Horseshoe Casino, IN, Scorecards & Play

[davelevad]

Where's the thread? Would you mind sharing with the rest of us? Thank you.

I'm awaiting Daytrader's email reply, after which I'll post his scorecard here.

[muling427]

Thanks for the support, muling! And congratulations on your fabulous winnings ... I hope soon I can continue reporting the same! Wow - and doing it online - must be that much more challenging! Ellis always said not to play online, because you have no table selection and are playing a random game. But if you're winning consistently that way, more power to ya! Perhaps you should write a tutorial about how you're able to win online. Are you simply looking at the bias in the last 20 hands and playing the appropriate system to match the bias?

I just play online at Dublinbet because it is a brick and mortar casino. But unfortunately, I cannot find any any bias in the table. So I just select the system from the 8 to 20 first hands.

I apply NOR rules and all Ellis' teaching. I rarely keep the same system all along the shoe but I change very carefully.

Game is fast at Dublinbet, 30 to 40 mn and about 60 hands a shoe. For the moment, I don't work ,so I can play 10 shoes a day in the comfort of my canape, watching television. So this results are good but not fabulous.

I need far more testing to be sure it is not pure luck. But it is promising, to know that one can win without table selection.

Bernard

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Davelevad,

Just emailed you OBL shoe for your review and help to post here. Thank you!

Daytrader77459

[davelevad]

From Daytrader:

Yellow=player.* Green=banker.*

My comments to the right side focusing on mode 3 and OTR decisions.

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Davelevad,

Thanks for posting the OBL shoe. You can see that the final is +4u. However, for me, I would have quit after +6u then 1st loss and ending with +5u. This is into the 3rd column - and I am looking to exit with a winning total. One other key point - had we started earlier in the shoe, the net total would be much better. This is another reason to exit early as I recognized that I missed the majority of column 1 which had many winning entries. Any ideas/comments? Thank you.

Daytrader77459

[davelevad]

Hi, Davelevad,

Thanks for posting the OBL shoe. You can see that the final is +4u. However, for me, I would have quit after +6u then 1st loss and ending with +5u. This is into the 3rd column - and I am looking to exit with a winning total. One other key point - had we started earlier in the shoe, the net total would be much better. This is another reason to exit early as I recognized that I missed the majority of column 1 which had many winning entries. Any ideas/comments? Thank you.

Daytrader77459

Thanks so much, Daytrader -

Your replay helps provides a different perspective on Shoe 2. Yeah, when I played it live, I had started out S40 but switched to OTB4L after seeing the many 2s and 3s. Unfortunately, that's when the chop happened, and it scared me back to S40. I guess had I just stuck to either S40 all the way or OTB4L all the way, I would've done fine.

One question: at hand 26 after losing your first 112 and you go OTR, you place your OTR bet on B. But there was a ZZ run in progress, so shouldn't your bet for hand 26 be on P (to catch the ZZ OTR)? It would have won. Then you would've paused on hand 27, which would've lost the OTR bet, since the ZZ ends. And you would have resumed betting OTB4L on hand 28, which wins, and the rest proceeds as written. If so, your score would be 1u higher overall.

Thanks again.

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Davelevad,

Yes, correct. My bad! In a hurry to post shoe for you - but great eye. Again, valuable to have multiple sets of eyes for study cases, reviews.

I think the most important points are:

1. Is there a real bias on the table or shoe?

2. If yes, probably best to commit to one of the NOR systems until either stopped out or hit profit-taking exit points like half-decade mgmt.

3. I prefer conservative 1u bet OTR for one bet. Then if continued OTR, play out 1u bets OTR until 1st loss. Then back to (2) above.

4. Focus on managing bankroll equity highs especially in 3rd column or 4th column. I would even suggest 2nd column if unable to get ahead after 25 hds!

I will try to post a shoe (or two) later today - highlighting some trouble areas for NOR players. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

[davelevad]

Hi, Davelevad,

Yes, correct. My bad! In a hurry to post shoe for you - but great eye. Again, valuable to have multiple sets of eyes for study cases, reviews.

I think the most important points are:

1. Is there a real bias on the table or shoe?

2. If yes, probably best to commit to one of the NOR systems until either stopped out or hit profit-taking exit points like half-decade mgmt.

3. I prefer conservative 1u bet OTR for one bet. Then if continued OTR, play out 1u bets OTR until 1st loss. Then back to (2) above.

4. Focus on managing bankroll equity highs especially in 3rd column or 4th column. I would even suggest 2nd column if unable to get ahead after 25 hds!

I will try to post a shoe (or two) later today - highlighting some trouble areas for NOR players. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

Thanks for the clarifications and great points.

I guess what still challenges me the most so far is your first point: trying to determine whether there's a "real bias" in the shoe. How does one really know whether it's a real bias, or just a transitory one? In many of my shoes, the bias persists long enough for me to reach +10u quickly, but in others, it changes and then it becomes a real struggle to get out of the mud.

With regards to changing systems during a shoe, I guess I picked that up from Ellis during the PA/AC trip. Of course, he always had good reasons to change, and fortunately, the changes worked out in the games we had played there. I guess the decision making process is simply transferred from P vs. B to System 1 vs. System 2. Either way, we're relying on shoe history to make the decision, which of course, may not be consistently reliable.

[Guest]

We will always get some shoes with no detectable bias, including neutral. And we will get shoes wherein the bias totally changes. These are both tables we should reject. Unfortunately in the latter, we may already be in the game. Our choice is to get out or switch systems. I usually get out unless the new bias appears very strong. Too often, we can end up chasing ever changing biases.

If all else fails, I'd rather wait for the more stable new cards in the morning.

Players don't quit enough shoes. They get too into the challenge. I have a lot of +1 shoes. If I can't make headway +1 is a lot better than the nearly inevitable -8 (or more).

We aren't there for the challenge. We are there to take advantage of lack of challenge. If that sounds unheroic to you, you've got the right idea.

The general public thinks pro players are those that can beat ANY shoe. Such players don't exist.

[davelevad]

We will always get some shoes with no detectable bias, including neutral. And we will get shoes wherein the bias totally changes. These are both tables we should reject. Unfortunately in the latter, we may already be in the game. Our choice is to get out or switch systems. I usually get out unless the new bias appears very strong. Too often, we can end up chasing ever changing biases.

If all else fails, I'd rather wait for the more stable new cards in the morning.

Players don't quit enough shoes. They get too into the challenge. I have a lot of +1 shoes. If I can't make headway +1 is a lot better than the nearly inevitable -8 (or more).

We aren't there for the challenge. We are there to take advantage of lack of challenge. If that sounds unheroic to you, you've got the right idea.

The general public thinks pro players are those that can beat ANY shoe. Such players don't exist.

Thanks, Ellis - Yeah, I find myself really falling into the trap of trying to beat the game at hand, because it seems such a waste if after investing so much time and observation to find what I think is the "right" table, having to get up and start the process all over again. So, I get "lazy" and would rather just sit and fight through the muck at hand, trying to outwit the shoe. I suppose that's part of the illusion of a "shoe," with its nice, tidy beginning and ending.

With regards to "new cards," Horseshoe has 8 tables where they use new cards every shoe (since they let players touch the cards), so based on your experience, shouldn't these tables be perpetually consistent?

In my experience at Horseshoe, I'm finding they are not. I've played 2 games at these new cards tables and lost both, and I've watched many other shoes at these tables, and they are all over the place - chop, streak, neutral, random, changing - there does not seem to be any consistency at all. It appears as random as random can be.

So, if these tables with perpetually new cards in every shoe are not consistent, wouldn't it stand to reason that the regular tables with new cards only early in the morning would also not be consistent?

[BigVic]

In my experience at Horseshoe, I'm finding they are not. I've played 2 games at these new cards tables and lost both, and I've watched many other shoes at these tables, and they are all over the place - chop, streak, neutral, random, changing - there does not seem to be any consistency at all. It appears as random as random can be.

If this is the case, I wouldn't play there. Unfortunately it may be the only casino near you but if the Horseshoe's conditions suck, avoid that casino...save up for Vegas once or twice a year. Just my 2 cents.

[Guest]

Dave, at the new cards each shoe tables, do they do a wash each shoe? Are they 14 player tables?

[davelevad]

Dave, at the new cards each shoe tables, do they do a wash each shoe? Are they 14 player tables?

Ellis, no, they do not wash. They take the new cards out of a plastic bag, stack them up, and place the stack immediately into one chute of the ShuffleMaster machine. Then they take out the other stack from the other chute (new cards after the prior game) and perform the usual prep (cut deck, load into shoe, burn).

All mini-bacc tables at Horseshoe are 8 player tables, but they allow betting over the shoulder.

They have 1 big bacc table, which I believe is 14 players, but I have never had a chance to play it. I saw one game in progress there last year, but in my recent sessions this year, it has always been closed so far.

[Guest]

Thanks, Ellis - Yeah, I find myself really falling into the trap of trying to beat the game at hand, because it seems such a waste if after investing so much time and observation to find what I think is the "right" table, having to get up and start the process all over again. So, I get "lazy" and would rather just sit and fight through the muck at hand, trying to outwit the shoe. I suppose that's part of the illusion of a "shoe," with its nice, tidy beginning and ending.

With regards to "new cards," Horseshoe has 8 tables where they use new cards every shoe (since they let players touch the cards), so based on your experience, shouldn't these tables be perpetually consistent?

In my experience at Horseshoe, I'm finding they are not. I've played 2 games at these new cards tables and lost both, and I've watched many other shoes at these tables, and they are all over the place - chop, streak, neutral, random, changing - there does not seem to be any consistency at all. It appears as random as random can be.

So, if these tables with perpetually new cards in every shoe are not consistent, wouldn't it stand to reason that the regular tables with new cards only early in the morning would also not be consistent?

I need to know about the card prep before I can answer. If there is no wash, these are likely factory preshuffled cards at the new cards tables. But the floor tables are likely regular cards boxed card order.

When they start a new cards shoe, are all 8 decks in one box or in 8 single deck boxes?

[davelevad]

I need to know about the card prep before I can answer. If there is no wash, these are likely factory preshuffled cards at the new cards tables. But the floor tables are likely regular cards boxed card order.

When they start a new cards shoe, are all 8 decks in one box or in 8 single deck boxes?

At the new-cards-every-shoe tables, all 8 decks are in a plastic bag. (As well, they discard the old shoe in a plastic bag.) They simply remove the cards from the bag, stack them, and load immediately into one of the ShuffleMaster chutes.

[Guest]

Ellis, no, they do not wash. They take the new cards out of a plastic bag, stack them up, and place the stack immediately into one chute of the ShuffleMaster machine. Then they take out the other stack from the other chute (new cards after the prior game) and perform the usual prep (cut deck, load into shoe, burn).

All mini-bacc tables at Horseshoe are 8 player tables, but they allow betting over the shoulder.

They have 1 big bacc table, which I believe is 14 players, but I have never had a chance to play it. I saw one game in progress there last year, but in my recent sessions this year, it has always been closed so far.

OK, those 8 deck bags are factory pre shuffled. And the factory is doing a good job mixing the shoe types. Don't play those tables.

Now the question is what are the other tables using? They might be ALL factory preshuffled but I doubt it.

What you want to ask is at the reused cards tables did those cards start out in 8 single deck sealed boxes in boxed card order. Ask a dealer or the casino Mgr - the pit bosses there don't seem to know anything.

[davelevad]

OK, those 8 deck bags are factory pre shuffled. And the factory is doing a good job mixing the shoe types. Don't play those tables.

Now the question is what are the other tables using? They might be ALL factory preshuffled but I doubt it.

What you want to ask is at the reused cards tables did those cards start out in 8 single deck sealed boxes in boxed card order. Ask a dealer or the casino Mgr - the pit bosses there don't seem to know anything.

Okay, thanks, I will give that a try. Might be easier to call them up and ask to speak to the casino manager, or someone who can give me a definite answer about this. Will let you know what I find. Thanks.

[davelevad]

I tried calling, and the operator tried to connect me to the managers, but of course, there was no response. Probably too busy.

I guess the only way to get the answer is to camp out on the floor all night long and into the morning and catch them when they bring in the new cards.

[Guest]

Factory preshuffled is legal in some states, obviously Illinois and Nevada and still illegal in others: NY, PA, MS, NJ. The problem is some Casino Control Commissions require that the casinos prove that all the cards are there. Can't do that with factory preshuffled. But Commissions eventually relent when enough pressure is put to bear.

You should ALWAYS let it be known that you REFUSE to play factory preshuffled - just as you refuse to play the must play every hand rule.

When factory preshuffled started in Australia a few years ago the first attempts produced ridiculously choppy shoes. But casinos taught the factories how to get mixed results and it spread to Macau and Singapore and now here in some states.

We should boycot such tables and let casinos know that we are boycotting. We don't know that all the cards are there and we don't know that they aren't fixed.

We got rid of the play every hand rule this way and I'd like to get rid of factory preshuffled.

[davelevad]

Okay - I have some interesting information.

Horseshoe, IN

I called back 3 times, and finally got in touch with a manager.

She states definitively:

- New cards at all tables are factory pre-shuffled.

- New cards on the floor tables come in twice a week, and the schedule always changes, and she would not say when exactly the next one is scheduled.

So, it turns out the pit-bosses were right regarding the new cards coming in every few days, not every morning.

Also, just for clarification, Horseshoe is in Indiana, not Illinois. (It is right at the border, since until relatively recently, casino gambling was illegal in IL.)

Rivers, IL

I'm in the process of getting a definitive answer from Rivers, but I've already seen that for the new-cards-every-shoe tables, they use factory preshuffled decks (same kind of plastic bags, no wash), so I'm assuming it'll be the same for the other regular floor tables. The casino's hours are 9AM - 7AM, so new cards start at 9AM. A manager is supposed to call me back to confirm.

Harrah's, IL

Now, here's another interesting bit of information, which may be more promising:

I played at Harrah's in Joliet, IL, last year, and I knew they hand shuffled. So, I called them just now and here's their procedure:

- New cards at 12 noon every day. (That's when the table opens.)

- Cards start out in 8 single deck sealed boxes in boxed card order.

- Every new shoe is hand washed and hand shuffled. (They do not use ShuffleMaster at all.)

- Burn cards are dealt face-up. (Card counting, anyone?)

- They only have one table, and it is in the high-limit room. You must be seated to bet.

- If it's busy, they require you to bet at least once every 3 hands, otherwise, they'll ask you to give up your seat. (During quiet times, they've allowed me to sit at the table without betting. Usually it's quiet for the first few shoes of the day on weekdays. I have never been there when it's busy in the evenings or weekends.)

- During quiet times, the spread is $25 to $10,000. During busy times, they raise the minimum to $50 or more.

Last year, I wrote a review of Harrah's at ImSpirit here:

Harrah's Casino, Joliet, IL

The shoes I played there last year:

1. B143615163213111253 (first shoe of the day, jumped in mid-shoe, partial)

2. P23223222115121113312311112112211314 (first shoe of the day)

3. P121426112131123131 (second shoe of the day, partial)

Here are my scorecards from Harrah's last year ... (At the time, I had just joined BTC, and was trying to apply F2, System 40, and OTB4L, though, as a neophyte, I didn't do so well.)

Shoe 1: (first shoe of the day)

Shoe 2: (first shoe of the day)

Shoe 3: (second shoe of the day)

Do you think Harrah's might be a more promising casino where I can gain a consistent edge due to their prep procedures?

The thing about Harrah's is that it is a 3-hour train ride for me each way. That's a 6-hour/day commute! But I suppose it will be worth it if I can find a definite advantage there, compared to the closer Horseshoe & Rivers.

Thanks

[davelevad]

By the way, Shoe 2 at Harrah's was the one where I reached +19u and ultimately lost the shoe at -13u, because I wanted to reach +20u! For one lousy unit! Typical bacc OCD, LOL!

[Guest]

By the way, Shoe 2 at Harrah's was the one where I reached +19u and ultimately lost the shoe at -13u, because I wanted to reach +20u! For one lousy unit! Typical bacc OCD, LOL!

BTW, everybody makes the above mistake when first starting out. OK, now we are getting someplace. I'm not real fond of your choices:

At Horseshoe, yes, you have table selection. But we are relying on old cards eventually falling into one reliable game type or another. But the fact is that is just a supposition because nobody really knows what happens with cards after 16 shoes because nobody else uses cards longer than that.

Yes we would know to avoid new cards but on the floor, how to we know for a fact how old the cards are? And even if we had that information, I'm not sure it's telling us anything. The best you could do at Horseshoe is go by each shoe start, which may, for all we know, be completely meaningless. We DO know that playing this way encountered more obstacles than normal. Yes, now we know why but I'm not sure that helps us.

It's sorta like class C hands in BJ. These are hands you can't win no matter how you play them. Yes, all our intelligence gathering tells us in advance that we are going to lose and why. But since you have already placed your bet, there is not a damn thing you can do about it. What good was the info?

Harrah's we have new normal cards each shoe but no table selection. There went half of our advantage.

BTW, what size is the table at Harrah's? If it is 14 player, they likely wash all 8 decks together. If it is 8 player, they likely wash 2 decks at a time.

If it is 14 player and an 8 deck wash, there are ways to tell what they are going for, chop or streak.

If it is 8 player 2 deck wash all I can tell you is that was consistent at Hollywood. But your 3 sample shoes only show a little consistency- 40 and OTB4L. See, this is a brand new type of game presentation so I have little experience with it. 8 player tables themselves are fairly recent.

Again, I don't like your choices but of the two, I would choose Harrah's by a slim margin.

Don't they also have boats in the Chicago area?

Mishigan and Wisconsin, Baccarat was illegal last I knew. Only BJ.

Oh, yeah, right, I meant IN, not IL. It would stand to reason that IL would have a better gaming commission than IN. IN doesn't appear to have any since everything goes in that state.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Guest

[davelevad]

BTW, what size is the table at Harrah's? If it is 14 player, they likely wash all 8 decks together. If it is 8 player, they likely wash 2 decks at a time.

If it is 14 player and an 8 deck wash, there are ways to tell what they are going for, chop or streak.

If it is 8 player 2 deck wash all I can tell you is that was consistent at Hollywood. But your 3 sample shoes only show a little consistency- 40 and OTB4L. See, this is a brand new type of game presentation so I have little experience with it. 8 player tables themselves are fairly recent.

Again, I don't like your choices but of the two, I would choose Harrah's by a slim margin.

Don't they also have boats in the Chicago area?

Harrah's table is mini-bac with 10 seats. (Nice, plosh seats, at that!)

The new cards happen only once at the day's start. The rest of the day, they just keep washing & shuffling the old cards.

From watching the dealer last year, they wash all the cards together on the table (big swirl of cards, all together), and then separate into 8 piles, and then ripple shuffle a couple of the piles together at a time. (Just like they do it online at BetPhoenix, well, at least back when you could watch them shuffle on BetPhoenix.)

Yes, if you're referring to the river-boats, there are several, but they are literally more than 4-5 hours drive away from me (and I don't have a car - the car I drove to PA/AC was a rental), and simply impractical for me to visit.

Ok, then, it's sounding more and more that I really can't find a definite, consistent advantage in the casinos in my area, and my best course of action is to simply not play. I don't want to gamble. This is not my purpose in playing. It is to make money with better than even chances, well, better than negative chances. And it sounds like my odds with my options are still not worth the risk.

I'm happy with that actually. I really am.

[Guest]

First I always tell everyone their best option is not to play casinos. It is far tougher to win than most people realize and requires more research and study than most are willing to put in. I'm only here for those who are going to play anyway.

OK, so the 3 Harrah's shoes you posted were not new cards. The next step would be to check brand new cards at Harrah's at 12 noon several times to see if they are producing a consistent shoe type. If so, you have a playable advantage there. If not, you are reduced to playing what you see. When a new card prep produces a particular shoe type it is usually good for 3 shoes.

But you will have to decide for youself if it is worth that much time and effort.

Horseshoe, I just can't honestly say. No one has experience with that kind of arrangement and I'd just be guessing. Personally I would scratch them off my list.

But if you quit, at least you are quitting on a high note - well, except for the last two shoes. That is certainly more than most can say. But let's face it: given your location and circumstances.....

[davelevad]

First I always tell everyone their best option is not to play casinos. It is far tougher to win than most people realize and requires more research and study than most are willing to put in. I'm only here for those who are going to play anyway.

OK, so the 3 Harrah's shoes you posted were not new cards. The next step would be to check brand new cards at Harrah's at 12 noon several times to see if they are producing a consistent shoe type. If so, you have a playable advantage there. If not, you are reduced to playing what you see. When a new card prep produces a particular shoe type it is usually good for 3 shoes.

But you will have to decide for youself if it is worth that much time and effort.

Horseshoe, I just can't honestly say. No one has experience with that kind of arrangement and I'd just be guessing. Personally I would scratch them off my list.

But if you quit, at least you are quitting on a high note - well, except for the last two shoes. That is certainly more than most can say. But let's face it: given your location and circumstances.....

Just to clarify, Harrah's Shoes 1 and 2 were new cards, because they were the first shoes of the day. (The tables open at noon, but literally no one is there to play for the first hour. I played the first shoe on each of those days.) Harrah's Shoe 3 is the second shoe of the day, and it is old cards.