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yeah I seen it at blackorchid

I didn't notice what it favours after card change

Black orchid I believe to be mostly OTBL at any time

Sometimes have some S40 and S40M1 shoes

What I notice is if you record the trends of the blue cards or red cards you can find patterns and continual biases that repeat - OTBL stays OTBL etc etc

I personally do not put a lot of time into recording this or into studying card prep and table selection

I base all my decisions on the shoe at hand

I do observe the above and make mental notes which may influence my bets but primarily I try to adjust to the shoe at hand

I mostly flat bet and yes I do stay ahead of the game flat betting

If your hit rate is above 50% then its a no brainer

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Ellis seemed to feel that the "shoe at hand" after the card prep would usually be less streaky and more suitable for OTBL4 play. The games would get increasingly streakier as they were reshuffled and reused. Ellis only played in B&M casinos though. I haven't played enough "later"  games to be able to offer a personal opinion.

i am not sure if current shuffling technology can alter the choppy to streaky progression. 

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Then if that's the case all you need to do is bet 1's go to 2 flat bet and you will come out ahead

Can you see patterns in the 1's ? You said they were sporadic so it may be hard to find patterns to predict when a 1 will stay 1

When the 1's go to 2 do they stay 2 more often than not or do they go more

If they go more then do they stay 3 or go more?

If they don't go more then what you have is OTBL dominant

If they go more then you may have streaky shoe

If you can see consistency in the 1's then just bet that and if you win then keep doing it

Remember to PISS as well as KISS !

(Play It Safe Stupid!)

And why not join the forum

We have a lot more there and theres a lot of great guys there and good players

 

 

 

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IMO there is no consistency in any event count, only thing that i have noticed is that 1s are usually average. And also there is no casino that is always low in some event. You cant just sit there and play s40m1 cuz you saw that that casino is low on 2s....take 50 shoes and you will have 50% 1s 25% 2s .......  so that casino is not always low on 2s you can just find shoes that favors to s40m1. So that means that you need to follow the shoe. No mechanical system that works, you cant sit there and say i will play this. And yes you damn need it to KISS, just follow the shoe, but sure you will lose some cuz they will keep changing, but like we said we need little bit over 50 %. And also damn DISCIPLINE, only thing that keep pulling me back.

 

Also too bad that PJ, Zebra, OZ are not active, this forum is not same w/o them.......Norm RIP.....what a legend.

Edited by Baccman
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On 5/14/2016 at 10:49 AM, Baccman said:

Shoes at dublinbet are ALMOST always low or average at 1s. I have played many times at the night when they had 7,8,9 1s mostly sporadic.

 

Also not many shoes where LC & MC will handle whole shoe.

Whenever I hear sporadic1's , I start thinking OTBL4, but if they  of they are mostly on 1 side. I start wondering about SS or F2. By the time I see it is usually too late.

LC and MC only have to work until you reach a stop win and have a nice profit.

I think that playing a whole shoe and coming out ahead has become a pipe dream.

If I am still playing at the end of a shoe it probably means that I am losing .

I also think that NOR is designed to get you to the "sweet spot" in the shoe and get you out before the "sweet spot" dissipates. Whether it always succeeds in this is a whole other story.

Edited by Wendel
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yes I agree wendel

I am playing targeting 1 unit per shoe this week due to limited time and I have not lost this week and my hit rate is in the 90%'s

i'm only targeting very high% bets

in the end if you target more bets your hit rate may drop and your actually worse off

gotta keep that % up there and if that means less bets so be it

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you are right baccman there is no consistency in counts.

LC may be only LC until you bet against it

MC may only be MC until you bet with it

or other way round

you have to find an opportunity you know from statistics wins more times than it loses and stick to that.

even then you have to pick when it will not win compared to when it should

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3 hours ago, brad01 said:

yes I agree wendel

I am playing targeting 1 unit per shoe this week due to limited time and I have not lost this week and my hit rate is in the 90%'s

i'm only targeting very high% bets

in the end if you target more bets your hit rate may drop and your actually worse off

gotta keep that % up there and if that means less bets so be it

Good Luck with that. How many units do you need to win ?

 

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3 hours ago, brad01 said:

Depends on the unit size.

If its large enough 2 units a day at 90% + is ok

Unfortunately that way due to time constraints but in actual fact not losing can put you further ahead than winning more and then having a losing session. 

I understand that you are playing to win i unit per shoe

I meant to ask what your goal is in total units @ 1 per shoe, but I think I am not going to get a straight answer, so let's forget it..

 

 

Edited by Wendel
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Hi Wendel I did not read it properly that's all

 need to win another 50 units to be able to get to the unit size that I am chasing to play with at this point

I have won 58 units already playing the way I am

This is all based on my level up approach of base x 10 which I posted on the forum.

I have completed this once and now looking to do it again

once complete that will be 100 x my base unit size

So I'm actually more than half way there

I was well on the way and then had a fall (bad losing streak)

But I have recovered

With the limited time I have available this is the best way that I can play where I am not incurring losses and actually a 90% + hit rate at the moment.

In terms of unit size lets just say that if I achieve the 100 x base and can win consistently with that unit size I will do it full time

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