There is no way to "beat the casino" in the long run

[fragilistic7]

I've gambled a bit. Craps, Baccarat, Blackjack. Researched enough to know that you can't "beat the casino".

Why I'm not a believer:

1. If someone had a way to beat the casino, why would they tell anyone?

2. If you were a dealer and you knew a way to beat the casino, why would you work for minimum wage? Vegas could not find any dealers.

3. If someone tells you that you can beat the casino if you put enough time money & sweat into it, why not just get a job where there is no risk and doesn't stink like a goddam cigarette factory

4. How could anyone prove that they can and do beat the casino? There's absolutely no way to prove it. They know that, and will evade the question if asked.

5. The wizard of odds had a challenge for years where he said that he would give $20,000 to anyone that would prove that they beat the casino in the long run. Nobody collected.

You guys ever hear of a story called "Jack and the Beanstalk"?

[MVSeahog]

Fragilistic,

Well, everyone has an opinion.

Yours is one of many and can be seen in a lot of casino oriented boards.

Hopefully you will spread your message to the various gambling forums out there and not just "spot check" this one.

I happen to believe that although the casino cannot be "beaten" overall, there are times and games where it can be beaten WHILE I'M AT THE TABLE.

That's a very big difference in philosophy.

It's all in how you look at, and attack, the problem!

MVS

[Guest]

I've gambled a bit. Craps, Baccarat, Blackjack. Researched enough to know that you can't "beat the casino".

Why I'm not a believer:

1. If someone had a way to beat the casino, why would they tell anyone?

2. If you were a dealer and you knew a way to beat the casino, why would you work for minimum wage? Vegas could not find any dealers.

3. If someone tells you that you can beat the casino if you put enough time money & sweat into it, why not just get a job where there is no risk and doesn't stink like a goddam cigarette factory

4. How could anyone prove that they can and do beat the casino? There's absolutely no way to prove it. They know that, and will evade the question if asked.

5. The wizard of odds had a challenge for years where he said that he would give $20,000 to anyone that would prove that they beat the casino in the long run. Nobody collected.

You guys ever hear of a story called "Jack and the Beanstalk"?

Look buddy...Ellis won playing Blackjack everyday for 3 YEARS!!! Doesn't that tell you something...?

[Guest]

Well I think you are 99.9% right.

99.9% can't win and could never learn. It takes a tremendous effort of study, practice, and discipline. You not only need to know the game - many can do that, you also need to fully understand casino tactics and strategies, how the game is rigged and how to turn the tables. That much work and effort leaves 99.9% of people out. But about 1 tenth of 1% of players do put in the effort and do win. Then they have to know how to keep from getting barred.

Your items 4 and 5 are self cancelling. How could anyone collect from the Wizard if they have no way of proving they won even if, in fact, they did??? So, I think the Wizard made a completely safe bet there. Not surprising him being The Wizard and all.

My Total Rewards computer records show conclusively that, while a frequent player, I have not had a losing day in any of their 40 casinos in 20 years. Would the Wizard accept that evidence? No, and that is the best evidence there is.

I've played in front of large invited audiences hundreds of times over 20 years W/O a single losing exhibition. Is that proof enough?

If so, mail me the check. But I'm not going to hold my breath. Exactly what would constitute proof to the Wizard? I doubt even he could tell you.

But I'm not surprised at all that the Wizard himself can't win. Don't get me wrong - he's a great Mathematician. But it is not about Math. It is about something totally foreign to Mathematicians. It is about cheating. Casinos orchestrate. Of course they don't call it cheating but that is exactly what it is.

To win, you must know exactly how they orchestrate, how to know which tables to play and which tables to avoid, which games to leave and which to stay at as well as how to play their orchestration to your benefit.

I'm the only one who teaches that sort of thing. All other teachers go by Math and Math can't win.

I got barred from every casino in Atlantic City and then every casino in Las Vegas. Is that proof? If so, good, send me the check. And don't send it to Don Johnson by mistake.

[NonLinearBaccarat]

Ellis,

Have you been banned for playing baccarat or blackjack? Just curious.

Thanks.

[Guest]

Ellis,

Have you been banned for playing baccarat or blackjack? Just curious.

Thanks.

Back in the early '90s I had a permanent room at the Madison House in Atlantic City and playing full time and winning every day. Then a casino consortium of 14 blue coats with clip boards was assigned to follow me everywhere and right down every play I made. After 3 months of this I was brought in front of Del Webb at the Claridge who very politely barred me. The next day I found I was barred from every casino in A.C. So I moved to Vegas. It took me 18 months to get barred everywhere in Vegas. So next, I began playing MN, Tunica and the Gulf Coast full time. High rollers tell me my 8 X 11 photograph is still the front page of the AC black book. After 15 years I went back to A.C. and was immediately recognized by the pit boss. But he let me play. I won 6 shoes in a row.

In Vegas, 3 years ago I showed up for a BJ tournament I had registered for at a major casino to find that my reservation had been cancelled by the casino. But I persuaded them to either let me play or pay for my plane fare. They let me play. I lost the BJ tournament but I won 20 Bac shoes in a row.

I guess they figure I'm too old to be much of a threat to them anymore.

[NonLinearBaccarat]

Sorry for pressing... I just want to be clear. So you were banned for BJ?

I'm asking because I want to know if the casinos ban anyone for baccarat.

[Guest]

Sorry for pressing... I just want to be clear. So you were banned for BJ?

I'm asking because I want to know if the casinos ban anyone for baccarat.

No, casinos do not bar for Baccarat only.

BTW, You get "banned" from forums. You get "barred" from casinos.

[BigVic]

Sorry for pressing... I just want to be clear. So you were banned for BJ?

I'm asking because I want to know if the casinos ban anyone for baccarat.

No one, not in the history of baccarat in the USA has ever been banned from playing baccarat. The bigger you win, the bigger the limo they send to your house to bring you back to play some more.. Anybody that says different is selling you something.

[Guest]

Back in the early '90s I had a permanent room at the Madison House in Atlantic City and playing full time and winning every day. Then a casino consortium of 14 blue coats with clip boards was assigned to follow me everywhere and right down every play I made. After 3 months of this I was brought in front of Del Webb at the Claridge who very politely barred me. The next day I found I was barred from every casino in A.C. So I moved to Vegas. It took me 18 months to get barred everywhere in Vegas. So next, I began playing MN, Tunica and the Gulf Coast full time. High rollers tell me my 8 X 11 photograph is still the front page of the AC black book. After 15 years I went back to A.C. and was immediately recognized by the pit boss. But he let me play. I won 6 shoes in a row.

In Vegas, 3 years ago I showed up for a BJ tournament I had registered for at a major casino to find that my reservation had been cancelled by the casino. But I persuaded them to either let me play or pay for my plane fare. They let me play. I lost the BJ tournament but I won 20 Bac shoes in a row.

I guess they figure I'm too old to be much of a threat to them anymore.

Ellis, why not wear plastic skin masks/molds they use in Hollywood?

What limits were you playing to attract attention?

[Guest]

Ellis, why not wear plastic skin masks/molds they use in Hollywood?

What limits were you playing to attract attention?

Ha, today's casino camera's identify you no matter how you try to disguise yourself.

Disguises are a thing of books and hearsay - nobody actually ever did that.

I could also be identified by my play and hand signals. I play extremely fast - faster than any other player - and there are certain bets I was known for:

Doubling and insuring with an 11 against an Ace for instance or not splitting 8s or aces. (some of the book bets are just plain stupid.)

Look, a pair of 8s is a horrible hand. The average dealer hand is 19.2. You aren't going to beat that with an 8. If you split, you double your loss. Better to hit and hope for a 5.

To play this game you need to know the REAL arithmetic of the game - not some book author's who never actually played.

I played black in the early 90's which is equivalent to $500 chips today.

But it is not the size of your unit that alarms them. It is your win consistency.

They know if you win consistently it is only a question of time before you raise your unit.

They want you gone BEFORE you do that!

[Guest]

Look guys, there was a simple but perfectly legal trick I used in BJ to get my win consistency so high. No casino ever did figure out how I did that - even after following me around for three months. It's a simple stunt anyone can pull who has some idea of Basic Strategy. See that BJ seminar ad over on the right. You guys should be demanding a seminar - demanding to know this simple trick. I can't possibly teach you everything there is to know in BJ in one seminar. But I can sure as hell teach you this simple but foolproof stunt. ANYBODY can pull this off. You don't need to be a BJ expert.

[epstein]

Hi Ellis,

You must be make million dollar from Casino until they barred you to play.

The same like Ben Affleck doing at Hard Rock Hotel.

For beginner, any tips and trick before Casino barred player, what should we do?

Keep low profile, never win a lot?

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

You must be make million dollar from Casino until they barred you to play.

The same like Ben Affleck doing at Hard Rock Hotel.

For beginner, any tips and trick before Casino barred player, what should we do?

Keep low profile, never win a lot?

The major casinos seldom bar Players for winning anymore. It's bad for business.

Just don't continuously pick on the same casino. Once you are winning consistently, move your game around a little.

[cptcomp]

WHILE I'M AT THE TABLE. My felling exactly!

[epstein]

Hi Ellis,

I bought the manual and video for Blackjack WCB & NBJ

I read it and see the video. At he video part, I am expecting you do some demo the same like free video,

That you have for Blackjack table preparation, how to handle chips and so on.

I mean it is very easy to understand,

but at those paid video, mostly you have talks.

It is like what we read the manual.

I guess last time you become Professor / lecturer,

The best way to understand for your student by "Chalk and Talk", or "Show and Tell".

I am expecting video with Blackjack Table, Cards, Shuffle Machine and Chip.

And with story / explanation while you or the other playing the NBJ / WCB

It will be much easier for your student to digest.

Of course, if I am staying near Atlantic City, or Las Vegas

I will contact you for Casino Trip and get first hand experience with the real BJ Master.

But for those still working, when you already in bed (different time zone),

by watching that video will be GREAT.

[epstein]

Look guys, there was a simple but perfectly legal trick I used in BJ to get my win consistency so high. No casino ever did figure out how I did that - even after following me around for three months. It's a simple stunt anyone can pull who has some idea of Basic Strategy. See that BJ seminar ad over on the right. You guys should be demanding a seminar - demanding to know this simple trick. I can't possibly teach you everything there is to know in BJ in one seminar. But I can sure as hell teach you this simple but foolproof stunt. ANYBODY can pull this off. You don't need to be a BJ expert.

Hi Ellis,

I bought the manual and video for Blackjack WCB & NBJ

I read it and see the video. At he video part, I am expecting you do some demo the same like free video,

That you have for Blackjack table preparation, how to handle chips, and so on.

I mean it is very easy to understand,

but at those paid video; mostly you have TALKS

It is like what we read the manual.

I guess last time you become Professor / Lecturer,

The best way to understand for your student by "Chalk and Talk", or "Show and Tell".

I am expecting video with Blackjack Table, Cards, Shuffle Machine, and Chip.

And with story / explanation while you or the other playing the NBJ / WCB

It will be much easier for your student to digest.

Of course, if I am staying near Atlantic City, or Las Vegas

I will contact you for Casino Trip, and get first hand experience with the real BJ Master.

But for those still working, when you already in bed (different time zone),

by watching that video will be GREAT.

This type of Video is something that I am waiting for from Beat The Casino

[modnar]

Hey, do you know how the wizzard make his money? He sponsor's online casinos, that will let you win while you play fun money, and ripe you off as soon as you play for real. I only won consistenly at brick casino, playing basic strategy head to head ,hand shuffle and early surrender. That was before I learned from Ellis about clumping.

[epstein]

I believe that the case.

That Ellis teach the winning method.

Doesn't mean "wizzard of Odd" method was better.

I just expecting demo video from "Beat The Casino", that easier to understand for newbie..

[Guest]

I believe that the case.

That Ellis teach the winning method.

Doesn't mean "wizzard of Odd" method was better.

I just expecting demo video from "Beat The Casino", that easier to understand for newbie..

It would be nice if some magic video could teach you how to play BJ but the fact is BJ can't be taught that way.

It would be nice if the Wizard could teach you some mathematical formula that beats BJ. But there is none other than Basic Strategy.

And as I've said a zillion times: "Perfect Basic Strategy loses perfectly!" - guaranteed.

It would be nice if Card Counting actually worked but it is about the worst way you could possibly play. It is a guaranteed loss.

Note that Don Johnson does NOT count cards - he plays NBJ but he knows which games to play and which to avoid. Also he knows when to ask for new cards - and gets them.

The first thing you have to understand is that only about 10% of BJ games are beatable by anybody, any method.

You have to know how to identify that 10% and how to beat them.

When you see ten tens come out in a row - that game is unbeatable.

When you see a dealer turning 6s into 21s that game is unbeatable.

When a dealer is breaking less than 1 out of 4 hands that game is unbeatable.

I just listed 90% of all games.

You must have the discipline to walk away from all those games and ONLY play the remaining ten %.

No video can teach you that. A video can't teach you discipline or table selection. It can't memorize Basic Strategy for you.

You want an easy way to win?

Fine, I'll tell you my way.

1.) Only play new cards within the first hour. Those are the best (most random) cards you'll see all day.

2.) Only play head to head - That keeps random cards random and BS only works in random cards

3.) Play BS except don't split. - Splits lose overall.

4.) And only take your strongest doubles because doubles break even at best when you take all doubles.

5.) Only play 3rd base.

6.) Only play a 3 bet up as you lose progression. 123, then 134, then 146 but no higher.

7.) Most important - If you are losing 3 bet progressions - leave. Find a table where you aren't losing 3 bet progs.

That's it. If you can do those simple 7 things, you can win at BJ. But if you can't, you CAN'T win.

And no video can teach you that.

What are your questions?

Edited November 28, 2014 by Ellis

[epstein]

It would be nice if some magic video could teach you how to play BJ but the fact is BJ can't be taught that way.

It would be nice if the Wizard could teach you some mathematical formula that beats BJ. But there is none other than Basic Strategy.

And as I've said a zillion times: "Perfect Basic Strategy loses perfectly!" - guaranteed.

It would be nice if Card Counting actually worked but it is about the worst way you could possibly play. It is a guaranteed loss.

Note that Don Johnson does NOT count cards - he plays NBJ but he knows which games to play and which to avoid. Also he knows when to ask for new cards - and gets them.

The first thing you have to understand is that only about 10% of BJ games are beatable by anybody, any method.

You have to know how to identify that 10% and how to beat them.

When you see ten tens come out in a row - that game is unbeatable.

When you see a dealer turning 6s into 21s that game is unbeatable.

When a dealer is breaking less than 1 out of 4 hands that game is unbeatable.

I just listed 90% of all games.

You must have the discipline to walk away from all those games and ONLY play the remaining ten %.

No video can teach you that. A video can't teach you discipline or table selection. It can't memorize Basic Strategy for you.

You want an easy way to win?

Fine, I'll tell you my way.

1.) Only play new cards within the first hour. Those are the best (most random) cards you'll see all day.

2.) Only play head to head - That keeps random cards random and BS only works in random cards

3.) Play BS except don't split. - Splits lose overall.

4.) And only take your strongest doubles because doubles break even at best when you take all doubles.

5.) Only play 3rd base.

6.) Only play a 3 bet up as you lose progression. 123, then 134, then 146 but no higher.

7.) Most important - If you are losing 3 bet progressions - leave. Find a table where you aren't losing 3 bet progs.

That's it. If you can do those simple 7 things, you can win at BJ. But if you can't, you CAN'T win.

And no video can teach you that.

What are your questions?

First of all I really admired you, and appreciate your time to teach newbie in the Casino world (like me)

Your knowledge help me a lot; to improved my skill in playing baccarat.

Now, i just start learning Blackjack.

I have a lot of question regarding NBJ:

1) Because in Asia there is different rules of playing Blackjack, compared to the US.

The dealers deal the cards differently here. You know how in the US (e.g. Las Vegas, Atlantic City) the dealers go around the table twice and deal two cards to the players and himself/herself? Next, the dealer looks at the card under the face up top card to see if he/she has blackjack. Well, the dealers here in Singapore don't do that.

In Singapore, the dealer gets one card and everyone can take action if they wish. Only after the players have stayed/busted, DEALER take his/her second card.

So, when I first time playing BJ.

Other people (specially Grumpy Grandma always complained about my way playing BJ)

because it will effect the next card for Dealer.

Do you have any strategy for this type of BJ rules?

2) You always say that Head to Head is the best way PLAY BJ.

I am still wondering, because in Head to Head, there is not so many Open Card to see the trend.

How do you predict there is HIGH CARD or LOW CARD for the DEALER base on my card and 1 (one) Dealer's Card.

3. Casino near my place using "Continuous shuffle machine", Is it good for player using NBJ?

4. How do you choose your 'right table'?

Keep on jump from one table to another? until you find one table that BEATABLE?

How many chips that you prepared to "find the right one" based on your experience?

5. I have get impression that BJ is your speciality,

it will be faster to get CHIPS from DEALER, and Baccarat just to fill your time.

Because BJ only good for Morning and early afternoon session. but baccarat you can play anytime.

But, why you charge much more for Baccarat Private Forum access, manuals, videos?

If in fact BJ could be better game to play?

*Thank you for your kind reply, Ellis.

[Guest]

It would be nice if some magic video could teach you how to play BJ but the fact is BJ can't be taught that way.

It would be nice if the Wizard could teach you some mathematical formula that beats BJ. But there is none other than Basic Strategy.

And as I've said a zillion times: "Perfect Basic Strategy loses perfectly!" - guaranteed.

It would be nice if Card Counting actually worked but it is about the worst way you could possibly play. It is a guaranteed loss.

Note that Don Johnson does NOT count cards - he plays NBJ but he knows which games to play and which to avoid. Also he knows when to ask for new cards - and gets them.

The first thing you have to understand is that only about 10% of BJ games are beatable by anybody, any method.

You have to know how to identify that 10% and how to beat them.

When you see ten tens come out in a row - that game is unbeatable.

When you see a dealer turning 6s into 21s that game is unbeatable.

When a dealer is breaking less than 1 out of 4 hands that game is unbeatable.

I just listed 90% of all games.

You must have the discipline to walk away from all those games and ONLY play the remaining ten %.

No video can teach you that. A video can't teach you discipline or table selection. It can't memorize Basic Strategy for you.

You want an easy way to win?

Fine, I'll tell you my way.

1.) Only play new cards within the first hour. Those are the best (most random) cards you'll see all day.

2.) Only play head to head - That keeps random cards random and BS only works in random cards

3.) Play BS except don't split. - Splits lose overall.

4.) And only take your strongest doubles because doubles break even at best when you take all doubles.

5.) Only play 3rd base.

6.) Only play a 3 bet up as you lose progression. 123, then 134, then 146 but no higher.

7.) Most important - If you are losing 3 bet progressions - leave. Find a table where you aren't losing 3 bet progs.

That's it. If you can do those simple 7 things, you can win at BJ. But if you can't, you CAN'T win.

And no video can teach you that.

What are your questions?

Ellis, I don't play BJ but this is interesting.

I am familiar with the basic strategy chart, which probably 95% on this forum are as well.

Question - What do you consider to be the only strongest doubles worth doing?

Also, the casino I play at uses 8 deck shuffle machines. Would these even work with your strategies above?

Do you recommend playing one hand at a time?

Ellis, why would any casino agree to a bunch of terms against high rollers like Phil Ivey and the Don J. pro?

If I was running the show, I wouldn't give any special terms to any player. Basically, you get the same game as the one on the floor.

[Guest]

Ellis, I don't play BJ but this is interesting.

I am familiar with the basic strategy chart, which probably 95% on this forum are as well.

Question - What do you consider to be the only strongest doubles worth doing?

Also, the casino I play at uses 8 deck shuffle machines. Would these even work with your strategies above?

Do you recommend playing one hand at a time?

Ellis, why would any casino agree to a bunch of terms against high rollers like Phil Ivey and the Don J. pro?

If I was running the show, I wouldn't give any special terms to any player. Basically, you get the same game as the one on the floor.

If you double according to your BS chart (perfect Basic Strategy) my study of thousands of actual casino doubles clearly demonstrates that at best, you'll only win half your doubles. This is because your BS chart does not consider the effect of clumping.

But you can get your double down hit rate up to about 90%:

When you double you are looking for a 10.

Therefore only double when highs are running right up to your hit card.

Don't ever double when lows are running. Presto - 90% double hit rate.

Likewise, never split. The same data base clearly demontrates that splits lose big time overall - even 8s and Aces.

The fewer hands in the game the better your odds so it is stupid to play multiple hands. Head to head is best.

Casinos have to give heavy hitters considerations to get their business.

It is the casinos themselves that promote business by talking about these heavy hitters.

Yes Don Johnson won 15 million but he's not ahead 15 million because they don't mention his losses. By his own words that 15 million does not include losses which are close to 15 million. Now the casinos pay him to do promotions for them.

8 deck shuffle machines are ok - just don't play continuous shufflers (CSMs)

90% of BJ games are unbeatable. The trick is knowing how to identify the winning 10%.

Epstein - Your game there I call European rules. There is an advantage to it. The 3rd base player or any head to head player has more control over breaking the dealer.

Edited December 4, 2014 by Ellis

[Guest]

Epstein, table jumping is very amateurish.

New cards are nearly always beatable with NBJ 3rd base strategy.

But you never simply take an empty seat.

Study the game a little:

This can be done very quickly:

Are highs and lows coming out mixed (random) - NBJ 3rd base

Or are the cards coming out in runs of lows and runs of highs (clumped) - NBJ 1st base

Is the dealer breaking 1 in 4 or better?

Is the dealer getting too many first card 10s? Normal is 4 in 13.

Don't even look at tables that already have 4 or more players.

Don't look at tables where 1st and 3rd seats are already taken.

First is the first player dealt to. Third is the last player dealt to.

All other seats are losers.

Is the dealer breaking with a low up? or mostly with a 10 up?

Both are OK as long as you play your hand accordingly.

Don't use BS to hit. Go by the last cards dealt before your decision.

If the last card would have helped your hand, fine, hit or double.

But if the last card would have hurt your hand, stand.

This includes your own hit cards.

This will give you a much better hands won % than BS.

[Guest]

There was more than $40,000 bet on the table

because we had just had a run of dealer breaks.

The dealer had a 6 up.

I was playing 3rd base in a 4 player high stakes room in A.C.

Every card on the table was low.

The First base drew a 10 for a pat hand.

The second player drew a 10 for a pat hand.

The 3rd player drew a 10 for a pat hand.

I've got a pair of 3s.

So I signal emphatically, STAND.

The other players screams were cut off when the dealer immediately dealt herself 2 tens and BROKE!