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SAP Live Shoes Replay


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I'm learning to use the SAP system according to PapaJoe's latest rules which he posted at the following post.

Following are the shoes I replay using those SAP rules.

I had originally played these shoes live, using table selection procedures. I replay them trying not to look ahead, trying to play each game as if I were playing forward in real time.

If I had entered mid-shoe during live play, I don't start betting in the replay until at least the hand I had originally started betting live.

For the SAP count, I ignore the first event unless it is 4+.

Feel free to comment, ask questions, offer tips for improvement, and add your own shoes.

Thanks.

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Dave,

That's a very good first use of SAP. Congratulations! I played your shoe #2, and it did a bit better.

Here is how I played shoe #2:

One thing... it is good to wait until you have 3 Sap columns with a number before you table bet. This does not mean that if you see a run of 4 (str. or zz) that you have to wait. You can always risk 1 unit flat bet to see if you can catch a good run. Also It's a more reliable SAP signal if you have good seperation between the SAP numbers, especially the 1s and 2s. I usually don't bet if there is only a 1 point spread between the 1s and 2s, a spread of 2 or more is much better.

daves1.jpg

I might have got out at hand 38 because it was the 2nd time I had reached my high score of 10. That's always an option. I played it out juse to show the completion using New SAP.

PJ

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Dave,

That's a very good first use of SAP. Congratulations! I played your shoe #2, and it did a bit better.

Here is how I played shoe #2:

One thing... it is good to wait until you have 3 Sap columns with a number before you table bet. This does not mean that if you see a run of 4 (str. or zz) that you have to wait. You can always risk 1 unit flat bet to see if you can catch a good run. Also It's a more reliable SAP signal if you have good seperation between the SAP numbers, especially the 1s and 2s. I usually don't bet if there is only one a point spread between the 1s and 2s, a spread of 2 or more is much better.

I might have got out at hand 38 because it was the 2nd time I had reached my high score of 10. That's always an option. I played it out juse to show the completion using New SAP.

PJ

Thanks much, PJ - great tips!

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Original live shoe: Session 4, Shoe 1, Horseshoe IN, 08/26/11, new cards, around 12 PM.

Original play post. (Original Net = -8.30u, stopped out).

(I had started at hand 26 in live play, so I don't start betting in the replay until hand 26, even though SAP would've signaled to start OTB4L much sooner probably around hands 12-15. In live play, I didn't see the board until around hand 23).

SAP replay below: (SAP Net = +4.70u)

2s60plj.png

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Dave,

I replayed your Horseshoe 08/29/11 shoe #1. First let me say that it's always easier to replay a shoe than it is to play it live. Now here is the thing about SAP. SAP will usually guide you to the right mode and the more you use SAP the better you will become at deciphering the SAP events and appropriate mode selections. Some of the other "SAPPERS" on the forum might play it slightly differently, but I think my play is pretty close to right.

One note: When 1s are high and 2s are low, you could use the F2/F3 series, or TB4L. Unless 2s are very low, I usually default to TB4L. Just my way of looking at things. I know Ellis doesn't promote the use of TB4L anymore, but I sort of like it.

Anyway, take a look and I hope the example helps.

daves2.jpg

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For the 8 shoes I played at Horseshoe between 08/18/11-08/30/11:

Original Live Total Net: -12.35u

SAP Replays Total Net: +5.30u

The SAP Replays, of course, were done in the comfort of home & quiet, so under casino conditions, I probably would've done worse. Also, I was replaying rather mechanically, strictly by SAP rules, so I'm sure the more experienced SAP players such as PapaJoe would've done much better. Also, in the shoes I began mid-shoe in the original live play, I start at the same hand in the replays to be consistent. I notice that if I had started "blindly" from the beginning, I would've done better than starting in the middle.

This exercise made me realize something about SAP ... It seems to over-ride table selection. If you're going to play a method based on what the SAP is saying, it seems like it doesn't matter why you originally chose that table in the first place. You might as well have just picked any table and camped there for the whole day, playing shoe after shoe. The spirit of SAP is that you're going with the flow of the event frequencies of the shoe itself as a closed system. So, does that mean I don't need table selection when playing SAP? After all, if my table selection was for one bias, but the SAP is saying do something differently, what was my table selection's purpose in the first place? Which one overrides the other?

But, if we can use SAP alone without table selection, then we're playing baccarat from the standpoint of a fair, random game, which we already agreed can't do better than always betting Banker in the long run. (I know that if I program SAP and run in a long term simulation on it over a data set with a normal random distribution, the bottom line will be the standard negative expectancies of any other mechanical method.)

So, something tells me SAP by itself still won't give me the kind of edge I need to consistently win at Horseshoe.

What am I missing? :confused:

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Dave,

I replayed your Horseshoe 08/29/11 shoe #1. First let me say that it's always easier to replay a shoe than it is to play it live. Now here is the thing about SAP. SAP will usually guide you to the right mode and the more you use SAP the better you will become at deciphering the SAP events and appropriate mode selections. Some of the other "SAPPERS" on the forum might play it slightly differently, but I think my play is pretty close to right.

One note: When 1s are high and 2s are low, you could use the F2/F3 series, or TB4L. Unless 2s are very low, I usually default to TB4L. Just my way of looking at things. I know Ellis doesn't promote the use of TB4L anymore, but I sort of like it.

Anyway, take a look and I hope the example helps.

Thank you, PapaJoe - I really and always appreciate how helpful you are!

Will study carefully.

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But, if we can use SAP alone without table selection, then we're playing baccarat from the standpoint of a fair, random game, which we already agreed can't do better than always betting Banker in the long run. (I know that if I program SAP and run in a long term simulation on it over a data set with a normal random distribution, the bottom line will be the standard negative expectancies of any other mechanical method.)

I agree Dave, about computer sims of thousands of hands dealt. Everything will eventually be random, and betting Banker only will give a very slight edge. It's for sure mechanical systems just can't win in the long run. WHO CARES? I'm looking at the short run. That's where SAP can help.

I'm looking at that one shoe I'm playing, and I'm only concerned with what it's putting out. In that one shoe, there will be Non-Random events and that's what I'm looking to exploit. It's amazing that such a simple game as baccarat can be so very confusing. Table selection is as important as Ellis says it is. I always try to play at a table that shows a bias, that's when I win the most. But the thing about SAP is it can keep you out of a lot of trouble when table selection isn't working and the shoe turns sour. In Tunica they have only 3 bacc tables and usually only 2 are open, so I usually have to go with what is there. I'm more focused on the one shoe I'm playing.

Whether the casino orchestrates them, or the baccarat gods decree them, shoes from hell are something we all have to deal with. SAP just seems to keep you headed in the right direction and it keeps you out of a LOT of trouble. So more often than not, you can win a unit or 2 even in those tuff shoes, and when you lose it's usually a small loss.

One thing I have always said is "You can't lose money sitting on your hands". If the SAP signal is not clear (which would indicate a shoe from hell perhaps) just don't bet until you see a good signal with good event count separation. Experience will guide you. Keep a tight stop loss and let SAP help you win, and even with SAP don't forget the most important question you can ask yourself. What mode would be winning this shoe right here and now. That's the power of SAP. It can help you answer that question.

PJ

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For Ellis, PapaJoe, and other SAPPERs ...

I suppose the essential question I'm asking is ...

Considering these examples of live shoes from Horseshoe, how confident are you that an approach such as SAP can truly yield a long term, positive advantage over the kinds of shoes they're producing?

(I am in the realm of "long term" the moment I intend to go back to the casino for the next session. A synonym would be "consistent.")

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For Ellis, PapaJoe, and other SAPPERs ...

I suppose the essential question I'm asking is ...

Considering these examples of live shoes from Horseshoe, how confident are you that an approach such as SAP can truly yield a long term, positive advantage over the kinds of shoes they're producing?

(I am in the realm of "long term" the moment I intend to go back to the casino for the next session. A synonym would be "consistent.")

Now THAT'S the big question isn't it? I can only speak for myself as a player. I always consider SAP and the confidence it gives me as a tool. It helps me make my betting decision. Lately I have been experimenting with no score card... just using the tote board. Well SAP plays a critical part in my decision making. I have come to believe that it is best not to play a certain system because systems require strict rules (Even New SAP has pretty firm rules although it does allow some player discretion) and I have come to realize that it is better (for me) to just observe the shoe as it unfolds and play what would be winning and if I can't tell what would be winning, don't bet.

The real bottom line is how comfortable is SAP for you as a player. It's a tool or as Ellis would agree, "another arrow in your quiver". I guess a lot just depends on the experience level of the player.

(I am in the realm of "long term" the moment I intend to go back to the casino for the next session. A synonym would be "consistent.")

I have found SAP to be very consistant.

PJ

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put it another way.

say you allocate yourself 8 units a shoe, and have 40 units bank roll.

Do you believe you can lose all 40 units, betting 1 unit 2 unit max?

you would effectively have to lose at a bare minimum of 20 hands up to 40 hands.

1/2^20 = 0.000000953674316 chance of losing all 20 hands.

You attempt to detect any notifiable bias. exploit and run!!!

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Dave,

I replayed your Horseshoe 08/29/11 shoe #1. First let me say that it's always easier to replay a shoe than it is to play it live. Now here is the thing about SAP. SAP will usually guide you to the right mode and the more you use SAP the better you will become at deciphering the SAP events and appropriate mode selections. Some of the other "SAPPERS" on the forum might play it slightly differently, but I think my play is pretty close to right.

One note: When 1s are high and 2s are low, you could use the F2/F3 series, or TB4L. Unless 2s are very low, I usually default to TB4L. Just my way of looking at things. I know Ellis doesn't promote the use of TB4L anymore, but I sort of like it.

Anyway, take a look and I hope the example helps.

daves2.jpg

Well, I hate to interupt but I have to in this case. I happened to look in at this one shoe. Guys, Factory preshuffled is tough because we lose one of our main 5 advantages - the stability of new cards. But they aren't the end of the world. OLd cards are old cards and how they started out makes no difference.

We never want to put all our eggs in one basket. One of the advantages of NOR is it has 3 baskets. But we have discussed exploit shoes before. What is an exploit shoe? It is a shoe so strong in direction that it is entirely outside the random envelope. When we become involved with such a shoe it is our DUTY to drop everything and exploit it in my opinion. We need that +30 shoe now and then because it has a huge effect on our overall avg. Gift shoes happen and they happen a lot.

Beginning players should always be doing an OR count. Experienced players should at least be jotting the OR totals in at the bottom of each col. of 20. Sure, much of the time it is a waste of time because you end up using other indicators. But every now and then OR outdistances all other indicators including SAP.

The avg. OR count spread (the difference between the highest + count and lowest - count) is 8 in a full shoe or about 3 per col. Above that we call it super chop or super streak. Super shoes are made to be exploited.

This shoe the OR count spread marches steadily up to 18 and you are only a little over half way through the shoe. The actual OR count is +17. What does that mean? That at play 48, or whatever it was, there have already been 17 more opposites than repeats. But this was obvious back at play 10.

Fine, how to we exploit it? We drop everything, raise our base bet from 1 to 2 and bet opposites. If you are a bit chicken, fine, play S40-4. U1D2 B2 M3.

I didn't play it out but I can tell at a glance that it's going to hit +30 or thereabouts. This is the kind of thing that should jump out at you from a tote board 2 isles away.

I'll tell you one thing! Whatever color those cards were, I am also going to be at that table for the start of the next shoe that color. Shoes that choppy don't change.

Hey, it might be the difference between a +15 day and a +50 day. I would also check the other shoe color. But a table like that? I've found a home.

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OK, for the hell of it I played it out from the beginning the way I said. It hits +50 at play 48 and your highest bet is 5.

Gentlemen, I rest my case!

Dave, what would THAT do to your average???

Look guys, I realize I have more experience than some. But that one should jump out and bite you on the nose!

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Dave, you've probably not had the time to notice but I put up a rather nice post at ImSpirit on how the full time pro should conduct himself going about his business. Been there, done that, as I think you'll see.

I felt I owed that to the forum after the waste of time clash with Archer. And BTW Jim is Archer. I can tell for sure by the phrasiology and the same misspelled words. His writing has an unmistakable signature to it. Don't know or care how he does it, but I know Archer. He pulled the same exact stunts at BTC.

Strangely, he was one of my best and most supportive NBJ BJ students. But then he fell for the card counting scam. Those losses changed the man and made him distrustful of everyone. I have never played with him but he knows me from the NBJ training videos. Actually, I haven't changed much since then.

Although I did have front teeth then. People ask me why I don't get them fixed? Because in Arkansas, I fit right in!

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OK, for the hell of it I played it out from the beginning the way I said. It hits +50 at play 48 and your highest bet is 5.

Gentlemen, I rest my case!

Dave, what would THAT do to your average???

Look guys, I realize I have more experience than some. But that one should jump out and bite you on the nose!

Ellis,

Thanks much for your encouragement.

Allow me to comment about that 08/29/11 Shoe 1. The original way I played it was posted in the following post at this link (http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6556&p=28797#post28797).

Yes, when I saw the board, I could tell just by looking at it, it was an S40 shoe. (I suppose you'd say I was doing an "intuitive" OR count.) It was so obvious that I did what I normally don't do - that is, buy in and bet over-the-shoulder (behind a very irritated seated player, I might add.)

As luck/fate would have it, when I began betting, I hit a 4-in-a-row immediately, and since I was using a 1234 (having supreme confidence in what I had learned from you), I lost 4 iar right off the bat, losing -10u immediately, which is technically past the usual -8u SL. So, I literally did do what you urged in the other post: I dropped everything and (tried to) exploit the shoe, since I felt it was my obligation to do so.

Fortunately, in this shoe, I decided to press on, and starting back at 1u, I used regular S40 to crawl my way back to break-even +1u by the shoe's end. (Now, had I used U1D2M2, of course, I would've ended much better, but losing 4 iar right off the bat doesn't exactly inspire confidence to do so.)

Yes, in hindsight, that 08/29/11 Shoe 1 appears to be a great S40 shoe. But in playing it forward live given what happened, it was not exactly a pleasant experience.

(Even replaying this shoe w/ SAP from my original entry point, the way I replayed it hit the SL using 2Hi. http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6575&p=28926#post28926)

I'm sure you're absolutely right - if you were to play at Horseshoe IN, you'd think you'd entered heaven itself - LOL. I'm sure it's just my lack of experience and ability, not knowing what to look for and how to exploit it, and low confidence that are making it so much more difficult for me. And a good dose of bad luck sprinkled on top.

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Dave, you've probably not had the time to notice but I put up a rather nice post at ImSpirit on how the full time pro should conduct himself going about his business. Been there, done that, as I think you'll see.

I felt I owed that to the forum after the waste of time clash with Archer. And BTW Jim is Archer. I can tell for sure by the phrasiology and the same misspelled words. His writing has an unmistakable signature to it. Don't know or care how he does it, but I know Archer. He pulled the same exact stunts at BTC.

Strangely, he was one of my best and most supportive NBJ BJ students. But then he fell for the card counting scam. Those losses changed the man and made him distrustful of everyone. I have never played with him but he knows me from the NBJ training videos. Actually, I haven't changed much since then.

Although I did have front teeth then. People ask me why I don't get them fixed? Because in Arkansas, I fit right in!

Thanks - Yes, I posted your great reply. Words of practical wisdom.

Archer did make more comments in other posts. Just go to the blog's main page (imspirit.wordpress.com) and scroll down a little, and notice on the right-hand-side column, there's a listing of "Your Feedback," which lists all of the recent replies readers have left at the site. Just click on links beside each author's icons to bring you to the appropriate comments.

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Thanks - Yes, I posted your great reply. Words of practical wisdom.

Archer did make more comments in other posts. Just go to the blog's main page (imspirit.wordpress.com) and scroll down a little, and notice on the right-hand-side column, there's a listing of "Your Feedback," which lists all of the recent replies readers have left at the site. Just click on links beside each author's icons to bring you to the appropriate comments.

Ug! Do I have to?

Archer has been known to carry on conversations with himself under multiple user names. That is one way to get people to agree with you. He also has at least one spy on our private forum who feeds him information. The guy is insane with envy and will argue against ANYTHING I say, even when I agree with him. He makes me feel sorry for Obama!

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