what is OTB4L

[TangNangDoaHoa]

what is OTB4L, what is an example of it?? and when to use it??

[ECD]

Now this is a good thread to leave up because we used to have a complete OTB4L manual but it got archived. I could bring it back but I'd rather teach it over again so that I can teach it from the standpoint of how it best fits into the NOR Approach so this is a good place to start.

OTB4L stands for Opposite Time Before Last. Your bet placement goes opposite of whichever side won the hand before last.

We select OTB4L 4-5 for the middle third of all shoes. These are those frequent shoes that favor neither chop nor streak. The OR count can't seem to make up its mind and it usually frequently crosses 0. We call these runless shoes because they are usually short in both straight and ZZ runs while TT runs (terrible twos) ( BB PP BB PP) are often very frequent. OTB4L wins EVERY bet in a TT run.

When we correctly select OTB4L 4-5 we frequently find ourselves the only winners at the table because the casino does best with such shoes. This is because all other systems player's play are either chop or streak systems. Therefore casinos strive to produce OTB4L shoes through shuffle technique and today we see such shoes more and more.

When you place your bets this way you will find that you beat all single 1's (sporadic 1's), all single and multiple 2's and all single and multiple 3s.

The only thing left to lose to is long straight or ZZ runs. Therefore we must bet OTR (on the run) at some point to protect ourselves from runs. That is where the 4-5 of OTB4L 4-5 comes into play. Since we are already on straight runs for the first 2 circles we decide whether to go OTR after the run goes 4 or 5 depending on LC between 4s and 5+s just as we used LC in the other systems. See, once you learn the LC principle there are many uses of it.

But the trick of it is that we must look at ZZ runs separately from straight runs. See, with the other two systems, SS and OP, we are not concerned with ZZ runs because those systems always beat ZZ runs automatically.

OTB4L beats the half of 1's that are single 1's and it also beat's double 1's when we make our PL (prog length) 3 but that's all she wrote. For longer ZZ runs we must decide when best to go on them just as we did straight runs.

To cope with ZZ runs when playing OTB4L it is good to know how to correctly count the length of ZZ runs because it is NOT what it seems.

A 2112 contains a ZZ run of 4, not 3. See, a ZZ run starts with a repeat just as a straight run starts with an opposite.

ALL Baccarat books and all Baccarat sites get this WRONG. They say that straight runs are more plentiful than ZZ runs. No they aren't. They both occur at the same length at the SAME frequency. And of course they would since opposites and repeats occur at the same exact frequency over time.

Once you thoroughly understand this principle you can determine when best to go on a ZZ run the exact same way you determined when best to go on a straight run.

The moral of this is that guys who do not have a Mathematical background should not be writing Baccarat books or running Baccarat sites or designing Baccarat systems. They aren't qualified.

These BTW are the SAME guys that call me a scammer. They do so because they are mathematically stupid. They call Baccarat Math mumbo jumbo because it is munbo jumbo TO THEM. Baccarat is a Mathematical game. It can be beat by one thing and one thing only, correct Mathematics. YOU don't need to know Mathematics but I DO so I can teach you correctly. There were those who called Einstein a scammer too with his black holes and his theory of relativity and other mumbo jumbo. Someday perhaps the nerds will rule the world. But not today.

Oh, sorry. I got a little carried away there and forgot your question.

The last point I need to make about OTB4L 4-5 is that once we successfully win an OTR bet it is usually best to go right back off the run and right back to OTB4L. My reason is that unlike OP, with OTB4L we are already so far down the run when we won our OTR bet that and opposite bet at that point will win more often than not. The only time we would stay on the run is when we are seeing lots of long straight runs. But in that case, we most likely should be playing SS anyway. (F2,3)

Edited March 22, 2011 by ECD

[res]

Thanks for that update Ellis. OTB4L is probably the component I am weakest on. I started working on it since your recent posts about it. Now I am wondering how to score runs of 5+. 5+=8, like 4s. Or, 5+=16? Or, possibly another number.

Thanks,

Ron

[ECD]

High Ron! First, you do NOT want to be weak in OTB4L for 4 reasons:

1.) That middle third of the shoes we assign OTB4L to is growing.

2.) OTB4L is the most flexible system we have and can be adjusted to fit almost any shoe.

It is true what Andrea says about S40, that it is highly adjustable, but we have even more options with OTB4L because we can adjust to the length of BOTH Straight and ZZ runs separately in the shoe at hand.

Think of it this way: S40 is usually ON the first circle of every Straight run then off, leaving us to decide when to go OTR.

OTB4L is usually ON the first 2 circles of every run. It is twice as easy to beat straight runs when you are ON them for the first 2 circles instead of only the first circle.

3.) OTB4L is usually the most effective system for new cards.

4.) OTB4L is the easiest system to switch from when it is NOT doing well.

What points to OTB4L on the tote board or on our score card is This:

First and foremost we want to see high 2's.

Second we want to see low 1's or said more accurately we want to see our 1's coming in singles rather than multiples.

Third we want to see high 3's.

Fourth, we prefer low straight and ZZ runs over 3.

Now to your question:

The correct SAP (EC) weighted values are:

1's = 1

2's = 2

3's = 4

4's = 8 but 4+s = 4

5's = 16 but 5+s = 8

Here is another way to look at it:

1's = 2+s

2s = 3+s

3s = 4+s

4s = 5+s

5s = 6+s

I think for OTB4L that this second way of looking at your events count is the simplest and best way.

You are using your EC to answer two separate questions:

1.) When should I go ON a Straight run in this particular shoe?

----after it goes 4 (after 2 lost bets)

----after it goes 5 (after 3 lost bets)

----not at all

The answer is very simple. Which am I seeing more of: 4s or 5+s. We can use the ACTUAL count of 4s vs 5+s. No weighting is necessary. If 4s are greater we go on the run after it goes 5. If 5+s are greater, we go OTR after it goes 4.

BUT if we aren't seeing ANY long straight runs or they are all below normal then we don't want to go OTR at all. Why bet on something that isn't happening? Here we simply stop betting after 2 or 3 losses (is that third bet winning or not?) and we simply wait for the run to end and we go right back to OTB4L betting.

2.) When should I go on a ZZ run in this particular shoe?

----after 2 lost bets (2 confirmed 1's) or

----after 3 lost bets (3 confirmed 1's) or

----not at all (no long ZZ runs)

Again, which are we seeing more of? 2 1's in a row or 3 or more 1's in a row.

We beat a single 1 in a row (sporadic 1s) anyway.

After that if double 1's are greater than 3 or more 1's we go 3 bets.

But if most of the ZZ runs are going to 3 or more we go OTR after only 2 losing bets.

I know its a little confusing at first but with study and practice you'll see that we are handling straight and ZZ runs the exact same way.

We want to either win those OTR bets more than we lose them or not make them at all.

[res]

Thanks for that very complete respone, Ellis.

[ECD]

Ellis, thank you for the thorough explanation of OTB4L. Your one post pretty much covers the entire method. No long manual needed.

[ECD]

Ellis, thank you for the thorough explanation of OTB4L. Your one post pretty much covers the entire method. No long manual needed.

Thanks way2fast. BTW, we need to make another movie, "way2fast"! Sounds like I need to have you come and work on my '99 BMer Z3.

I just wanted to add one more element to the OTB4L Chapter and then we can transfer this whole thread to the NOR manual. I'll do that right now.

[Keith Smith]

Ellis computer i shaving difficulty. It is almost impossible to troubleshoot on the phone. I told him to take it to the shop. He will be back on as soon as they fix the monitor issue.

Keith

[TangNangDoaHoa]

The correct SAP (EC) weighted values are:

1's = 1

2's = 2

3's = 4

4's = 8 but 4+s = 4

5's = 16 but 5+s = 8

Here is another way to look at it:

1's = 2+s

2s = 3+s

3s = 4+s

4s = 5+s

5s = 6+s

can you please check if i got ya right. mark 2 under column 1's , 3 under column 2's , 4 under column 3's , 5 = 4's , 6= 5's ??? am i right or im getting nowhere

[res]

You are using your EC to answer two separate questions:

1.) When should I go ON a Straight run in this particular shoe?

----after it goes 4 (after 2 lost bets)

----after it goes 5 (after 3 lost bets)

----not at all

The answer is very simple. Which am I seeing more of: 4s or 5+s. We can use the ACTUAL count of 4s vs 5+s. No weighting is necessary. If 4s are greater we go on the run after it goes 5. If 5+s are greater, we go OTR after it goes 4.

BUT if we aren't seeing ANY long straight runs or they are all below normal then we don't want to go OTR at all. Why bet on something that isn't happening? Here we simply stop betting after 2 or 3 losses (is that third bet winning or not?) and we simply wait for the run to end and we go right back to OTB4L betting.

2.) When should I go on a ZZ run in this particular shoe?

----after 2 lost bets (2 confirmed 1's) or

----after 3 lost bets (3 confirmed 1's) or

----not at all (no long ZZ runs)

Again, which are we seeing more of? 2 1's in a row or 3 or more 1's in a row.

We beat a single 1 in a row (sporadic 1s) anyway.

After that if double 1's are greater than 3 or more 1's we go 3 bets.

But if most of the ZZ runs are going to 3 or more we go OTR after only 2 losing bets.

I know its a little confusing at first but with study and practice you'll see that we are handling straight and ZZ runs the exact same way.

We want to either win those OTR bets more than we lose them or not make them at all.

Ellis,

This is from post #4 where you answered a question for me. It has been bugging the hell out of me. If 4s are more common than 5+s (straight runs) I cannot understand why we would go OTR after 5. You would need a run of 6 to win. Is this a misprint?

Your OTR bets for the ZZ runs seem to take an opposite tack.

Thanks,

RES

[ECD]

Ellis,

This is from post #4 where you answered a question for me. It has been bugging the hell out of me. If 4s are more common than 5+s (straight runs) I cannot understand why we would go OTR after 5. You would need a run of 6 to win. Is this a misprint?

Your OTR bets for the ZZ runs seem to take an opposite tack.

Thanks,

RES

Ha, No Ron, it's all correct as far as I can see but it is a bit of a brain twister when you first see it.

Think about it this way: If 4's are high that means your 4s are staying 4 more often than they are going to 5. So the last thing we would want to do is bet a 4 will go to 5. They aren't going to 5. So we stay OTB4L for 3 bets instead of 2. But once a 4 DOES go to 5 our choice becomes either don't bet at all or bet the 5 will go to 6. So we look to see what our 5s, if any, are doing. If they are going to 6, fine, that is our bet. But if we have had no 6 or mores then why bet at all?

We can't just keep betting OTB4L forever because we would lose embarassingly to any long run, straight or ZZ. So we draw the line at a max of 3 losing OTB4L bets. Then our choice is either bet OTR or don't bet at all until the run ends. We make that decision based on shoe history. It may be that the shoe has NO history of long runs at all. That is why we went to a PL of 3 rather than 2 in the first place. But if there have been no runs at all, why start betting on them? Just wait for the run at hand to end.

We don't want to bet a shoe will do something for the first time. There isn't always a first time in Baccarat. About half of all shoes have no 5 or mores. So we only want to bet on them when we are seeing them.

This is why I don't understand why BK bets a first 3 will go to 4, if, in fact, that is what he is doing. What if you get 9 3's and no 4s? Whoops!

Edited April 17, 2011 by ECD

[res]

Thanks Ellis! That cleared it up for me.

[vinfong318]

The theory behind OTB4L seems to be complicated. Is there any visual or shoes that best illustrate how and when to use OTB4L. ?

Thanks Ellis.

Regards,

Vincent

[ECD]

The theory behind OTB4L seems to be complicated. Is there any visual or shoes that best illustrate how and when to use OTB4L. ?

Thanks Ellis.

Regards,

Vincent

It seems complex when you first see it but it is really very simple. The first thing to do is to get the bet placement routine down. You don't need to keep looking back at the play before last. Simply bet that an Opposite will follow a Repeat and a Repeat will follow an Opposite. Strangely, that is exactly the same as OTB4L. Once you practice a couple shoes and get used to the routine you'll be saying: "Oh, I didn't realize it was that easy".

Once you get the placement routine down automatic, it's just a question of determining the optimum time to bet your single OTR bet on both straight and ZZ runs in the shoe at hand. There are only two options (Modes) after two or after 3 losing OTB4L bets.

The BIG thing we want to see to select OTB4L is lots of twos. More than one every 8 plays. We also like to see single 1's and 3s. We want to see a Back and forth OR count. We DON'T like to see lots of 4s straight or ZZ.

Think of OTB4L as your runless shoe system. We can accomodate runs but we don't like them. OTB4L is for shoes that are neither streaky nor choppy. It likes to see an OR count that hits or crosses 0 every several plays. You will find that about a third of all shoes are highly OTB4L favorable. These are the shoes too streaky for S40 but not streaky enough for F2,3. OTB4L LOVES the 21212 pattern and the 31313 pattern and the 22222 pattern as well as the 23232 pattern.

I will supply some OTB4L samples in the NOR manual, as well as S40 samples and F2,3 samples.

Edited April 30, 2011 by ECD

[ECD]

Here is a shoe one of the guys posted that demonstrates just how durable OTB4L is.

P14213342

P13415141

P212111222321

This shoe tends to do everything wrong for OTB4L. It's full of 4s and 5s. Note the 5 ZZ in the 3rd col. Twos are noticably absent until the last col.

The OR count actually hits -10 ! You would think OTB4L would get killed by this shoe. But if you bet it our basic U1D2 M2 and if you play OTB4L Mode 3 against straight runs and Mode 2 against ZZ runs, you score an amazing +22 in only 60 plays with a high bet of 6 twice.

Just don't get the idea from this that OTB4L can beat ANYTHING. It can't but it can come real close.

OTB4L is definitely the BEST system in the world for Neutral shoes. "Neutral" means not too streaky and not too choppy. But you can see right here that OTB4L can handle a -10 OR count quite easily. We would just PREFER smaller OR counts. But we don't always get what we prefer.

Now, just think of what OTB4L can do with an OR count that never goes beyond 3 or 4 in either direction which is extremely common and getting MORE common every day as we speak.

Edited April 30, 2011 by ECD

[ECD]

So OK, you are thinking how did I know to play Mode 3 against Straight runs and Mode 2 against ZZ runs.

Easy! See all those 4s? Mode 3 beats 4s.

See all those single 1's? Mode 2 LOVES single 1's.

It was as easy as that!

[vinfong318]

Thanks Ellis, It clear off most of my question about OTB4L ... More samples do help new learner like me....

Regards,

Vincent

[Sir Donald]

Ellis,

A very intriguing shoe that you posted below that defies the OR count indicator. After reviewing your comments in post #15, I played the shoe using U1D2M2 with Mode 3 against straight runs and Mode 2 against ZZ runs and scored +21 at play 60. This is really incredible when you consider that the OR count reaches -10 at play 39.

However, in real life, I never would have played OTB4L, as the early four points to F2,3. At play 8, I would start with F2 and by play 20 my score is zero versus +9 with OTB4L. Thereafter, the shoe struggles and finally recovers a bit by play 36 reaching +10 where I quit the shoe.

Would really appreciate your comments on playing this shoe with F2,3......and in particular the transitioning points between F2 and F3 for this particular shoe. Thanks.

Don

[Guest]

Ellis,

A very intriguing shoe that you posted below that defies the OR count indicator. After reviewing your comments in post #15, I played the shoe using U1D2M2 with Mode 3 against straight runs and Mode 2 against ZZ runs and scored +21 at play 60. This is really incredible when you consider that the OR count reaches -10 at play 39.

However, in real life, I never would have played OTB4L, as the early four points to F2,3. At play 8, I would start with F2 and by play 20 my score is zero versus +9 with OTB4L. Thereafter, the shoe struggles and finally recovers a bit by play 36 reaching +10 where I quit the shoe.

Would really appreciate your comments on playing this shoe with F2,3......and in particular the transitioning points between F2 and F3 for this particular shoe. Thanks.

Don

Hi Don! Well that was my whole point here. In spite of the early 4 you would not stick with F in this shoe. Your first OTB4L clue is when the OR count returns to 0 at play 9. The one thing F hates most is when you are getting both 2s and 3s intermixed. But OTB4L loves that.

If you start with F2 you get killed right off the bat. But at play 8 if you decide to go with F3 and make your 3 bet on Bank because B is still the strong side at that point you last a little longer. But had you started the best way possible at play 4 you still arrive at play 12 with a score of -7 with a 5 bet due AND you haven't won a 1 bet since your first bet of the shoe. No one in their right mind is going to make that 5 bet. Remember we try to select the system with the most winning bets.

But particularly noting the 0 OR count at play 9 as well as the single 1's you overlay OTB4L at that point and quickly see that OTB4L-3 would have won every prog with no OTR bets thus far. Yes you had an early 4 but in this case it proved to be a false indicator AND you know that OTB4L-3 beats 4s anyway. That's your system.

As far as the ZZ runs go, I always start with Mode 2 until it proves wrong. It never does prove wrong in this shoe.

Ha, I don't see much point in discussing how best to play the wrong system. I think this shoe demonstrates just how big a foot print OTB4L has in overall shoes.

Edited May 15, 2011 by Guest