Operation: Crush Baccarat

[Phelps83]

First and foremost this is my first post in the forums. Myself and a friend have been working on beating baccarat for about a year (we did take a break for quite a while over last summer so honestly we have only been at it at the tables for 5 or 6 months). So lets start from the beginning, when it comes to casino games we had mainly been poker players. Then about 5 years ago we finally had casinos approved in our state . We remained poker players for a while but both of us worked jobs and did not rely on poker as a main source of poker. I think we both had burned our selves out at poker after years of playing and eventually stated to play pit games(craps, BJ ext...). Obviously we were both losers at the games overall. The one day he had mentioned playing baccarat, i had never played it before and did not know how the game worked, all i remember from the first session was how i thought it was stupid that when i bet the banker i would literally get paid with quarters(because of the 5 percent commission). So he originally brought the idea of what if we played baccarat and just bet the drop, we use the terms drop and chop, i believe it is referred to on here as 1's and 2's. So a chop would be 1, drop would be 2. I had played a couple times and started winning right away, my unit size was 25 and i was averaging 5 or 6 unit wins each session. I proceeded to win 15 out of my first 16 sessions, and the one loss was only a couple units. I have been around long enough to know that you just do go on win streaks like that at the casino, so i felt like we were really on to something. Also i pretty much flat betting, if i did press it was after a win not a loss. During that run i was on my friend was also experiencing similar results. Then i made the mistake of playing on a day where i did not feel very good and as i said, i work full time so you can understand i was burning the candle at both ends, but i wanted to know if this was a legit income source. So anyway i went on a day that i should not have and had a big loss, i got stubborn and stayed way to long, then went back a day or two later and had a similar loss. That's where the long break came in because i was discouraged. So we have been back at it for a couple months now, i tested a few different strategy's with terrible results, then i finally went back to the strategy we first used because it was working and i am back on an upswing, i do not know why i tried messing with a strategy that worked. That being said it is not a perfect strategy. Relying solely on drops or twos can get you in trouble at times. So lately we have both been using the drop as our guideline but we follow the shoe a bit more now. The question we are really asking ourselves is what is an acceptable loss and how many units should the average win be. I think the win goal should be around 3 to 6 units, the problem is one big loss could erase several wins. Also, lately if i get up 3 units real quick, like winning the first 3 hands, i play till i lose one hand then leave. So if i lose the next hand i leave up two units. The reason i do that is too many times i got up a few units right away, kept playing and found myself going on a big downswing and stuck there for hours, i am sure we all know that feeling. Also, do you need to stay and go for big wins sometimes to offset potential big losses. I feel like this is where the game is won and lost, you can create any strat you want but your bet is essentially always gonna be 50/50, so we have to work on what we can actually control. Anyway, any thoughts would be appreciated and i will keep everyone updated with our progress.

[wolfat]

Hi Phelps, welcome to our forum.

I read with interest your post, especially the last part where you mention stop win and loss.

I think they are pretty reasonable BUT require a disciplined player, on the long term.

Remember that your stop loss must be in relation with your avg. winning. 

IE, if you win 3 units 8 times out of 10, thats pretty doable, your stop loss shouldn't be more than 4 units, this because you need 

a return from your efforts (so +24 -8 = +16 units).

So +3/2 units with a stop loss of 3/4 is a good starting point. if you analyze your wins and losses (make a graph of w/l same as P/B and look for any patterns there) you could grab some more units or, at least, skip some losses.

There would be more on this subject but you must be a premium member to interact deeply with me or other pros, here at BTC.

I love the idea of hit n run, I will talk about that in my master class on 27th.

A

[ECD]

On 21/02/2018 at 2:23 PM, Phelps83 said:

First and foremost this is my first post in the forums. Myself and a friend have been working on beating baccarat for about a year (we did take a break for quite a while over last summer so honestly we have only been at it at the tables for 5 or 6 months). So lets start from the beginning, when it comes to casino games we had mainly been poker players. Then about 5 years ago we finally had casinos approved in our state . We remained poker players for a while but both of us worked jobs and did not rely on poker as a main source of poker. I think we both had burned our selves out at poker after years of playing and eventually stated to play pit games(craps, BJ ext...). Obviously we were both losers at the games overall. The one day he had mentioned playing baccarat, i had never played it before and did not know how the game worked, all i remember from the first session was how i thought it was stupid that when i bet the banker i would literally get paid with quarters(because of the 5 percent commission). So he originally brought the idea of what if we played baccarat and just bet the drop, we use the terms drop and chop, i believe it is referred to on here as 1's and 2's. So a chop would be 1, drop would be 2. I had played a couple times and started winning right away, my unit size was 25 and i was averaging 5 or 6 unit wins each session. I proceeded to win 15 out of my first 16 sessions, and the one loss was only a couple units. I have been around long enough to know that you just do go on win streaks like that at the casino, so i felt like we were really on to something. Also i pretty much flat betting, if i did press it was after a win not a loss. During that run i was on my friend was also experiencing similar results. Then i made the mistake of playing on a day where i did not feel very good and as i said, i work full time so you can understand i was burning the candle at both ends, but i wanted to know if this was a legit income source. So anyway i went on a day that i should not have and had a big loss, i got stubborn and stayed way to long, then went back a day or two later and had a similar loss. That's where the long break came in because i was discouraged. So we have been back at it for a couple months now, i tested a few different strategy's with terrible results, then i finally went back to the strategy we first used because it was working and i am back on an upswing, i do not know why i tried messing with a strategy that worked. That being said it is not a perfect strategy. Relying solely on drops or twos can get you in trouble at times. So lately we have both been using the drop as our guideline but we follow the shoe a bit more now. The question we are really asking ourselves is what is an acceptable loss and how many units should the average win be. I think the win goal should be around 3 to 6 units, the problem is one big loss could erase several wins. Also, lately if i get up 3 units real quick, like winning the first 3 hands, i play till i lose one hand then leave. So if i lose the next hand i leave up two units. The reason i do that is too many times i got up a few units right away, kept playing and found myself going on a big downswing and stuck there for hours, i am sure we all know that feeling. Also, do you need to stay and go for big wins sometimes to offset potential big losses. I feel like this is where the game is won and lost, you can create any strat you want but your bet is essentially always gonna be 50/50, so we have to work on what we can actually control. Anyway, any thoughts would be appreciated and i will keep everyone updated with our progress.

Jimmie Bacc...When did you change your "Username"?

Paragraphs...Paragraphs...Old people need "PARAGRAPHS"...

[Phelps83]

Im actually 34, i know its long and i apologize. I thought this was a serious forum, I have been on the fence about joining for a while and comments like that make me think its not worth it. I know its 2018 but damn i am sick of trolls. 

Edited February 26, 2018 by Phelps83

[Phelps83]

I want to retract my last statement, i owe oz an apology. I completely misinterpreted his comment. When i read it a second time i saw that it wasn't at all like i first read it, i was way off. Im not sure if any of you are familiar with the "two plus two"forums,  they used to be good as far as poker is concerned but it just turned into a troll fest. I thought thats where this was headed.

Any way, i will work on my paragraphs. I will have an update in a few hours as far as bac. 

Quote

 

 

[JimmyBaccarat]

1 hour ago, Phelps83 said:

Im actually 34, i know its long and i apologize. I thought this was a serious forum, I have been on the fence about joining for a while and comments like that make me think its not worth it. I know its 2018 but damn i am sick of trolls. 

Welcome to the forum Phelps and don't mind him. He is just busting on me because I have a tendency to be "wordy" when I post in the Premium Forum. Me... I write one long post similiar to yours. Oz, well he writes 20 short ones! Same amount! LOL

While the forum is serious when it comes to Baccarat, there is also a "comaraderie" that develops over time and you get to know the "cast of Characters."

Remember, "All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy." And since a forum, by its nature, is a discussion long distance, well, we have a tendency to poke fun at each other sometimes.

However, when you have a question, thought, idea (hey, isn't thoughts and ideas the same thing ), want to discuss your play or whatever, there is no lack of help by the Premium members even if sometimes you don't like what you are reading (but, it is all done with the best intentions for you in mind).

So, yes, Oz is not a troll and neither am I. 

But, regardless of what you think about Oz, myself or any of the other members in the Premium forum, (and this is not a sales pitch as I don't make one red cent off of what I am about to say) if for no other reason to join the forum - do so for access to the Stategic Baccarat Interface (SBI). Even if I was put off by Oz's busting my chops, I would still be a member of the forum for no other reason than to have access to the SBI.

Why? Because I can input a shoe and play it back hand by hand (it does some other things too) not knowing what the next result will be. This exponentially increases my learning curve.

Personally, I have input about 800 shoes. I am not going to remember them all from a half year ago. Therefore, when I select a shoe to play, it is like playing it for the first time. If you are honest with yourself, not knowing is a huge advantage because we learn from making mistakes and not from hindsight. "Oh, I was going to bet on Player." No, you bet on banker and missed that hand. Why? you also don't get to see how a situation develops before it happens. But if you want, you also can see the whole shoe if you want when doing research.

That is just a couple of the reasons why being able to use SBI is a good idea.

And if you don't have shoes for yourself, well use mine from the Sands Casino, use the over 500 that have been input by DannyBoy, CT70 and others in 5Dimes. There are others who have input shoes for many other casinos as well. SBI is relatively new to Beat the Casino and is still being tweaked and populated as members input shoes that are not RNG shoes, computer generated shoes or shoes input from a book. And if you can't find or don't like what is there, input your own like I did and still do.

I have said it before, even if I don't post or read any other posts on the forum, I would still have a membership just so I could have access to SBI. I literally use it almost everyday.

I know you don't know me from Adam, but, I have a similiar background. I don't gamble. I invest. I started to play poker a few years after the Moneymaker boom and was profitable but did not see how it would take me to where I wanted to go in life. The "gods" introduced me to Baccarat and I started to take it seriously around September of last year. I was chronicalling my journey in the Premium forum. Now here is the thing.... I started from not even knowing how to play Baccarat. I managed to work my way up to 3 untis/shoe from what I learned from the quidance of others at no further cost to me other than my own work. But, even at 3 units, which might not seem like much, but at a $25 mimumum table, that is $75 a shoe which takes about an hour and a half and it is scalable!!!. Can yo say $50, $100, etc... Sure as hell beats playing $1/2 or even $2/5, I don't need anywhere near the bankroll as I need for poker and it is a steady rate of return. 

Ok. Ok. Stop!!!

Yes, I am old. And us old people like like Oz and myself have nothing better to do than play Baccarat and write on forums.  Actually, I wrote all of this for Oz's benefit so he gets confused! 

 

Best of luck to you Phelps!

Jim

 

 

 

[ECD]

Memo to self: If Jimmy Bacc ever writes a Novel...Do not attempt to read. The likelihood of me living long enough to finish it is right up there with the likelihood of Ellis playing $5K chips.

 

Looking on the bright side...At least you use paragraphs. I should be thankful for small mercies. 

[Phelps83]

  Thanks jimmybaccaratt for the words. Honestly, my boss was really pissing me off today and i was in a confrontational mood. So when i read oz's comment i got was i was looking for. Despite the fact that i completely misread it and misinterpreted the intention, i was totally off base.

  So that leads me to the next part, i have been at my job five and a half years. Up until this point it has given me pretty much what i needed it to financially. No i wasn't living the high life but i basically never had to worry about paying my rent. Well in 2017 i made about 6 percent less then i did in 2016. Which i can deal with, but due to my boss changing some things with our taxes this year and how we pay our taxes(by the way, small company with only 4 people total), i am taking an instant 10 percent pay cut this year, and thats from 2017's pay so i potentially stand to make 15 to 20 percent less then i did in 2016. That i have a problem with, this far in to a job i should not be going backwards.  

 If there was a year to take a shot at something like baccarat as a source of income, this is the year. I am not married and i do not have children so i have a little more ability to take a shot like this then most people my age. 

 On to the actual game, i think when i first posted, i was somewhere along the lines of a 7 consecutive win streak for about a 27 units. This weekend was not great, i took about a 15 unit loss saturday, and a 12 unit loss sunday. Now on saturday i was actually up 4 units which is usually the mark when i considering leaving but since i had the whole day i decided to go for a bigger win to make up for the eventual losses that will come, well that cost me about 18 units. Then sunday was just a bit of a rough day, never could get anything going. 

I am considering a 10 unit stop loss with a very strict strat if i get down 5 units. And days when im up 4 units, play till i lose one. Now, even on all those days i may consider to keep playing but i am going to track the results as if that is how i played. Then i will track the results if i stay. The question is how many times once i get down ten units do i climb out of it. I know its possible cause i have done it in the past. But i have to consider all factors right now because i am not a robot, i am quite busy at this present moment with activities so time, mood all have to factor into the equation i can not play super long sessions all the time. But over all i feel i am very disciplined with bac, If i have one leak it is i try to force a pattern in the shoe rather then letting it happen, although i dont do it that often i have found myself to do it a few times.

So over my last 27 sessions i am down about 1.75 bets. While those are not great results i feel i am getting closer. And if you factor in commission, which i know you cant ignore, i am on the plus side of 50/50 over those sessions. Paying commission sucks, where i play there are 6 tables which are usually all full in the evenings. 4 commission tables and two non commission. Problem with the non commission tables is they move way to slow most of the time, i swear everyone plays chicken. Then once one person puts a bet out they all follow, i just want to scream, what the hell are you waiting for, your all betting banker and you are all betting all the dragon side bets, quit pretending like you may do something different. 

I know that was long, just wanted to give a little more back story. Im gonna keep grinding and i will update soon.

 

 

[ECD]

See...that wasn't so hard...Paragraphs are "The Boss"...LOL

 

Nah...Your post wasn't long...just wait until you see one of Jimmy's "War and Peace" efforts. I barely tolerate Jimmy because his posts are the only sure-fire cure for my insomnia.

 

You may have guessed by now that we don't take ourselves too seriously here except when talking Baccarat and Baccarat scammers. 

 

Welcome to BTC...and one quick word of advice should you be contacted by "Whispering Mike Sullivan" to join him in one of his playing sessions...I'll give you the tip...Industrial strength earmuffs are the go.