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S40M1 v 2-2-1 Repeats

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Hi everyone

Here is a pre-shuffled cards shoe I played yesterday


I played S40M1 and came out +38 units by almost always flat betting

I also entered the shoe in the "Stats for profit" website and played the shoe using 2-2-1 repeats

Playing that way the result was +48 units

I suppose either way is a brilliant outcome and it shows us that there are different ways to play a shoe

which is streaky.

If I had played NOR and responded to each and every change in the shoe, I possibly could have done

better with the 2's, but it was still a great outcome.

Today there were no shoes even remotely like this one.

By the way the "Stats for profit" website is a very valuable tool for analysing shoes. I recommend

it to all members.







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wow look at the long events

I don't see many straights past 6 in the shoes I play

Mostly 3's and 4's

ZZ's are a bit more normal

I guess that could be due to the preshuffled event distribution they have the streaks weighted a little too far towards the high end

Notice still a few MDB+ opportunites in there.

But I can see why you would stick to S40M1

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I always look out for MDB+ bets if they arise, and I think the shoe is right. I don't play them automatically,

the SAP count has to reasonably balanced for me to consider an MDB+ bet.

Usually I succeed with the MDB+ bets involving 1's and 2's in a shoe like the one I posted, even if the SAP is a skewed.

Edited by Pando
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This would not be a trigger you would actively seek

If there was 8 x 2's then you should have played OTBL or SAP as many 2's means less of something maybe 3's.

But theres a chance you missed the boat as the best biases you make are usually an educated guess to go OTR and you guess right and you kill it

Its like that share price that someone told you would go from $1 up to $100 and it did - theres no point to buy it at $100 - you missed the boat and it will probably go down

Then again if  by chance see 8 x 2's I may well decide that's as far as the bias will go and I will apply the MDB+ trigger as an opportunistic bet

I don't think its generally a good idea to stretch MDB+ triggers any further than what way2fast did

If you have to stretch then that far then you missed the bias and its not an MDB+ friendly shoe

Short term NOR

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5 hours ago, zeckam said:


You are right. don'tplay mdb in my casino because the shoes are highly bias. In fact I play SAP. Chop the MC and follow the LC.

Zeek, what do you mean by chop the MC????????????

I understand about following the Least Common, but I am not sure about what you are saying about Chop the Most Common., please give me an example about what you are         referencing  about chop the MC.

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Thinking he means don't follow it - cut it off / chop it out

If he says follow LC then thinking it must mean don't follow MC

Once again 2 of the oldest theories in gambling - about the only 2 there is unless you count pot luck for bet selection:


What has just come will keep coming - Bias shoe / NOR / SAP / MC



What has just come cant keep coming - Random event shoe / MDB+ / LC / RSAP


Both can be right and wrong at any given time and sometimes at the same time.

Its like the casino has this sliding adjustment between bias and non bias and it depends where they set it - left, right or in the middle.



You could take a lucky charm or a rabbits foot or look for a 4 leaf clover!





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