gman72

I will post up in the morning when I'm at my scanner. I've worked them out and I want to double check them, but on first run through, BaOTB4L handles the shoe nicely, but the other three methods get crushed.

I'll work this one out here in a little bit and post up. I agree that the idea of an easier solution to deciding between BaS40 and BaOTB4L would be great, but I'm just not sure about the additional 3 bet yet and I really like getting on runs sooner with the other methods. A 3 bet doesn't really scare me, since I'm used to NOR+ playing U1D2, it's just I've come to really like the more conservative nature of the +5 progressions and think it gives me more confidence to push up my units to a higher level.

I certainly can appreciate how SAP can help considerably, but if we open that can of worms here I'm afraid we may run the risk of another 4D disaster. From all I've read SAP is proven to work, but it can be complicated to teach and learn. The beauty of the 5+ MDB method was to simplify things. I'm not opposed if that's the way we go, I am just concerned it could bog things down. Maybe there is a simpler SAP method to incorporate?

Here is a shoe played out BaS40, BaS40M3, and then again BaS40M3 following Glenn's three rules in post #4. image2014_05_19_14_24_490001.pdf This is only one shoe, but it didn't quite work as well as I expected. Glenn's conservative rules certainly keep the losses down, but can hold you back also in advancing forward some. Thoughts? DISCLAIMER: (I feel this is necessary now) This is not an approved shoe. Review at your own risk of getting incorrect information. It was not posted by, reviewed by or approved by Ellis so review at your own risk of being misinformed.

Wow. I guess I see what others think about my posting shoes for practice. For the record, I never said I was teaching anyone how to play correctly. I simply was following the rules as posted by the teacher and playing them out. Others could follow along and try as well. Mistakes, if any, could be pointed and discussed so all could learn. That's the point of a forum I thought. It is for discussion and my practice shoes and play by plays are done to encourage discussion. Sounds like you just want a manual. Good luck with that.

Oops sorry, this post was in error.

Ok, this is a play by play of how a played the last shoe I posted with BaOTB4L +5. BaOTB4L +5 120123 progression PP=primary progression SS=secondary progression OTR=on the run ATR=against the run ST=straight run ZZ=zig zag run Play by Play: Play#: 3-9 started at play three just out of habit, starting with PP and went through play 9 with PP. 10 Lost the PP at play 9 so now a 0 SP bet OTR (ST) here. 11-13 0 SP bet wins at play 11 so stay OTR till a loss. 14-25 Back to PP betting here after the OTR loss at play 13. 26-28 Lost the PP at play 25 so now a 0 SP bet OTR (ZZ) at play 26 and continue the ZZ run. 29-38 Back to PP betting here after the OTR loss at play 28. 39 Lost the PP at play 38 so now a 1 SP bet ATR (ST) here since the 0 SP bet at play 10 won. 40-41 The ATR bet at play 39 loses so go back OTR (ST) and bet till hit 7iar, which was the last length of the ST run back at plays 6-12. 42-44 Back to PP betting. Got off the run at play 42 after 7iar at play 41 and was lucky the run only went to 7iar. 45 Lost the PP at play 44 so now a 1 SP bet ATR (ZZ) here after the 0 SP bet (ZZ) won at play 26. 46-56 ATR bet at play 45 won, so back to PP betting. 57 Lose the PP at play 56 so now continue the SP betting with a 2 SP bet ATR (ST) since the 1 SP ATR (ST) lost at play 39. 58-59 Won the ATR (ST) bet at play 57, so back to PP betting. 60 Lost the PP bet at play 59 so a 0 SP bet here OTR (ZZ). Did not continue OTR here, may have been a mistake not sure. The last ZZ run was a 4iar at plays 41-44. Started the SP ZZ over after the win at play 45. 61-71 Back to PP betting and finished the shoe out with no more SP bets.

Ok, I was hoping someone would work out and post, but no takers so far, so here's how I worked the shoe out with the three +5 methods. image2014_05_16_14_53_310001.pdf Let me know if you see any mistakes. Also, what method would you have started with if you had walked up and saw the first 20 plays? As you can see from my sheet, BaS40 would have been best by the end of the shoe, but it started out slow, whereas BaOTB4L would have got you +5 before the end of the first column. Still struggling with deciding what my default method will be.

Here's another shoe for practice. I set this one up so we can try out all three methods on the same page to compare. image2014_05_16_13_09_360001.pdf

Yes, Wendel that is correct, but since it was the first ZZ OTR win and it was at 5iar at that point, I continued the ZZ OTR with a B1 bet at play 48. All the prior ZZ runs had lost after a 4iar (plays 30 & 38). This is why I was confused on the correct course of action at this point, since the run had already gone longer than the prior runs when the secondary progression bet won at play 47, I just decided to stay OTR. Play 65 I had the same thinking with the ST run that went to a 5iar, which was longer than the two prior 4iar ST runs, so I stayed OTR.

I thought I'd start a thread for us to practice some shoes with BaOTB4L +5. Here is my attempt at it. It has straight (ST) and zig zag (ZZ) runs in it to practice. image2014_05_15_10_46_530001.pdf I started the shoe at play #3, that's just how I like to do it sometimes. I was a little stumped at play #47 whether or not to continue the ZZ run. I did, but not sure if the correct play. Same situation at play #65 with continuing a ST run. Again, I did, but not sure if correct. Take a look, play it out, and let's compare.

I hope we're not giving away too much info in this "free" seminar. It sounds like we might be in the description and that may not sit well with the paid members. Guys like this Hamster seem to be working hard in the open forum here to get as much for free as possible. Let's not help them out too much.

Correct on play #12, that was an error, should have been a 1 bet, not a 2 bet. Correct explanation of the bet at play 35. As far as play #44 goes, looking at it now I think the 1 bet going back OTR after the ATR loss at play #43 was a mistake. The last run that ended as a 4iar at play #34 should have told me to just start my primary progression bet over at play #44 instead of going back OTR. I would have picked up one unit in that spot. I think I thought it was a 3iar at that point at play #44 forgetting to pay attention to the last column and see that it was a continuation of a banker run.

No worries. If you do work the shoe out and post that would be great for everyone. This will also give everyone another example, to compare their work to your solution, so we can all see how we're doing. Here's how I worked it. image2014_05_13_10_32_540001.pdf

Interestingly enough, playing this shoe with BaS40, starting at play #2, you end the shoe with a score of +7. Yes, you do hit a low of -3 with the next bet a 2, but it hits and you cruise to +5 quite nicely from there. Just an FYI for any NOR members not on the MDB forum.

Thought I'd throw out a practice shoe. image2014_05_12_15_05_450001.pdf

Good catch. Yes, I screwed that up right from the start just as you point out. Unfortunately, I replayed it and I do get to +3 in the first column but the column still ends at +1 just like the other and the rest of the shoe plays out the same.

I played your shoe in BaS40M1 and BaS40. FYI: I had to adjust the shoe since your second column only had 19 plays. I took the 1 banker first play in the third column and made it play 20 and started the third column with P2. Here it is BaS40M1: image2014_05_09_13_07_550001.pdf Here it is BaS40: image2014_05_09_13_08_280001.pdf I'm trying to follow the rules, so I hope I got it right. Check it out and please point out any errors. I'm still working on BaOTB4L. Have to wrap my head around understanding OTR and ATR with the secondary progression when we take ZZ runs into account along with straight runs. I'm practicing. I'd love to see a shoe played out by Ellis with this method.

No problem. Here is a blank copy. bac shoe scoresheet2.xlsx

I suggest double checking the original post of the shoe and transcribing it correctly would really help for comparing play, but that's just me. It's still a good example of how to play a shoe using the two systems, it's just not the shoe that was posted and worked by the original poster, SteveO at post #89, or me at post #90 with play by play at post #91, or by newbacplayer at post #92. The transcribing error at play 33 throws the rest of the shoe out of whack for comparison to the shoe played by others. Just saying.

I honestly don't know if these are preshuffled or not, but it is shoe #28 from Norm's 60 Vegas shoes. And aren't we constantly told that Vegas is all preshuffled?

Here is what I did for reference. Please feel free to critique the play and point out mistakes. Thanks. (PP=primary progression, SP=secondary progression, OTR=on the run, ATR=against the run) Play by play of Shoe #1: S40M1 +5 version 4. 0 bet under the first 2iar. 5. Since the 0 bet won, stayed OTR. 6. Lost play 5 so back to PP betting opposites. 7. Lost PP at play 6 so SP bet is ATR because the 0 bet won at play 4. 8-10. Back to PP. 11. Lost PP at play 10 so a new SP starts with a 0 bet under the 2iar. 12. 0 bet loses so back to PP bet. 13. PP bet loses at play 12 so SP bet OTR since the 0 bet at 11 lost. 14-15. OTR bet since the SP OTR bet won at play 13. 16-17. Back to PP since OTR bet lost at play 15. 18. 0 SP bet under the 2iar since PP lost at play 17. 19. Back to PP bet since 0 SP bet lost at play 18. 20. SP OTR since the PP bet at play 19 lost and the 0 bet at play 18 lost. 21-23. Back to PP since SP bet lost at play 20. 24. SP 2 bet OTR since the PP bet at play 23 lost and the 0 bet at play 18 lost and the SP 1 bet lost at 20. 25. OTR bet since the SP 2 bet won at play 24. 26. Back to PP. Didn’t continue the OTR since the last run was a 4iar at plays 11-14. 27. PP bet. 28. 0 SP bet under the 2iar since PP lost at play 27. 29-33. Back to PP bets after the 0 bet loss at play 28. (Hit +5 score at play 31!) 34. SP 1 bet OTR after the PP lost at play 33 and the 0 bet loss at play 28. 35-36. Back to PP after SP loss at play 33. 37. SP 2 bet OTR after the PP lost at play 36 and the 0 SP bet loss at play 28 and 1 SP bet loss at play 34. 38. Back to PP after SP loss at play 37. 39. SP 3 bet OTR after the PP lost at play 38 and the 0 SP bet loss at play 28 and 1 SP bet loss at play 34 and 2 SP bet loss at play 37. 40-41. Back to PP after the SP loss at play 39. 42. Restart the SP over with a 0 bet after the PP loss at play 41. 43. OTR bet since the SP 0 bet won at play 42. 44. Back to PP bet. 45. SP 1 bet since the PP bet lost at play 44 and it was bet ATR because the SP 0 bet won at play 42. 46. Went back OTR after the ATR loss at play 45 for one more play to see if run would go to a 4iar. 47. Back to PP bet after OTR loss at play 46. 48. SP 2 bet ATR since the PP loss at play 47 and the 0 SP bet win at play 42 and 1 SP bet loss at play 45. 49-51. Back to PP bet after SP 2 bet loss at play 48. 52. SP 3 bet ATR since the PP loss at play 51 and the 0 SP bet win at play 42, the 1 SP bet loss at play 45 and the 2 SP bet loss at play 48. 53-56. Back to PP bet after SP 3 bet win at play 52. 57. 0 SP bet under the 2iar after PP loss at play 56. 58. PP bet after 0 SP bet loss at play 57. 59. SP 1 bet after the PP bet loss at play 58, the SP bet is OTR since the 0 SP loss at play 57. 60-61. Back to PP bet. 62. SP 2 bet after the PP bet loss at play 61, the SP 2 bet is OTR since the 0 SP loss at play 57 and the 1 SP bet loss at play 59. 63. OTR bet for one play after the 2 SP bet win at play 62, seeing if run will go to 4iar. 64-65. Back to PP bet. 66. 0 SP bet since PP bet at play 65 lost. 67. Back to PP bet since 0 SP bet lost at play 66. 68. 1 SP bet OTR since 0 SP bet lost at play 66.

This blank copy may help get others to play and post. image2014_05_06_14_35_560001.pdf Here is my copy played out. As you'll see I ended up much different than your play. image2014_05_06_15_06_470001.pdf Reached +5 at play 31. The wheels fell off starting at the bottom of the second column. I lost my secondary progression so started it over at play 42.

Here's a shoe to practice on. Try this one with S40M1 and see how you do. There are a few spots where I can't decide what's the right way to bet. image2014_05_06_14_21_440001.pdf

After further review I believe I missed a couple of key points. Mainly the last two sentences.