing and how are you playing Bac?

[ECD]

I was speaking with one of the more successful players on this forum. He told me that he had been betting 1,2,1,2,1,2 etc. regardless of a win or a loss. I have used it several times with success. It just seems that every time I lost it was to a 2 bet. The intriguing thing to it is that if you manage to get on an extended run you can clean up. It also can take you down to your stop loss quicker as well.

OK...The use of the 1 2 loop should not take you even close to your STOP LOSS. It should only be used when already in a plus situation in the shoe. You either need to be flat betting or using some sort of small progression until you are up at least 1 or 2 units. Personally...I prefer to be at a minimum +4 units before switching to the loop. And you are right...the loop doesn't need a huge run to cream the shoe.

I only use the 1 2 loop when I am already in front when netbetting and the shoe is giving a strong indication to drop either OTB4L or TB4L.(more often than not, the shoe will say to drop both and switch to S40M2 or S40M3) If I lose both the 1 and 2 bets in the loop first up...I stop and wait for further confirmation of the shoe direction (bias). If I win my 1 bets and lose two successive 2 bets, I will revert to a 1 2 progression and watch for signs to revert back to the 1 2 loop. Once the loop is in progress...I stick religiously to the half decade rule (ok...I lie...I actually mean -6 units) and also if I hit the same high 3 times in the 2nd or 3rd columns...I take that as a sign to collect my winnings and get outta there.

Note: There are many times when the shoe will indicate that it is time to put a brake on the system that you are using before you hit the -6 units and either switch or in most cases...STOP and WAIT...and watch for signs.

Also...In my case, once I am on the loop...if I have hit the minimum I require of +4 units...my STOP LOSS automatically becomes at worst -2 units. If I hit +6 units...I can't lose the shoe because I won't go below 0.

It's all about money management...discipline and self control. The quickest way to the poorhouse is to chase your losses.

[brad01]

Can I ask a stupid question - I thought a 1,2 progression was the same as the 1,2 loopback?

Would I be right in saying that a 1, 2 progression you flat bet until win and the bet a 2, and then go back to 1 until you win another bet?

Is the 1,2 loopback just like a U1D1M2 2Hi ? - bet 1,2 continuously ?

They are both similar but not quite the same ?

Not sure it really even matters? Maybe I am over thinking a 1,2 progression - I'm not sure?

[ECD]

I am playing in the North East (Parx PA, Sands PA, AC). I am playing mostly NOR sprinkled with some MDB+. I approach the NOR method a bit differently . I am trying to bet conservative but revert back to my aggressive style of betting. I have had some good success with it but the bad thing is when you lose you lose big. Do you play NOR at all or are you strictly MDB+?

I use the NOR concepts - S40; OTBL; TBL; Strong side, but don't currently play NOR as a full system as described in the manual. I am playing MDB+, as well as opportunistically looking for shore betting sequences using these "NOR" methods. I really don't want to be betting every hand, or even the majority of the hands oin the shoe -- although I wil sometimes utilize a companion game to MDB+ usinf the chop/streak methods I have posted about.