gman72

Yes, I used paypal and everything worked fine.

Ok, I've taken a little leap of faith and signed up for the new Million Dollar Baccarat Forum. I figured Ellis' teachings have earned me much more than the price of admission, so I've signed up even though we have few details on how this will work. I don't even know if those dates are actual teaching dates or if that is just the sign up period. Hope to hear soon. Any one else signed up?

This is why it was played BaS40 for our study.

Not sure I follow your play here MVS. What mode are you playing? Could you explain why no bets at plays 7 & 8? Seems like plays 6 & 7 would be otr bets in M2 then back to S40 on play 8. And in M3 an otr bet on play 7 and then back to S40 on play 8. Just my thoughts on how I understand things. M3 I hit +5 at play 16 and M2 I hit +5 at play 10. I'll try to post it up in the morning. I don't have scanner at home right now.

Nice job! Your play at play #14, was that supposed to be a continued OTR bet on player, or was that just a slip up? Unless you are playing stay on runs till a loss under any mode you are playing, then you would be good. Under S40M3 rules though, don't you just make one OTR bet and then go back to betting opposites? No biggie, but you would have picked up an extra unit.

Here is the shoe played out with the +5 2HI progression. Progression within a progression didn't come in to play on this one. Interestingly enough, I got to +5 before the TT run, but I played it out, showing how I would sit out the TT run after two 2iar's came up and get back end when confirmed the run had ended. Never got below a -4 and the shoe ended at +9.image2014_04_22_14_26_050001.pdf

I would think after two 2iar's maybe the best thing to do is wait until the TT run stops then consider starting back up.

Thanks for posting the shoe. I have a couple of questions/observations though. I see you are flat betting 1 unit which is interesting. Do you always do this or do you ever apply the NOR, NOR+, or +5 2HI progressions? And if not, is flat betting successful for you? Just curious. Also, it appears that after each lost OTR bet (play #'s 9,13,17,24 etc.) you are making your bet a repeat instead of starting S40 over and betting opposite the last play which is what S40 should do I believe. Is this modification something you apply in your play? Again just curious. Heck, maybe I play it wrong. One more, at play #46 shouldn't that be an OTR bet after the loss?

Here's another little interesting tidbit I found from Union Gaming Analytics about current baccarat hold% at the Vegas strip casinos. Las Vegas Trends "For December 2013, Las Vegas Strip gaming win was up 12.9 percent to $664.2 million against a difficult comp of +13.5 percent due to the Pacquiao vs. Marquez IV headline boxing match held on Dec. 8, 2012. For the year 2013, Las Vegas Strip revenues increased 4.8 percent to $6.5 billion and were up 9 percent to $1.7 billion for fourth quarter 2013. Strip baccarat win was up 32.1 percent to $243.9 million while drop was down 6.5 percent on 15.5 percent hold (roughly 230 bps higher than the LTM average), but 350 bps higher than the prior year. The comp was challenging (+22.6 percent), as last year featured the aforementioned major event box." 15.5% hold!!! Damn!!!!!

I think everyone will find this short report on pre-shuffled cards in casinos very interesting. I think the most fascinating item in the article is that the author suggests casino execs are concerned about the possibility of pre-shuffled cards being put in some arranged order and that scares them, what???? It's a little dated, but an informative read none the less. Enjoy. http://www.billzender.com/os/resources/media/using_pre-shuffled_cards_0610.pdf

I was thinking the same thing. When he said following OTBL he bet banker on play 28, I just started scratching my head on that. His play worked out, but with all those 2's and just the one 4, I wouldn't have been thinking about an M1 type adjustment in that shoe. Oh well.

Interesting, that way it looks like the progression within a progression is on the 3rd bet of M3 and not on the OTR bet of M3. I misunderstood how to play that in M3. In M2 the progression within a progression would start on the OTR (3rd bet). Makes a little more sense now. Thanks.

Thanks Glenn, I wasn't sure which. That does make me curios about the 3 bet when playing BaS40M3. The way I read it is you just go back to a 1 on that third bet and then if that loses you play the OTR bet as your progression within a progression? That would be the three losing bets go 1,2,1, then the fourth bet (OTR) would be a 1 the first time in your prog within a prog.

I tried that, but now she wants to take the money and tag along so she can put it back in the Wheel of Fortune machines. I'm starting to call them the "wheel of MIS-fortune" machines. But I digress.... I think the forum is great already, but keeping the ball rolling on the +5 would make it even better.

Thanks Bacc, that sounds like a pretty good plan. Are you playing a NOR progression or are you on the +5 1,2 progression? Couldn't tell from the shoe since you didn't get a losing 2 bet, so I was just curious.

Despite my earlier reservations, I'm ready to go and pay to learn more. Members eager to pay up for additional instruction in this new direction, that should be some good motivation, right?

I always take my table selection seriously when I first get to the casino. I walk around the baccarat pit, which is usually 4-8 tables open depending on the time day, and look for the best bias to exploit or at least the best one with a seat open. This is easier said than done, because it’s always crowded at any time of the day or week at my local casino, even with the multiple tables. But usually once I’ve settled in, I’m in for a while, as long as I don’t hit a stop loss too quickly. But as I get more and more in to this idea of a +5 win target per shoe, I see it possibly more as a hit a run strategy that would be better off played standing behind and moving on quickly after the +5 hit looking for the next table/bias to exploit. At least you don’t have to worry about finding a seat when it’s crowded. This type of play is pretty common at my local casino, because despite their being 9 betting spots, with the chairs, it usually only accommodates 7 players comfortably, so there is usually one or two betting spots open that people standing behind bet on. Up to this point I have not played this way, because I was focused on getting a seat and keeping up with my scorecard. But the more I think about it, it wouldn’t be too difficult to keep a scorecard while standing. Has anyone done this or doing it currently? I’d be curious to know how it’s working out for you. Where I play, a lot of players move around from table to table making bets, holding their chips in their hand as they move around. The floor doesn’t seem to give them a hard time. Is that common at most casinos? I’ve been to a lot of other casinos, I’ve just not played baccarat until this past year, so not sure how everyone handles this type of play.

Nice job. Would you mind elaborating on your thought process of choosing S40 over OTBL? Obviously you chose correct, but I'm just curious to see how others look at shoe starts and make their system decisions. When I see this, my thought process is, ok, I'm going to wait for at least four complete decisions. That gets us all the way through play 6 on this shoe. Then I'm probably waiting to get in after a 2iar, so by play 8, their has been two 2iar's and four single 1's. So twice as many 1's and 2's as normal. So now I'm thinking what do I choose, S40 because high 1's or OTBL because higher than average 2's? I would have waited till after the 2iar at play 11 to jump in and by then probably would have gone with S40 because of the additional 1iar, but not for certain. As we see S40 was the better selection and with the +OR count, M3 looked like the correct choice.

Never mind.

LOL!!! And yet here you are, a paying member of BTC, learning from someone else's intellect. This may be the funniest thing I've read on here.

I really hate to respond, but I just can't let it go. Where does this guy get off telling other members what they have to do on this forum. I think this person needs to see that Canadian psychiatrist.

I think it's been established there won't be any more teaching of +5 until it is figured out how we pay for a new forum on this new system. After all the discussion on this thread, I've come to understand that is necessary. I'm now looking forward to this happening so we can move on and those who want to learn it can. Despite my initial reservations to this, I'm fully on board now.

Who new paying $600 was asking for something for free? Oh well, no big deal. I've got the money and interest to learn the "new approach" so I've got my $150 ready to go. Let's move forward.

I'm not sure what you're taking about. Except for that crazy rant post by CC, I think all the discussion in this thread has been civil. The reply by Keith was eye opening to say the least. We see where we all stand with him. -just depreciating assets.

I would think this is a perfectly good solution. Assuming that as part of getting that access to the forum you would also get the manual when finished and all the discussion going forward in the forum. Again though, this original webinar full cost would be discounted for current NOR members. Then anyone wanting access later to the +5 could pay full price (whatever you decide that is) with a discount for any current NOR members. With that payment they would have to watch either a recording of the original webinar or an updated video overview before they could get access to the forum. (Please consider making the discounted fee for current NOR members nominal) What do you think?