gman72

Is there a way for us to incorporate the idea of the two highest SAP counts to determine the correct system to play? I like the rules posted about what to do in case of ties, it's just the hard rule that whichever one of the counts is highest, that is the system to follow. I would think that will work for the 4+ count using S4+, but when the 2's are highest with 1's next highest, I have had more luck with S1 than using S23 in that situation. Obviously if you got a long TT run and the 2's SAP count increased way up there, S23 would be better. Maybe we could work in a spread difference between 1's and 2's before switching from S1 to S23 when the 2's count is highest and 1's count the next highest? Just a thought.

I don't see how this is possible, could you post it so we can see. I'm not able to get the same results and would be curios how you did it? Thanks.

I have to agree with you on the quick switch I think. In all my practice shoes, I seemed to do better sticking with S1 with high 1's or 2's. It wasn't until 3's got high that I would switch to S23. I worked your other two shoes out and both were also a bust. Shoe #2 I was out -4 at play 21 facing a 2 bet. Shoe #3 I got to play all the way through, but never hit +5. I hit +4 at play 7 but never got over the hump and ended the shoe at the last play 47 with -3.

Shoe #1 is a bust for me. Here's how I played it: image2014_06_04_11_15_220001.pdf I'm out at play 27 with a -4 facing a 2 bet. Played a little different than I have been, based on the rules posted this morning by Ellis. I normally would have stayed S1 (BaS40) after play 3, but the rules stated high 2's or 3's is S23 (BaOTB4L). Wouldn't have made a difference, still a losing shoe. What do you think?

Great idea! I’m loving this name change for its simplicity. It will take a little time to get used to, but will make writing out much easier than what we were doing.

Since this is a purely mechanical system, it would be great to have an excel spreadsheet simulator/analyzer to run a lot of shoes for testing. I wish my excel skills were better, but I only know the basics and not all the macros/more complex formulas I think it would take. I saw back around the end of last year that PeterUK had created a 4D simulator/analyzer in excel. I wonder if anyone has done something similar for MDB or knows if anyone else has. Anyone with the excel skills willing to give it a try? I'd be willing to help out if there is something I can do.

I see what you are saying, you are following the rules from Ellis' post #77 in this thread. It does show when the two highest SAP counts are 2's and 4+'s that equals a weak BaOTB4L shoe. Purely mechanical, again, you lose this shoe if you switch to BaOTB4L at play 25. What I was seeing with the SAP count is that 4+'s were in the lead through the first column so still BaS40M1, then the 2's started trending up, but then so did the 1's. Since the 4+ was still high and then 2's and 1's trending up I just decided to stick with BaS40M1. Maybe I was just lucky. That could backfire on another shoe. It's just my thought process. High 1's and 2's count is easy, as well as 2's and 3's. I have the most trouble with shoe's that are high 2's and 4+s or 3's and 4+s.

Here's this one played out: image2014_06_02_12_55_280001.pdf Changed to S40M1 at play 10 and stayed with it through the rest of the shoe. Never hit -5, but got close, and it clawed back to a +5 at play 54 in the third column. I stayed S40M1 because the 4+'s SAP count stayed highest, even when the 2's tied the 4+'s at play 28. The 1's seemed to be trending up, so I stayed with S40M1. I went back OTR at play 16, and since it won, I stayed OTR till a loss. This could have been played with only one more OTR bet to the 4iar at play 16 and then back to S40M1, since the last run was only a 4iar at plays 5-8, but right now I'm playing till a loss whenever I go back OTR after a secondary progression bet ATR losses. Ellis may shed some light if this is correct or not, but it's what I'm doing right now in my play. I got off the run at play 41 since the last run before that was a 4iar at plays 30-33. What do you think Glenn? Did you play the same?

As best as I can tell the rules just don't help you with this sequence, it's -5 all the way. Maybe if you were able to react to the trending up 1's you could have switched back to BaS40 for the last few plays, but that wouldn't be following the mechanical rules. I guess we'll just have to accept there are starting sequences this method just can't beat.

Keep in mind, the shoes played on here are for practice, demonstration purposes. That is why the shoe is played completely out. If playing those shoes live in the casino, you would follow the +5 win/loss stops. So most of those shoes would not be played all the way out. Here we do it just to show and practice the correct way to play the particular systems. Go back and review and see how many would be winners and or losers and if you would have gotten the +5 or captured the +4. I believe you will see that most would have accomplished this, but obviously not all.

WOW!! IMHO, this post right here is the icing on the cake for everything we have learned about MDB +5 so far. This one is getting hi-lighted and tagged in my binder (which has grown pretty large in the last month). Thanks Ellis.

I couldn't agree with you more. But remember, when we post up these practice shoes, even though they may hit or exceed the -5 stop loss, the continued play in the shoe is just for "practice, demonstration" purposes. Same goes for those +20 shoes, in live play I most likely would have been out with just +5 or +6 unless it took off strong early. To see how things would be going in a more real world scenario, I will take all my practice shoes and see how I would have done following what I would have done live, to see how I would have really done in all those shoes. No point in practice and review if you are not honest with yourself about how it is really going to work out.

Yep you are correct. I screwed that play up at 42. I occasionally make a mistake when moving to a new column. I made that BaOTB4L bet at play 42 as a repeat because I thought the last two plays were an opposite, but they weren't. It does make a difference and the shoe doesn't work out as well. I still get the SAP count I show, looks like we are off on the 3s and 4's.

Lou, I try to stay with the -5 stop loss. You see that I hit it in that #4 shoe. In live play, I probably would have gotten out, especially when facing a two bet. I just played the shoe out for practice. One thing I'm struggling with in my practice of MDB +5 is that I seem to hit -4 and -5 often, but when I continue to play, I almost always seem to finally get to +5. And when I do hit -4 or -5 it rarely goes any lower. I know I've only worked a small number of shoes in the grand scheme of things, but I've worked a lot and that is what I keep running up against. I'm afraid this is going to tempt me to press that -5 stop loss a little bit.

Here is how I played way2fast’s shoe #4.image2014_05_27_16_30_520001.pdf Started at play 2 with BaS40. I only bet 1 unit until a win, which is why the 1 bet at play 3. Played BaS40 through play 12. After play 12, the SAP count was 3,2,8,0. Now, based on Ellis’ rules in post #77, since 1’s and 3’s are high, it points to a weak BaS40M1 shoe. Personally when I see two 3iar’s that early I’m more inclined to play OTB4L, so that is what I switched to at play 13. I played the rest of the shoe out that way and the SAP count continued to show high 2’s and 3’s the rest of the shoe. I hit the +5 in the third column at play 50, and if I’m that deep in the shoe I would quit there. I played it out for demonstration and the shoe ends -3. The 1’s came on strong the last 10 or 11 plays and I probably should have switched back to BaS40 at around play 58. But I’d have been out of the shoe by then with a +5.

Here is how I played way2fast’s shoe #3. image2014_05_27_15_58_110001.pdf Man, this one was tricky and kept you hanging around till the bitter end. It had several system changes following SAP. Here’s what I did. I started BsS40 at play 2. Switched to BaS40M1 at play 9. After play 8 the SAP count was 3,0,0,4, which was telling me BaS40M1. Played that all the way through play 23 where the SAP count was now 6,6,0,8. It’s still a toss up with the tie between the 1’s and 2’s, but the 2’s were trending up quickly going 2-4-6 in just 5 plays, so I gave more weight to the 2’s trend and decided to switch to BaOTB4L. Played that through play 30, where the SAP count was now 9,10,0,8. This quickly developing 1’s trend along with high 2’s told me to switch to BaS40 the next play. So at play 31 that is what I did and played it all the way through play 51. I didn’t go back OTR after the ATR loss at play 47 because the last run was only a 4iar so I just started back the BaS40 primary progression at play 48. At play 40 the SAP count had higher 2’s and 4’s but the 4’s had just jumped once in over 25 plays so I didn’t see a reason to change just yet. At play 51, the SAP count was now 13,18,0,16. The 2’s and 4’s were trending up at this point so I decided to switch back to BaOTB4L. SAP count continued to trend higher 2’s and 4’s so I stayed with BaOTB4L through the rest of the shoe. Probably should have gotten off the run at play 58, since the last run was only a 5iar, but that only cost me one unit. Never got below -2 and finally hit +5 in the fourth column. The shoe finished at +7 but I’d have been out as soon as I hit that +5 at play 65 in the fourth column and been a pretty happy camper. Downside is the shoe had 21 units won on Banker, so the commission would have eaten up a whole unit of profit. But still a winner.

This is a tough question I am finding. Here is shoe #2 from way2fast's post #79. image2014_05_27_13_18_540001.pdf You can see the shoe trending from BaS40 to BaS40M1 to BaOTB4L and that's all in the first column and then it changes quickly back to BaS40M1. I never could get anything going too good. Got to high of +4 and kept going but it turned around on me as I worked it. I didn't make the change to BaOTB4L in the first column, I just don't like changing that many times so quickly, and it worked in my favor starting the second column, but it just couldn't carry through to a +5.

Ok, here is how I played out shoe #1. image2014_05_27_10_56_040001.pdf You could possibly have switched to BaOTB4L after play 13, but I don't like to switch immediately and it works out, because you would have been triggered to switch right back to BaS40 after play 23. You would still have finished ok if you had made the two switches, but you do better without switching in this particular shoe.

Post up the shoes and let's have a look. Yes it works. If you post up a shoe or two we can play it out and see if it was just a tough shoe or if it was just player error. It will help us all learn.

If you only bet a 1 until a win, you end up in the same spot without facing a bet that would take you below your -5 stop loss.

Back in the "BaOTB4L +5 Practice" thread, in post #32, Ellis talks about waiting to start a shoe till we see what events a shoe is high in and low in. We can do this with SAP. He refers to looking at seven plays as an example to see the direction the shoe is headed. Here is that last shoe I posted played out, starting after 7 events at play 16 with BaS40M1. I switch systems to BaOTB4L at play 39. Although I never would have gotten that far, because I'd have been out of the shoe with my +5 way before then. image2014_05_21_14_44_480001.pdf

I don't know if it's the "proper" way, but it's the way I did it. Lol! You know how some are on here, if it didn't come from Ellis it's just a pointless post. My initial thoughts on this particular shoe are, as you begin to see the SAP count get established by the middle of the first column, to start BaS40M1 with the rising 1's line and increase in the +4 line, but as the shoe progresses towards the end of the second column I see a trend moving toward the 2's and 3's line so I'm looking for a system change to BaOTB4L that I think would carry you well through the third column. What do you think?

Here's a shoe for practice: image2014_05_21_11_13_260001.pdf See how you would play it out different ways based on the SAP counts and the trend directions.

I'll try it, but just to clarify, the 2-3-4 progression you mention above is the secondary progression correct? So the progression would look like 1230234?

Ok, I played this one out all four ways. Here is the first three. image2014_05_20_08_56_580001.pdf I'm not completely comfortable with how I played this one out in S40M1, I stayed on all runs until a loss and when my ATR lost I went back OTR and stayed till it lost. I still think that if you get on the run so early with this method, you can stay OTR till a loss. Just my preference right now, make your own call on how to play them. Here is the shoe played out S40M3. image2014_05_20_08_57_290001.pdf Losing that progression really causes a problem in my mind following the +5 system. If I set a 5 unit stop loss, I can't even lose the primary progression before I'm stopped out. I need to play it out following Glenn's conservative survival rules and see what happens. As you can see, BaOTB4L method is the only one that didn't get crushed early and was able to move along nicely for a good win. Please point out any differences or mistakes and we can discuss.