Users ECD Posted June 23, 2017 Users Report Share Posted June 23, 2017 1) They are all based on Negative Progressions and sooner or later come to grief with a succession of confidence and Bankroll sapping losses. Imagine this scenario...You have done very well for yourself playing ANB and with their STOP/LOSS at -10 or worse and you have achieved a Bankroll of $100K ...we are playing with real money here so, in reality, you won't want to risk more than 5% of your total Bankroll per shoe, so that formulae allows for a unit size of $500 Shoe 1...You hit SL and lose $5K...No big deal...BR is still $95K Shoe 2...Again you hit your SL and lose another $5K...BR is reduced to $90K...You start to get a bit tetchy but you have been winning consistently, so you stick with $500 units Shoe 3...Lose another $5K...BR is down to $85K ...you know that you should be reducing your unit size but you reason that you can't possibly lose another shoe in succession so you stick with $500K units Shoe 4...Lose another $5K...BR is down to $80K...you realise that you have just lost the equivalent of two small automobiles and doubts creep in "Was I just lucky?... are all my hopes and dreams about to come crashing down?"...This time you do reduce your Unit size to $400...but before you play another shoe you replay your losing shoes and take note of why they lost and you decide to not make the same mistakes...you vary the system...You say that you won't...but trust me...with real money at stake...that is exactly what you will do. Shoe 5...Lose $4K...Your changing of the system didn't work out...if only you had stuck to the rules, you would have won...if only? BR is now $76K and it is really playing with your head...You are thinking that maybe I was lucky or...I should have reduced my unit size as per the Formulae after my first loss...you are angry at yourself, but you reason that you cant possibly lose another shoe...it just can't happen Shoe 6...But it did...You played this shoe really badly...you refused to make the big bets called because your head is screwed up and you lose again. Your confidence is shot The wise players will take a break from the game and do many hours of research and hopefully return with a more professional attitude and maybe become winners again... Some Players will make the mistake of chasing their losses and in conjunction with a screwed up head and lack of confidence...it will end badly Others will take what money they have won and take a break promising themselves that they will return to Baccarat at a future date...but they never do. How do I know this?...Because to a varying extent, I have been involved in all three scenarios. My hit rate was higher than any hit rate by all the advocated Mechanical Systems...but still I ran into the inevitable string of losses. It will happen and the feeling is crap...believe me...absolute crap. I lost my entire Bankroll in one day because I started chasing my losses rationalising that my unlucky streak had to come to an end. It did...I lost all my money. Maybe now you understand why I so aggressively pursue the charlatans offering false hope to the gullible. It's not a bad thing to want a better life...we all want that...but it is a BAD thing to make outlandish claims in order to make a few bucks...but it is a far more despicable act to encourage people's dreams only for them to be destroyed. If you take away a man's dreams...you take away a man's hope. The good news is that there is hope...I dragged myself back from the abyss with hard work...discipline and perseverance and if I can do it, so can others...many have. The tools are available on this site, but it is not an easy road to travel if you choose to take it...but by all hell...the benefits can be enormous for those willing to put in the effort BTW: Have you ever wondered why the people flogging these systems are still fart arsing around playing Reds and Greens while claiming the credit for those that have had great success?...Think about it. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baccarat Hall of Fame Member wolfat Posted June 24, 2017 Baccarat Hall of Fame Member Report Share Posted June 24, 2017 Oz, great post! I think that every seasoned player here passed through the doors you described above. I want people understand that mechanical systems fail because they cannot handle the VARIANCE. You made your homework, you beat the kitchen table with your system and... when you finally go to casino, proud of your hard work, nothing seems working for you. your prog start bringing you up and up, you miss the key decisions and... finally lose. It's not an easy way follow the shoe, everyone here made it in different ways, but if your hard work is correct, you can reduce Variance. I said "reduce" not eliminated. Variance interacts with your "follow the shoe" bets but on short term, the shoe biases take the lead on V, that's why it's more profitable take advantage of the shoe's weaknesses. Another important point is: AVOID PROGS. At worst, in medium term, also with a bad method, if you flat bet you will finish EVEN. With progs, you give to some decisions, more importance respect to some others and this, in a basically 50-50% game is wrong. Just because you lost some decisions previously, this doesn't give you the right to win the next decision.As said before, wins and losses interact with bias of the shoe, with your personal permanence and with the quality of the system you are deploying. Is it a case that the most valuable players here win flat betting? obviously we push the bets in some favorable situations, but when winning only. This is the only way to get long term winnings. A 7 Quote bacclover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted June 24, 2017 Author Users Report Share Posted June 24, 2017 1 hour ago, wolfat said: Just because you lost some decisions previously, this doesn't give you the right to win the next decision.As said before, wins and losses interact with bias of the shoe, with your personal permanence and with the quality of the system you are deploying. Is it a case that the most valuable players here win flat betting? obviously we push the bets in some favorable situations, but when winning only. This is the only way to get long term winnings. A 5 Smashed it right out of the park Wolfy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users ECD Posted June 25, 2017 Author Users Report Share Posted June 25, 2017 In the real world...very few people will have the self-control/patience to only risk 5% of their total Bankroll and will graduate to $500 units well before they hit $100K and a losing streak of 5 or 6 shoes would take over half their Bankroll and ALL their self-confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
modnar Posted June 25, 2017 Report Share Posted June 25, 2017 8 hours ago, ozscouser1 said: In the real world...very few people will have the self-control/patience to only risk 5% of their total Bankroll and will graduate to $500 units well before they hit $100K and a losing streak of 5 or 6 shoes would take over half their Bankroll and ALL their self-confidence. That's why 99.9 % of gamblers lose consistenly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.