Luck

[brad01]

People say gambling is gambling and you cant beat the maths.

The maths says 50 / 50 minus commission.

People here know they can get better than 50/50 with knowledge and practise.

here is a concept - everything in life is a gamble.

Crossing the road.

driving your car.

it is all a risk that can be calculated if you know all the variables.

Even if you do things can go your way or they can go against tou. Luck comes into it

You make decisions in your life based on what you know about the risk involved. Whether things go your way or not you never know. Thats luck.

ever been driving and get all the red lights? Ever been drivjng and get all the green lights?

I dont see gambling any different

So then you make your decisions based on what you know and you take the risk.

Can we learn to preduct the waves of luck to our advantage?

I believe so

This is all based on wolfats concept of wL tracking.

To practise this you dont need a betting strategy or money management just bet what you feel and flat bet. Record your wins and losses. When you see a pattern of luck try to predict whether you should bet for real or not.

This can be applied to any existing betting strategy.

how do you know your next bet is not the first of 10 losses due to simply bad luck.

in conparism how do you know your next bet is not the first of the biggest winning streak you could imagine or the biggest back and forth between wins and losses you could imagine

Ever done everything right and things still dont go your way?

You kust dont know

[William Looi]

yes you are right

[wolfat]

Brad, thanks to keep alive the whole W/L concept. every good player should take it into serious consideration.

I add one thing I recently discovered.

Actually Im playing a fixed system where you make 3 consequential bets on a fixed pattern.

I track the results of these three bets.

IE bet 1 won 3 times, bet 2 won 1 time, bet 3 won 1 time.

I bet for real the bet that has won more.

you will be amazed to see how this usually works well!

you can apply this concept to any system betting on fixed patterns.

[brad01]

I have to reread what you said and understand it - doesn't look too hard.

I especially liked the discussion from another member on another thread about this where he said he heard some pro blackjack players play in high limit room till they win a certain amount and then they will go back to low stake tables and play till they lose a certain amount because they know they cant sustain a high win rate forever.

Once they lose in low limits they will go back and play for high stakes again.

It really is an amazing concept and it does not conflict with any system or strategy - it can only improve it.

Sports betting is probably something where this is more relevant

Sport betters gain an edge by keeping stats and using many variables to make their decision.

Even then they can still lose and luck on the day comes into it.

They go through losing streaks and winning streaks where one minute they just cant seem to predict the result no matter how hard they try and then the next they cant lose.

That's the waves of luck we have to try and ride to our advantage.

I will use the weekend MMA event in Melbourne as an example

Ronda Rousey vs Holly Holm

12 wins in a row, no losses.

One could say she was due for a loss

Rousey has never been a striker until she came to MMA, Holly Holm has always been a striker.

Who better to beat Rousey than a good striker as she had never faced one before and where better for an upset than in Australia when most events are in Las Vegas or the states.

Looking back now it was nearly predictable - everything pointed to her luck running out and an upset coming especially in an away event.

[brad01]

The more I am doing this the more I can see many advantages to it.

If you record win / losses as per below for example:

w(L)wLw(w)wLw(L)wL(L)wLLLwww

I record paper trade bets in brackets to show they are not real

You have an exact idea what your hit rate is at any one time which is very important

You have an idea of the distribution of your wins / losses - wLwL or wwLwwL or wLLwLL or wwwww or LLLLL

In that way you can see if you are losing far more than you are winning well then don't bet

if its wLwL then bet a slight progrsssion if you want

if its wwwLwww etc then flat bet or use slight up as you win to take advantage of good streak

Start to record how often you see a bad streak of LLL or more then you can predict when a streak like that is coming and flat bet / paper bet till it comes.

Record your winning sessions and losing sessions the same and do the same thing with your sessions

If you expect to lose 1 session in 4 then lower your win goal till you do but continue to play on paper as normal to see if you would have incurred that losing streak.

The greatest thing with this is that you can record on paper the wL ratio for free without betting and decide when to bet for real or not

This is the power we have on this side of the table we can sit back and record stats for free until we see a situation where we have better than 50/50 chance to win - but its only an advantage if you use it.

Results are accurate for a very fixed method of betting and it requires discipline to bet on paper as though you would bet for real rather than just guess any result as you know its not real money - that's not gonna help you.

[wolfat]

Brad, I agree100% but, IMO, virtual bets does not effect too much your WL chart on the long term. I bet the minimum with expected losses. YOU MUST BET to fill in a result in your LW chart to be really effective. It doesnt matter the value but you must place a bet on table to modify your personal permanence, thats your life time WL chart.

[brad01]

Well I have not got the same experience as you in this theory as have not been doing it long but if you are disciplined enough to record bets as though they were real as though you normally play would they not be as good as a real bet?

Just my logic thinks they should be?

Thanks

[Wendel]

I think that if you don't put money on it , it doesn't count.

It's too easy to say I will bet nothing on this outcome, because you are risking nothing

and it isn't really gambling.

[brad01]

I hear what you are saying but if you play a certain way using certain triggers to tell you when to bet or not bet then isn't a virtual bet the same as a real bet

If you are disciplined enough to say this is the way I would bet with real money then isn't it the same?

I get that its hard to do as its always easier when you don't bet real money but where do you draw the line?

If wolfat bets low to avoid losses in his wL cycle isn't that the same as switching from low units to virtual as from high to low?

Time will tell as this is new for me.

If virtual are not accurate then I wont use them. At this point I don't know . I tend to say they are as good if you use them right.

Will let you know how it goes

[wolfat]

Betting real money implies rights (collect winnings) and obligations (lose money).

Virtual bets doesn't have any...

This is MY opinion, based on experience.

I think that if you don't put money on it , it doesn't count.

It's too easy to say I will bet nothing on this outcome, because you are risking nothing

and it isn't really gambling.

[wolfat]

Betting real money implies rights (collect winnings) and obligations (lose money).

Virtual bets doesn't have any...

This is MY opinion, based on experience.

I think that if you don't put money on it , it doesn't count.

It's too easy to say I will bet nothing on this outcome, because you are risking nothing

and it isn't really gambling.

[brad01]

Fair enough I wont argue with experience.

That is the most valuable thing in this game.

Actually you were already probably an experienced player and member here when I joined and started playing wolfat so its good to still have you around to discuss this with.

As you know though everyone has to find their own way of doing things in this game and what's right for one isn't always right for others.

Will let you know how it goes for me - I'm playing pattern break method a set way and so use wL tracking with virtual bets to decide when to bet and not bet.

[wolfat]

...as I told before, this my personal opinion.

if you arr doing well your own way, just keep on, as you said, everyone needs to find his own way.

[brad01]

Heres a theory.

If you play a certain way all the time and it nets you 50% hit rate or better and you lose a virtual bet your next bet has to be even better than than what it already was?

I found its working for me