SAP Live Shoes Replay

[Guest]

Ellis,

Thanks much for your encouragement.

Allow me to comment about that 08/29/11 Shoe 1. The original way I played it was posted in the following post at this link (http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6556&p=28797#post28797).

Yes, when I saw the board, I could tell just by looking at it, it was an S40 shoe. (I suppose you'd say I was doing an "intuitive" OR count.) It was so obvious that I did what normally don't do - that is, buy in and bet over-the-shoulder (behind a very irritated seated player, I might add.)

As luck/fate would have it, when I began betting, I hit a 4-in-a-row immediately, and since I was using a 1234 (having supreme confidence in what I had learned from you), I lost 4 iar right off the bat, losing -10u immediately, which is technically past the usual -8u SL. So, I literally did do what you urged in the other post: I dropped everything and (tried to) exploit the shoe, since I felt it was my obligation to do so.

Fortunately, in this shoe, I decided to press on, and starting back at 1u, I used regular S40 to crawl my way back to break-even +1u by the shoe's end. (Now, had I used U1D2M2, of course, I would've ended much better, but losing 4 iar right off the bat doesn't exactly inspire confidence to do so.)

Yes, in hindsight, that 08/29/11 Shoe 1 appears to be a great S40 shoe. But in playing it forward live given what happened, it was not exactly a pleasant experience.

(Even replaying this shoe w/ SAP from my original entry point, the way I replayed it hit the SL using 2Hi. http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6575&p=28926#post28926)

I'm sure you're absolutely right - if you were to play at Horseshoe IN, you'd think you'd entered heaven itself - LOL. I'm sure it's just my lack of experience and ability, not knowing what to look for and how to exploit it, and low confidence that are making it so much more difficult for me. And a good dose of bad luck sprinkled on top.

Yeah, a lot of it has to do with the luck of exactly where you happen to enter. Sometimes a shoe is so choppy you feel foolish betting OTR so sometimes I simply don't bother. Eventually you develop a feel for runaway counts. I'm not one to wait around very long. I've just watched too many good shoes go by. Then when you finally DO decide to enter the shoe is due to change. I like to jump on what I see. If I'm wrong, that's what -8 is for. In reality it works out closer to -7. But a +50 makes up for a lot of -7s.

[Guest]

LOL - no, you don't ... zebra is doing a pretty good job himself.

Ha, Paul needs no help, but I gave him some anyway!

[kkriats]

Ellis,

Thanks much for your encouragement.

Allow me to comment about that 08/29/11 Shoe 1. The original way I played it was posted in the following post at this link (http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6556&p=28797#post28797).

Yes, when I saw the board, I could tell just by looking at it, it was an S40 shoe. (I suppose you'd say I was doing an "intuitive" OR count.) It was so obvious that I did what I normally don't do - that is, buy in and bet over-the-shoulder (behind a very irritated seated player, I might add.)

As luck/fate would have it, when I began betting, I hit a 4-in-a-row immediately, and since I was using a 1234 (having supreme confidence in what I had learned from you), I lost 4 iar right off the bat, losing -10u immediately, which is technically past the usual -8u SL. So, I literally did do what you urged in the other post: I dropped everything and (tried to) exploit the shoe, since I felt it was my obligation to do so.

Fortunately, in this shoe, I decided to press on, and starting back at 1u, I used regular S40 to crawl my way back to break-even +1u by the shoe's end. (Now, had I used U1D2M2, of course, I would've ended much better, but losing 4 iar right off the bat doesn't exactly inspire confidence to do so.)

Yes, in hindsight, that 08/29/11 Shoe 1 appears to be a great S40 shoe. But in playing it forward live given what happened, it was not exactly a pleasant experience.

(Even replaying this shoe w/ SAP from my original entry point, the way I replayed it hit the SL using 2Hi. http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6575&p=28926#post28926)

I'm sure you're absolutely right - if you were to play at Horseshoe IN, you'd think you'd entered heaven itself - LOL. I'm sure it's just my lack of experience and ability, not knowing what to look for and how to exploit it, and low confidence that are making it so much more difficult for me. And a good dose of bad luck sprinkled on top.

Hi Dave

You are making a great work in this forum and all of us have to thank you.

Regarding your shoe 1 on 08/29/2001 I think it is a great shoe for S40 w/o unpleasent surprises. I replayed the shoe keeping as a guide the O/R count and the 3s & 4s count as it is written in the manual. It was ended + 16 w/o raise the unit size. On the other hand the discussion about having the shoe in front of you already played so you know a priori what to do is not valid in this case becuse the O/R count never went bellow +5.

kkriat[ATTACH]2178[/ATTACH]

[ECD]

Nice KK,

System 40 all the way! I like that prog with no M2. Keeps the bets lower.

[B@cc@r@t]

I attended the seminar in PA but I didn't quiet improved my game yet. I only get better playing BAC after learning the new SAP PapaJoe posted.

Thank you so much PapaJoe. I have learned so much from your threads. Paul said the right thing about SAP. It's a tool to guide NOR adjusting to the right mode.

[Guest]

I attended the seminar in PA but I didn't quiet improved my game yet. I only get better playing BAC after learning the new SAP PapaJoe posted.

Thank you so much PapaJoe. I have learned so much from your threads. Paul said the right thing about SAP. It's a tool to guide NOR adjusting to the right mode.

Right, SAP is the ultimate way to precisely follow every trend in a shoe. For instance if you are playing OTB4L because there are a lot of 3s, Straight NOR will be betting against the 3rd circle of every 3. But SAP will not only be ON the 3rd circle, it wins the next bet as well - the opposite after the 3. And it will then eliminate half of the problem caused by straight runs.

I'm thinking the NOR manual should include an SAP final Chapter for those who want every advantage possible.

Sometimes it will play a shoe exactly like NOR and sometimes it will have key bets that are opposite to NOR. But when it bets opposite NOR it does so for good reason.

[ECD]

I attended the seminar in PA but I didn't quiet improved my game yet. I only get better playing BAC after learning the new SAP PapaJoe posted.

Thank you so much PapaJoe. I have learned so much from your threads. Paul said the right thing about SAP. It's a tool to guide NOR adjusting to the right mode.

Thanks B@CC@R@T,

SAP helps keep track of the Baccarat Math (the 50% rule) and it shows me what is most "out of whack" in a shoe. That is what I try to exploit. It is also important to just watch the shoe unfold and ask yourself the magic question "What would be winning right here and now in this shoe?" SAP helps tremendously with answering that question.

PJ

[B@cc@r@t]

I am still learning how to detect the right mode for right system based on SAP chart. Do you have any idea how to know the right mode when you obtain

the MC an LC of the shoe? I remember you mention about betting big at the right time in particular hand. Can you elaborate a little bit if possible?

[ECD]

Well here is my take on betting bigger at certain times. Yes, it’s based on the SAP principle along with basic Baccarat math:

Here's a breakdown of the math:

1s = 50%

2+s = 50%

2s = 25%

3s = 12.5%

4s = 6.25%

etc. etc.

As we know half (50%) of all events are 1’s. OK what about the other 50%? Those are 2+s (2 or mores) 2s, 3s, 4s and so on. Now this is where I really watch the relationship between the 1s and the 2 or mores. Are the 2+s higher that the 1s? Are most 1s going to 2+s? When 2+s are more prevalent (higher) or more recent than the 1s, when I see a 1, I bet big that it will go to 2+. I don’t care if it ends up as a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 etc. It’s that 2 hole that I bet heavier on. That’s because you can’t have a 3 or 4 or 5 etc until you first have a 2. Why not put the big bet there on the 2?

When the 1s and 2+ are close to each other +-50% 1s and +-50% 2+s, I don’t bet this way because there is no (1, 2+) disparity to exploit in this section of the shoe. I watch for the disparity and usually bet on the side of the high disparity. I’m not talking about B/P disparity; I’m talking about 1 / 2+s disparity.

If I lose 2 bets iar, I stop until I see the disparity widening between the 1s and 2+s. The OR count can also be of help. A minus OR count would favor repeats which is saying that 1s are going to 2+s.

If I win the 2 hole, I will consult the SAP count to decide if I should go for a 3 iar or a 4 iar etc, but those will be smaller bets. I like to use something like 4-5 units on the 2 hole and 1 unit on the 3s, 4s, etc.

I also pay close attention to MC and will bet for an opposite on the next hand if I see a strong MC event.

It’s usually pretty easy to see the relationship between the 1s and 2s just watching the tote and consulting my scorecard. BTW if 1s are more prevalent than 2+s, I will bet for the ones (opposites), but it will be a regular bet not a bigger bet. I think the 2 hole bet is the best chance to bet more because you win on everything except a 1. Remember you can’t have a 3 iar until you first have a 2 iar.

I know this is somewhat of a departure from our standard progressions, but I have been playing this way with great success and it just makes sense to me.

Thanks for asking,

PJ

Edited September 22, 2011 by ECD

[MVSeahog]

I think the 2 hole bet is the best chance to bet more because you win on everything except a 1. Remember you can’t have a 3 iar until you first have a 2 iar.

I know this is somewhat of a departure from our standard progressions, but I have been playing this way with great success and it just makes sense to me.

PJ

PJ,

It makes excellent sense to me too! Can't argue with the logic, either!

MVS

[ECD]

Hi MVS,

Glad you're back!

One thing I should mention. I also still watch the visual exploit signals like a 2-2-1 for OT and I might go OTR for a ZZ run of 4 (counted correctly) if 1s are high.. I also consider recent shoe history in my decisions. What I am stressing is that I am Betting more units on the 2 hole being filled. When it is being filled it's the best place to go for the jugular. One easy visual is if 2+s are coming in clusters and you see sporadic 1s. Just look back and see if you are seeing lots of 1s or not, if not look for the 2 hole to be filled.

PJ

Edited September 22, 2011 by ECD

[d0ma1n]

Hi Papajoe,

Very interesting concept. It means you don't bet on every hand, and only bet when you see 1s and 2+ more disparity is clear.

The way I interpret it (am only good learner when watching video or diagram), this way is like playing OTBL-0 (mode 0), as you will always bet heavily on the 2 hole, where you will place a heavy bet 4-5 units, then wait, then bet 4-5units (if 2s is MC), am I correct ?

If will be good if you have a shoe to explain this, and what is your unit size, betting prog, etc.

Cheers

[ECD]

It means you don't bet on every hand

That's right d0main, I don't bet every hand and I always wait when I lose 2 in a row.

this way is like playing OTBL-0 (mode 0), as you will always bet heavily on the 2 hole, where you will place a heavy bet 4-5 units,

Mostly correct. It is sort of like betting OT and betting heavy on the 2 hole. Now if the SAP info agrees, I will continue OTR after I win the 2 hole but I will bet smaller on the 3a 4s etc. Then when I lose there will be an opposite and if 1s are still low, I'll bet heavy for the 2 hole again. When I get a run of more than 2, then the run will end with an opposite and I'll lose that last small bet. Then I'm comparing the 1s and 2+s once again for a chance to bet the 2 hole. The best sceneario for this is when I am seeing clusters of multiple decisions and very few 1s. Like 232234221223. If I'm seeing something like 2112113121113, I proceed with caution and I don't make the big bet for the 2 hole, and as I mentioned earlier, I keep an eye out for the visual 2-2-1. That's a great trigger for OT and once again expecting the 2 hole to be filled.

If will be good if you have a shoe to explain this, and what is your unit size, betting prog, etc.

I'm using a highly modified score card (when I use one) and I don't want to confuse everyone by posting it. It encompasses some very different tracking and as I said sometimes I just use the tote board.

One thing I can say is since I have started this way of playing I have doubled my bankroll (buy in)15 times so far. This is at DoublinBet with play money. They don't accept USA betters, nevertheless, my account started at 500.00 and is now 7500.00 This is the best I have ever done at DoublinBet. My low bet is 5.00 and my big bets are 25.00 or more. Also sometimes if I lose the 2 hole bet I'll run a up as you lose prog just on the 2 hole like 25.00 40.00 60.00. This depends on my score at the time. My account has gone from 500 to 7500.00 in a period of about 10 days playing 31 shoes and winning 30.

I know this is not the right thread for this to continue, and I was just responding to some questions about using SAP in conjunction with NOR. Sorry if this is inappropriate Ellis. Feel free to delete it or move it to another thread.

Thanks,

PJ

Edited September 22, 2011 by ECD

[Guest]

It takes a bit of experience to know good shoes from bad shoes but basically the more a shoe is biased the better it is and the more you should be betting ON that bias. I consider this more a duty than an option. You are not always going to get good shoe days. We need to take advantage of good shoes when we get them to make up for the inevitable bad shoe days.

A shoe CAN'T be high in everything or low in everything. Whatever a shoe is high in, it MUST be low in other thing(s) to balance out. This is not an opinion. It is mathematical fact.

For instance: in the long run 3s equal 4+s (4 or mores). Take a shoe that is high in 3's (significantly more than one 3 every 16 plays). It might be averaging 3 3s every 16 plays. But then to make up for this the same shoe is low in 2s and 4 or mores. This ONE fact gives us TWO advantage bets. First we can bet a repeat under a 2, betting that 2 will go to 3. Say we win that bet. Great, now we can bet an opposite after the 3 betting the 3 won't go to 4. We are betting the 2 will go to 3 because the shoe is high in 3s. Then we are betting the 3 will stay 3 because the shoe is low in 4 or mores. Both are advantage bets IF we take advantage of them.

Betting ON biases is what winning Baccarat is all about. Most players will do the exact opposite. 4s are behind so they bet 4s will catch up. This is what that Macau training course teaches you to do. That is what casinos WANT you to do so that is what they teach and always have. That is why the avg Bac player loses at 26% rather than only the 1.25% dictated by commission.

Look at it this way: The casino wants you to lose. Sure, they are nice to you. They are paid to be nice to you. But they want you to lose. Note that when you win they are not so nice anymore. Therefore, whatever the casino wants you to do, do the opposite. THAT is what SAP teaches you to do and that is why I invented SAP. Sure, 4s will eventually catch up, maybe in ten shoe, maybe in 100. But they aren't going to catch up in this shoe you are playing right now. And that is what you bet!

It is the same in BJ. The casinos WANT you to card count. THAT is why they sell card counting books in their gift shops. They've had card counting completely beat for 25 years. They just don't want you to know that.

That Macau Training course? Guys that took that course are now complaining that they are losing at an even faster rate now playing exactly the way that course teaches you to play.

Look, there is only ONE way to beat Baccarat and that is to bet WITH biases rather than against them. THAT is what we teach here at BTC and that is WHY we teach that way. NOBODY else teaches what we teach. NOBODY!

In BJ card counting teaches you to bet high when the count is going up. Watch my lips - You don't win when the count is going up. You win when the count is going DOWN. THAT is when the tens are falling.

IN BJ, card counting teaches you how to lose FASTER.

In Bac, the casinos, including the Macau Training course, teach you how to lose faster.

See? THAT is why casinos hate us!

You've only got ONE friend and that is US, not the casinos. The casinos are out to beat you! WE AREN'T. WE are out to beat them. And I'm sorry but WE are the only ones. Most of you already know that because you have tried everyone else. But these new guys - they don't know who we are... yet.

PJ, you can say whatever you want to say wherever you want to say it. You won't get any argument from me. YOU are one of the good guys. I've got enough bad guys to deal with.

Edited September 22, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Somebody mentioned BK. I haven't heard anything from him in nearly a year now. No, I don't consider BK one of the bad guys. After all, most of his bets were the same bets that NOR or SAP would make. But then he had this "breakout" bet that bet directly against both NOR and SAP. I saw no mathematical basis for this bet and merely asked him what his mathematical basis was. He had none - at least none that he could explain. Not so much BK but others took this as some sort of unfair challenge. Look, it's a Baccarat forum. You are supposed to challenge bets. NOR and SAP are based on tens of thousands of shoes. BK's bets were based on 3 months of play wherein he only played a total of about 5 shoes. Before that he was playing something like F6 and the guys that tried it lost their shirts.

I don't mind guys coming up with ideas. That's what Bac forums are for. But I do mind when guys advocate a whole new way of playing based on 5 shoes. Especially when the same guy had another system he was advocating 3 months earlier that didn't work at all and, in fact, was ridiculous. Am I supposed to believe that the same guy is suddenly a pro when he can't even answer my questions.

Look, over 30 years I've seen the same behavior from hundreds of guys. None of those panned out either.

I do what I think after 30 years of experience is best for the whole forum. No, sorry, but I can't go along with making $1000 bets based on 5 shoes.

I don't know what BK is doing these days but I STRONGLY suspect that if he was winning, we would have heard about it.

BTC is probably about the oldest Bac forum on the internet but only the really oldest members know that BTC is not our first forum. Before BTC Keith and I had Winning Ways which WAS the oldest gaming forum on the internet.

We've had splinter groups form before - not a lot, but a few. None ever panned out, including Maverick. 5 or 6 here felt Maverick was the best thing since sex. Some did a lot of name calling when they left. Well if they want to follow someone with 1 year of experience and give up on someone with 30 years of experience, that is their prerogative. But when they called me names, they closed the door behind them, didn't they. They were all brand new guys that didn't know any better anyway. So what happened to them? Well just as I have said a million times, Maverick was a purely mechanical system. It can do no better than break even. That is what testing proved and the site shut down. And those guys that called me names? One in particular - They are out thousands of dollars now, aren't they. Don't surprise me none. There are lots of flash in the pans in this business. There always were and always will be. Dollar signs in their eyeballs. A few will follow them and then we never hear from them again. Watch my lips - there is only one way to beat this game and that is what we teach here. Biases! Whether BJ or Bac, that's all she wrote!

Edited September 22, 2011 by Guest

[joeystyle]

One thing I should mention. I also still watch the visual exploit signals like a 2-2-1 for OT and I might go OTR for a ZZ run of 4 (counted correctly) if 1s are high.. I also consider recent shoe history in my decisions. What I am stressing is that I am Betting more units on the 2 hole being filled. When it is being filled it's the best place to go for the jugular. One easy visual is if 2+s are coming in clusters and you see sporadic 1s. Just look back and see if you are seeing lots of 1s or not, if not look for the 2 hole to be filled.

PJ

This is such a delicious topic, Papa Joe. You give such in depth analysis. MVS, man it so nice to hear from you again! Missed your insights. I was at Trump Plaza on Tuesday and made 15 units after a rocky first shoe of -6. For some reason, I seem to have a crappy first shoe more often than not, when I enter at a mid point. My second and subsequent shoes come out so much better in the positive. Just an observation. Wonder if anyone has the same experience. I realize that a positive first shoe both monetarily and emotionally important. Maybe I am too hyped up when I first sit at a table.

I know I ramble on. But, lets get back to the 2's. Walking from the Plaza to the Taj is a nice walk. One the way, I check in at Caesar's. tables are full and F-2 is showing dominance on one board and the second tote board table is all over the place. No seat available in site after being there a while, so its on to Bally's. Two tote boards for E-Z baccarat (most tote boards are just the non commission games in AC). Again, watched for about 15 mins no seating. One table is really f-2 sweet other, well, it was confusing. So I move on. Get to Resorts. Resorts have lower minimum tables. They also have tables that are full. Problem is that NONE of the tables show a tote, so no use trying to diagnose. Ok, I finally get to the Taj. Papa Joe would have loved what I saw. One tote showing 2's galore, low 1's, one streak of 6,another of 4,about 44 decisions into the shoe. So I park myself looking for the 2's trend to continue. IT DID...9 in a freaking row! then lost one hit the next one. I was playing 2 units so I got my 20. I am usually a chicken and normally only go 1-2-3. But, I felt so good with the two's showing and I got daring for me. Many here with experience, would have continued, but here I am with a 20..for me that is major..So I sat there watching the shoe play out to completion. I decided to cash in my chips. A guy at the table said WHY DID YOU STOP, YOU WERE ON A ROLL.. just felt good about making 20, its a rarity for me. I told him this line that I heard from a Greek friend many years ago..You can't go broke when in Profit. ...

One final note to express. I purchased and downloaded the PA Seminar Part II on Monday prior to going to AC the next day. I reviewed it 3 times that day. It helped a lot. I way more than paid off the total amount of Parts I and II purchase price with my winnings that day. 35 units total for the day was a sweet day for me. If you didn't attend the Seminar, buy the video version, you won't regret it. Thanks to all the members for your insight and helping me with my Baccarat education.

Ciao

Joey

[joeystyle]

It takes a bit of experience to know good shoes from bad shoes but basically the more a shoe is biased the better it is and the more you should be betting ON that bias. I consider this more a duty than an option. You are not always going to get good shoe days. We need to take advantage of good shoes when we get them to make up for the inevitable bad shoe days.

A shoe CAN'T be high in everything or low in everything. Whatever a shoe is high in, it MUST be low in other thing(s) to balance out. This is not an opinion. It is mathematical fact.

For instance: in the long run 3s equal 4+s (4 or mores). Take a shoe that is high in 3's (significantly more than one 3 every 16 plays). It might be averaging 3 3s every 16 plays. But then to make up for this the same shoe is low in 2s and 4 or mores. This ONE fact gives us TWO advantage bets. First we can bet a repeat under a 2, betting that 2 will go to 3. Say we win that bet. Great, now we can bet an opposite after the 3 betting the 3 won't go to 4. We are betting the 2 will go to 3 because the shoe is high in 3s. Then we are betting the 3 will stay 3 because the shoe is low in 4 or mores. Both are advantage bets IF we take advantage of them.

Betting ON biases is what winning Baccarat is all about. Most players will do the exact opposite. 4s are behind so they bet 4s will catch up. This is what that Macau training course teaches you to do. That is what casinos WANT you to do so that is what they teach and always have. That is why the avg Bac player loses at 26% rather than only the 1.25% dictated by commission.

Look at it this way: The casino wants you to lose. Sure, they are nice to you. They are paid to be nice to you. But they want you to lose. Note that when you win they are not so nice anymore. Therefore, whatever the casino wants you to do, do the opposite. THAT is what SAP teaches you to do and that is why I invented SAP. Sure, 4s will eventually catch up, maybe in ten shoe, maybe in 100. But they aren't going to catch up in this shoe you are playing right now. And that is what you bet!

It is the same in BJ. The casinos WANT you to card count. THAT is why they sell card counting books in their gift shops. They've had card counting completely beat for 25 years. They just don't want you to know that.

That Macau Training course? Guys that took that course are now complaining that they are losing at an even faster rate now playing exactly the way that course teaches you to play.

Look, there is only ONE way to beat Baccarat and that is to bet WITH biases rather than against them. THAT is what we teach here at BTC and that is WHY we teach that way. NOBODY else teaches what we teach. NOBODY!

In BJ card counting teaches you to bet high when the count is going up. Watch my lips - You don't win when the count is going up. You win when the count is going DOWN. THAT is when the tens are falling.

IN BJ, card counting teaches you how to lose FASTER.

In Bac, the casinos, including the Macau Training course, teach you how to lose faster.

See? THAT is why casinos hate us!

You've only got ONE friend and that is US, not the casinos. The casinos are out to beat you! WE AREN'T. WE are out to beat them. And I'm sorry but WE are the only ones. Most of you already know that because you have tried everyone else. But these new guys - they don't know who we are... yet.

PJ, you can say whatever you want to say wherever you want to say it. You won't get any argument from me. YOU are one of the good guys. I've got enough bad guys to deal with.

On the topic of a Casino wanting their players to lose, I noticed some changes at the Plaza that occurred from the last time I visited there two weeks ago. In their baccarat area, they use to have a 10,000 dollar max bet and 200 max bet on dragons 40:1 odds. Now, its a 3,000 max bet and only 50 dollar max bet on Dragons. Wonder if they were getting clobbered on the Dragon bets so they lowered the max on it? In the past dealers egged players to place money on the dragon 7 spot. Many of the players do that. I have NOR so I have enough to work with and learn. I don't need ties and dragons to enter my world of Baccarat. Plaza out of the blue, also added a BJ table to the Bac table area. Caesar's on the other hand, has reversed it max bets. They use to have a $62 max bet on dragons, and 3,000 max on a table bet. Now they go with a 200 dollar max on dragon and 10,000 max table bet. Wonder why the change in policies for both Casinos.

The dragon bets are incredible lures for some at the Casinos. The dealer at the Taj told me the previous shoes before I got there, a women had a 12,000 dollar buy in. She is chasing dragons and ties along with her regular P and B bets. Her chip pile dwindles down to about 600 bucks. She places 200 dollars on a dragon and makes 8k on it. She still lost about 3 k for the day.

At any casino I go to, I hear this refrain from a dealer when a player loses his or her chip pile and exits the table, aww sorry, better luck next time!

Dealers are in a funny position with Players. If a player loses, they have no chance of receiving any kind of tip. If a person wins they would get a token of their appreciation. But, since the Casinos needs the players to lose to make money, dealers really know who is buttering their bread overall. I believe in good Karma, so what is the customary tip a player should or could give a dealer when coming out with a positive total for a session?

Ciao

Joey

[wolfat]

Hi guys,

I'm still back from my vacations on french "d'Azur" coast and reading all this stuff about SAP makes me happy.

My good friend PJ's explain a lot about how he's applying the SAP concept and no-one could disagree from him.

SAP is the powerful tool I know and, frankly, I could not play seriously without it, but it's not infallible!

What could we do when SAP doesn't work?

First: when the events count tend to be tied you should start to think: "pay attention! there's something wrong with this shoe!" even if you're losing a couple of units, WAIT!

Wait for a clear bias! NO ADVANTAGE = NO PLAY!

Sitting out and wait is another big advantage the casino doesn't have but we have it and is a MUST when things are not going well!

There are shoes where the count is balanced -they exist- when I lose a bet against the LC event, the next time I should play that event, I wait and see what happens: if this my paper bet were favorable I restart playing it, otherwise I usually see what kind of event is taking the place of LC event and bet accordingly.

To make this last operation requires some experience but you can get the idea.

When you have a MC event, this means that an event is coming more than avg, but this means also that another one is coming less than avg!

Sometimes a LC event tend to recover its avg, this means that another one start disappearing, you must take advantage of this!

sappers are welcome!

ciao

[Guest]

On the topic of a Casino wanting their players to lose, I noticed some changes at the Plaza that occurred from the last time I visited there two weeks ago. In their baccarat area, they use to have a 10,000 dollar max bet and 200 max bet on dragons 40:1 odds. Now, its a 3,000 max bet and only 50 dollar max bet on Dragons. Wonder if they were getting clobbered on the Dragon bets so they lowered the max on it? In the past dealers egged players to place money on the dragon 7 spot. Many of the players do that. I have NOR so I have enough to work with and learn. I don't need ties and dragons to enter my world of Baccarat. Plaza out of the blue, also added a BJ table to the Bac table area. Caesar's on the other hand, has reversed it max bets. They use to have a $62 max bet on dragons, and 3,000 max on a table bet. Now they go with a 200 dollar max on dragon and 10,000 max table bet. Wonder why the change in policies for both Casinos.

The dragon bets are incredible lures for some at the Casinos. The dealer at the Taj told me the previous shoes before I got there, a women had a 12,000 dollar buy in. She is chasing dragons and ties along with her regular P and B bets. Her chip pile dwindles down to about 600 bucks. She places 200 dollars on a dragon and makes 8k on it. She still lost about 3 k for the day.

At any casino I go to, I hear this refrain from a dealer when a player loses his or her chip pile and exits the table, aww sorry, better luck next time!

Dealers are in a funny position with Players. If a player loses, they have no chance of receiving any kind of tip. If a person wins they would get a token of their appreciation. But, since the Casinos needs the players to lose to make money, dealers really know who is buttering their bread overall. I believe in good Karma, so what is the customary tip a player should or could give a dealer when coming out with a positive total for a session?

Ciao

Joey

Casinos, like all US Corporations, have the weakness of knee jerk reaction to month end and quarterly profit reports. They react far too much to short term situations when they should be concentrating on long term profits. World corporations are smarter. They do what is best for long term profits. (They invest in the future)

For instance, American corporations won't invest in anything with more than a 3 year payback so our factories quickly become outdated. On the other hand Asian corporations are OK with a 20 year payback so they are much quicker to invest in the latest technology.

Our politics sufferes from the same disease. We react more to the last ten months than the last ten years.

A casino loses a couple big dragon bets so they change the rules. The casino next door is not getting enough dragon bets so they change their rules in the opposite direction. Knee jerk reaction. But this has no bearing on us since we don't make dragon bets anyway.

What we ARE interested in is things like shuffle tampering or control. Sometimes in their pursuit of the almighty bottom line casinos unwittingly leave themseves vulnerable to exploitation. Now, they've got our attention.

Joey, how much do you tip the checkout clerk at the grocery store? There are only 3 reasons to ever tip dealers. 1. to help keep you from getting barred. 2. To help you get comps and 3. to help make you feel good about yourself. Your dealer does not get your tip. It goes into a pool shared by all casino personnel including Mgt. Think twice.

When is the best time to tip? At the same time you are asking for a dinner comp!

Edited September 22, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Hi guys,

I'm still back from my vacations on french "d'Azur" coast and reading all this stuff about SAP makes me happy.

My good friend PJ's explain a lot about how he's applying the SAP concept and no-one could disagree from him.

SAP is the powerful tool I know and, frankly, I could not play seriously without it, but it's not infallible!

What could we do when SAP doesn't work?

First: when the events count tend to be tied you should start to think: "pay attention! there's something wrong with this shoe!" even if you're losing a couple of units, WAIT!

Wait for a clear bias! NO ADVANTAGE = NO PLAY!

Sitting out and wait is another big advantage the casino doesn't have but we have it and is a MUST when things are not going well!

There are shoes where the count is balanced -they exist- when I lose a bet against the LC event, the next time I should play that event, I wait and see what happens: if this my paper bet were favorable I restart playing it, otherwise I usually see what kind of event is taking the place of LC event and bet accordingly.

To make this last operation requires some experience but you can get the idea.

When you have a MC event, this means that an event is coming more than avg, but this means also that another one is coming less than avg!

Sometimes a LC event tend to recover its avg, this means that another one start disappearing, you must take advantage of this!

sappers are welcome!

ciao

Hi Andrea! Here's some food for thought. In those few shoes where the SAP counts keep tieing. Why don't we simply bet that the SAP count will continue tieing in those few shoes??? We are trying to bet on what the shoe is doing. Are we not?

[d0ma1n]

Hi PJ,

Thanks for the clear explanation. Definately it is a good concept to bet along with the bias instead of against it.

I will re-look this concept with my shoes .. as I feel it is much safer of betting style and yet still yield a strong profit without exposing large capital.

$500 to $7500, it is 1400% return of investment !! Where can you get that in the world ??

[ECD]

Well I hit my goal today taking the DublinBet account from 500 credits to 10,000 credits.. only lost 1 shoe along the way. I know this is only play tokens, but there's no reason to think it won't hold up in brick and mortar casinos. It's just a matter of watching the shoe open like a book and watching the math of the shoe.

This is a good shoe to show the 2 holes being filled. That's where I put the big bets. BTW, I used a up as you lose prog on the 2 hole and usually flat betted the others. My bets ranged mostly from 5.00 to 75.00 with f handful of larger bets. I would be a little more cautious with real money, and I think my session goal would be to double my buy in which is usually 500.00.

PJ

Edited September 22, 2011 by ECD

[B@cc@r@t]

Well I hit my goal today taking the DublinBet account from 500 credits to 10,000 credits.. only lost 1 shoe along the way. I know this is only play tokens, but there's no reason to think it won't hold up in brick and mortar casinos. It's just a matter of watching the shoe open like a book and watching the math of the shoe.

This is a good shoe to show the 2 holes being filled. That's where I put the big bets. BTW, I used a up as you lose prog on the 2 hole and usually flat betted the others. My bets ranged mostly from 5.00 to 75.00 with f handful of larger bets. I would be a little more cautious with real money, and I think my session goal would be to double my buy in which is usually 500.00.

PJ

I did applied the bigger bet in playing Bac today. I put 4 units to bet the second Player after 2-2-1. It was a perfect bet. Next shoes I also bet a second Banker

After a 3-3-1 with a 5 units. I was also paying a lot attention to SAP count before placing bet. Thanks for a lot of helpful information on this thread.

[wolfat]

Hi Andrea! Here's some food for thought. In those few shoes where the SAP counts keep tieing. Why don't we simply bet that the SAP count will continue tieing in those few shoes??? We are trying to bet on what the shoe is doing. Are we not?

Hi boss,

in my experience I try to check this but playing this way puts me in a bad feeling for 2 main reasons:

1) it's against my whole game-philosophy and I'm used to adhere to my principle

2) I'd play not really trusting in my bets waiting for the shoe changing again... and this is not so good

IMHO it's better wait better spots, it's a more relaxing way!

ciao

[wolfat]

PJ,

I played in Dublin this spring in that place (Fitzwilliam card club).

It's little but there's a friendly atmosphere.

I played 3 shoes with 1 3s only! so sweet!

ciao