BR Management

[brad01]

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.â€

― Albert Einstein

BR is any amount you are prepared to put up as your playing fund - 10 Units (Low) - 100 Units (High)

Unit Size is size per bet as a % of BR - 2% (Low) - 5% (High) - (commonly in this range)

Compounding % - the point you increase unit size as a result of your increased bankroll - 25% - 100% Commonly

You should also decrease your unit size when losses cause a decrease in bankroll to protect it.

You only need a small edge to win - 52%

A 55 - 56% edge when combined with compound interest can give you a massive ROI

The power of compound interest is the difference why some players will always be part time hobby players and some will be full time pros

A couple of calculations next post to show the power of this in practise and how quickly you could equal the average income with correct BR management and only a small winning % edge (52%)

[brad01]

Sports betters by the way appear to have the strictest and successful BR management.

They have to be able to ride out tough times

They can do their stats correctly and select all the right bets and still lose on the day.

[brad01]

Example of compound interest in practice:

20 unit bankroll - target 2 - 3 units per session - 7 sessions per week - 20 unit weekly target (double bankroll weekly)

Week 1 - 20 units @ $5

Week 2 - 40 units @ $5 or 20 units @ $10

Week 3 - 80 units @$5 or 20 units @ $20

Week 4 - 160 units @ $5 or 20 units @ $40

Week 5 - 320 units @ $5 or 20 units @ $80

Week 6 - 640 units @ $5 or 20 units @ $160

Week 7 - 1280 units @ $5 or 20 units @ $320

Week 8 - 2560 units @ $5 or 25 units @ $500 - TABLE LIMIT of $500

Compound % = 100% (increase unit size when bankroll doubles)

Next post to show compound % at 25% of BR and how much quicker I can reach table limit of $500 using the power of compound interest

This is plan I'm implementing on roulette - titled MDR - Million Dollar Roulette

Currently at +16 units in first week no losses no losing sessions - compound rate at 100% at moment but considering changing to 25%

Using MDB+ triggers and NOR bias to get a very high % hit rate - 60% - 100% all flat bet.

[brad01]

Example of compound interest in practice:

20 unit bankroll - target 2 - 3 units per session - 7 sessions per week - 20 unit weekly target (double bankroll weekly)

Week 1 - 20 units @ $5

5 bets at $5 = $125 or 125% BR so compound to next level

4 bets at $6.25 (average so make 3 @$6.50 and 2 @ $6.5) = $150 so compound to next level

4 Bets @ $7.50 (average 2 bets @ $7.50 and 2 bets @ $5) = $175 so compound to next level

3 bets @ $8.75 (average 2 bets @ $8.5 and 1 bet @ $8) = 100% of BR so go up to next level

Total bets for level 1 with a 25% compound level = 16 bets vs 20 bets to reach next level with a compound at 25%

So if we apply the same thing all the way through the levels then we will get to the same $ with 16 x 8 = 128 bets vs 20 x 8 = 160

That's 32 bets less or with an average of 2 - 3 units per session that's either 14 sessions you have to play or you can reach your total 2 weeks quicker whichever you value more - $ or time.

The question to be asked is will you decrease your unit size with a losing session at the same rate as you increase it?

Or will you have enough confidence in winning more sessions than you lose to leave it the same and recover from your losses quicker?

There is varied opinion on this and the less risky way would be to decrease to protect your BR in which case you sometimes will feel like you are going backwards with a few losing sessions

The point is if you have an edge over a 50 / 50 game it only needs to be very small when used with powerful BR management

With all the teachings on this site and patience I don't believe it is that hard to gain a better than 50/50 edge

At the % of BR I'm playing at - 5% (which is high actually) I can walk out with a 1 unit win only and still know that I've increased my BR by 5%

In this way its easier for me to walk out a winner when my % is close to 50% and my score is + and - and I just cant seem to pick the bias right - I'd rather walk out a 1 unit winner than a loser as I know 5% is a lot in the whole scheme of things

Most people would not be satisfied with that which is why most people walk out losers.

We are up against a monster with an unlimited BR, the odds slightly against us by the numbers and a lot against us mentally and psychologically - we have to stick to the plan.

[brad01]

A few numerical errors in the below but I think you get the point.

By doing this and remembering this you are taking away a big psychological issue against you - you have to bet big and win big each session to win a lot of money.

This is what the casinos rely on and why most people walk out losers

[scaldedcat]

Very interesting Brad, and good luck with how it goes.

As you say, with what you've learnt, getting that small edge shouldn't be a problem so hopefully all will go well.

[scaldedcat]

Late over here at the moment so bit tired, hence my last post was a bit garbled but I hope you know what I meant

[brad01]

Hi Tim, well I'm just following what our fellow Aussie member Oz did.

Its a big inspiration that he is from Australia and has gone from nothing to where he is.

There's a lot of people trying to work out his secret but I think I have - KISS

He often describes what he does as boring as hell and you know what most successful businesses are

Boring means you have a winning formula and it works so solid that you just do it over and over again.

I was reading a sports betting article about a famous investor / financier and he would only look to lend money to 'boring' businesses

He knew those ones were secure - the exciting ones were the risk takers where they might get lucky but at the risk of financial ruin.

He knew better than to invest in those.

Keep practising mate you can get there too - if you can walk away with 1 unit most times worst case and limit your losing sessions and losing scores you can make it.

[scaldedcat]

Hi Brad, thanks for the words of confidence. What my biggest obstacle my be is the fact that being a paraplegic I am not able to get around too much nowadays so online play is pretty much my only source of play.

I know there has been a lot of discussion how different casino's shuffle the cards and when etc, so was just wondering what you or others thought of the online games and whether they would still be suitable to win at consistently.

Cheers

[brad01]

Hi tim. There is just a post in our private forum of member doing very well online. Yes online live dealer casinos are ok. Maybe not all. But s some at least. There are opportunities there for you

[MVSeahog]

I know there has been a lot of discussion how different casino's shuffle the cards and when etc, so was just wondering what you or others thought of the online games and whether they would still be suitable to win at consistently.

Cheers

Scaldedcat,

I can assure you (for what its worth) that you can win money in online play at baccarat. I personally do NOT play the RNG games and stick strictly to the online, LIVE dealers. I do not play at every new casino that comes online. I don't chase around the online casino world.

If you find a reputable online, LIVE dealer casino, check it out completely. Read and re-read their banking agreement. If you don't like it, don't play there. If it does seem like you can live with it, you can make a minimum deposit to play on, just to get comfortable with the environment.

If the game just doesn't seem right while playing, just quit and come back later or another day. I won't play when the video/sync is messed up or I keep getting freeze frames, although the game continues to play and I win a few more hands. I want it to my satisfaction and if it isn't right, I just come back later.

Also, online you can watch the tote board and jump in when you feel the time is right. If I log in, see what appears to be a really poor shoe in progress, then there's no need to stick around!

Good luck with your choice.

MVS

[scaldedcat]

Thanks for your reply MVS, I was hoping that was the case. I have had some experience with live online casino's with several types and they do seem to be ok. Payouts etc made quickly etc so makes it much easier for someone like me to still be able to play the game.

Thanks again

Tim