Horseshoe Casino, IN, Scorecards & Play

[Guest]

Ellis, no problem at all about the ImSpirit comments - I've posted them all. Not sure this "Jim" is Archer, though, as it seems he is not signing with Archer's usual email address.

Dave, you could be right but Archer, alias Jim, alias Jimske is the only person to ever call me a "known scammer". He is very clever with aliases and email addresses. We ended up having to kick him off BTC 3 or 4 times under various user names all under different email addresses. You might try checking his IP.

On the other hand, if you are right, I still don't take being called a known scammer lightly, by any Jim, Archer or not. They will pay!

[zebra]

Hey Paul! I copied your great post from the coffee talk lounge 2 thread to ImSpirit too. Sorry, I just couldn't help myself.

I am honored

Paul

[joeystyle]

I also would like to chime in and thank Papa Joe for giving a detailed explanation on how to PROPERLY use SAP. One thing that was driving me to want to drink (I just drink a diet coke or hot tea) something strong at Bac table is when I see these consecutive events without a defined "1". I am very thankful for your remedy on that. I do have a question in relation to starting a new shoe after exploiting the most recent one. I know this is something that Ellis had pointed out to me back in January of February of this year regarding NOT betting at all for lengthy stretches while a shoe is being played out in AC Casinos. They kind of frown on that. Especially, if I have to wait possibly close to a mid shoe to diagnose a defined exploitable SAP situation and then commence betting. Can a player sit there for the first 30 or 40 decisions before making their first bet, especially if its a crowded table and other are waiting to jump in. Just asking for advice on how to handle on what I should do prior to finding an exploitable SAP condition.

Thanks for everyone's help!

Ciao

Joey

[davelevad]

I also would like to chime in and thank Papa Joe for giving a detailed explanation on how to PROPERLY use SAP. One thing that was driving me to want to drink (I just drink a diet coke or hot tea) something strong at Bac table is when I see these consecutive events without a defined "1". I am very thankful for your remedy on that. I do have a question in relation to starting a new shoe after exploiting the most recent one. I know this is something that Ellis had pointed out to me back in January of February of this year regarding NOT betting at all for lengthy stretches while a shoe is being played out in AC Casinos. They kind of frown on that. Especially, if I have to wait possibly close to a mid shoe to diagnose a defined exploitable SAP situation and then commence betting. Can a player sit there for the first 30 or 40 decisions before making their first bet, especially if its a crowded table and other are waiting to jump in. Just asking for advice on how to handle on what I should do prior to finding an exploitable SAP condition.

Thanks for everyone's help!

Ciao

Joey

Joey,

From my experience, it depends on the policy of the casino you're playing at. Horseshoe IN will allow you to sit there without betting forever. I've seen people camped out over their scorecards, waiting to bet just once or twice in a shoe. The dealer never asks them to leave, even when it's crowded and people are standing to bet. (Over-the-shoulder betting is allowed at all tables there.)

On the other hand, Harrah's in Joliet has a policy which requires you to bet at least once in 3 hands. If it's crowded and you don't bet at that frequency, you'll be asked to give up your seat. But if it's quiet, they've let me sit and not bet as long as I pleased. (Over-the-shoulder betting is not allowed there.)

So, maybe the difference is whether over-the-shoulder betting is allowed. If it is, then they're more lax about seated players not betting. If it's not, then they're more strict.

[Guest]

Joey,

From my experience, it depends on the policy of the casino you're playing at. Horseshoe IN will allow you to sit there without betting forever. I've seen people camped out over their scorecards, waiting to bet just once or twice in a shoe. The dealer never asks them to leave, even when it's crowded and people are standing to bet. (Over-the-shoulder betting is allowed at all tables there.)

On the other hand, Harrah's in Joliet has a policy which requires you to bet at least once in 3 hands. If it's crowded and you don't bet at that frequency, you'll be asked to give up your seat. But if it's quiet, they've let me sit and not bet as long as I pleased. (Over-the-shoulder betting is not allowed there.)

So, maybe the difference is whether over-the-shoulder betting is allowed. If it is, then they're more lax about seated players not betting. If it's not, then they're more strict.

Right, all casinos have that unwritten 1/3 rule but they enforce it on a very selective basis. Joey, it is always best to play when the casino is least crowded, when empty seats are plentiful. Otherwise you end up in that dilemma - should I take this seat while I can or complete my table selection search? One tip is to check the tote board from the isle, not with your hand on the back of the seat. There is something about the casino goer mentality. If you show interest in a seat some idiot is going to duck under your arm and take your seat. I usually leave it alone but there is a cure for that. Just say: "Hey Buddy, the last 3 guys to sit there lost their shirts and one committed suicide." That usually works!

Or you can try the "queer" approach. That works to get anybody out of any seat. But be careful, sometimes it backfires.

Edited September 4, 2011 by Guest

[moneybac]

:rolleyes:did you know that the bags for the cards old or new have a serial number????,of course you know they write time an date but serial no.l quess that's how they got better at there factory shuffle,work as a team,sounds like BTC,work as a team let's get them,team,lol

At the new-cards-every-shoe tables, all 8 decks are in a plastic bag. (As well, they discard the old shoe in a plastic bag.) They simply remove the cards from the bag, stack them, and load immediately into one of the ShuffleMaster chutes.

[Guest]

:rolleyes:did you know that the bags for the cards old or new have a serial number????,of course you know they write time an date but serial no.l quess that's how they got better at there factory shuffle,work as a team,sounds like BTC,work as a team let's get them,team,lol

Hi moneybac, I'm not getting what you are saying here. The old cards have always been bagged with time date and table number and, I assume, filed with the game films played with those cards both for future casino reference and to settle any future disputes. New cards prior to factory preshuffle have always come in single deck boxes sealed at the factory with a serial number. Some factories ship preshuffled cards in 8 deck boxes and some wrapped in plastic. Are you saying the 8 deck serial number could be associated with the shuffle type? Or what is it you are saying?

I know that the first attempts at factory shuffle produced ludicrous results. Members were turning in shoes with 50 1's and such. I know that The first Gold Coast preshuffled cards highly favored streak. But today's preshuffled cards are all over the place following no trend or perhaps several different trends. I wouldn't play them but if I had to I would simply bet against all trends while the cards are still new.

Perhaps you are saying that this is yet another step up in casino technology??? that we should stay abreast of???

Edited September 5, 2011 by Guest

[moneybac]

I was walking by the table as the dealer was putting away the old cards,to take away,maybe for tomorrows game who knows,the pitboss yells i need the serial no,serial no.i stop i never heard that one before,learn something everydaythe dealer shows the bag,it looked like the top of the bag,and the pitboss looked and wrote the numbers i guess,they kind of blocked my vission,and it happen fast,so next time i will watch more carefully,then maybe ask,who knows they might tell me.i thought maybe you knew ellis,serial number,maybe there's something there,part of the puzzle,the big baccarat mystery

[Guest]

I was walking by the table as the dealer was putting away the old cards,to take away,maybe for tomorrows game who knows,the pitboss yells i need the serial no,serial no.i stop i never heard that one before,learn something everydaythe dealer shows the bag,it looked like the top of the bag,and the pitboss looked and wrote the numbers i guess,they kind of blocked my vission,and it happen fast,so next time i will watch more carefully,then maybe ask,who knows they might tell me.i thought maybe you knew ellis,serial number,maybe there's something there,part of the puzzle,the big baccarat mystery

Ha, thanks Moneybac. NOW I get you! When it comes to casinos you have to think in your devious mind. And you know what? You're usually right!

[Guest]

Guys! You know what? Check any forum and you'll soon see. This is comradery at its finest! This simply doesn't happen anywhere else. A member has a problem. 14 other members jump in to do all they possibly can to solve that problem. THIS is how it SHOULD be! This does my heart good!

[davelevad]

Yes, thanks to all for the help & support.

I'm trying now to decide how to proceed ...

1) Return to the lion's den at Horseshoe IN-

Pro's: plentiful tables, fast games;

Con's: factory pre-shuffled cards, several-day old cards at floor tables (no fixed replacement schedule, so never know when they're new).

2) Rivers IL-

Pro's: relatively easy shoes the last two sessions, and new cards at floor tables at 9AM;

Con's: very long games, very crowded, factory pre-shuffled cards.

3) Harrah's IL-

Pro's: hand wash/hand shuffled cards, new cards every noon;

Con's: only 1 table, must be seated to bet, 1/3 bet rule

Any suggestions and advice would be much appreciated.

[BigVic]

Yes, thanks to all for the help & support.

I'm trying now to decide how to proceed ...

1) Return to the lion's den at Horseshoe IN-

Pro's: plentiful tables, fast games;

Con's: factory pre-shuffled cards, several-day old cards at floor tables (no fixed replacement schedule, so never know when they're new).

2) Rivers IL-

Pro's: relatively easy shoes the last two sessions, and new cards at floor tables at 9AM;

Con's: very long games, very crowded, factory pre-shuffled cards.

3) Harrah's IL-

Pro's: hand wash/hand shuffled cards, new cards every noon;

Con's: only 1 table, must be seated to bet, 1/3 bet rule

Any suggestions and advice would be much appreciated.

Go with the hand shuffles hand washed shoes....IMO they will have the most exploitable bias for you.

[shuttlesmasher]

Hopefully in due course, i can upgrade my units to $500 chips and just win 4 units a session. I'm effin sick of paying the bank. paid like 80k interest last year....@%@#!$@#!$@#.

put it another way, if i can control myself, my current winnings of $750, with the goal of 4 units a session, $25 a unit, I'd have to hit a pretty disastrous few shoes to lose 30 units.....

[shuttlesmasher]

Moreover:

I used to remember a time, that just plain gambling actually got me consistently to +5 units...each time..

However at the time: we were betting $20 a unit and didn't think winning $100 a session was good enough, we started with $200 and tried to win $200. 10 bets.

In hindsight, it will be more difficult to win 10 bets to win $200 as opposed to just winning 5 bets.

Thus have changed my money management

[joeystyle]

Right, all casinos have that unwritten 1/3 rule but they enforce it on a very selective basis. Joey, it is always best to play when the casino is least crowded, when empty seats are plentiful. Otherwise you end up in that dilemma - should I take this seat while I can or complete my table selection search? One tip is to check the tote board from the isle, not with your hand on the back of the seat. There is something about the casino goer mentality. If you show interest in a seat some idiot is going to duck under your arm and take your seat. I usually leave it alone but there is a cure for that. Just say: "Hey Buddy, the last 3 guys to sit there lost their shirts and one committed suicide." That usually works!

Or you can try the "queer" approach. That works to get anybody out of any seat. But be careful, sometimes it backfires.

Once again great advice, Ellis. I will do just that over the next two days. I will leave no tote board un turned in AC as I do my aisle viewing. I am on a mission to search and "exploit" the type of tables that you,Papa Joe,Paul and Andrea,etc rock when you use NOR with SAP. I will be patient because I have all day and all night when I am there. As to paraphrase the old Army recruiting commercial, this is not a job, but a career.

Ciao

Joe

[Guest]

Go with the hand shuffles hand washed shoes....IMO they will have the most exploitable bias for you.

Right Vic but they only have one table and I think Dave said it's a 3 hour train ride. No table selection. What if he gets there and the table is no good that day. Will he have the discipline to not play or will he start seeing trends that aren't really there?

BTW Dave, at Horseshoe, does a player cut the cards? Some of our foreign members have reported that some factory shuffle casinos don't even offer a cut.

Look, put yourself in the position of the casino buying the preshuffled cards from the factory. Better yet, put yourself in the shoes of the factory. The casinos are, by far, your biggest customer. You already ticked them off by selling them cards that any player could beat. What would be your perfect solution. I'm thinking designer shoes. You design about 10 shoes that nobody could beat. You assemble the cards in those ten orders. Presto, you've got a real happy customer - and players who are none the wiser.

So the cards are going into a shuffle machine. If it's like Hollywood after the prep, one shoe goes into the machine but the other they just deal. And who's to say if the damn machine was ever even turned on. Or what if the program chip just puts the cards right back in the same order they were. Unbeatable. And think about it - what difference does a single cut really make?

Or maybe I've been around casinos so long I'm begining to think like they do.

Back in the '80s all casinos used the same BJ shuffle and the dealer schools all taught that specific shuffle. Casino BJ profits were 6% of the drop. But next, the casinos went to 8 standard BJ shuffles and any table the players were winning, a new dealer was sent in with a different shuffle. Casino BJ profits went from 6% to 15% everywhere virtually over night. I know this for an absolute fact because at that time I was an editor for BJ Confidential and we reported all the BJ drop % for AC and Vegas monthly.

I know I get severely ridiculed on other forums for suggesting that casino shuffles are rigged. But here's the thing. When I was there investigating those shuffles and their results day in and day out, those idiots weren't even born yet. And let them answer me just ONE question: If casinos are as saintly as they believe, exactly why is there more than ONE standard casino shuffle??? Wouldn't one standard shuffle be a whole lot easier on the casinos and their dealers. WHY did they make that change from one standard shuffle??? Please, anybody???

Then the casinos did the exact same thing in Baccarat. They went from the universal standard Bac fan shuffle to the 8 BJ shuffles. Casino Bac profits went from 3% of the drop to 26% of the drop.

Hey, those naive guys can ridicule me all they want but I was there. They were still a gleam in their father's eye. To me it is not a theory. It is a fact that I personally watched happen and investigated thoroughly. And I wasn't the only one.

And here's another point. I used shuffle information to beat BJ on a daily basis. My ridiculers have never won in their lives and never will. Who's laughing now? And they sit there now saying liar, liar pants on fire about stuff that happened before they were even born. Ha, then they want me to teach them for free. Freaking naive juvenile dilinquents.

Oh, sorry, I didn't mean to get carried away - again.

Edited September 6, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Moreover:

I used to remember a time, that just plain gambling actually got me consistently to +5 units...each time..

However at the time: we were betting $20 a unit and didn't think winning $100 a session was good enough, we started with $200 and tried to win $200. 10 bets.

In hindsight, it will be more difficult to win 10 bets to win $200 as opposed to just winning 5 bets.

Thus have changed my money management

Right shuttlesmasher. Nostalgicly I remember those old $20 Bac chips. And guess what Dave and I were playing at Trump Plaza in A.C.? Yep, $20 Bac chips. Some things never change.

[davelevad]

Right Vic but they only have one table and I think Dave said it's a 3 hour train ride. No table selection. What if he gets there and the table is no good that day. Will he have the discipline to not play or will he start seeing trends that aren't really there?

BTW Dave, at Horseshoe, does a player cut the cards? Some of our foreign members have reported that some factory shuffle casinos don't even offer a cut.

Look, put yourself in the position of the casino buying the preshuffled cards from the factory. Better yet, put yourself in the shoes of the factory. The casinos are, by far, your biggest customer. You already ticked them off by selling them cards that any player could beat. What would be your perfect solution. I'm thinking designer shoes. You design about 10 shoes that nobody could beat. You assemble the cards in those ten orders. Presto, you've got a real happy customer - and players who are none the wiser.

So the cards are going into a shuffle machine. If it's like Hollywood after the prep, one shoe goes into the machine but the other they just deal. And who's to say if the damn machine was ever even turned on. Or what if the program chip just puts the cards right back in the same order they were. Unbeatable. And think about it - what difference does a single cut really make?

Or maybe I've been around casinos so long I'm begining to think like they do.

Back in the '80s all casinos used the same BJ shuffle and the dealer schools all taught that specific shuffle. Casino BJ profits were 6% of the drop. But next, the casinos went to 8 standard BJ shuffles and any table the players were winning, a new dealer was sent in with a different shuffle. Casino BJ profits went from 6% to 15% everywhere virtually over night. I know this for an absolute fact because at that time I was an editor for BJ Confidential and we reported all the BJ drop % for AC and Vegas monthly.

I know I get severely ridiculed on other forums for suggesting that casino shuffles are rigged. But here's the thing. When I was there investigating those shuffles and their results day in and day out, those idiots weren't even born yet. And let them answer me just ONE question: If casinos are as saintly as they believe, exactly why is there more than ONE standard casino shuffle??? Wouldn't one standard shuffle be a whole lot easier on the casinos and their dealers. WHY did they make that change from one standard shuffle??? Please, anybody???

Then the casinos did the exact same thing in Baccarat. They went from the universal standard Bac fan shuffle to the 8 BJ shuffles. Casino Bac profits went from 3% of the drop to 26% of the drop.

Hey, those naive guys can ridicule me all they want but I was there. They were still a gleam in their father's eye. To me it is not a theory. It is a fact that I personally watched happen and investigated thoroughly. And I wasn't the only one.

And here's another point. I used shuffle information to beat BJ on a daily basis. My ridiculers have never won in their lives and never will. Who's laughing now? And they sit there now saying liar, liar pants on fire about stuff that happened before they were even born. Ha, then they want me to teach them for free. Freaking naive juvenile dilinquents.

Oh, sorry, I didn't mean to get carried away - again.

Ellis, thanks -

Regarding your questions:

Yes, cut card is always offered to a player at Horseshoe.

(BTW, regarding the cut card, is there some technique to cutting the shoe that might influence the outcome? I see most players try to cut exactly in the middle, but I don't know why. If we are assuming the shoe's original order is the one "desired" by the casino, then, shouldn't we cut at the very end or head of the shoe to try to preserve that order as best as possible?)

Regarding, "will he start seeing trends that aren't really there?" ... I suppose that's always a problem I'll have anywhere. Do I only know the trend isn't really there when I hit the SL? But yeah, if I hit my SL at Harrah's, there's no getting up to go to another table.

I'm just trying to find the most stable, consistent shoes, which are supposed to be the easiest to win. Like you said before, I'm not playing baccarat for the challenge. I don't want to gamble or guess. I want to make money knowing that I can. Just need to find the best place to do it, if it exists.

[Guest]

Ellis, thanks -

Regarding your questions:

Yes, cut card is always offered to a player at Horseshoe.

(BTW, regarding the cut card, is there some technique to cutting the shoe that might influence the outcome? I see most players try to cut exactly in the middle, but I don't know why. If we are assuming the shoe's original order is the one "desired" by the casino, then, shouldn't we cut at the very end or head of the shoe to try to preserve that order as best as possible?)

Regarding, "will he start seeing trends that aren't really there?" ... I suppose that's always a problem I'll have anywhere. Do I only know the trend isn't really there when I hit the SL? But yeah, if I hit my SL at Harrah's, there's no getting up to go to another table.

I'm just trying to find the most stable, consistent shoes, which are supposed to be the easiest to win. Like you said before, I'm not playing baccarat for the challenge. I don't want to gamble or guess. I want to make money knowing that I can. Just need to find the best place to do it, if it exists.

Well at least you are composing the right questions and the right concerns. I wish I was half as good at composing the right answers.

In Bac I don't see where it makes a bit of difference where you place the cut card. I have a different attitude about it. I try to cut the cards smoothly and professional looking, to go with my casino image. I like to have the casino a little intimidated. In BJ I do the same with my signals - fast smoothe and professional. Ha, no I'm not showing off. If the dealer knows he's dealing with a pro, he's not going to risk cheating. I do the same with my chips. I wish I could do that finger flip trick like the pro poker players do. Ha, but my chips would end up rolling down the isle.

My old friend Eddie Olsen, publisher of BJ Confidential and a Pulitzer prise winning author conducted a huge study on cut card placement in BJ wherein you try to cut the tens to the top. But alas, it was a complete failure when he tried to publically demonstrate this in a casino.

That seems to be par for the course as far as live casino demonstrations go. Bobby Singer failed miserably in his public BJ casino demonstration. So did my friend Jerry Patterson both in BJ and Roulette. And my friend Ron DiBenedetto, author of Precision BJ, whom you met, also failed when he tried to publically demonstrate his prowess at Roulette and that right after winning his last 50 sessions on the floor. Strangely, I've never had any problem whatsoever in live casino demonstrations But no one else has ever been able to do it. So, consider what you saw extremely rare ha, although I only had one observer in your case - not counting the pit boss.

As far as the best place to do it is concerned, I think Vegas, AC, Tunica and Foxwood. The rest all leave something to be desired.

Edited September 6, 2011 by Guest

[davelevad]

Well at least you are composing the right questions and the right concerns. I wish I was half as good at composing the right answers.

In Bac I don't see where it makes a bit of difference where you place the cut card. I have a different attitude about it. I try to cut the cards smoothly and professional looking, to go with my casino image. I like to have the casino a little intimidated. In BJ I do the same with my signals - fast smoothe and professional. Ha, no I'm not showing off. If the dealer knows he's dealing with a pro, he's not going to risk cheating. I do the same with my chips. I wish I could do that finger flip trick like the pro poker players do. Ha, but my chips would end up rolling down the isle.

My old friend Eddie Olsen, publisher of BJ Confidential and a Pulitzer prise winning author conducted a huge study on cut card placement in BJ wherein you try to cut the tens to the top. But alas, it was a complete failure when he tried to publically demonstrate this in a casino.

That seems to be par for the course as far as live casino demonstrations go. Bobby Singer failed miserably in his public BJ casino demonstration. So did my friend Jerry Patterson both in BJ and Roulette. And my friend Ron DiBenedetto, author of Precision BJ, whom you met, also failed when he tried to publically demonstrate his prowess at Roulette and that right after winning his last 50 sessions on the floor. Strangely, I've never had any problem whatsoever in live casino demonstrations But no one else has ever been able to do it. So, consider what you saw extremely rare ha, although I only had one observer in your case - not counting the pit boss.

As far as the best place to do it is concerned, I think Vegas, AC, Tunica and Foxwood. The rest all leave something to be desired.

Thanks - appreciate the good advice.

Speaking of Vegas, my friend Tom provided a great Vegas tips guide that I just posted at ImSpirit: Things to See & Do in Vegas.

Also, he asked if during the next BTC meet / demonstration there, if you'd be up to playing more than 6 games.

Well, in his words:

Personally speaking, 6 out of 6 would not convince me (not counting the 6 shoes already won); 25 out of 30 would convince me; 32 out of 40 would; 39 out of 50 would; 60 out of 80 would; or 73 out of 100 would. 80 out of 100 & i'd be convinced & impressed. 90 out of 100 & I'd be convinced & in awe. Seeing is believing. Hopefully you will be able to go to Vegas to watch Ellis play some more.

Not sure it'd be possible for you to play 30 games, but maybe 20?

Not that you have anything to prove. Just passing along some feedback.

Thanks again for everything.

Dave

[Guest]

Thanks - appreciate the good advice.

Speaking of Vegas, my friend Tom provided a great Vegas tips guide that I just posted at ImSpirit: Things to See & Do in Vegas.

Also, he asked if during the next BTC meet / demonstration there, if you'd be up to playing more than 6 games.

Well, in his words:

Personally speaking, 6 out of 6 would not convince me (not counting the 6 shoes already won); 25 out of 30 would convince me; 32 out of 40 would; 39 out of 50 would; 60 out of 80 would; or 73 out of 100 would. 80 out of 100 & i'd be convinced & impressed. 90 out of 100 & I'd be convinced & in awe. Seeing is believing. Hopefully you will be able to go to Vegas to watch Ellis play some more.

Not sure it'd be possible for you to play 30 games, but maybe 20?

Not that you have anything to prove. Just passing along some feedback.

Thanks again for everything.

Dave

OK OK You Win - I'll make it 2 out of 3!

[davelevad]

OK OK You Win - I'll make it 2 out of 3!

Clarification - by "convinced," he's referring to the basis of the edge, that is, the premise that baccarat shoes are consistently exploitable because they are non-random. (Not questioning that Ellis is a great baccarat player, irregardless, so I hope you did not misunderstand or were offended.)

Well, I was happy to be the guinea pig myself and planned to play 20, 50, 100, 1000+ shoes and document my journey. But I'm afraid I might be stuck at 11 for awhile, out of fear that I have not yet secured that true edge and thus am not presently capable of properly applying this approach to its maximum potential.

If anyone else is up to the task, please let me know, thanks.

[Guest]

Clarification - by "convinced," he's referring to the basis of the edge, that is, the premise that baccarat shoes are consistently exploitable because they are non-random. (Not questioning that Ellis is a great baccarat player, irregardless, so I hope you did not misunderstand or were offended.)

Well, I was happy to be the guinea pig myself and planned to play 20, 50, 100, 1000+ shoes and document my journey. But I'm afraid I might be stuck at 11 for awhile, out of fear that I have not yet secured that true edge and thus am not presently capable of properly applying this approach to its maximum potential.

If anyone else is up to the task, please let me know, thanks.

It was a joke but regardless there is no such word as irregardless.

[Guest]

Clarification - by "convinced," he's referring to the basis of the edge, that is, the premise that baccarat shoes are consistently exploitable because they are non-random. (Not questioning that Ellis is a great baccarat player, irregardless, so I hope you did not misunderstand or were offended.)

Well, I was happy to be the guinea pig myself and planned to play 20, 50, 100, 1000+ shoes and document my journey. But I'm afraid I might be stuck at 11 for awhile, out of fear that I have not yet secured that true edge and thus am not presently capable of properly applying this approach to its maximum potential.

If anyone else is up to the task, please let me know, thanks.

I'm having a little trouble with the word "consistently": Basically you're looking for chop, streak, neutral or strong side. Really, that is usually only 3 types because strong side is usually a form of streak.

There is no guarantee that you'll see any of those at any given time. Then, your best choices are either don't play or change casinos. Of course the more tables a casino has the more likely you are to find an exploitable game. Your win rate depends on the strength of the biases you find.

Mornings are best because that is when you are most likely to find a table with both colors with the same bias. Plus new cards are usually more consistent. That is your best situation. Next is when both colors are biased but different biases - usually chop and neutral. Next is a super streaky table at night.

But you always have days when you see none of the above.

Keith is asking me to do a 4 hour seminar in Vegas soon to sort of kick off the new manual. Details will be forth coming.

He also asked me to tell you that the videos of the last seminar are now available. I think his price is $199.

I inquired about the audio problem caused when I took the mic off. But that is all digitally repaired now and I doubt you'll even notice.

He's been busy moving plus a major project at work hit him at the same time. But he should have his head back above water very soon.

I'm thinking maybe late Oct or Nov for a Vegas seminar. I'll probably play mostly at Gold Coast. Maybe we can get a special room rate there and maybe do the seminar right there. Although it would be the first time any casino has ever let me do a seminar on the premises. At first Hollywood said they would but then changed their mind when they checked me out.

Casinos let anyone and everyone else do their seminars there, including all my competitors but not me. Although the casinos have always come to my Vegas seminars. Ought to tell you something.

[shuttlesmasher]

My question is money management:

Say you start with $25 units. If my aim is to just win 4 units per shoe at a risk of 8 units. I think 5 x 8 units is enough? or should i be safer and go 10x8 units?

At how many units should i actually go to $50 units? when i hit 80 units? or 160 units?