davelevad Posted August 19, 2011 Report Share Posted August 19, 2011 I went to the Horseshoe tonight. I had written a review about this casino last year: Horseshoe Casino, Hammond (Whiting), INI asked the pit boss how often the shoes are replaced with new cards, and he said once every 3-4 days. So, new cards come in only about twice a week.There were 18 tables in play, and I walked around, studying the toteboards. Some were very one-side dominant, others, quite neutral, others choppy. There did not seem to be much consistency overall, and the bias would change often. For example, I watched an extremely choppy start turn into a very streaky run of Player. Then at another table, long streaks would be followed by heavy chop.I found what I thought was the choppiest table at the no-commission baccarat table 1. Upon the start of a new shoe, I sat down and recorded the following shoe (without playing it):It start out very choppy, and then become very streaky.After the shoe ended, I walked over to the other no-commissions baccarat table and noticed it was super choppy - almost all 1s and 2s with little else. I returned to my table and decided to play a game, looking for signs of chop and use S40 accordingly.Here is the shoe I played live:Play by play:First 4 hands was 211, which seemed to suggest chop, so I started with S40 on hand 5, initially in mode 3. After losing 3 in a row at hand 8, I go OTR at hand 9. Upon winning it, I go off the run at hand 9. Losing that, and noticing the strong P dominance, I decide to switch to F2 and bet P the next hand, but only using 1 unit instead of 2, because I was unsure. F2 seems to have been the right choice, and I switch to B side at hand 18 successfully. But then, upon losing 2 in a row at hand 20, I switch sides to P and immediately lose the 3rd bet, after which I immediately go back to B per the new F2 rules, but unfortunately, I lose the 4th bet, too, bringing me to my -8u stop loss. The 212 had bit me.I should have stopped there, since my stop loss was hit, but I start the progression over with a 1 bet. I noticed 1s, 2s, and 3s forming, so I switch to OTB4L, which works for a few bets, but ultimately, I'm back down to -8u, the second time I hit my stop. I lose confidence at this point and am afraid to bet again. Of course, a superb Players streak of 10 then arrives, just in time for me to completely miss it, LOL.When the streak ends, I decide to test the waters with a 1 bet in F2 mode. I know losing this would take me beyond my stop loss, but I decide to continue playing regardless, albeit very carefully. I convince myself I'm just gaining more experience at this point, albeit a costly one.F2 from that point on works very well and I'm quite elated (and exhausted) when I'm back to break even with my complete buy-in restored by hand 52. I have no nerve to continue onward, though. I'm just happy I'm simply back to zero. For the remainder of the shoe, I sat at the table watching and recording the shoe, which turns out to be fairly OTB4L friendly.I know I should have walked away at my -8u stop loss, but I must admit, I didn't want to lose the shoe so quickly. I was very lucky to have won the 2 bet at hand 37; otherwise recovery would've been scarier. It was scary enough! I feel very, very lucky to have broken even, and this turned out to be a "free" lesson.In hindsight, simply playing F2 all the way through would've done great. Plus, use a progression like U1D2 all the way up, not stopping at 4. But when things are not going well, the natural inclination seems to be to want to change up, try something else. Sometimes it will help, and other times, not.The previous shoe at that table was also very streaky (in the above scorecard), and I had thought to just play F2 at the beginning of the next shoe. But because chop was strong in the shoe prior to last (same colored deck), as well as the next table, as well as showing up in the first 4 hands of the new shoe, I went with S40 to start, which turned out to be a bad mistake.Any comments and suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.