I think this a bad shoe

[donw]

Here is a shoe I played last night at the commerce casino here in Los Angeles I could not get a handle on it I started on play 12 I played OTB4L

Then A six in a row on player I thought about switch to streak mode but I just watched and walked away from this shoe how would the experts play this shoe

B213121261311311321

Thanks

Don

[Mbasics]

Im not an expert, based on my experience with NOR so far, S40+F3 should work, especially after the run of 6.

[kingfisher]

I checked this shoe out rather quickly so hope I did not make any mistakes. I started OTB4L at 3rd play and ended up plus 13 units.

[donw]

I checked this shoe out rather quickly so hope I did not make any mistakes. I started OTB4L at 3rd play and ended up plus 13 units.

How did you play the singles and the runs I played when I lost 2 bets in a row I jumped on them but lost so I just watched for a while

Then left any more explanation would be appreciated

Thanks Again

[Mbasics]

Timing is everything here, kingfisher said he started at 3rd play using otb4l and quit when he's up 13 units. You started at play 12 when the shoe changed otb4l pattern from there to a run of 6 and choppy shoe, which is better to use s40. I have seen a lots shoes like this by the shuffle machine, when you see a pattern eg TTs and after 2 or 3 repeats, the shoe pattern changes to a run or chop chop. Thats why for now i use more of s40 which help me to manage the pattern change better. Hope this helps.

[Guest]

Here is a shoe I played last night at the commerce casino here in Los Angeles I could not get a handle on it I started on play 12 I played OTB4L

Then A six in a row on player I thought about switch to streak mode but I just watched and walked away from this shoe how would the experts play this shoe

B213121261311311321

Thanks

Don

Hi Don! Long time no see. This is a classic shoe for NOR+. Simply start at play 2 and play OTB4L staying in Mode 3.(NOR+) Don't bother with any Mode 1's or 2s. Bet U1D2. This is the way I usually play and I always start this way with new cards. You'll see you score a very easy +15 in only 35 plays - less than half a shoe, W/O ever going negative. The whole shoe would very likely have been an easy +20 or more! OTB4L M3 (NOR+) has no problem with 6s or even 7s, 8s or 9s. Your highest bet is only a single 4 at play 18 and you have only 3 3 bets. You can't get much safer than that! Your PA is an easy 27.3%. Is that expert enough for you?

Edited February 6, 2013 by Guest

[donw]

Hi Don! Long time no see. This is a classic shoe for NOR+. Simply start at play 2 and play OTB4L staying in Mode 3.(NOR+) Don't bother with any Mode 1's or 2s. Bet U1D2. This is the way I usually play and I always start this way with new cards. You'll see you score a very easy +15 in only 35 plays - less than half a shoe, W/O ever going negative. The whole shoe would very likely have been an easy +20 or more! OTB4L M3 (NOR+) has no problem with 6s or even 7s, 8s or 9s. Your highest bet is only a single 4 at play 18 and you have only 3 3 bets. You can't get much safer than that! Your PA is an easy 27.3%. Is that expert enough for you?

Welcome back Mr Davis good to hear from you and long time no see

i walked in on the shoe about play 10 I thought after about 2 plays more it was an OTB4l shoe because the O/R count was hovering not really going anywhere I played OK until the the Streak of 6 came up the shoe switched to the zz pattern I just watched after that I was OTB4L I was in Mode 2 I guess I should have switched to mode 3 but the shoe made me feel very uncomfortable so I walked losing 5 units

[Mbasics]

Dear Ellis,

I have a question about when to start betting in a shoe, looks like expert (e.g.)You and advanced player (e.g. kingfisher) started the shoe very early at 2nd or 3rd play - which turns out a good thing for this specific shoe.

I usually start after 12 to 20 hands to have a better view of the shoe type.

If I do want to start at 3rd play, do you recommend playing NOR+ and U1D2 as a general rule.

thank you so much in advance.

[HotCooler]

Hi donw, thanks for the question! I have the similar question for the pros here..

I saw a similar shoe yesterday! OR count was hovering between +2 and -2, at the 15 game i decided to play and a streak of 8 Players came along!

I got hit by 2 bets and my question is.. after that streak of 8.. is this considered to be a neutral shoe, streak shoe or still a chopping shoe? or should I stop and watch?

Welcome back Mr Davis good to hear from you and long time no see

i walked in on the shoe about play 10 I thought after about 2 plays more it was an OTB4l shoe because the O/R count was hovering not really going anywhere I played OK until the the Streak of 6 came up the shoe switched to the zz pattern I just watched after that I was OTB4L I was in Mode 2 I guess I should have switched to mode 3 but the shoe made me feel very uncomfortable so I walked losing 5 units

[witchygal]

Hi Hotcooler,

Welcome to the private forum. For the shoe that you had described, i wouldn't wait till 15 plays then start. You would have missed the good part and the shoe might be changing to another trend.

As the manual says you can divide a shoe into 3 sections (20 plays per column) and you will see that each part may be a different trend (so you can use 1 of the NOR system in that section). For pre-shuffled cards we are at a disadvantage and hardly get very bias shoes unless you are lucky.

So for me i will play portion of the shoe with a certain NOR system and get out with a small profit. Hope this helps.

[kingkong]

HI Ellis...I'm very new here. Could u be able to show me how u play this shoe. I still dont understand how u +15 in 35 plays. And another questions what the different between preshuffle cards and automatic shuffle mach please.

[Guest]

HI Ellis...I'm very new here. Could u be able to show me how u play this shoe. I still dont understand how u +15 in 35 plays. And another questions what the different between preshuffle cards and automatic shuffle mach please.

Sure kingkong and welcome to the group! I take it you are referring to this shoe: B213121261311311321. But lets take your question first. It would help if I knew where you live so I can talk about the casinos you face.

Preshuffled cards have nothing to do with shuffle machines.

Your question should be what is the difference between "regular" cards and "preshuffled" cards?

Regular cards originally came to the table in 8 sealed decks in boxed card order. - Ace through King in each suit starting with spades. When you buy a new deck of cards, the cards are in boxed card order. These are the cards we prefer. Regular cards are always first spread on the table and thoroughly checked to see that all the cards are there. Then they go through a card prep which involves a "wash" - spreading the decks on the table and hand mixing them. THEN they go through a standard shuffle either by hand or machine. The whole thing takes about a half hour.

Preshuffled cards originally came to the table in a bundle of 8 decks already "shuffled" by the factory. You have no way of knowing if all the cards are there. You are put in the sorry position of having to trust a casino. That is why preshuffled cards are illegal in some U.S. States.

I seriously doubt that factories ever actually shuffle the cards. They likely put all 8 decks in perhaps 2 or 300 different known orders instead of boxed card order. But each order is marked on the bundle package. Casinos can then pick the card orders that historically have favored the casino the most. These will be card orders that produce mixed shoe types. This tends to be proved out by our Singapore players, like Witchygal just below, who always face preshuffled cards and always get mixed shoe types, while our regular cards players seldom get mixed shoe types especially when the cards are new.

Some casinos who purchase "preshuffled" cards put them directly into the shoe and deal. (VERY questionable). Others give them a cursory shuffle first. Either way you have no idea if all the cards are there.

Shuffle machines BTW don't actually shuffle the cards either. They take each card and put it into a specific slot. This gets a little scary with the new machines that are equipped with card readers.

It is best to stay away from both preshuffled cards and shuffle machines and stick to hand shuffled tables that start with regular cards - if that is possible given your location. It is possible on line BTW but not everywhere on line.

Now lets take a look at that shoe: OK, I played OTB4L U1D2 Mode 3 which is what I usually play in the casino until and if something else proves better. We also refer to that as NOR+.

I perhaps cheated a little bit by starting at play 2 with a repeat instead of play 3 but I usually also do that in the casino.

OTB4L means opposite the time before last. We bet on the side that won the hand before last.

U1D2 means, starting at 1 unit, we go up 1 after a loss and down 2 after a win except we don't go below 1.

Mode 3 means we go OTR (on the run either straight or ZZ) after 3 losing bets for ONE bet only, then back to OTB4L.

BTW, it is a little trick of math but OTB4L also means we bet on O after an R and on R after an O. That is a much simpler way to look at it for most players. A couple of shoes and you'll have the bet placement routine down pat. Very simple.

So OK, for that shoe my bets were: 0, B1, P1, P1, B2, P1, P2, P1, B2, P1, P1, B2, P1, P1, B1, B2, B3, P4, B2, B1, P2, B1, B2, B1, P2, B3, P1, P2, P1, B2, P3, B1, B2, B1, P1 = +15

Now you can draw the shoe out on your cwn card and check my play.

We like to play OTB4L when Os are relatively equal to Rs. This shoe had 17 Os (Opposites) and 17 Rs (Repeats) making it ideal for OTB4L.

We had a whopping 27% PA (units won / units bet). By comparison BJ card counters strive for a 0.5% PA. - All that study and practice to win waitress tips!

Now recognize that OTB4L is just one system of the 3 NOR systems.

And M3 is just one Mode of 2 Modes.

And U1D2 is just one betting strategy of several but it happens to be my favorite.

So you have a long way to go.

Do you have a NOR manual? If not, get one. Everything you need to know is in that manual.

Now, how would we know to play OTB4L.

Well if we didn't already know before the shoe started, which we usually do with regular cards, this shoe started with a 213.

OTB4L M3 beats all single and double 1's, all 2s, all 3s, all 4s, and all 6 or mores. It's culprit is 5s. This shoe started with 3 winning OTB4L events. So what would we do if we started getting a lot of 5s? Switch to Mode 2 which beats 5s. See, its really all pretty simple once you get your basics down pat. NOR pretty much has an answer for nearly everything that can happen in a Baccarat shoe.

So now, where do you live?

Edited February 16, 2013 by Guest

[ECD]

Thanks for your example on how to play this shoe using OTB4L M3...I am learning heaps from that 1 shoe in the way that you played it.

When you find the time...could you play the same shoe using System 40...I know from the OR count that this is not a S40 shoe but I figure that I will learn a lot on how the experts play a shoe that's not so suitable to the system they are using.

I checked this shoe playing very conservative S40 (1 unit only OTR) and had several get out moments where I would have exited the shoe either at break even or slightly in front...or switched to OTB4L

Could you please play this shoe for me the whole way using S40 so I can see if I am grasping the concept.

Thanks

Oz

Also...Please show me where you would have made the transition to OTB4L if you had started the game using S40

[Guest]

Thanks for your example on how to play this shoe using OTB4L M3...I am learning heaps from that 1 shoe in the way that you played it.

When you find the time...could you play the same shoe using System 40...I know from the OR count that this is not a S40 shoe but I figure that I will learn a lot on how the experts play a shoe that's not so suitable to the system they are using.

I checked this shoe playing very conservative S40 (1 unit only OTR) and had several get out moments where I would have exited the shoe either at break even or slightly in front...or switched to OTB4L

Could you please play this shoe for me the whole way using S40 so I can see if I am grasping the concept.

Thanks

Oz

Also...Please show me where you would have made the transition to OTB4L if you had started the game using S40

Sure Oz: I'll play it the same way except in S40, ie., S40 M3 U1D2. (NOR+) My bets would be: 0, 1P, 2P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 3P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 1B, 2B, 3B, 4P, 2B, 3B, 1P, 1B, 2B, 3B, 1P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 3P, 1B, 1P, 1B, 2B, 3B, 1P, 2P = +12.

Now recognize that I'm not playing regular NOR with 2 Modes and the third bet rule and all that. Because I'm betting U1D2, I'm staying in Mode 3 which makes the culprit straight 4s with S40. So I would only switch to Mode 2 if I was seeing a lot of straight 4s. But there are none so I stay in Mode 3 and score +12. Regular NOR, with switching modes and betting a 123 4 would not do nearly as well.

Starting with S40, hypothetically, I would likely switch to OTB4L right after the 2nd 2 stays 2 because I know that OTB4L LOVES 2's. That would be right after play 10.

It is interesting to note here that both OTB4L and S40 score very well given only 35 plays, staying in Mode 3 and betting U1D2. That is how I usually play OTB4L and S40 in the casino.

F2 gets all the way to +16 but then falls back to +10. So all 3 NOR systems kill this shoe. Why F2 and not F3? Because the early 3 points to F2.

[kingkong]

Thank u so much Ellis. Yes i have NOR manual! but still learning:( and i live in Australia here is i think they using factory pre shuffle cards! so what is ur suggestion?

[ECD]

Sure Oz: I'll play it the same way except in S40, ie., S40 M3 U1D2. (NOR+) My bets would be: 0, 1P, 2P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 3P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 1B, 2B, 3B, 4P, 2B, 3B, 1P, 1B, 2B, 3B, 1P, 1B, 1P, 2P, 3P, 1B, 1P, 1B, 2B, 3B, 1P, 2P = +12.

Now recognize that I'm not playing regular NOR with 2 Modes and the third bet rule and all that. Because I'm betting U1D2, I'm staying in Mode 3 which makes the culprit straight 4s with S40. So I would only switch to Mode 2 if I was seeing a lot of straight 4s. But there are none so I stay in Mode 3 and score +12. Regular NOR, with switching modes and betting a 123 4 would not do nearly as well.

Starting with S40, hypothetically, I would likely switch to OTB4L right after the 2nd 2 stays 2 because I know that OTB4L LOVES 2's. That would be right after play 10.

It is interesting to note here that both OTB4L and S40 score very well given only 35 plays, staying in Mode 3 and betting U1D2. That is how I usually play OTB4L and S40 in the casino.

F2 gets all the way to +16 but then falls back to +10. So all 3 NOR systems kill this shoe. Why F2 and not F3? Because the early 3 points to F2.

Thanks Ellis...I can't wait to go through your play with a fine tooth comb to see where I went wrong...Sure, we learn from our mistakes...but we learn more when we see how a pro avoids those mistakes...There's a moral there somewhere methinks

Just checking...your 3rd bet P2...Should that bet have been P1 because you lost your 1st bet and would normally flat bet single units till your 1st win

Quick question...How often do you find that 2 of your NOR Systems work well in the same shoe?

[Guest]

Thanks Ellis...I can't wait to go through your play with a fine tooth comb to see where I went wrong...Sure, we learn from our mistakes...but we learn more when we see how a pro avoids those mistakes...There's a moral there somewhere methinks

Just checking...your 3rd bet P2...Should that bet have been P1 because you lost your 1st bet and would normally flat bet single units till your 1st win

Quick question...How often do you find that 2 of your NOR Systems work well in the same shoe?

Two sys beating the same shoe is common, perhaps more than half. But two both doing so well is rare. Three beating the same shoe is rare and all three doing very well like they did in this shoe is extremely rare.

Correct, Nor doesn't bet 2 until it has won 1 with its 123 4 prog but I don't bother with that when I'm betting U1D2. I'm depending on the U1D2 to wade through everything a shoe can offer. It USUALLY does but NOT always.

We had a discussion back a bit wherein we were wondering if we should increase our stop loss for U1D2. I am not yet convinced we should although I might cheat a bit if I'm up 6 or 7 shoes but VERY rarely.

Tunica is a 3 hour drive for me so I always plan to stay at least 2 nights. For me a trip is 20 shoes. I only play new cards for the first 3 or 4 shoes. By then they are opening up another table and I go to it. But I am often playing head to head at that hour in the morning and if so I can play faster than 2 shoes per hour. So I can get 20 shoes in in 3 mornings easy. My shoe goal is 20 units but I capture +10. But there are always a couple shoes where I get to +20 in 30 hands or so, so I go for +30 to make up for the +10s, sometimes more. If I lose a couple, I simply play a couple extra. Losing shoes don't usually take long. I'm after 20 wins averaging +20 or +21. I usually make my goal and often with 20 wins in a row.

BUT, recognize that I'm playing IDEAL OTB4L U1D2 conditions - new, regular cards where I watched the card prep at the table.

Sometimes they get tired of me and change the card prep. I don't play the new card prep. I go home.

As soon as I'm gone they go right back to their OTB4L card prep. Nobody else there knows how to beat OTB4L shoes. That's why the casino deploys that particular card prep.

So what do I do for the rest of the day? I play BJ and I'm the best there is and the casino knows it. It's sorta like "Oh shit! Here he comes again." "Hi guys!"

But I'm getting too old. Ha, and that pisses them off even more.

Oz, I want to talk to you about the conditions YOU face so pay attention to my reply to kingkong.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Guest

[Guest]

Thank u so much Ellis. Yes i have NOR manual! but still learning:( and i live in Australia here is i think they using factory pre shuffle cards! so what is ur suggestion?

Hi mate and this goes for Oz too.

You MUST know the conditions your are playing under. Just ask them if you have yet to see new cards come to the table. They usually bring out new cards EARLY in the morning. Any dealer or pit boss should know. Ask them if new cards came to the table in 8 individual boxed decks or in one 8 deck bundle??? It's no big casino secret.

But let's assume the worst for now. Let's assume you find you are playing preshuffled cards,

What do you do different?

First, you need to lower your goals. With preshuffled cards a good goal for the 123 4 is +5 instead of +10.

But a second goal is, at +5, to get to a win ratio where you can confidently double your unit. That way you are playing for the same $ goal we are.

Instead of assuming a bias will hold all the way through a shoe, assume it won't. Try to anticipate a new bias.

Don't base with the U1D2 prog. Base with the 123 4. But deploy the U1D2 in particularly good shoes.

Start shoes in Mode 2 rather than Mode 3 like I do. Mode 2 is cheaper.

Be quick to capture +1. It is a hell of a lot better than -8. Also this will usually happen before you have accrued much commission.

Recognize that you lose our advantage of knowing what shoe type a certain card prep produces.

But hopefully your casinos have tote boards. Only settle for the strongest bias you can find and recognize it is likely to change.

If there are no tote boards you'll have to do the same thing I did before tote boards were invented. Go by the players score cards. It takes a little longer but its just as effective once you get used to it.

Don't play head to head. You need to see some plays.

Recognize that the cards will STILL favor OTB4L more than anything else because those are the shoes the casino makes the most money. OTB4L is therefore your default system.

Listen to everything Witchygal has to say. She is our resident preshuffle expert.

Recognize that you might be better off playing regular cards on line! For this, you want to listen to everything MVS has to say.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Guest

[ECD]

Thanks Ellis,

I'll take that all on board.

I'm beginning to think that these Casino bosses are sneaky buggers.

I'm gonna enjoy taking some of their money off them...see...I'm starting to grow in confidence...if not yet in ability...lol

I'll get there though...It just may take me a little longer than some

Oz

BTW: You are right about the online "Live" Casinos. In Australia, we don't seem to come under too many restrictions accessing overseas Casinos at all