Jump to content

UR doing fine, suddenly your losing, why? A new look at the OR count-IMPORTANT

Recommended Posts

Hi Everyone,

I hope you are winning!!

As I continue to conduct many NOR and Pro baccarat seminars, a single concern comes up. It sounds like this:

"I am doing fine. playing the right strategy. Suddenly, I find myself on the wrong side. I read the OR count, it says chop (or streak etc) . I play what it says, but the game kills me. What is happening?"

I have learned that there is some confusion over how to read the OR count correctly. And, rightfully so. The OR count can be your biggest friend if read properly. Or the the very thing that causes you to lose that six unit advantage you had just three or four hands ago. Or, you are doing great. But all of a sudden you find yourself betting on the exact wrong place. You are betting with the losing side, not the winning side. Well, I think I have an answer. It involves a different look at how to use the OR count.

So let's look at what the OR count is for.

First - the OR count is designed to tell if the shoe is a chop - (positive OR count) - a streak - (negative OR count) or a neutral -(staying in between positive and negative OR count) If you know this, you can tell what strategy to play.

Now, what has been left out of the equation is this: What exactly is the definition of a plus, minus, or neutral OR count. Is it a + or - in real time? Or can if fluxuate within the bounds of a + or - area. That is, can I have a negative OR count even if the numbers indicate a +?

The answer is YES.

Why the confusion? Because of such phenomena as this.

You can have a negative OR count and still show plus numbers. (HUH?) -- yea.. or -- you can be showing negative numbers and yet be in a neutral shoe....??? Or still show negative numbers and yet be in a chop. How does this happen???

Simple. Here is an example from a shoe I recently played. The shoe was a solid streak and took me down to a -5 OR count. Then, I lost 2 in a row. I applied mode 2. Then I assessed what was going on. The OR count was -5, then -4, then -3, then -3, then -4 etc. Do you see what is happening? The numbers are in the minus category, but the OR count is showing a neutral show. The shoe had taken me down to a negative count because it was a streak show. But, after I lost 2 bets and applied mode 2, it hovered in that -4,-5,-4,-3 area for a while. Just because the numbers were negative did not mean I was in a streak shoe anymore. I was now in a neutral shoe. By the way, this happened in a training seminar. It was great for the attendees to see this. They began to re-think how to approach the OR count. I ended up winning the shoe by 17 units.

In a similar situation. I had a +6 OR count. Great chop count. But, after losing 2 bets and applying mode 2, it did this: +5,+4,+3,+2,+3,+2,,, so what is the direction of this shoe??? It is going down. It is a negative show showing positive numbers. So,even though it had positive numbers, I played a streak (negative) shoe. It was the direction of the shoe that dictated what to play.

This tells us to re-visit the concept of the OR count. I am teaching my clients that the OR count has two determining variables.

One is the positive - negative - neutral numbers in real time. That is -- you can visibly see a +2,+3, +4 -- or a -3,-4,-5 etc.

But the other variable -- and just as important -- is the DIRECTION of the OR count. If you are in a + OR count, but the direction is going negative, guess what is happening???????? yep-- a streak shoe. Or if it is going back and forth on a +4,+5,+4,+3--- now you are neutral. And this is the very thing that has confused all of us. We are going along fine. We have a chop game or a streak game, then, suddenly, something changes. We read the OR count-- it says +, so I bet system 40, and lose 4 in a row. Yep - guys,, I've been there too. In other words, it is an OR count - within an OR count. It is the direction that becomes the stable datum, not the actual real time number.

This is the solution. Pay attention to the direction, not just the real time numbers of the OR count. If you see it changing, change with it. You do not need to lose a few bets if you see it coming. Or, once you apply a mode (because you lost either 2 or 3 in a row) assess. Check the direction of the OR count. Not just the plus's and minus's. It may be an OR count within an OR count.

I think this alone will help many of us better predict the events and win more shoes.

I know this will help. I will be posting more tips over the next few weeks. I have more specifics on how to apply the modes that should help all of us win more. -- got a question

We are exploring the idea of doing a serious hard cor NOR / Pro Baccarat seminar... a boot camp.. in Vegas. How many would attend if we had one in Dec?

See you at the winners table!


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Steve!

Count direction! A very important concept in Baccarat and critical in BJ.

In Bac, when a - count is moving toward 0 it is whispering in your ear: 40 40 40 40 40

Moneybac, noting the direction eliminates the need of capping. Think about it.

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

yes,so no more capping,always wonder about that,like you were not seeing the whole picture, when you cap at 3,now you go say 6,even 8,now it goes neutral,makes sense,of course it's not going back to 0,that would be to easy,so you have to adjust to that,going 5 then 6,then 4,then 6,then 5,so you have your little game inside a game,without going to 0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 5 months later...

Hi Steve,

Great post on the trending of the OR count!

I'm new to NOR, and have come across this situation countless times in my live shoes as well as my practice shoes.

The info seems solid and logical, but having gone through many posts and the NOR manual, Ellis points out that fundementally,

it's not good practice to change approaches within the shoe.

As such, my question to the vets would be, can you win using basic NOR alone?

I'm a big believer that if you want to become a master, you must master the basics. My challenge

with the application of this principle is that the basics here don't seem to be cutting it. There is a derivative play to every

situation. This provides a challenge to the newbies like myself.

If we were continuously assessing shoes throughout, would it not make more sense, to break the shoe into

equal parts, and make a small win target for each segment? Our shoe goal could remain the same, but our approach

could be different. The strategy would be a function of OR count and current trend - say, the last 8 hands.

Any thoughts to the above are appreciated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Steve,

As such, my question to the vets would be, can you win using basic NOR alone?


I'm probably one of the people who still bases his overall play on basic NOR, specifically S40 and F2/3.

I do have the "luxury" of being able to see all of the shoe played before I jump in with my wagers as I'm online and can view the entire board as played up to that point.

I am very slow to change, especially when something is winning, so I'll probably be late to the NOR+ game too.

For now, NOR works for me in the particular way that I play.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOR+, as the name implies, is not a different system. It is basically adding more aggressive betting strategies to NOR once you have achieved a hit rate above 50%. It takes advantage of your improved hit rate to return higher scores. It also adds Mode 1 to modes 2 and 3 to improve your maneuverability in streaky sections or streaky shoes. But the basic concept is the very same as NOR. But mind you, Mode 1 comes up only very occassionally BECAUSE when shoes are that streaky we are usually playing F to begin with. But Mode 1 can come in handy when an OTB4L shoe or even an S40 shoe completely changes its nature to Streak and/or Strong Side. The key word here is "completely". We can't be applying Mode 1 every time we see a 4 in a row. BUT when we see a shoe changing to runs following runs, whether ST or ZZ or both, Mode 1 is a good option and avoids changing systems completely.

Changing systems mid shoe too often remains the #1 mistake made by NOR players, including me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use