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Baccplay sample shoe - scored F2 vs Sys40 by Ellis


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First, F2: Note that I played to my new rule from a month ago that says:

If you switch sides and lose the first bet, switch right back.

Instead of: You must make a min. of 3 bets on a new side.

This new rule worked great in this shoe just as it has in others. Anyway:

B5313112112

B113112344

B741131111

B312232

Play# and bet:

01, no bet

02, B3

03, B3

04, B3

05, B3

06, B3

07, B4

08, P5

09, P3

10, P4

11, P3

12, P3

13, P3

14, P4

15, P3

16, P4

17, P5

18, P3

19, P4

20, P3

21, P3

22, P4

23, P3

24, P4

25, B5

26, B3

27, B4

28, B3

29, B4

30, P5

31, B3

32, B3

33, B3

34, B4

35, P5

36, P3

37, P3

38, P4

39, B5

40, B3

41, B3

42, B3

43, B3

44, B3

45, B3

46, B3

47, B3

48, B3

49, B4

50, P5

51, P3

52, P3

53, 54

54, P3

55, P4

56, B5

57, B3

58, B4

59, B3

60, B4

61, B3

62, B3

63, B3

64, B3

65, B4

66, B3 QUIT

No strange plays whatsoever - Straight F2 345 continuous, 5 Hi

Note, this shoe also demonstrates the value of decade cash Mgt.

I figure you guys can add up the score (I got +42)

I quit at Play 66 because the next bet could have taken me out of the 40-50 decade.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baccplay posted an interesting casino shoe on 10-26-10 on the System 40 Advance thread (currently closed thread). Ellis scored it in both F2 and Sys40 using a 345 continuous progression 5 Hi and asked for someone to write up the shoes and post them. Being new, I wanted to give it a shot. :eek:

First, here is the shoe with F2 (Ellis' scoring copied above). Ellis did acknowledge later in the thread, his typo on Hand 17 which should be B5, not P5.

F2-345prog-5hi.jpg

Ok, here are my questions on this 345 continuous betting prog:

Since you lost Hand 17 at 5 units, wouldn't Hand 18 stay at 5 units, instead of going down to 3? And then since you lost Hand 18 at 5 units, wouldn't you keep your bet at 5 units for Hand 19?

This happened again at Hand 30 where you lost your 5 bet, so I thought Hand 31 would stay at 5 units, not drop down to 3.

Or is 345 continuous suppose to be more conservative and have you go back down to your base bet if you lose a 5 bet?

My main concern as a new player is even though this shoe ends up great and I would have wanted to stop at Hand 61 so I didn't go under my 30 decade, how do I handle getting through the low part of this shoe, right in the middle, down -3 at Hand 34 and -2 at Hand 38. ?

If I was playing this shoe live and this is how it played out for me, I would have thought I screwed up my system or picked the wrong system and most likely bailed on the shoe by Hand 34, afraid to lose a lot of units. Hindsight is great of course but how do I know to stick with it to end up with 20+, 30+ or 40+?

Maybe I would have sat out after Hand 34 until I saw the run starting after Hand 39. Jumping back in then would have worked out and pulled me out of the -3 hole.

Ellis, I've seen other F2 sample shoes that played 345 but with M4. When do you choose M3 vs M4? Is M3 less risky (conservative)?

Ok, now I am writing up Ellis' scoring for the same shoe from Baccplay with Sys40 with 2's culprit. I will post that as soon as I finish.

Tess

P.S. I will be traveling to Pennsylvania on Friday with my husband to join you at the Hollywood Casino on Sat & Sun. I am really looking forward to meeting both Ellis and Keith along with all the other members/students in attendance. Please feel free to PM me if you are going so I can find you and introduce myself.

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Here's what Ellis posted previously on scoring this same shoe from Baccplay with Sys40, 345 progression, 5 Hi - followed by my write up of the scoring card:

Originally Posted by E. Clifton Davis View Post

OK, the same shoe played Straight System 40, 2s culprit, 345 continuous, 5 Hi

B5313112112

B113112344

B741131111

B312232

Play#, Bet

01, No Bet

02, P3

03, B4

04, B3

05, B3

06, B3

07, B4

08, P5

09, P3

10, P4

11, B3

12, P4

13, P3

14, P4

15, B3

16, P3

17, B4

18, B5

19, P3

20, B3

21, P4

22, P5

23, B3

24, P3

25, B4

26, B3

27, B4

28, P3

29, B3

30, B4

31, P3

32, B4

33, B3

34, B4

35, P5

36, P3

37, P3

38, P4

39, B5

40, B3

41, B3

42, B3

43, B3

44, B3

45, B3

46, B3

47, B3

48, B3

49, B4

50, P5

51, P3

52, P3

53, P4

54, B3

55, P3

56, B4

57, B3

58, B4

59, P3

60, B3

61, P3

62, B4

63, B3 Quit at play 63 at +60 because next bet could take me out of the 60-70 decade.

Somebody check both shoes for accuracy because my eyes are shot after all that. Thanks!

Could easily be some typos.

Sys40_345prog_5hi.jpg

Note: Ellis originally wrote Hand 30 as B4 but agreed in a later post that it was a typo and should be P4 since 2's were culprit.

Ok, here's my questions.......

Hand 11, you bet down under 1 iar instead of opposites. Why? If 2's were culprit or LC, why go OTR after 1 iar? Or were you considering 1's and 2's LC at that point since they were even at 0?

If you did not have any shoe history or table history when you started this shoe LIVE, at what point would you consider 2's LC and go OTR after every 2?

Without knowing this was a streaky shoe or table, would you start with 3's as LC and go OTR on Hand 4?

Again, as a new player, it would be emotionally rough on me to go from +30 at Hand 28 down to +17 at Hand 34 (almost 50% loss). Of course, riding that low out brings you to probably one of the best wins on one shoe but there is no way of knowing if that is coming or not, or if you will end up completely back to zero.

This is what has been the biggest challenge for me playing BJ and now learning Bac - to stop before losing all of your winnings because you think it will go back up right around the corner.

Thank you for any advice or suggestions you would like to share with me on this topic. :smile:

Tess

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Hi Tess! First, excellent job of posting shoes! And yes, I look forward to meeting you and yours on Fri evening. I'm sure you know by now to do ALL your lettering in ink when you are going to post a shoe. I learned that the hard way too.

I saw a couple of mistakes right off before MY eyes gave out too. Play 12 should be a 3 bet and play 16 should be on Player. But you got it mostly right. Those may have been my fault because it is almost impossible to transcribe the way I did W/O typos. That is why we don't normally transcribe that way. I only did it that way because both my printers are down. Let's get to your questions.

Here's what Ellis posted previously on scoring this same shoe from Baccplay with Sys40, 345 progression, 5 Hi - followed by my write up of the scoring card:

Sys40_345prog_5hi.jpg

Note: Ellis originally wrote Hand 30 as B4 but agreed in a later post that it was a typo and should be P4 since 2's were culprit.

Ok, here's my questions.......

Hand 11, you bet down under 1 iar instead of opposites. Why? If 2's were culprit or LC, why go OTR after 1 iar? Or were you considering 1's and 2's LC at that point since they were even at 0?

No ,no, it was just a transcription error, the same one I caught above.

If you did not have any shoe history or table history when you started this shoe LIVE, at what point would you consider 2's LC and go OTR after every 2?

Ha, first, since this shoe started out strong - I would have gone straight to F2 right off the bat. The only reason I also played it S40 is for the newest members who only know S40 at this point. Since the shoe favored - throughout even hitting -10 a couple times I would definitely have stuck with F2.

Without knowing this was a streaky shoe or table, would you start with 3's as LC and go OTR on Hand 4?

No, Playing S40 I always start at hand 3 with 4s culprit. (just in case the shoe starts with a 5) Since with 4s culprit I only stay OTR one bet, I would have won hands 5, and 6 and immediately switch to F2 winning hands 7 and 8. The 5 in a row start is a dead giveaway to switch to F2 and the following 3 in a row confirms that decision. Again, I just want ed to show the guys that S40 could also beat this shoe if that was all you knew.

Again, as a new player, it would be emotionally rough on me to go from +30 at Hand 28 down to +17 at Hand 34 (almost 50% loss). Of course, riding that low out brings you to probably one of the best wins on one shoe but there is no way of knowing if that is coming or not, or if you will end up completely back to zero.

Right but you have to adjust your thinking to play a 345. It is a 12 unit prog and you need to be prepared to lose it a time or two. The 345 requires its own cash mgt. we can't use the same cash mgt we use with a 123. It must be more aggressive. A 345 is not for everyone. You must have confidence in your system selection as well as your first bet. You MUST be mostly winning your first bet or reduce your prog and you must be prepared for a score that jumps all over the place. Such is its nature. But remember, we would not have been playing S40. S40 with 2s culprit is ONLY for rookies that ONLY know S40. S4o with 2s culprit is actually TB4L and it loses to the TTs so an experienced player would never play it. Streak is F2. That will have enough problems W/O playing the wrong system to boot.

This is what has been the biggest challenge for me playing BJ and now learning Bac - to stop before losing all of your winnings because you think it will go back up right around the corner.

The new S40A manual will contain a chapter on Recommended Cash Mgt. YOUR cash mgt must not only be mathematically correct for the prog you are playing. It must also satisfy your comfort level. Your cash Mgt must be designed to save your ass because your head is not always dependable. But we are playing the best systems in the world and we must let them do their thing. With the 345 yes we are aggressive but we are also protected by several outs. If we are winning the 3 we are winning the shoe. If we aren't, the first thing we'll do is drop back to a lesser prog as determined by the win rate of our first bet.. Then, are we ,in fact, playing the right system? Then cash mgt takes over as our final line of defense. We are Players, not gamblers.

Thank you for any advice or suggestions you would like to share with me on this topic. :smile: Tess
Edited by ECD
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On the F2 shoe I see no errors. Good Job!

By 345 continuous I mean 345 345 345. You return to 3 on ALL winning bets AND upon a prog loss. The only question is after a prog loss do you go right back in with your 345 or wait for a winning hand? We judge by how well we are doing. At Hollywood we always went right back in and this was successful for 11 shoes.

By 345 "limited" I mean our highest bet is 5 and a losing 5 goes back to 3.

For cash mgt we need to adjust for the higher prog. Instead of saying "Once we hit +16 we don't go below 0. For 345 I think 24 is more appropriate.

Also we need to adjust our overall stop loss from -8 to about -13 to give ourselves adequate maneuverability.

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Ellis......In this example you had 11 B's in a row. In this case, as you said you would have switched to F2 right away and got off 40. However, if you were on a S40 mode in another shoe and you had 4's as culprit, how would you have handled an 11 in a row since you only go once OTR if 4's are culprit. In this shoe you kept the otr going but you're saying only go once and then go to opposites, at some point you've got to go otr again. Would that be after the second string of 4's. That could be costly. It seems the risk is less of you go otr and ride it out. If it only goes once and then to opposites you risk only one bet. Here with the progresions you will cylce through more than once before it's over.........Jersey

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