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Super S40 Shoe at Bet Phoenix


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All,

Well, with the hurricane coming in and having all of my chores done that needed to be completed to be "ready" for it, I made a quick check in over at BPH to see if anything was looking like I could jump in for a few quick wins before heading off to sleep. When I logged in, I got this dandy of a shoe.

It was kind of odd in that the tote board was showing about half the shoe already finished, but the actual cards on the table were very early in the shoe so obviously the tote board had scores from the previous game as when I was actually finished, it showed 136 hands played! So it appears that my initial observation was correct.

Anyway, this shoe was so choppy that I saw some guy in a white shirt and tie hovering around the table for almost the entire second half of the shoe. Never saw that happen before. He was very intent on the decisions at the table for sure.

The play by play on this System 40 only shoe should be obvious. At one time, around hand 18-20 I was toying with the idea of going to F2 as the play, but stuck with S40 because I'm stubborn and I actually like S40 over F2.

F2 or F3 would have also done nicely with this shoe and as the wife was making some smart aleck remarks about me only taking a "few hands" in and staying in the game so long, I figured I may as well play it out until I fell back to some determined stop points. The "15" and "25" notations on the right side were where I made notes to myself that those would be stop loss points should the shoe turn against me.

Notice that the count actually got into the mid 20's later in the shoe. Very unusual for sure so I just HAD to keep playing it to see where it wound up. As it turns out, this was one of my very rare +30 shoes. I'm usually in the +6 to +10 area and will always settle for a safe +3 or +4 if the shoes gets ugly. This one just wouldn't stop chopping so I just kept going! With a SAP count of 18-8-0-8 at the bottom of the first column, how could I NOT keep going!!

MVS

BetPhoenix 8-25-2012 PM

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Bac-BPH-S40-082512-597.jpg

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Hi MVSeahog,

Question:

In looking at your results(great job, by the way) I notice that you decided to not bet hands 13, 14, and 15. What was your reasoning? Were you anticipating that the shoe was turning into a streaky shoe and played it safe? Or did I miss an aspect of NOR here?

Thanks!

Dave

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Hi MVSeahog,

Question:

In looking at your results(great job, by the way) I notice that you decided to not bet hands 13, 14, and 15. What was your reasoning? Were you anticipating that the shoe was turning into a streaky shoe and played it safe? Or did I miss an aspect of NOR here?

Thanks!

Dave

Dave,

I elected to not wager there because of the 3 losses in a row early in the shoe AND seeing that my early choppy shoe had just gone 2,3 and might be going streaky. I was still up 1 unit so there was no hurry to "chase" those three losses. Let's let the shoe run a bit and see if it comes back. I waited for a paper win and then eased back in to pick up two wins. That was also a pivotal area as I looked back and saw a 2,3,4,1,4 run and was considering going to the "F" series to bet. I think if another 3 or 4 had showed up, I would have made the switch to F2 to test it out.

Waiting out a hand or two is not in the NOR manual I don't believe. That's something that I picked up from PapaJoe back when we were working on variations of the original SAP charting. Back then it was wait for a paper win after two losses. I got used to it and now I'll generally fall back into that pattern early in the shoe when three losses in a row show up. It's just a personal type of thing when I'm not really confident about what the shoe is showing me at that time.

Hope this helps.

MVS

Edited by MVSeahog
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MVS,

Helps alot, thanks. That's 2 for 2 today, whereas I was thinking similarly to your NOR thoughts. I also saw that you dropped back to +1 unit at that point and figured that was part of your reasoning. I would assume that is the road NOR trains us to take to analyze the shoes. Doing it on the fly as you do is my real challenge though. Talk to you...

Dave

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