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Little Help, Please


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Ok guys. Doing a lot of practice. I learn better with actual experience. So this weekend I headed down to Seminole and played a few shoes. Below is a shoe I played. I know there is a better way to play this shoe. I belive if Ellis, or one of the "brains" could give me a little play by play that would help me greatly.

Couple of notes & questions

Hand 6 - I lose 2 hands in a row. I then go OTR for 2 bets. Both bets lose so I know we are in Mode 3 all shoe (in NOR manual says let the shoe tell you). I realize now that my 2nd OTR bet should not be an OTR bet as the first lost. BUT - I played S40 so opposite of the winner was Player again - so it's an opposite bet.. Is this correct? If not, what am I missing?

Hand 13 - I played 2 units on P. B would have been the opposite, and it would have won. However, I chose Player as my 3's were LC - but I think I am mis understanding this LC/MC concept that I read in the S40 manual. Are there any more shoes on this forum that have a little more "play by play? - in any event what should I have done here?

Hand 20 - I went OTR here. I determined that we had to be in Mode 3 as I lost Mode 2 (correct?) so I bet 1 unit - should I have bet more here? In any event - it won. Mode 3 we do OTR one bet so I moved right back to S40 - I then lost 2 more consecutive bets and I went back OTR on hand 23 (it lost) and then S40 had me in opposites - so Player again - it lost too.

So i am CLEARLY struggling here - I love Ellis's comments about nobody being left behind - so I really need some help with this. Again - a little clarity here and I think I will progress much more... and then I will take what I learned from this shoe, and you guys and apply it to my other played shoes :) -- REALLY taking this serious!

Thanks in advance and ANY and ALL comments are greatly appreciated!

There is 2 scans below

[ATTACH]2396[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]2397[/ATTACH]

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Well, OK, I'll do the first shoe but once you see your errors, you can probably do the others yourself. Right, this will end up needing a play by play, and we'll get to that later but first a few immediate pointers:

You started OK. You were trying to play S40. We normally start S40 in Mode 2 because it bets lower but a shoe starting with 3 Opposites I would take the chance of starting in Mode 3 because it is so choppy. Chances are the prior shoe was also choppy. But a +8 OR in only 47 plays especially including a 7 in a row is SUPER chop. You started in Mode 3 bet size wise but in Mode 2 bet position wise.

Starting in Mode 3 and playing S40 correctly you end up at +12 with a worst position of -2 at play 6. But you wouldn't play all the way to +12. You would definitely quit when you hit +10 for the second time back at play 30. This optimizes your Player Advantage.

What were you thinking at play 13??? You bet the wrong side!

But your biggest mistake is play 32. Play 19 puts you in Mode 2 so you bet your 3 on the wrong side, a 6 unit mistake. But the point is moot because you should already have been out of the shoe at play 30 with your +10.

You already confirmed your Mode back at play 7 so play 20 should have been a 4 bet. Another 3 unit mistake. Then you come off the run with a 123 winning your 3 bet at play 23.

In S40 when you win a 1 bet you stay at 1. You are betting M2 (Mandatory 2) which we don't do with S40. We only do that sometimes with NB.

As it turned out, your M2 betting probably helped you more than it hurt because the shoe was so choppy. But it hurt you at key times and caused a higher ABS (avg bet size) - not good.

When we say stay on the run for 2 bets in Mode 2, we mean IF you win the FIRST OTR bet. If your first OTR bet loses you go right back to a 1 bet on opposites.

OK, in the next post I'll give you all the correct plays. Redo the shoe and post it. Then I'll do a play by play. Just be sure your corrected shoe arrives at +12 at the last play.

A lot of mistakes but I've seen beginners do worse.

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Gonna work on it today... getting confused on a couple points, but going to try to work through it first :)

No hurry but let me know if you can't follow my short cut method of transcribing my plays. It might be a little confusing at first but just stare at it and I think you'll get it OK.

Plus anybody who wants to, go ahead and post the shoe so I can do a play by play. It doesn't have to be davem that posts it.

I could have posted my bets this way:

Starting at play 4:

P 1 123 12 1 1 12 1 1 1 123 4

B 123 12 1 1 1 1 12 312 12 3123

B 1 1 1 1 12 1 = +12

See that? The numbers are my bets and the spaces are where my bets changed sides.

That together with our regular shortcut way of posting a blank shoe gives you an entire played shoe. The blank unplayed shoe would look like this:

B 111321121115

P 22111141331

B 111211

Get it?

My legs are crippled but not my brain!

Note that Dave's bets totaled 80 while mine only totaled 70. My P.A. was 17%. We won't discuss Dave's. Just remember, P.A. is everything!

P.A. is Player Advantage which is the same as ROI (Return On Investment) which is units won divided by units bet before commission.

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Ellis,

I have a question about the way you played this. I am sitting here playing this out. I understand you started on Mode 3 as we started out strong opposites. You confirmed that by playing Mode 3 on Play 20 - We lost on Play 17,18,19 so you went 4 on P.

BUT on play 32 You went on the run after only 2 losers. Lost 1 on play 30, lost 2 on play 31, so if its mode 3 should we have not bet 3 on B? Your results showed 3 on Player ?

I realize where my mistakes are up to this but I stopped at Play 31 as how I understand it we are on Mode 3 so I should be having a 3 bet on Play 32 which loses - but you have a 3 on Player.. so confused a bit on this one....

It is worth noting that I did get to a +10 prior to play 32 so I would technically be done.. but would still like clarification on this, please - then I'll continue the shoe and post it :)

David

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Ellis,

One more question.

I am understanding that we do 123 4 - meaning the first time its a 4 unit bet we dont play 4 units - do we play 1 unit or not play? But in any event we dont play the 4 unit until we would have seen a 4 unit bet win. If that is correct, here's my question:

On Play 20 - you bet 4 units and that put you at +6 - but if we are playing 123 4 - why would you bet 4 there?

Buddy I've studied this forum, manual, etc for a long time... Please let me know what I am missing....

Thanks

David

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Ellis,

I have a question about the way you played this. I am sitting here playing this out. I understand you started on Mode 3 as we started out strong opposites. You confirmed that by playing Mode 3 on Play 20 - We lost on Play 17,18,19 so you went 4 on P.

BUT on play 32 You went on the run after only 2 losers. Lost 1 on play 30, lost 2 on play 31, so if its mode 3 should we have not bet 3 on B? Your results showed 3 on Player ?

I realize where my mistakes are up to this but I stopped at Play 31 as how I understand it we are on Mode 3 so I should be having a 3 bet on Play 32 which loses - but you have a 3 on Player.. so confused a bit on this one....

It is worth noting that I did get to a +10 prior to play 32 so I would technically be done.. but would still like clarification on this, please - then I'll continue the shoe and post it :)

David

Ok, David, I'm simply applying the 3rd bet rule which simply says when you win your 3rd bet you stay in the same mode but when you lose your 3rd bet (regardless if you lost it across or straight down) you change modes. At play 19 the 3rd bet lost so I change from Mode 3 to Mode 2 right then and there. So on the next run, the 4 starting at play 29, I'm in mode 2 so I went OTR after 2 losing bets instead of 3. This time I win the 3rd bet so I'm still in Mode 2 for the 3 starting at play 34. But this time I lose the third bet changing me back to Mode 3. Hence I win the third bet at play 40 and there are no more runs. That is how the 3rd bet rule works.

Now, when I say 123 4 what I mean is we don't make a 4 bet W/O first confirming Mode 3. We bet 1 instead. But in your shoe the 3rd bet rule confirmed Mode 3 back at play 7 with a winning 3rd bet played Mode 3. In other words I played exactly per the manual.

Now, you may personally choose to never make a 4 bet or to make them only if you can bet them out of winnings. I usually only make them if I'm even or ahead in the shoe. In this case I was ahead 2 units at the point of the 4 bet so I went ahead and made it. BUT if I was down at all at the point of the 4 bet I would not have made a 4 bet. I would have bet 1 instead just as you did. This keeps your 4 bets down to a minimum, maybe 1 every 3 or 4 shoes.

BTW, the reason we call it the 3rd bet instead of a 3 bet is because we aren't always playing a 123 4. But the 3rd bet wording also works out correct for the 234 and 345 progressions as well.

Are you starting to get it now?

BTW, once we've bet OTR we always make our 3 bet straight down like we did at play 23. That takes care of 7s and a 4 bet takes care of 8s. 9s don't occur often enough to worry about. But it is attention to this kind of detail that separates winners from losers.

I'm suspecting that you no longer need a play by play on this shoe, right? But if you do, by all means, post the shoe per my plays below.

BTW, note in this shoe that we lost the 3rd bet twice but still won the shoe very well. Such is the power of S40 in an S40 shoe. +10 at play 28 is excellent play! But David, only if you play it right.

I put a double hash mark under my first +10 at play 28 and again under my second +10 at play 30 indicating where I would have quit. With the 123 4 I nearly always quit at my FIRST +10 when it occurs after play 20. If I hit +10 in the 1st col. I usually upgrade to the 234/345.

BTW, the 3rd bet rule works exactly this same way for all 3 NOR systems.

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Ellis,

THis helps a lot. I am going to absorb it, and replay the shoe.

I have a question though really quck

Say I lose 1, 2, so I go OTR for Mode 2. Do I bet 3 or do I bet 1 unit? If it's 3, and that loses I know I go back to opposites, but would I then place a one unit bet or a 4 unit bet (assuming I want to go up to 4)

That will help me a bit!

Thanks Ellis - this helps alot. I will have a few more shoes though - but I think it will help all of us anyways - so its a good thing. A couple more shoes with you overviewing it and I think i'll have it!

Have a biz-trip in Vegas the first week of August w/ alot of free time - hoping to have this down a bit more :) :)

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Hi Ellis,

I hate to beat a dead shoe - but I need a little clarification - but I am coming along

I get that play 19 confirms mode 2. In other words, after two losers, we go OTR. Play 21, 22 both lose, so should we not bet on the P on play 23? You played the banker for 3 units, I played the Player as I am understanding that we go OTR after 2 losers.

IF thats true - well my 3rd bet lost, so I need to go to mode 3. Right?? SO down on play 32 you went 3 units on Player - thats mode 2? I went banker, and I know it cost me 6 units, but if the 3rd bet lost we switch modes, hence mode 3 on play 32??

So were you not playing mode 3 on play 23??

Sorrry Ellis, I truly think I am close - I have been thinking this over for 2 days - and trying to understand this part of the shoe. Again, I see my mistakes earlier in the shoe - but I cant pick it up on these plays....

David

[ATTACH]2398[/ATTACH]

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Hi Ellis,

I hate to beat a dead shoe - but I need a little clarification - but I am coming along

I get that play 19 confirms mode 2. In other words, after two losers, we go OTR. Play 21, 22 both lose, so should we not bet on the P on play 23? You played the banker for 3 units, I played the Player as I am understanding that we go OTR after 2 losers.

IF thats true - well my 3rd bet lost, so I need to go to mode 3. Right?? SO down on play 32 you went 3 units on Player - thats mode 2? I went banker, and I know it cost me 6 units, but if the 3rd bet lost we switch modes, hence mode 3 on play 32??

So were you not playing mode 3 on play 23??

Sorrry Ellis, I truly think I am close - I have been thinking this over for 2 days - and trying to understand this part of the shoe. Again, I see my mistakes earlier in the shoe - but I cant pick it up on these plays....

David

No problem Dave and that is an easy mistake to make. See, our OTR betting is on a per run basis. On that 7 in a row, you already went OTR back at play 20. You don't go OTR on the same run again. Your Mode was established back at play 19. The 7 doesn't change that fact.

This is why we talk about the fewer 9s we see today. That is why the absence of 9s is so important to us. A 9 in either Mode would require a 5 bet which we are very reluctant to make.

However, if we are seeing a lot of 9 or mores that day or at that casino then, once on the run we stay OTR until we lose our 1 bet. Then we stay at 1 for our next regular bet. This is true of both S40 and OTB4L.

I'm sure your questions make good review for others as well. Right guys?

The more experience you get the more you realize what good sense all our rules make. After all, our rules were developed over thousands of modern shoes. Our rules are about what USUALLY happens in real casino games. But we won't be right every single time. This is why I pointed out that we lost our 3rd bet twice but still won the shoe in very good shape.

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Ellis is spot on, the review is always welcomed! Dave, seeing you work through your difficulties helps the rest of us see this shoe from a different view. Thanks for posting and remember, Ellis says there are no stupid questions...and no one is left behind! Welcome!

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Well i must say - working through this one shoe is quite the learning experience.

THANK YOU.

I will replay the shoe again, today... THen I am going to apply what I learned and replay a few other shoes first and see if I am picking it up!

I figure once I have S40 down the big part then is learning when/if to switch systems, and when to progress to a 234 opposed to a 123 4 and just keep moving on...

THanks guys - more questions to come FOR SURE

I am glad this is helping the newbies - learn from my mistakes!!!

David

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Well i must say - working through this one shoe is quite the learning experience.

THANK YOU.

I will replay the shoe again, today... THen I am going to apply what I learned and replay a few other shoes first and see if I am picking it up!

I figure once I have S40 down the big part then is learning when/if to switch systems, and when to progress to a 234 opposed to a 123 4 and just keep moving on...

THanks guys - more questions to come FOR SURE

I am glad this is helping the newbies - learn from my mistakes!!!

David

Hang in there David! Everyone here, including me, went through exactly what you are going through right now. But the learning curve gets quicker and quicker as you go. Pretty soon you'll see that everything is based on good old common sense.

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WEll I am hanging in and i can tell i am learning. but here is a shoe from Zumma that got me a little confused.

Here's the hi-lites:

I start with S40. I made a mistake by betting 2 units after my first 1 bet loss - (dont bet 2 until you win on a 1). I confirm mode 2 at play 5.

I lose on mode 2, and therefore confirm mode 3 at play 8.

I lose on mode 3 and therefore conform mode 2 at play 13

I SKIP OTR at play 16 as its the same B run (learned that from your last post, Ellis, thank you) and it works out. but still Mode 2 RIGHT???

I win on a mode 2 on play 21 confirming mode 2 again

I lose on Mode 2 at play 33 and therefore conform mode 3.

So I lost 3 units playing mode 2 so I bet 1 unit on player and I LOSE. So technically I lost 2 bets 3 units and 1 unit. so I am mode 3 so I should do 2 units on Player, right??

now I was down way past my stop earlier in the shoe. If this was real, I would have quit - but want to clarify all of this and see if I could have done better on the first column.

It's worth noting that at play 26 I was -7 on the O/R count..

Where do you make the decision to go to F from S40??? -5? -7? is there a line in the sand here??

Either way - feel free to TEAR Me apart - no other way to learn, right ? :) :) :)

[ATTACH]2399[/ATTACH]

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
WEll I am hanging in and i can tell i am learning. but here is a shoe from Zumma that got me a little confused.

Here's the hi-lites:

I start with S40. I made a mistake by betting 2 units after my first 1 bet loss - (dont bet 2 until you win on a 1). I confirm mode 2 at play 5.

I lose on mode 2, and therefore confirm mode 3 at play 8.

I lose on mode 3 and therefore conform mode 2 at play 13

I SKIP OTR at play 16 as its the same B run (learned that from your last post, Ellis, thank you) and it works out. but still Mode 2 RIGHT???

I win on a mode 2 on play 21 confirming mode 2 again

I lose on Mode 2 at play 33 and therefore conform mode 3.

So I lost 3 units playing mode 2 so I bet 1 unit on player and I LOSE. So technically I lost 2 bets 3 units and 1 unit. so I am mode 3 so I should do 2 units on Player, right??

now I was down way past my stop earlier in the shoe. If this was real, I would have quit - but want to clarify all of this and see if I could have done better on the first column.

It's worth noting that at play 26 I was -7 on the O/R count..

Where do you make the decision to go to F from S40??? -5? -7? is there a line in the sand here??

Either way - feel free to TEAR Me apart - no other way to learn, right ? :) :) :)

[ATTACH]2399[/ATTACH]

davem

Might help U, might not..

I keep track of following 6 metrics

P

B

O

R

OTBl

TBL

After each decision, I just put a little mark next to what the last hand results were

Goes pretty fast, once you get used to it.

As the disparity from norm 50/50 builds, it acts as a pretty good road map to make your next selection...shows where the highest disparity exists

Gives me a snapshot of N.O.R. Biases all in one..

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Guys, speaking of RE: a little help please, I need a little help too.

One of my BTC obligations is sales - new members. Without that there would be no BTC.

Well I just spent hours on the public forum writing a sales blog on the thread "Is this shoe biased?"

Or some such. Anyway, in my blog I said "Right Guys?" several times.

I would greatly appreciate your positive comments on that thread. The public wants to hear from you, not me.

Bluetri, you write great posts.

Davem, yeah, I know you are still a little wet behind the ears, but at least you could say a little about the help new members get. which BTW I'll get back to after I finish my obligation over there.

BUT most of you guys write very good posts. Doesn't have to be anything long, just verifying comments. What you say is up to you, not me.

But I would definitely like to have your support over there. That is what keeps the forum going.

Thanks in advance!

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What forum(s) do you need help on? Glad to help !!

Thanks Davem! I tried to copy the link but something went wrong.

On our front page hit forum, then Baccarat then scroll down to the thread

Is this shoe biased? That will get you there. I'll try a link again.

This thread is located at http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6958

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