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Shoes from my recent Vegas Trip


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Mirage B1111112121222

HR B12211112111111321262132321121

HR B11212322121141121116112523122612111

HR B133111311211

HR B1134111151211222723141432122112

HR P2531121111112

LUXOR B1115112221132311212411

MB B231212621111311131111113323251132

ARIA B131422112113225111331112271

ARIA P11343

Baccarat Scorecard - Landscape.pdf

2014-06-08-HR3.PDF

2014-06-08-HR2.PDF

2014-06-08-HR1.PDF

2014-06-09-HR1.PDF

2014-06-09-HR2.PDF

2014-06-10-ARIA1.PDF

2014-06-10-LUXOR.PDF

2014-06-10-MB.PDF

Edited by pompanomike
Edited to add my blank scorecard file

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Added score cards how I actually played them for most of the shoes

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Thank you so much for taking the time to post all your shoes. Could you possibly post a play by play of only one of the shoes so I may follow your play of all the shoes you posted. For example; what does "red" represent, why are there solid lines thru some plays you chose not to play, when did you use the SAP to decide which system to switch to. Congrats on your success!

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The scoresheets show how the cards went. If the number is in red, I lost the number of units I wrote in P/B so my bet didn't match where the cards landed. If it is in black I won the number of units I wrote in P/B so my bet was the same as where the cards landed. If there is a line, that was a tie hand. Anything marked 0 was where I didn't bet except for Mandalay Bay hands 41-50 where I played like a typical Vegas gambler.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Mirage B1111112121222

HR B12211112111111321262132321121

HR B11212322121141121116112523122612111

HR B133111311211

HR B1134111151211222723141432122112

HR P2531121111112

LUXOR B1115112221132311212411

MB B231212621111311131111113323251132

ARIA B131422112113225111331112271

ARIA P11343

Man! That is a hell of a lot of 1's!

Only two 7+s in 10 shoes. The norm for 7+ is 1 in 2.

This goes exactly along with what I said about preshuffled cards - low 7+s, normal 6s with high everything else but especially high 1's.

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The scoresheets show how the cards went. If the number is in red, I lost the number of units I wrote in P/B so my bet didn't match where the cards landed. If it is in black I won the number of units I wrote in P/B so my bet was the same as where the cards landed. If there is a line, that was a tie hand. Anything marked 0 was where I didn't bet except for Mandalay Bay hands 41-50 where I played like a typical Vegas gambler.

This method tells you your hit rate at a glance.

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Mirage B1111112121222

HR B12211112111111321262132321121

HR B11212322121141121116112523122612111

HR B133111311211

HR B1134111151211222723141432122112

HR P2531121111112

LUXOR B1115112221132311212411

MB B231212621111311131111113323251132

ARIA B131422112113225111331112271

ARIA P11343

Ok Mike, as promised, here is the shoes you posted played out MDB as best I know it.

image2014_06_16_10_38_210001.pdf

I have the results as 7 wins for +41 units and 3 losses for -11 units. That’s a net win of +30 units. This shoe win % result is better than my overall practice results, but still 70% is not quite up to that 90% shoe win rate.

I marked each shoe where I would have gotten out. Several of the shoes were really straight forward and the correct system based on the SAP count held fine. There were a few tough spots in a couple of the shoes, but for the most part following the correct system for the highest two SAP counts played out ok.

For the tougher counts, high 1’s & 3’s I played S4 and for high 2’s & 4’s I played S23.

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Well it seems your results weren't too off from mine in regards to the preshuffled cards (Mirage and Hard Rock) but when it came to reused cards the games got a bit tougher. The other point of notice is the reused cards were all well into mid afternoon. I don't know how much play they actually got, but in each case (Aria, Luxor, Mandalay Bay) it represented the only open table at that moment in low limit rooms mid day on a Tuesday. I suspect that the Mandalay Bay table didn't see much action. It is kind of out of the way and nobody even walked into the room, much less the table as I played, whereas Aria was a full table right in the main walkway by the cage and Luxor only ever has one table with that day 3 people playing when I arrived.

For me there are three lessons learned:

1. Preshuffled cards can be beat by MDB.

2. The better records I kept, the closer to the system I stayed.

3. I need to go back to the Hard Rock again :)

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Right Gman, thanks!

So what we are saying is there are 4 different types of cards in Baccarat.

1. New regular cards: These are the easiest in my experience. Biases last for about 3 shoes.

2. Old regular cards: These tend to be streaky and/or strong sided - but not always.

3. New preshuffled: These tend to be closest to random, usually favor chop but are whatever the casino wants.

4. Old preshuffled; Biases change but overall tend to favor chop.

Some of the Vegas casinos change old preshuffled every 4 hours, which tells me that the casinos think new preshuffled are the hardest. Hmm, I'm not sure that holds for us.

It would be easy for us to only play new preshuffled - stick to the Vegas touch games - If that would help.

I'm trying to get a feel for which MDB likes best.

From the shoes turned in, MDB seems to do best with regular cards.

Gman, which are your practice shoes mostly?

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Ok Mike, as promised, here is the shoes you posted played out MDB as best I know it.

[ATTACH]3027[/ATTACH]

I have the results as 7 wins for +41 units and 3 losses for -11 units. That’s a net win of +30 units. This shoe win % result is better than my overall practice results, but still 70% is not quite up to that 90% shoe win rate.

I marked each shoe where I would have gotten out. Several of the shoes were really straight forward and the correct system based on the SAP count held fine. There were a few tough spots in a couple of the shoes, but for the most part following the correct system for the highest two SAP counts played out ok.

For the tougher counts, high 1’s & 3’s I played S4 and for high 2’s & 4’s I played S23.

Check your score in the first shoe. Should be +11. Otherwise, correct.

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Right Gman, thanks!

So what we are saying is there are 4 different types of cards in Baccarat.

1. New regular cards: These are the easiest in my experience. Biases last for about 3 shoes.

2. Old regular cards: These tend to be streaky and/or strong sided - but not always.

3. New preshuffled: These tend to be closest to random, usually favor chop but are whatever the casino wants.

4. Old preshuffled; Biases change but overall tend to favor chop.

Some of the Vegas casinos change old preshuffled every 4 hours, which tells me that the casinos think new preshuffled are the hardest. Hmm, I'm not sure that holds for us.

It would be easy for us to only play new preshuffled - stick to the Vegas touch games - If that would help.

I'm trying to get a feel for which MDB likes best.

From the shoes turned in, MDB seems to do best with regular cards.

Gman, which are your practice shoes mostly?

First, my biggest obstacle is not having a lot of preshuffled shoes to practice. Some of my more recent shoes from my casino are preshuffled, since I started playing on a touch table some, but still not many. All of my old shoes are regular cards. I've been doing most of my recent MDB practice on Norm's 60 Vegas shoes, since I know those were preshuffled.

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Heading back to Vegas this weekend, but before I hope to capture a few shoes in south florida. Either way, I'll make sure to record them an post them.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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First, my biggest obstacle is not having a lot of preshuffled shoes to practice. Some of my more recent shoes from my casino are preshuffled, since I started playing on a touch table some, but still not many. All of my old shoes are regular cards. I've been doing most of my recent MDB practice on Norm's 60 Vegas shoes, since I know those were preshuffled.

OK. I'm wondering if the MDB rules should be exactly the same for both preshuffled and regular cards.???

Since preshuffled are much closer to random, SAP SHOULD be meaningless.

This seems to be born out by your high primary prog failures.

Maybe in preshuffled we should be choosing our system based on the lowest SAP counts rather than the highest. We'd be betting that low event counts will catch up - that shoes will catch up to normal event frequencies.

Check that out on Norm's shoes.

Other than Norm's, which we THINK are all preshuffled, I don't know of any other collection of preshuffled shoes. The Wizard's are RG shoes. Maybe there is a new Zumma Tester???

I know that Norn did not differentiate between regular and preshuffled. I know he played a lot of regular cards in Florida and the Gulf Coast. So, I'm not totally sure that all of his 60 shoes posted are Vegas shoes.

I think they are because they do so well. Also Norm said they were.

I know that Norm did much better in Vegas (averaging 6 chips per shoe) than elsewhere.

Perhaps because Vegas shoes are closer to random???

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Gman, in preshuffled your secondary prog is more assured.

Your problem is that you are not making enough money on your secondary prog to cover the losses on your primary prog - just enough to break neven.

I ask again - Since our seconday prog has such a high hit rate in preshuffled, why are we betting so low??? Instead of 0123, why not 0246 when we are playing new preshuffled??? - Maybe even old preshuffled???

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Gman, in preshuffled your secondary prog is more assured.

Your problem is that you are not making enough money on your secondary prog to cover the losses on your primary prog - just enough to break neven.

I ask again - Since our seconday prog has such a high hit rate in preshuffled, why are we betting so low??? Instead of 0123, why not 0246 when we are playing new preshuffled??? - Maybe even old preshuffled???

This is true in what I'm seeing in my testing. I agree a more aggressive secondary progression could help, the problem then becomes the -5 stop loss, it's just too tight with the progressions that way, especially if you start to go down early in the shoe.

My next concern then becomes if you increase the stop loss, then it makes having a stop win that is smaller more difficult to recover from those losing shoes.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
This is true in what I'm seeing in my testing. I agree a more aggressive secondary progression could help, the problem then becomes the -5 stop loss, it's just too tight with the progressions that way, especially if you start to go down early in the shoe.

My next concern then becomes if you increase the stop loss, then it makes having a stop win that is smaller more difficult to recover from those losing shoes.

This was brought up at the MDB level up seminar this week. Here's some thoughts:

We might be out of a shoe before completing the secondary progression. MDB favors very short play times on shoes.

Maybe keep separate score and bankroll for Primary and Secondary Progression? Or just have a separate bankroll for secondary progression losses?

Under current MDB rules, the secondary progression should reset to 0 if there is a system change. Under a 0246 secondary progression, it would be harder to recover that.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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