# Risk vs Reward

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A short phrase I believe everyone should say to themselves and remember before they start playing AND remember while they are playing.

You walk into a casino you look around, you sit down at a table or stand on the edge of a table reviewing the tote boards for a game in play or you record a new game.

What prompts you to know when to bet?

When you see a pattern that you recognise has a good chance to repeat itself - a better than 50/50 chance

(for recreational players this doesn't apply - just throw your money on either banker or player and hope for the best. as long as you cover your drinks for the night and have a good time you've won)

So you decide to risk a unit on the pattern repeating itself - 1 unit

You lose - you were wrong - that's ok its a 50/50 game

You are only down 1 unit

Look for another pattern that you recognise and believe has a better than 50/50 chance of repeating itself

You win - you were right the pattern did repeat itself you won a unit.

Do you still believe the pattern is likely to continue? If yes then you bet another unit

The worst you can do here is break even as you are 1 unit up

But the potential is unlimited - what if the pattern repeats 5 - 10 more times

Always remember the words: Risk vs Reward

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You start playing and you get a win - good start

Then you lose - ok its a 50/50 game

But then you lose like 3 times in a row on bets you were sure would repeat

You are a little frazzled

You wait until you are really sure but you lose again

No matter what you do you just cant pick it right

You lose 1 more time and you are at -5

This is a point you recognise that historically once you get here it all goes downhill and you seldom recover

If you were to quit here and clear your mind you know that 1 or 2 average shoes you would be back in front

But you cant help thinking I hate walking away with a loss

You say its not impossible that I could just suddenly start hitting everything right and make 10 units and walk away with a profit

Miracles do happen

Or what if just this once I doubled my unit size and then I only need to make 5 units

Risk vs reward

If you lost that would be up to 6 average games to get back in front

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You start playing and you see a run of opposites

You bet opposite 1 unit

You win

The worst you can do now is break even and you cant see any reason why the run wouldn't continue

You back it again

Incredibly the run of opposites goes to 10 iar

You are up 10 units flat betting

Its half way through the shoe

You lose a bet on a repeat banker - well the run had to end eventually

You are at +9 flat betting

You decide to back the banker run and risk 1 unit

You lose

You are at +8

You have lost 2 units from the high point of +10

Damn - you would really like to get it back and end with +10

Risk vs reward

You are above your average score at just over half way through the shoe

What's the best that could happen? You could hit +10 or more

Whats the worst? You could lose a few more units and turn a good win into an average win

Or you could turn a good win into a mediocre win or a break even or a loss.

You know you would kick yourself if you got to +10 and gave it all back

There's less than half a shoe left and you've just capitalised on a massive sweet spot

You don't see runs like that often.

Risk vs reward

You cash out and commend yourself on a +8 win

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When i read your topic and think about Regression Up & Pull where you operate with casinos money after your win your first bet and can not lose it all back. The principal is very easy. You bet a higher base bet, lets say 2 units and if you win your first bet you lower your second bet to 1 unit and now operate with casino money. After that you convert to positiv progression Up & Pull where you push for more. 212234567 and so on.

This is my favorit as you can use it in many different ways, for example MDB you can be staking 224 and after winning once you add 2 units to the progression and staking 226 or 244 and after winning twice you operate with casino money and staking 112. But the risk and reward is within how many attempts you are willing to try for each staking solution. The progression would look like this 224 112 224 224 336 448 and so on.

This is how i see risk and reward when i make comparison with the original MDB. Why risk 124 for +5 units when i can bet less attempts and winning less and still operate with casino money without losing it all back. That is part of my thinking about risk and reward to be in the comfort zone pretty fast before dealing with psychological pressure.

Cheers

Edited by Sputnik
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Yes generally I prefer flat bet or up as you win but I have been shown circumstances where negative progression can work

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Is rare to find does topics where some one show how to turn 14 units to 100 units and above without risking the 14 units during the hole process towards 50/100 units profit. Flat bet and positive progression is not superior comparing to regression up & pull and not the same category - is a complete different game.

Cheers

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Before finding this site and joining I always played looking for patterns.But instead of just looking at if player or banker won I also wrote down the total score of each player and banker and if it was a natural win. I looked at previous scores,naturals even if a certain score showed up.Sometimes it worked sometimes not that's the risk part I took and some times upped my bet witch I liked to call it the brass balls bet lol. when it worked it worked well but when it didn't it hurt my bankroll. That"s why I'm here to get some consistency in my game play. In the past I have started with \$300 and won \$1500 and then started with \$500 and lost \$1000. That's is the reason you guys and gals will see me asking questions about definitions and so on, I want to fully understand the concepts/rules of the systems. And work on my discipline.

Edited by cherokee

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