BigVic
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Posts posted by BigVic
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You are giving BTC members way too much credit and the average gambler way too little. If the average gambler can't pick up on the dominant disparity than they shouldn't be gambling. And if the Casino are brave enough to change up the disparity hoping that these 'dunces' across the table don't pick up on it, I'd be surprise. I reckon that 90% percent of baccarat players are there to look for streaks whether if it's chops, straights, OTB4L (that specifically may be too advance for the uniformed) am I right? It's innate. That's the first thing newbie would look for (straights to be exact since that is the most obvious to look for) if they were to make a wager for the first time at the bac table, and, in time, I would also reckon they pick up on the disparity changes quite nimbly. It's just counter-intuitive in my humble opinion when you are basically playing Russian Roulette with the players across the table keeping your fingers crossed and wondering on whether anyone will pick up on it. A random shuffle should be the best policy in their case.
Unless they have some kind of recognition software and a state of the art shuffler to read and carefully place all 416 cards in their respective places (unless they have that ability already then I stand corrected) to recreate past choppy, streaky, or neutral shoes, simply finding creative ways to change up the shuffle with no cognitive intent just makes it a random act, nothing more - and a tad superstitious on their part.
Lastly, it is quite convenient to say that if all the orchestrated choppy, streaky, neutral shoes come together we would have random and does not prove for or against your theory. If only I could bring in 6 crafty dealers and designate one disparity for them to produce all day long with no end in sight then that would humble me.
Danielsan,
Any rational person would agree with what you say but you might as well be barking up at the moon for the good it will do. This is Ellis's business. He makes his livelihood selling his gambling systems which are based in no short part on his theory of the casino orchestration, ie cheating that must go on because after all people lose don't they? He gives hope to losing gamblers by promising them that their losing wasn't their fault but the cheating casinos.
Not that I completely agree or disagree with Ellis on this point, but by arguing about it on his forum you are basically just wasting your time. I hope you can see that.
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And judging by the lack of moderation response I guess that's permitted here. Sort of hypocritical but oh well.
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Asking for a copy written system without paying for it. And you're a NOR member, I don't get it.
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I think you might of missed my point. The law of large numbers GUARANTEES that there will be biases and oddities in the short term. I thought that was obvious and was trying to point that out to our OP.All true. In fact mathematicians are always trying to point out to me that because of the long term outcomes over thousands of shoes, the game is impossible to beat. BUT, we don't walk into a casino to play 10 thousand shoes! We play one shoe at a time. In that glimpse of time long term expectancies are TOTALLY meaningless. Single shoes DEFY long term expectancies. Therefore we bet on what the shoe at hand is doing, NOT on long term expectancies. You would therefore be better off to google the law of SMALL numbers. You'll see that short term runs opposite to long term. Over the course of single shoes we bet on what each shoe is doing. We bet on what IS, not on what is supposed to be long term. Most Bac players bet on long term expectancies. That is precisely why they lose at the incredible average rate of 26% of their buy in money in a 50/50 game.Many players play Bank only because Bank has an edge. They don't realize that Player could win the next 100 shoes completely wiping them out. NOR bets on the biases we see in single shoes. It bets on short term oddities because THAT is what happens in the real world of Baccarat. That is the ONLY way to beat this game.
I'm discussing this very subject with a player named Lee Evans over on ImSpirit. He bets Bank only. He buys in for $10,000 and plays DIMES! That is all he can afford to play with his progressions that are 20 bets long or more. He thinks he's doing great averaging $80 a shoe before commission which takes half his profits because he's betting huge bets on Bank only. He ends up risking $10,000 to win $40. You've got to be kidding me! It is just a question of time before he gets a few Player shoes in a row. Watch my lips: The long term Bank edge is totally meaningless over the course of single shoes.
Bet on what IS. Not on some long term pipe dream.
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You need to google "the law of large numbers".My reason for asking what many of you may consider "DUMB" questions is just so I can clear a few concepts in my headIf I toss a coin (heads one side and tails the other) ...no matter how far the count varies...how far one side falls behind the other...eventually there will be a catchup and the heads/tails count will even up. This will happen no matter how many times the coin toss is interrupted (possibly for months) or even if I pass the coin to others...or even use different coins because a coin toss is the ultimate 50/50 proposition.
OK...My question is: with Baccarat being a 50/50 proposition as well (near as matters) ...we can assume that despite the manipulations by the Casinos...eventually the Player/Banker count would even up (goodness knows how many shoes it would take...but my limited knowledge tells me that it should happen...Do the same rules as a coin toss apply?...Would the Player/Banker count still even up for me eventually... no matter the vagaries of the different shoes...the time differential...different dealers and even different Casinos.
I've most likely got this all wrong because I am far from being a mathematical Wiz...but I would sure appreciate it if someone could explain this to me (in simple terms lol)
Oz
Just because bank wins 51% of the time doesn't mean the numbers of bank vs player decisions will be anywhere near even or close to each other. Let me explain.
Take 100 hands of baccarat. And say bank does win 51% of the hands. So you have 51 hands to bank and 49 to player.
Try 10 million hands of baccarat. 5.1 million hands to bank and 4.9 million hands to player. That's a difference of two hundred thousand hands.
The more shoes you play the closer the banker/player percentages will approach their true odds, while at the same time the wider the gulf in terms of decisions between them.
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Why would you do that?
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First rule, never play RNG baccarat. We only play live dealer online baccarat around here.
Go away troll.
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Steve, you mentioned that NOR members that attended the clinic would be getting an email or PM from you containing additional NOR info that wasn't available yet at the time of the clinic. Just so I don't miss it, do you have an idea when you can get that out to us? And thanks for the MODE 3 explanations, it helped a lot.
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Steve, you are a cheerful guy who loves this game. Thank you for answering all of our questions and explaining the modes so well. That was extremely helpful.
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Update.
I was able to speak to Steve just now and was encouraged by what he wanted to cover in the clinic.
The "why" and how to see it as it unfolds seems paramount. Perfect for me. Admittedly NOR hasn't been my number 1 system to use but I might be more comfortable using it after this clinic.
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Thanks Ellis. I googled the mans name and yes he does wear many hats. His normal is probably very busy.
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Well 2 phone messages for 2 days no reply, lol. He probably isn't checking because there was little response to this thread at the start maybe? Or God forbid something happened to the guy?
I guess now I would just like to find out if this clinic is still on at all, it looks like I potentially could be the only one there if I sign up so maybe Steve would be kind of flexible with what the clinic would be about based on my experience with NOR?
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Well 2 phone messages for 2 days no reply, lol. He probably isn't checking because there was little response to this thread at the start maybe? Or God forbid something happened to the guy?
I guess now I would just like to find out if this clinic is still on at all, it looks like I potentially could be the only one there if I sign up so maybe Steve would be kind of flexible with what the clinic would be about based on my experience with NOR?
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I left a message on his answering service. I guess I'll call again today. I just need a little more information before I can decide if its something I should attend.
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Does ANYBODY have any information on the NOR clinic for LA?
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Steve, could you please explain what you'll be teaching at the "New NOR Baccarat Seminar in Los Angeles" on Sat Oct 13?
Is it a more of an beginner seminar for those that just signed up for NOR or more of an advanced NOR seminar?
Thanks.
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No I think Ellis is saying there is no point to team play in baccarat. Doesn't matter what "aggressive progression" you come up with, you can net bet it all. It can be reduced down to one bet on the table.Appreciate your response...only way I could see advantage might be aggressive progression and some streaky shoes, but seems like you say NB much easier to control ... And safer! -
A "continuous" shuffle machine does exactly what its name says it does. It contentiously shuffles the cards. Its up to the dealer how often the spent cards from previous hands get put back into the machine to shuffle up with the rest of the cards but I've seen them put back cards after every hand (or round) or every few hands.
Bottom line there is no defined shoe of cards anymore with a continuous shuffle machine. And in my opinion completely destroys both blackjack and baccarat as closed shoe games. Please refuse to play those where ever you find them.
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It went well I didnt try to record the session to be honest
The video and audio we great and the file share worked well. We should have some great seminars.
Regards
Keith
So is the webinar going to be recorded and be given to the participants or not?
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How did the test training go? Were you able to record the session Keith?
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That's a good idea. Maybe you could do a quick free 15 minute intro meeting so both you and the rest of us could test the whole thing out. After that test then you would know if your recording worked or not. What do you think about that? Of course the sooner you could do that the better. It might make people's mind up as well for the full meeting.
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Keith,
Does the seminar price of $99.95 dollars include a recorded copy of the meeting with both video and audio?
Only the gotomeeting organizer can record the meeting. But once you do, you can make it available to the attendees for later viewing. Was that the plan?
(BTW, believe or not I have no problem paying for this, as long as I can view a recording of it later. What say you?)
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Thanks for the reply jrhelp007. Maybe you didn't notice but I am a NOR member here at BTC. So I already know what Ellis teaches. Even with what Ellis teaches it still doesn't explain why you appear to be so nervous when betting. I suppose we all are when we first start out, of course winning has alot to do with calming the nerves. Keep up the good work. Always good to hear of people winning at the casinos.
When you start to implement the negative progressions that's taught in the NOR manual, please leave a trip report about that as well. Thank you.
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Congrats on a good outing. But you never have to be scared of casino employees. You got her attention because you were probably the big bettor at the table. Depending on how long you bet at that level they would certainly love to have you come back time and time again. Good to see you winning by flat betting.
Also you claim the casino is cheating? What does this mean, "their wired suffered cards."? I have no idea what that could mean?
Why was the NOR+ thread locked?
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Why was the NOR+ thread locked?