ADN for NOR by Ellis

[Guest]

Shoe Type: Mixed

Like last Friday night in Hollywood play the night before the seminar we can sometimes get shoes that are simply all over the place and really don't follow any NOR shoe type. This is particularly true of old cards, after 10 or so shoes but can turn up any where at any time. (BTW, that is why we requested, and were promised a new cards every shoe midibac table for the seminar folks. However, the same day they got our confirming email, the Casino Mgr. not only closed our midibac table - he had it physically removed from the casino. You don't suppose that was because we killed that very midibac table the last four times we played it, do you?)

When you attempt NOR in such shoes you find yourself switching systems far too often and usually to no avail and remember, we don't like switches. They are a necessary evil. In general the more we must switch, the worse we do. We know what to do when ONE run type prevails:

Straight runs = F2-3 (BBBBB PPPPP)

ZZ runs = S40- 2 or 3 (PBPBPBPB)

TT runs = OTB4L- 2 or 3 (PP BB PP BB PP)

All well and good but what if 2 or 3 run types are prevailing about equally in the same shoe??? When you can't easily decipher the shoe type it is most often an ADN shoe.

So, should all NOR players learn ADN? Only if you can add it to your quiver W/O letting any of the other 3 systems slip out of your mind.

We have both casual and pro players here at BTC.

The pros want to leave no stone unturned.

ADN Rules next!

Edited August 20, 2011 by Guest

[Jim Files]

That is Great Ellis. I have been running into shoes like that lately on Bet Phoenix and getting abused pretty badly. Can't wait to see the rules for ADN as they apply to Nor approach. Also can't wait for the video and what all from the seminar!

Thanks again for everything!

Jim

[TomM]

Great Ellis, I have been having a hard time the last few outings at Bph. I was just about to review my cards to see what is up and devise something to handle there latest offerings.

One thing they have added to the agenda lately is the blacking out of the video feed at the end of the shoe so you can not tell whether the cards are changed or not. The first time I encountered this I noticed that a streaky shoe was usually followed by a choppy one. That was fine but lately the shoes are far more difficult. Most shoes are very segmented and the various segments tend not to last long which can have you switching from betting opposites to F2/3 to OTB4L and back again. In the past I over used F3 with a very conservative progression and even slipping into F/4 at times with success but this current crop of shoes is not really ripe for that The weak side just doesn't stay weak enough long enough for that strategy any longer there.

They may have just hired some talent to stack the decks. With the video blackout between shoes and having no idea how many shoes may be in play at any time makes speculating on the next shoe basically worthless IMO.

Strangely, in my last two sessions there I had my winning shoes after I had quit money mode and switched to fun mode. In each case I had turned off the computer and poured myself some wine and flipped on the tube and then logged back into a shoe in progress and played very well just off the board without the hassle of all my multi-tracking devices. Even though all the tracking can be a hassle the one huge benefit for me is numerically seeing what comprises a tough shoe and quit it or make adjustments. In other words, if I see the numbers are against me and I continue to play it is easy to predict the outcome. You may not win every shoe this way but you will always know exactly why you lost one. This is one of the reasons I keep very accurate cards with a lot of data even though it is admittedly a PIA at times.

Even though these highly segmented shoes are nothing new it does require more vigilance especially if you have no table selection as playing online or in a one table town.

Perhaps ADN Net will help with these shoes. If not maybe I will toss the card have a drink and play the board and see what happens.

[Guest]

Great Ellis, I have been having a hard time the last few outings at Bph. I was just about to review my cards to see what is up and devise something to handle there latest offerings.

One thing they have added to the agenda lately is the blacking out of the video feed at the end of the shoe so you can not tell whether the cards are changed or not. The first time I encountered this I noticed that a streaky shoe was usually followed by a choppy one. That was fine but lately the shoes are far more difficult. Most shoes are very segmented and the various segments tend not to last long which can have you switching from betting opposites to F2/3 to OTB4L and back again. In the past I over used F3 with a very conservative progression and even slipping into F/4 at times with success but this current crop of shoes is not really ripe for that The weak side just doesn't stay weak enough long enough for that strategy any longer there.

They may have just hired some talent to stack the decks. With the video blackout between shoes and having no idea how many shoes may be in play at any time makes speculating on the next shoe basically worthless IMO.

Strangely, in my last two sessions there I had my winning shoes after I had quit money mode and switched to fun mode. In each case I had turned off the computer and poured myself some wine and flipped on the tube and then logged back into a shoe in progress and played very well just off the board without the hassle of all my multi-tracking devices. Even though all the tracking can be a hassle the one huge benefit for me is numerically seeing what comprises a tough shoe and quit it or make adjustments. In other words, if I see the numbers are against me and I continue to play it is easy to predict the outcome. You may not win every shoe this way but you will always know exactly why you lost one. This is one of the reasons I keep very accurate cards with a lot of data even though it is admittedly a PIA at times.

Even though these highly segmented shoes are nothing new it does require more vigilance especially if you have no table selection as playing online or in a one table town.

Perhaps ADN Net will help with these shoes. If not maybe I will toss the card have a drink and play the board and see what happens.

Right, you and Tom aren't the only ones having trouble with Bet Ph. lately. New casinos learn fast. The black out is a good tip off. I did play a couple of ADN shoes there and it did fine. Just don't get the idea that you can substitute it for every shoe type. I'm going to give you a purely mechanical way to play it first but then I'll show you how to adjust your suspend betting point to match the frequency of 2s in the shoe at hand. It automatically beats EVERYTHING else other than 2s out of hand.

[Guest]

The advantages of Net Betting:

I devised Net Betting MANY years ago. You have two equal progs. Each of your progs will have an "entry" on both sides, B and P. No, you DON'T bet both sides. That's only for getting shoes started when the dealer won't deal otherwise. What you do is subtract the low entry from the high entry and ONLY bet the difference always on the side of the high entry.

For instance: You might end up with a 3 on B and a 2 on P. Your table bet would be 1 unit on B.

The main advantage is that your avg table bet size is much lower than SS (Single Side) betting the same prog.

For instance: ADN deploys a 12345 U1D2 M2 prog. That prog was designed for net betting. Ordinarily if we lost such a prog, we would lose 15 units. But when net betting the other side must win at least a 21212. Therefore the MOST a whole prog loss could put us down is 7 units instead of 15. That is even considerably less than our standard 123 4 prog.

Yet our win goal does not change. we can still use +10 and even +15 or +20 if we hit our +10 in the first two columns of 20. And we can still use half decade cash mgt in the last col.

The rest of our cash mgt. can also be used. One you hit +10 do not go below +1.

Your stop loss is still -8.

Another advantage of net betting is your commission is much lower (about half) because you B bets are cut almost in half.

One word of caution: At first it may appear to you that ADN beats almost everything. Up until we start adjusting our suspend betting point ADN is just another break even mechanical system. But, as with Modes with the other 3 NOR systems, we can make ADN better than break even by strategically adjusting our suspend betting point.

One other word of caution. It may, at first, appear to you that ADN out performs our other NOR systems. It does in the mixed shoe type but the other 3 systems are still best in their designated shoe type.

One last advantage of Net Betting: Your highest entry is 5 but your occassional 5s will ALWAYS end up opposed by a 1 or a 2. So your highest bet is a rare 4. But, you can always play ADN as a 3 Hi system by always opposing your 5s with 2s. You'll find this makes very little difference to the overall outcome.

ADN is a great system. But don't put all your eggs in one basket. It's a BIG temptation with this system!

[Guest]

ADN History

I designed ADN several years ago. When I decided to move on to, hopefully, greener pastures this caused the only rift the BTC membership ever had. That was when Mark T decided to strike out on his own and a handful of members went with him. But Mark couldn't persue ADN because of copyright. Hence Maverick. I think they all and we all too wish we had the whole thing to do over again. I don't think anyone reacted well including me. But it never got even close to getting out of hand as occurs on a daily basis on other nameless forums.

It seems that no one except me saw the inherent problems with ADN. But today I have largely corrected those ADN problems as you will soon see. It's a different animal today.

[Guest]

ADN Likes and Dislikes:

Likes:

ADN loves both straight and ZZ runs. Unlike F, ADN does not care at all which side a straight run is on. It gets on ALL straight runs quickly and then wins every bet on that run.

Unlike F which wins every other bet on ZZ runs, ADN wins every bet on ZZ runs again after quiclkly getting on them.

Unlike TB4L which loses to garbage, ADN, like OTB4L beats garbage.

ADN likes everything a shoe can produce except perhaps, 2s.

Dislikes:

ADN has a love / hate relationship with 2s.

Normal 2's are 1 every 8 plays, 9 per shoe or 2.5 per col of 20.

Half of all shoes have low 2s and half have high 2s.

ADN automatically beats the half of all shoes with low 2s. (Dave, there is your mechanical break even winning half) The fewer the 2s the higher your score. BUT, it also takes a big bite out of high 2s, the higher the better. I know, that seems very strange but it is the nature of the beast.

BTW guys, our new friend Dave is a formally trained Math guy too. Far more so than me. I'm sure we can depend on Dave to check me out real close on all things Math. Have fun Dave!

High 2s usually cause TT runs: (PP BB PP BB) See, all those extra 2s have to be someplace so they often follow each other. ADN loves TT runs, the longer the better! And that is where the darn thing defies math. Net Betting teams up with BSA (Bet Suspension Adjustment) to literally win every bet in TT runs in a system whose ONLY nemesis is 2s.

Look, I'm a Math guy. I'm the last guy on Earth that would tell you random Math could be defied. But there it is right under our noses. If it lost to all 2's it would be a 50/50 system. 2's are 1/4 of all events. But it beats a whole buch of the darn things as you will see in the simple examples I'll provide you in a minute here. Yep, in other words we can PROVE it. Ha, what did you expect? I'm the best there is!

Edited August 21, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

How to Play ADN:

Remember, ADN stands for Across, Down Net bet

You will like this: there is only one rule:

ADN - Both progs bet Across after a Repeat and Down after an Opposite. Bingo, that's it.

Use a red prog and a black prog so they are easy to follow on your score card.

Bet an U1D2 M2 on both progs. When a prog uses up all its bets it goes to 0 and stays at 0 until it wins, then restarts at 1.

Bet suspensions:

High 2s suspend after 3 losing bets.

Low 2s suspend after losing the 5. Go to 0 until that prog wins a 0. Then restart at 1.

4th bet 4 entries in high 2s. If it won or would have won last time, do it again. If not, suspend at 3 losing bets.

But always go for at least 3 losing prog entries or you are going to miss some runs.

Recognize that when I say won or lost here I'm not talking about your table bet. I'm talking about whether your prog entry was circled (won) or not (lost).

Recognize that when one prog suspends the other prog keeps going.

Tip: When one prog suspends the other prog ordinarily continues on at 121212. But, I think when one prog is suspended you are better off to flat bet the other prog at 222. Then when it loses, go back to 1. If you lose that initial unopposed 2 bet, next time you suspend start your unopposed bet at 3 and so forth. You have to win it sooner or later. (similar to Basic S40) That is all there is to ADN.

Shoe Starts:

If you already know you are going to play ADN, you can start right at play 1 with 1 vs 1. Because of the mandatory 2 you will always have 2 vs 2 at your 2nd play so you still have no table bet. Your 3rd play will always be 3 vs 1 giving you a first table bet of 2. But you can always simply make that first table bet a 1 unit bet if you want to since that is what you are used to.

Edited August 21, 2011 by Guest

[davelevad]

(Reposting this shoe here as an example of ADNet; it's the same one in the thread

Example in Seminar of "Killer Shoe", Hollywood Penn National, PA, 8/12/11)

Following is the "killer shoe" that Ellis & the group encountered on Friday night at Hollywood Penn National, PA, before the seminar.

First thing Saturday morning at the seminar, Ellis re-played the shoe using ADNet, which is transcribed below.

One difference between the shoe below and the one Ellis did in the seminar (which is recorded on the video, for example): at hand 50, Ellis in the seminar accidentally made the red progression as a 2 unit under B, and the blue progression as a 1 unit under P. The correct placement should have been the red progression as a 2 unit under P, and the blue progression as a 1 unit under B. Subsequently after hand 50, the red & blue progs in the shoe below differs from the one Ellis did in the seminar, but interestingly enough, a few more hands past hand 50, the blue & red sides simply swapped sides with the same difference between the two, so that the same bet placements were being made in the same amounts anyway. In terms of scores, both came out to be nearly identical for the remainder of the shoe. The final score in both came out to be the same: +15u.

Also, in the below example, Ellis continued the prog up to 6, rather than suspending it, which only happened once toward the very end. And, he dropped back down to a 1u bet after a win, rather than using D2.

[Guest]

Examples:

I'm going to play the same example 3 ways:

1. Suspend after losing the 5

2. Suspend after losing the 123 with an unopposed 121212

3. Suspend after losing the 123 but flat bet at 2 unopposed instead of 121212

Here is a 13 play example with a lot of 2s so you can see their precise effect on your score.

P52222

BTW, I would be very thankful if somebody would draw up these 3 samples and post them. My scanner is still out. Note my red prog color coding:

OK, I'm starting all 3 at play 1 with 1v1 and play 2 with 2v2 and play 3 with 3v1

4. 2v1

5. 2v1

6. 2v1

7. 3v2

Up until play 7 all 3 examples are exactly the same

Now, Example 1:

8. 1v4

9. 2v5

10 0v2

11 0v2

12 2v0

13 2v0 Score = +4

2nd example:

8. 1v0

9. 2v0

10 0v1

11 0v2

12 1v0

13 2v0 Score = +11

3rd Example:

8. 2v0

9. 2v0

10 0v2

11 0v2

12 2v0

13 2v0 score = +14

OK, lets save Notes for the next post.

[jerryczy]

Hi,Ellis. I have a question about this rule "Low 2s suspend after losing the 5".

The lossing prog can be 12345 (PL=5);2345(PL=4);345(PL=3). So what ever the PL is, we all suspend at 5, right?

[davelevad]

Here are the ADNet example shoes in Ellis' last post:

[Guest]

Here are the scores starting at play3 for all 3 examples:

1 23432-1-4-2024 worst position = -4

22343235689 11 worst position = +2

23432468 10 12 14 worst position = +2

So you can see that slight changes in the rules to compensate for Hi or Lo 2s can make a huge difference in the score and decrease risk at the same time.

Also, flat betting at 2 in TT runs can help a lot. I've seen TT runs go for as many as 22 plays.

One thing I forgot. When you start at Play 1, you don't know if play 1 was an Opposite or Repeat so simply always go Across for play 2. It really makes no difference but this rule at least gets us all playing the same way.

The 212s:

Very, very important:

The most common pattern in Baccarat after straight and ZZ runs is the 2121212 or 1212121 patterns. They are TWICE as common as the TTs.

With ADN whenever you are in a 212 run forget your 2s count and ALWAYS run your progs all the way to 5. You'll be glad you did!

Note: ADN breaks even in the 212s while ALL the other 3 NOR systems beat the hell out of the 212s. So if you are seeing a lot of 212s pick any NOR System EXCEPT ADN.

A system CAN'T win if it loses to the 212s. That was part of how we selected the NOR Systems.

BTW, RDN loses to the 212s. Damn amateurs, I'm surrounded by amateurs. Ha!

[Guest]

Ok, thanks Dave! I knew you'd come through.

I was waiting for these pictures to make one more point.

Look at the first Example play#9. In reality, we would never make that 5 entry. It would be a 0 entry increasing our score in that sample to +7.

Why? Play 8 confirms the first 2. That makes one 2 in 7 plays. THAT is already high 2s. Normal is one 2 in 8 plays. Therefore we suspend after 3 losing bets. We didn't know that when we made the 4 entry. BUT We sure knew it BEFORE the 5 entry so the 5 entry should be 0.

Now, you guys who played ADN before: Don't you think this is a much smarter way to play it???

Edited August 21, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Hi,Ellis. I have a question about this rule "Low 2s suspend after losing the 5".

The lossing prog can be 12345 (PL=5);2345(PL=4);345(PL=3). So what ever the PL is, we all suspend at 5, right?

That's exactly right Jerry!

[Guest]

(Reposting this shoe here as an example of ADNet; it's the same one in the thread

Example in Seminar of "Killer Shoe", Hollywood Penn National, PA, 8/12/11)

Following is the "killer shoe" that Ellis & the group encountered on Friday night at Hollywood Penn National, PA, before the seminar.

First thing Saturday morning at the seminar, Ellis re-played the shoe using ADNet, which is transcribed below.

One difference between the shoe below and the one Ellis did in the seminar (which is recorded on the video, for example): at hand 50, Ellis in the seminar accidentally made the red progression as a 2 unit under B, and the blue progression as a 1 unit under P. The correct placement should have been the red progression as a 2 unit under P, and the blue progression as a 1 unit under B. Subsequently after hand 50, the red & blue progs in the shoe below differs from the one Ellis did in the seminar, but interestingly enough, a few more hands past hand 50, the blue & red sides simply swapped sides with the same difference between the two, so that the same bet placements were being made in the same amounts anyway. In terms of scores, both came out to be nearly identical for the remainder of the shoe. The final score in both came out to be the same: +15u.

Also, in the below example, Ellis continued the prog up to 6, rather than suspending it, which only happened once toward the very end. And, he dropped back down to a 1u bet after a win, rather than using D2.

Right, See, this is low 2s, only 4 in the whole shoe. That's an automatic win for ADN. Also I went to 1 after a winning 5 when I played this shoe. That's a little more conservative and not a bad idea. I also went to a 6 against a 2 because that is still 4 Hi and it was late in the shoe and I could easily make that bet on casino's money. I also played it with 5 max entry at the sem and it scored +9 Which makes you wonder if it was worth the risk to go to a 6 entry.

[Guest]

(Reposting this shoe here as an example of ADNet; it's the same one in the thread

Example in Seminar of "Killer Shoe", Hollywood Penn National, PA, 8/12/11)

Following is the "killer shoe" that Ellis & the group encountered on Friday night at Hollywood Penn National, PA, before the seminar.

First thing Saturday morning at the seminar, Ellis re-played the shoe using ADNet, which is transcribed below.

One difference between the shoe below and the one Ellis did in the seminar (which is recorded on the video, for example): at hand 50, Ellis in the seminar accidentally made the red progression as a 2 unit under B, and the blue progression as a 1 unit under P. The correct placement should have been the red progression as a 2 unit under P, and the blue progression as a 1 unit under B. Subsequently after hand 50, the red & blue progs in the shoe below differs from the one Ellis did in the seminar, but interestingly enough, a few more hands past hand 50, the blue & red sides simply swapped sides with the same difference between the two, so that the same bet placements were being made in the same amounts anyway. In terms of scores, both came out to be nearly identical for the remainder of the shoe. The final score in both came out to be the same: +15u.

Also, in the below example, Ellis continued the prog up to 6, rather than suspending it, which only happened once toward the very end. And, he dropped back down to a 1u bet after a win, rather than using D2.

Ha, I never realized it before but when you try to do a giant shoe on a wall you tend to get discomboberated. I noticed Paul (Zebra) had the same problem. I'm sure it wasn't the wine! No, of course not!

Edited August 21, 2011 by Guest

[davelevad]

Thanks, Ellis,

Some questions regarding system selection, perhaps anticipating topics in your future postings:

- In terms of deciding whether or not to use ADNet in the first place, do I make that decision after noticing what kinds of shoes are coming out at the casino that session, and if they are rather random without a consistent bias, then use ADNet as my default play?

- Of the 4 systems in NOR (OBT4L, S40, F2/3, ADNet), if you were having to play completely blindly without any benefit of casino/table selection, which one would you use to start, that is, which is the "safest" choice overall?

(I know that in the seminar, you gave a section regarding system selection, that you cue off the first 4 hands. I tried that at Horseshoe the other night - report here - and the first 4 hands seemed to suggest chop (211), as well as other table selection factors pointing to chop, but then immediately afterward, the shoe started streaking, so I dug myself into a big hole with S40 right away within the first few bets. Perhaps I was simply unlucky in that instance, but I wanted to ask whether you think simply starting with ADNet is a safer way to start a shoe, as a standard default system, to help cover all the bases and set me up in a good position to handle the rest of the shoe.)

- One of the real-time problems I'm noticing during play is the tendency to switch systems whenever I encounter rough patches where my score is dropping or going nowhere. Sometimes switching helps, but sometimes it doesn't - it's almost like I'm just as lucky to choose the right system as I am to choose the right side to bet. For example, in the Hollywood "killer shoe" example, you played it through in its entirety in ADNet for illustration purposes, but in live play, I'm pretty sure you would have changed to a different system when your score started to drop in the rough patches. Well, at least I would have; for example, once I noticed the 2s coming out, I probably would've switched to OTB4L, or after the long streaks, F2/3, etc. So, the question is, what justifies changing to a different system, or is it just better to stick it out to the end?

[d0ma1n]

Ellis,

Great sharing as always. Hope you are doing well there !

Nice seminar and can't wait for the video.

I just applied ADN to a Live shoe, and couple of observation.

Beside the nemesis 212, is there any other dislike of ADN. I got hit to -10u very fast by 231 ( Shoe B1143231131 ) as I enter the shoe at play #11. Maybe you can advice.

Full Shoe

P1143231131

P1124114114

B311151

I have a downswing of -16u, but amazingly ADN can strike back and end at +7u ( 23u swing !! )

And I see that applying ADN, is like playing TBL. What is the difference ?

The only difference is looking at 2s (high or low), and adjust the prog accordingly

Cheers,

d0ma1n

[Guest]

Ellis,

Great sharing as always. Hope you are doing well there !

Nice seminar and can't wait for the video.

I just applied ADN to a Live shoe, and couple of observation.

Beside the nemesis 212, is there any other dislike of ADN. I got hit to -10u very fast by 231 ( Shoe B1143231131 ) as I enter the shoe at play #11. Maybe you can advice.

Full Shoe

P1143231131

P1124114114

B311151

I have a downswing of -16u, but amazingly ADN can strike back and end at +7u ( 23u swing !! )

And I see that applying ADN, is like playing TBL. What is the difference ?

The only difference is looking at 2s (high or low), and adjust the prog accordingly

Cheers,

d0ma1n

Thanks d0main, you cleared up a couple points for me. Yes I got the high 2s right but in low 2s we Are going to have to go to the 6 entry as I did in the seminar. I didn't see this before because we always suspended after 3 losing bets regardless of 2s. The losing pattern with 5 max entry actually occurs one number sooner than the 3 you highlighted. It's the 323 because that pattern contains a 222. But a 6 entry is of little consequence because we can still play 4 Hi.

Also pointed out is we need to always follow a winning 5 or 6 with 1 to avoid the 345 doldrums caused by your rare 4114114 pattern in the 2nd col. If we don't do that your shoe scores +17 but if we go back to 1 after a winning 5 or 6 your shoe scores +22, down from +23 which is quite amazing given our low avg. bet size (1.5) in a shoe only 2.5 columns long and a highest bet of only 4. This indicates we could easily hit +30 in a full length shoe - not that we should try.

Yes, both ADN and TBL like both straight and ZZ runs but the similarity pretty much ends there. ADN wins every bet in the very common TTs while TBL loses every bet. Your shoe had no TT runs so TBL gets lucky and scores +19 with the same 123456 1 prog. But you score +19 betting 103 units. Not bad but ADN scores+22 betting only 79 units due to the advantage of net betting. That is a huge difference in Player Advantage. Also, TBL gets to a 6 Hi bet while ADN only gets to 4. Another huge advantage. See the difference now. BUT, even aside from the far superior ADN performance you simply can't win at Baccarat with a system that loses to the TTs. They are far too common. Nor can you say well I'll just stop betting in the TTs because chances are 50/50 you would have won that next bet. If all that doesn't convince you, condider this: TBL has been around for 400 years but it hasn't made anyone any money yet.

Now we have tried net betting TBL vs OTBL but that is just another mechanical system that eventually breaks even. It kills your advantage on runs of all 3 types.

However, this shows you are thinking and asking the right questions. THAT is the important thing.

I'll go back to the rules and make that 6 entry and back to 1 on a winning 5 or 6 changes and you can claim credit for that. Hang in there dOmain, you are doing fine and thanks for helping us out!

Try it again with those 2 changes and you'll see you score +22 with a worst position of -3.

Edited August 21, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Thanks, Ellis,

Some questions regarding system selection, perhaps anticipating topics in your future postings:

- In terms of deciding whether or not to use ADNet in the first place, do I make that decision after noticing what kinds of shoes are coming out at the casino that session, and if they are rather random without a consistent bias, then use ADNet as my default play?

Yes, absolutely then and ONLY then. And it should be quite rare at most casinos with ample tables.

- Of the 4 systems in NOR (OBT4L, S40, F2/3, ADNet), if you were having to play completely blindly without any benefit of casino/table selection, which one would you use to start, that is, which is the "safest" choice overall?

Well of course first of all you should never and would never do that so we are strictly talking hypothetically.

But the answer is OTB4L for two reasons: Over the last several years shoes indicate OTB4L more and more and I end up playing it almost as much as the others combined. I suspect that this is because casinos get what they want one way or another and they want OTB4L shoes because they do best with them.

The other reason is that while OTB4L does not like runs, it does a good job protecting itself from runs while destroying the rest of the shoe. You can almost always make it work through good Mode selection once you are totally fluid with it. It the shoe is not OTB4L this becomes obvious right away.

(I know that in the seminar, you gave a section regarding system selection, that you cue off the first 4 hands. I tried that at Horseshoe the other night - report here - and the first 4 hands seemed to suggest chop (211), as well as other table selection factors pointing to chop, but then immediately afterward, the shoe started streaking, so I dug myself into a big hole with S40 right away within the first few bets. Perhaps I was simply unlucky in that instance, but I wanted to ask whether you think simply starting with ADNet is a safer way to start a shoe, as a standard default system, to help cover all the bases and set me up in a good position to handle the rest of the shoe.)

Well, at the seminar my point was that you CAN start based to the first 4 plays if they don't contain a 3 - not so much that you should. As you know, I'm very big on table canvassing and selection. I'm usually only using the initial plays for confirmation of my table selection already conducted. And I almost always start at a casino mid shoe on the first table I play. This way I have 20 to 40 plays to determine system and mode. I usually already know what system and mode I'm going to play before I even sit down.

I think that Friday night before the seminar was an excellent example of what can happen when there is no table selection possible. It is like playing the internet. You have 2 strikes against you before you start. In our case it was more like 3 strikes. I shouldn't have played at all for the same reason I don't play the internet.

ADN is not a great starting system. Yes it bets less esp. if you start with 1 instead of 2. But we already have that covered with early flat betting. But ADN has problems with 2s and 2s are the second most common event. You are almost bound to get a 2 very early. OTB4L - 2s are its favorite thing but it also likes single 1s and 3s. FAR more shos start with 1's and 2s and 3s than with 4 or mores - well except for that Friday night. But look at the 6 shoes we played after that. Go with the numbers.

S40 is one end of the spectrum and F is the other. OTB4L is the middle of the road. ADN is a last resort. We certainly don't want to favor a system that doesn't like 2's.

- One of the real-time problems I'm noticing during play is the tendency to switch systems whenever I encounter rough patches where my score is dropping or going nowhere. Sometimes switching helps, but sometimes it doesn't - it's almost like I'm just as lucky to choose the right system as I am to choose the right side to bet. For example, in the Hollywood "killer shoe" example, you played it through in its entirety in ADNet for illustration purposes, but in live play, I'm pretty sure you would have changed to a different system when your score started to drop in the rough patches. Well, at least I would have; for example, once I noticed the 2s coming out, I probably would've switched to OTB4L, or after the long streaks, F2/3, etc. So, the question is, what justifies changing to a different system, or is it just better to stick it out to the end?

What you say makes sense and that is what happens some nights. In the casino I played F straight through which turned out to be the best of the 3 choices. I never hit -8 but at least it would have put me out of my misery and let me go look for warmth. That is NOT how you play. You don't sit there and struggle. You quit.

We aren't heroes. Heroes are losers. We are those quiet cowards slipping around under the radar looking for situations we can take advantage of. We are casino predators.

[Guest]

Dave, consider the 4 games in AC. Did we win them because we played well and heroically. Hell no. We won because we found them.

[davelevad]

Dave, consider the 4 games in AC. Did we win them because we played well and heroically. Hell no. We won because we found them.

Yes, I was there, LOL. I'm now trying to find them consistently and accurately here. To me, that's much more important than the mechanics of the systems, because I know the systems themselves are at best break-even (minus house edge) in the long run unless I know when and where to use them.

Thanks much for your answers. Also, I found a lot more of what you wrote about system selection tips in the other threads here in the past, so I'm reading up on those.

[TangNangDoaHoa]

Hello everyone! i've been around in BTC quite awhile but haven't seen this ADN system, can one teach me about this rule? i look at the sample game but then got confused, bet right down after Opp and Across after a repeat? sound exactly like OTBL? but i doesn't look like in the sample shoe, can someone get me clear thanks

[davelevad]

Hello everyone! i've been around in BTC quite awhile but haven't seen this ADN system, can one teach me about this rule? i look at the sample game but then got confused, bet right down after Opp and Across after a repeat? sound exactly like OTBL? but i doesn't look like in the sample shoe, can someone get me clear thanks

The rule is for each side of the progression.

If the last decision was an opposite ("ACROSS", for example, Banker followed Player), then go DOWN for each progression.

If the last decision was a repeat ("DOWN", for example, Banker followed Banker), then go ACROSS for each progression.

For example, in the Hollywood Penn example, notice hand 5-6 is a Player repeat (DOWN), so in hand 6-7, the red progression goes ACROSS from P to B, and the black prog goes ACROSS from B to P.

Notice in hand 6-7, there is an opposite from P to B (ACROSS), so in hand 7-8, the red prog goes DOWN from B to B, and the black prog goes DOWN from P to P.

... etc ...