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anybody here still use NU SAP? that was probably my favorite and most successful system here. I got too caught up in Maverick and stopped playing SAP. I have been having success lately by combining NU SAP, Trending, and an OR count together. I basically start the shoe slow and bet when I see a good opportunity. I track SAP and the OR count together and I look for exploits or sweat spots for the various programs, then I stop trending and I begin playing a system based on either the OR count or the SAP count. I also am using a variable progression that I could never begin to describe it since it is all based on my performance and feelings about what is going to happen. So I am still using NU SAP to a degree, anyone else?

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John, to catch you up to date a little. I've said here that Maverick is a reasonable system. So is nu sap. But all shoes aren't that black or white. While Maverick is either RD1 or Anti RD1 RD1 has a problem with sporadic 1's and that too often decides the issue. I've often said that you cannot have a winning system that loses to the sporadic 1's even though RD1 is my design.

All 3 NOR systems beat the sporadic 1's which is only one of the reasons they were selected. And while each Nor system is only asked to cover its 1/3 of all shoes, each can actually beat better than half of all shoes.

With Maverick, either selection either wins or loses each play. Black or white. With NOR, there are many patterns and even entire shoes that all three systems beat. So system selection is not a question of which way wins and which way loses right now but instead a question of which of the three is BEST right now. Then NOR uses SAP principles to make that decision even W/O the necessity of maintaining an SAP chart.

You probably found with Maverick that the more you switch the worse you end up. With NOR you'll find you switch far less frequently and in most shoes not at all. Such as the S40 -3 shoe recently posted. The same system, the same Mode all the way through.

And you'll see that when you apply the NOR recommended betting strategy to that shoe, you hit +40 for the second time very early in the shoe. Such is the strength of NOR. AND you'll see that while you were playing the Chop third system, the 7 in a row in the middle of that choppy shoe gave you no problem and you never needed to change systems or Modes to accommodate it.

A lot of thought went into NOR so that it takes advantage of EVERYTHING we have learned in Baccarat. It too utilizes mainly the OR count but can be overruled by SAP. NOR also reccommends betting aggression commensurate with the quality of the shoe just as you have already perceived to do.

I think NOR combines everything we know that is tried and true to produce the best approach to Baccarat the game has ever seen. In fact, I think that is more than an opinion.

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Thanks for the information. I think that I have an idea about what NOR might be. I have actually found myself questioning why I am even using the SAP count because the OR count (following many of the principles that you outlined in the System40 A threads) is sufficient enough. I am going to join again at some point in the near future. For now I will continue with some small trends and look to strike when the OR count presents the exploits.

Oh and lately I have been encountering a lot of those neutral shoes that you have been talking about at Harrah's Chester and Bethlehem Sands. In fact, when I was playing on Friday everybody got up and left the table towards the end because the shoe was not choppy or streaky. They had no idea how to handle the shoe. I used my BTC knowledge to recognize that the shoe was neutral, I stayed and Killed the shoe. I think that the lessons that you teach about the neural shoes are extremely important.

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anybody here still use NU SAP? that was probably my favorite and most successful system here.

Hey John!

Good to hear from you again.

I believe you'll find several members who still run with NuSap and I would be one of the guys who also made a good profit with it and sometimes wonder just why I moved away from it.

I think it's mainly because we're always searching but I said in several threads that I thought NuSap was an extremely good play.

Like Ellis has mentioned, the NOR approach is looking good and it's an extension of one of my other favorites, plain old System 40!

Now I just need the time to devote to it to get as comfortable "under fire" with it to make it a live play for me.

MVS

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Thanks for the information. I think that I have an idea about what NOR might be. I have actually found myself questioning why I am even using the SAP count because the OR count (following many of the principles that you outlined in the System40 A threads) is sufficient enough. I am going to join again at some point in the near future. For now I will continue with some small trends and look to strike when the OR count presents the exploits.

Oh and lately I have been encountering a lot of those neutral shoes that you have been talking about at Harrah's Chester and Bethlehem Sands. In fact, when I was playing on Friday everybody got up and left the table towards the end because the shoe was not choppy or streaky. They had no idea how to handle the shoe. I used my BTC knowledge to recognize that the shoe was neutral, I stayed and Killed the shoe. I think that the lessons that you teach about the neural shoes are extremely important.

Right, to continue their upward Baccarat profit trend the casinos are pulling all stops to produce more neutral shoes because nobody knows how to beat them. (except us) Like I keep saying, we are usually the only winners in OTB4L shoes but we kill them. I'm hoping this casino trend continues even stronger. I'm getting very fond of our members being the only winners at the table.

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Hey John!

Good to hear from you again.

I believe you'll find several members who still run with NuSap and I would be one of the guys who also made a good profit with it and sometimes wonder just why I moved away from it.

I think it's mainly because we're always searching but I said in several threads that I thought NuSap was an extremely good play.

Like Ellis has mentioned, the NOR approach is looking good and it's an extension of one of my other favorites, plain old System 40!

Now I just need the time to devote to it to get as comfortable "under fire" with it to make it a live play for me.

MVS

Right! NOR still takes major advantage of the SAP priciple in all three NOR systems particularly to determine the correct Mode in each system. But instead of using weighted math we are simply looking at balanced math. This is much easier to teach and grasp while producing a more precise Mode decision.

Take OTB4L for instance. All we actually need to know to play perfectly is which there are more of 4s or 5 or mores. Or, if you prefer, which are there less of. We could determine that by adding 5s to our SAP chart. But rather than go through all that weighted math we can pinpoint 4s vs 5 or mores. Since normal 4s is exactly the same as normal 5 or mores all we need do is count actual 4s vs 5+s. We eliminate weighting altogether while pinpointing only the precise information we need for that system.

The same is true of all 3 NOR systems. We eliminate information overload and keep decisions cleaner and simpler.

S40A we are ONLY interested in 3s vs 4+s.

F we are only interested in 2s vs 3s on the weak side.

Makes the whole thing easier to play as well as easier to teach. Few understand mathematical weighting anyway, so why bother. This way is not only just as good. It's actually better.

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Ellis,

I have a question for you. The question deals with Inner-deck consistencies and using the 3 modes of system40 to exploit the bias between each deck. ( if a bias even exists??? )

Have you every looked at breaking a shoe down deck by deck? If so, Do you think it will make any difference? I am probably making no sense, so I will explain what I mean.

Let's say we are playing an 8 deck game. We know that there will be 8 decks in total used. Next, we subtract the burned cards from the total amount of cards in the deck to give us the true number of cards in the entire shoe. So rather than 8 decks, there may only be 7.5 decks that we will need to consider.

After that, we figure out how many cards each deck will contain, and this will be an ongoing calculation based on the total number of cards dealt per hand. We should therefore be able to determine when deck 1, deck 2, deck 3, deck 4...all end.

So here is my question. Can NOR, or System40A be used to find inner-deck consistencies? My question is based on he assumption that each individual deck will present a bias towards either chops, streaks, or neutral.

So I would probably use the OR count to determine the first half of each deck. After determining the mode to play, I would then play that mode for the remaining portion of the deck, then stop and retrack for the first half of the next deck.

Think there could be any merit to this?

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Ellis,

I have a question for you. The question deals with Inner-deck consistencies and using the 3 modes of system40 to exploit the bias between each deck. ( if a bias even exists??? )

Have you every looked at breaking a shoe down deck by deck? If so, Do you think it will make any difference? I am probably making no sense, so I will explain what I mean.

Let's say we are playing an 8 deck game. We know that there will be 8 decks in total used. Next, we subtract the burned cards from the total amount of cards in the deck to give us the true number of cards in the entire shoe. So rather than 8 decks, there may only be 7.5 decks that we will need to consider.

After that, we figure out how many cards each deck will contain, and this will be an ongoing calculation based on the total number of cards dealt per hand. We should therefore be able to determine when deck 1, deck 2, deck 3, deck 4...all end.

So here is my question. Can NOR, or System40A be used to find inner-deck consistencies? My question is based on he assumption that each individual deck will present a bias towards either chops, streaks, or neutral.

So I would probably use the OR count to determine the first half of each deck. After determining the mode to play, I would then play that mode for the remaining portion of the deck, then stop and retrack for the first half of the next deck.

Think there could be any merit to this?

Hi John. In a word, NO. While the number of decks played to date is very important in BJ to arrive at the "true count" it is pretty much beside the point in Bac. Recognize that the first 52 cards dealt in 8 decks is NEVER a complete deck. The number 52, therefore, is pretty much useless information in Baccarat.

Which brings up the question, how long is a trend? While the question is valid, I don't think there is a valid answer. In Bac, some designers use a "look back" of 7 plays. Others use other look back periods.

In my experience these "look backs" regardless of length, hurt you as often as they help you. 7, was picked out of a hat and in some shoes 7 plays might well signal the beginning of a trend. The key word is "might". 7 plays, just as often, signals the END of a trend and has you switching systems just in time for your new system to be totally ineffective.

The same question is the most often question asked in BJ: How long is a low card run and how long is a high card run. The only answer is that both will eventually end in BJ. The BEST way to play your current hand in BJ is to assume the current trend will last throughout your hand. This gives you your best hit rate in BJ. Trying to predict the end of a low or high card run is a MISTAKE in BJ.

Unlike BJ, in Bac, trends can last an entire shoe and the STRONGEST trend usually does. Esp. if we took the time to find the strongest trending table in the casino, in the first place. THAT, I consider the most important aspect of winning Baccarat play. Yet pitifully few take those few minutes which would greatly enhance their play.

Just as pitifully few take the time in BJ to find the most random table - even though they KNOW that Basic Strategy ONLY works in random cards.

In BJ and Bac our table selection goals are exactly opposite. In BJ we are looking for the most random table so that our B.S. plays will work.

In Bac we are looking for the MOST biased table to insure that our bias system will work. In Bac, ALL systems regardless of origin, play a specific bias. If there is no bias, our system won't work. Therefore it is CRUCIAL we find the strongest bias BEFORE we start play. AFTER is too late. EVERYBODY knows how to play the shoe after it is over. The top player knows before the shoe starts.

Don't even suggest there is no bias. Biases have been there for 30 years and are as obvious as the nose on your face IF and only IF you look for them.

But no, most players simply take the first open seat they can find whether Bac or BJ. Those guys are hooked on gambling and will never win. The idea is to get hooked on winning and take the time to perform the necessary steps whether Bac or BJ.

As far as the idea of predicting the beginning and ends of trends, forget it. Play every trend until it proves wrong.

It's the same mistake card counters make. A high count means bet high. But what if the count keeps going higher for the next 7 hands. Now you wish you had waited until you actually began seeing the tens. But it's too late now!

Edited by ECD
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  • 2 weeks later...

Dear Ellis,

Hi, Thanks for the infor. You are right on the NOR approach and I win almost every shoe in the casino just that sometimes I just win a few chip due to flat betting..... I try using Prog U1D2M2 with max of 5 losses... It does pretty well, I only look at OR count so far and I totally do not know when to start looking at the SAP what the SAP trying to tell me.... and I found that in the first 20 plays SAP count is not that important compare to in the middle of the shoe.... ( My casino plays a 6 deck mini Baccarat , its a fast game where they deal every 30 seconds, therefore left little time for me to decide on which system to use)

Is there a summary of SAP count and which mode we should go into?

Thanks.

Regards,

Vincent

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Dear Ellis,

Hi, Thanks for the infor. You are right on the NOR approach and I win almost every shoe in the casino just that sometimes I just win a few chip due to flat betting..... I try using Prog U1D2M2 with max of 5 losses... It does pretty well, I only look at OR count so far and I totally do not know when to start looking at the SAP what the SAP trying to tell me.... and I found that in the first 20 plays SAP count is not that important compare to in the middle of the shoe.... ( My casino plays a 6 deck mini Baccarat , its a fast game where they deal every 30 seconds, therefore left little time for me to decide on which system to use)

Is there a summary of SAP count and which mode we should go into?

Thanks.

Regards,

Vincent

Exactly right Vincent. The SAP count gains importance as the shoe goes on. It has an important job in NOR which his to tell us which mode to play with our chosen system. We can almost always determine the system before we can determine the mode.

EXCEPT, when we enter a game mid shoe. For instance, when we enter a shoe at play 20 or more, we can nearly always determine the system AND the mode BEFORE we make our first bet. This is a rather ideal way to play.

Unfortunately we could not use that strategy at the Sands, Bethlehem where we played most of the 14 shoes Keith will post if he hasn't already. Every table was either completely full or completely empty with a partial game on the tote board. But unfortunately they don't play out the game on the tote board. They start a new game. We learned that the hard way. This is the first time I ever saw a casino deploy that strategy. But hey, it's The Sands and those guys are sharper than two tacks.

They bought every single book I ever wrote. Their Purchasing Dept would call me directly, and identify themselves. They'd say "Look Ellis, we, of course know that you won't sell to us BUT, we'll pay top dollar and if you say no, we'll just have one of our employees buy it for us anyway. How the hell can you argue with that logic? See, I told you, these are very sharp characters. Caesar's did the exact same thing, BTW. Unfortunately, I inadvertantly taught these guys how to deal both BJ and Bac for max casino profit.

Right, the SAP count is very important for determining Mode but you don't need a full SAP chart for this.

For instance, with F, all you need to know is which am I seeing more of on the weak side 2s or 3s. 2s you play F3. 3's you play F2.

With 40 your question becomes which am I seeing more of 3s or 4+s? 3's you play MODE 3 - 3 losing bets before going OTR. 4+s you play Mode 2 - 2 losing bets before going OTR.

OTB4L is 4s vs 5+s. 4s you play mode 3 - 3 losing bets. 5+s you play mode 2, 2 losing bets.

If you think about it long enough you'll see that this is all just plain common sense.

You know, Vincent, there is a lot BETWEEN flat betting and U1D2 M2. You seem to be taking an ALL or Nothing approach. You are leaving out the 112, the 123 and the U1D2 W/O the M2. You are also leaving out the 234 and the 345.

You'll see in the 14 shoes that we only got up to the U1D2 M2 once or twice. Very tough conditions. But we got to the 234 many times and the 345 once or twice. I see the U1D2 M2 as more aggressive than any of those. Relax, take smaller steps . Save U1D2 M2 for only your best shoes. Even then, the 345 is likely to work better.

We'll talk about this more in the betting chapter in the NOR manual.

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Unfortunately we could not use that strategy at the Sands, Bethlehem where we played most of the 14 shoes Keith will post if he hasn't already. Every table was either completely full or completely empty with a partial game on the tote board. But unfortunately they don't play out the game on the tote board. They start a new game. We learned that the hard way. This is the first time I ever saw a casino deploy that strategy. But hey, it's The Sands and those guys are sharper than two tacks.

I play at Sands Beth all the time since it is so close to my university, only about 7 minutes. Nice casino but I am not a fan of baccarat there. Too many rude people and always way too crowded. If you go at 7am, there are a ton of people there and if you go at 12am there are still a ton of people there. I hate starting shoes from the first decision, but you really have no choice at that casino. It isn't so bad though, they let me text on my phone which is nice. I get yelled at for doing that at AC. I have played played system40 there and done alright, the conditions can be a bit odd at times.

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When will the NOR manual be ready?

It's ready now John. It's under the heading The NOR Approach. I will add a chapter on betting and a chapter on cash mgt, sample games, a glossary and then edit, all for the newest members. But the older members should be able to play it correctly now. For you guys the rest is just review.

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I play at Sands Beth all the time since it is so close to my university, only about 7 minutes. Nice casino but I am not a fan of baccarat there. Too many rude people and always way too crowded. If you go at 7am, there are a ton of people there and if you go at 12am there are still a ton of people there. I hate starting shoes from the first decision, but you really have no choice at that casino. It isn't so bad though, they let me text on my phone which is nice. I get yelled at for doing that at AC. I have played played system40 there and done alright, the conditions can be a bit odd at times.

It's always good to have a member back up what we say. Right, it's a nice casino and BIG but it needed to be 3 times bigger. I didn't count but they seemed to have about 25 Bac tables but they needed 75 on the days we played there. A mad house. They waited until 2PM to open one pit while enough players had been standing around to fill the whole pit since 10AM. It must be they don't have nearly enough dealers trained. One pit boss was trying to get the dealer to hit a 4 card 7-7 tie. So I guess they don't have enough pit bosses trained either. They DO have a 6 week dealer school and one dealer told me they start at about $40,000. Ha, and people say there are no jobs!

Some of the players WERE a bit rude but I chalk that up to frustration from waiting to play and also to a lack of English. But I sensed they were TRYING to be friendly.

Keith and I opened a dead table every shoe we played but every table filled up before they dealt the first hand. These guys don't know you can bet B AND P to get the shoe started. None of them knew the rules. A complete mad house. I don't know why so many Asians want to play a game they have NO understanding of. I don't mean ALL Asians. I'm just talking about those particular Asians.

No, that casino is definitely not for me. And WHY do they have the G.D. music so freaking loud? You can't hear yourself think. But the restaurants were good and the prices fair. Geez, even Keith complained about the noise and he plays in a band! Then, of course, I caught a really bad case of the flu apparently on the plane on the way to PA. That didn't help.

BTW, I managed to lose 3 of the cards I played. I must have left them in the restaurant where I was studying them. One was a -8 and the other two were +20s. I think we played a total of 17 shoes including the few we played at Hollywood.

Late Friday afternoon at the Sands they had 4 times as many players as seats and the Asians were buying in with stacks of $100s. But by 7 PM we had a choice of tables and they were buying in with 10s and 20s. What does that tell you? Geez, we could have done fine just betting against those guys. Some of their bets had us laughing. We had a 212 run go for about 20 plays. So what were they betting? That the 2s would go to 3. Heaven help them!

Edited by Guest
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It's always good to have a member back up what we say. Right, it's a nice casino and BIG but it needed to be 3 times bigger. I didn't count but they seemed to have about 25 Bac tables but they needed 75 on the days we played there. A mad house.

yes, very nice, but very poor playing conditions. I personally have never seen so many Bac tables. During Christmas time I was over at Harrahs AC, they only had 1 single table open and I was playing alone most of the time. But sands beth has well over 10 running at a time, and it is very hard to find a seat. Same problem at Harrahs Chester, another one that I frequently play at.

Some of the players WERE a bit rude but I chalk that up to frustration from waiting to play and also to a lack of English. But I sensed they were TRYING to be friendly.

I have met some nice players in Sands but overall they are rude. I'm pretty sure that I am one of the few Caucasians ( and youngest ) that plays the game in Sands, so I guess they have no reason to be nice to me. I am actually taking a break from the game because I cannot deal with the people that are playing it at sands. Even when I win, I still come home pissed off and disgusted from all the terrible things i see. Good thing you guys are here to show people the light.

I don't know why so many Asians want to play a game they have NO understanding of. I don't mean ALL Asians. I'm just talking about those particular Asians.

You got that right. I have seen some very bad decisions made in this casino. You could make a ton of money standing outside of the casino selling your system. They come in by the bus load at all times of the day and are so clueless. I can't help but wonder where they come from and why they keep returning. They never seem to win, they all must be part of some big team or something. There is always one guy who stands back and watches, It is kind of suspicious. I also have noticed a new fashion trend. Many of the sands baccarat players have a very long finger nail, usually on their smallest finger. I don't know if this is a weird fashion statement, or if it has something to do with drugs. But I stay the hell away from those people. You can find a lot of shady people walking around sands at all times of the day. especially in the baccarat and roulette sections.

No, that casino is definitely not for me. And WHY do they have the G.D. music so freaking loud?

that actually keeps me awake. If you think that Sands is loud then you should walk into Harrahs Chester. Actually harrahs Chester is worse because it is always freezing.

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