MVSeahog

For what it's worth for those reading the MVS+ thread (this one), I'll be going back to the 1,1,2 series of wagers to start the shoes on Monday in an attempt to avoid those damaging -8 and -10 type starts in the first column when the shoe just starts off bad. The profit taking will be slightly smaller initially but the thinking here is that you can recover from a pair of 3 bet losers (-8 total) much easier than a -12 start running 1,2,3 as the wager plan. Once the shoe gets moving along and assuming the ability to take the profit in the second or third columns, there may be room to "open up the betting" in the last column should the opportunity arise. As usual, a running SAP count will be maintained and if the numbers warrant it, a change to any of the NU SAP plans can be done on the fly. I'll have my usual long winded report on Monday night after the wife spends her "birthday free plays" at the casino. MVS

winner, I've played on a "mechanical baccarat machine" in Macau and was just blown away with it. If the Starship Enterprise had a bac machine on it, this would have been it. The precision and fluid moves of the entire mechanism was really something to see and evidently it was fully accepted by the Asian players as each of the machines was packed full at each station and then some. I initially went over just to watch it perform, but once I could actually get a seat in, I really enjoyed it. For those of you who have never seen one, they use real cards in real time. The only thing missing is the dealer! It is amazing to watch. I would love to see one show up near me in any of the casinos. I'd play on it for sure. MVS PS Congratulations on your wins!

Well, here's the latest saga of the "Moved to Green" thread and MVS+ all wrapped up into one neat package! When the wife has free play and food coupons, she wants to go to the casino for V-Day and there's no way I'm allowed to say NO! I'm debating on counting this as an MVS+ shoe play as it started MVS but finished RD1 in both shoes. Sometimes you just have to change when it's not going as planned, that's for sure. I think that's 80% of the battle. Being able to at least change to something that may work when your primary plan is falling apart for whatever reason. To start, we get to the casino around 5pm or so. Get settled in and watch the recently installed "Zig-Zag Girls" in the roped off Blackjack area for a few minutes while watching the baccarat tables for ANY play at all. Nope, nobody there again, and it's Saturday night. Oh well, I can sit down, get my homework done and maybe somebody will come in to help start the shoe. After killing 10 minutes or so with idle chatter, buying in for a grand, filling out three cards, I figure I'll get it started by net betting both sides at $10 a side to get my requisite three starting hands in. I'll be wagering 1,2,1 Skip tonight. So, here we go, Shoe #1 (test shoe #168) and the first bet out loses. In fact the first three lose. I hate it when that happens. Down $100 and it's only the 7th hand of the shoe. Skip to a win and continue on. Gets back to zero at hand 15. Back to -5 at the bottom of the first column. 3's and 4's high, 1's and 2's low. Watch for OTB4L but watch for low 1's, just in case I want to change to RD1 (my second favorite). Second column waffles around not doing much but finishes at -8. Very weak shoe still low on 1's and obviously not going anywhere so I moved to RD1 to start the third column. Of course, the first RD1 bet loses and already I'm wondering if I made the right decision. OTB4L looks like a stronger play but those 1's are keeping me in check for that play. Only one losing streak of 3 in the third column and it finishes that at -1. This is a great trend so we'll continue with it. The fourth column starts at zero and finishes at +7. I'll take it. The odd thing? Nobody else ever showed up at the table and it's almost 7pm on a Saturday night. Second shoe is the same. Absolutely nobody playing in a casino chock full of people tonight! I net bet the first three hands like normal to start the shoe and then jump in. I must be having bad karma or something tonight. Immediately it runs P11331. The dreaded 1331 sequence, the bain of MVS+. Arrrrgh! OK, so I'm at -8 at hand 10. Why must this be this difficult? Gotta change to something as MVS has completely failed me tonight. RD1 was doing well in the last shoe and if the 3's keep up, I can survive. Switched to RD1 for hand 11 and got the win! Hey. The first good thing to happen so far. First column finishes at -6. Second column finishes at -2, another good trend. Third column has a beautiful run of 10 Players before giving back a few units and I quit the shoe at +6. I can't post the finish of the shoe as I sat there for another 10 minutes waiting for anybody to show up and play. Nothing. Absolutely dead at the table! The only other player to show was that odd guy who only bets when I bet. When I left he left. He simply will not make a bet on his own, period! I colored up and went out side for a walk around the parking lot for awhile to get some fresh air and plan for the next shoe. Might even have to START the shoe under RD1 as it seems to be working much better than MVS tonight. About 15 minutes of cold Florida swamp air and I see a huge contingent of Asians moving into the casino front entrance. This is good. Now we'll get some players at the tables. I casually follow them in and all the women head for the slot machines and then men head for the poker tables!!!! WTF??? Must not be my night to play or something. I monitored those tables for another hour or so and other than a few drunks who couldn't get on to a blackjack table dropping a few chips on Player, there were no other players for baccarat up until we left around 11:15pm that night. I'm thinking I need to head to Tampa or something as the times we've been there, I've seen many more baccarat tables in play. So, to sum this up, the MVS play didn't go well and it needed RD1 to save it in both shoes. I'll still count these as wins for the MVS system monitor/spreadsheet as technically they were started playing MVS but part of the MVS system is to have a backup for when it collapses and tonight, it collapsed fully and hit -8 in both shoes before I made the switch. As an anecdote, the relief dealer in the second shoe failed to collect commission for 17 Banker unit wins!! It dawned on her around hand 54 in the second shoe when she looked at my commission box and it had all of $12.50 in it! MVS Shoe #1 P1311124331 P1121111214131 B32531413 P11111344 Shoe#2 P113312121311 B11221111532 B1(10)1121x (not finished)

Audio, Well, I guess I just kind of assumed that the "Moved to Green Today" thread was pretty much the one with all of the information for "MVS+" as we know it. You can also see how it slowly changed a bit as it got more real world play under its belt. You can see how it's played and more importantly WHY some bets were made, at least from my perspective. Next live casino run is scheduled for Saturday the 13th and I'd like to at least get three full shoes in. As we won't be on any schedule that day, it should happen. MVS

PJ, I'll check with the boss and see if they want to have a separate MVS+ thread made up. MVS

OK, let's test these two out for future reference. This one is "Attached Inline" according to the directions. And this one will be "inserted" using an external link: MVS

This is a momentous occasion. Well, kind of. It marks the 150th shoe tested/played with MVS+. This will be long because I’m in a chatty mood and I want to try to explain the how and why of my play on this shoe. If it makes sense to you, we’re BOTH in big trouble I think!! Anyway, the wifey and friends decide late last night that they have a bunch of free play, match play, lose play, food and sweepstakes coupons that HAVE to be used by today. Evidently during the late night planning she forgot about a big dinner tonight with some city muckety-mucks that we’re supposed to be at, center table and all that. To move this along, they decide to leave here at 8am to get a WHOLE HOUR in of slot play and then drive back to make this dinner. Well, I can get a shoe done in an hour for sure AND it would be the 150th test shoe so why not tag along and make it at least worth my time? Of course they completely forgot about putting gas in the car, school busses on country roads and the usual accident on US41 by the bait shop. But I digress. I usually walk around for 15-20 minutes or so to get myself “acclimated†to the casino and get settled down from the rush trip in. This time it took about 5 minutes so I wasn’t really happy about that. As it turned out the shoe played nicely with only a few real decisions to make. Namely at hand 36 where my 3rd “6†came up in the second column. Normally this would have me out of the shoe but it had been going well so I elected to make one more wager just to test the water. It loses, I’m done, it wins and I move on. It wins. Same decision at hand 38. Hand 41 is tricky. It loses and if I make the normal 2 unit wager next and it loses, I’m down to +5 and really didn’t want to lose half the profit right there so I went with a 1 unit “test the water†bet. Of course it lost. Make the next one a single too, now treading water lightly to try to sneak out a win. Nope, it wasn’t to be. Another lost bet. This now puts me in a more traditional setting for me. Up +6 in the third column and ready to test for a single wager “flyer†to see if I can continue on. Nope, not today. It loses the third bet and I’m done at +5. Hey! A hundred bucks profit is always good, right? The women wish they could have come out of there with a C-Note, I assure you! They were very quiet on the trip back home. Here’s the card in all its faded glory. I also ran it using PJ’s NU SAP and it scored well also. And for the record, the last 50 shoes running MVS+ have produced 39 wins, 11 losers and +234 units at a 78% win rate. This is slightly lower than the earlier 83% reported rates for the first 100 shoes but I think that may be due to a slight change in the wager pattern. Overall, for the 150 shoes, it’s running at 83.4% and +975. MVS

Res, In my case, I treat any B3 start (or P3 start) as a streak and just play RD1 on it until it fails, at which time I see what is now controlling. In your posted example. I believe it hits +7.5 before losing to the three bet pattern at 16,17, and 18 under RD1 where is finishes at +3 at hand 18. I'm sure a TB4L start should come up close to that also but as I'll always start a streak of three at the start of the shoe with RD1, that's my input on it. MVS

Norm, I'm thinking that I was so taken aback to see any kind of streak in the shoe at my place that my mind just went into "streak play" mode and kept going. It was almost like it was on autopilot or something. I am glad that Andrea brought the message to have me post up that shoe as I would have never even thought I played it out like that. It has been noted and added to the arsenal of tricks. MVS

Andrea, Today is your lucky day. I had planned on screwing around with the graphics area here in the forum and that was a perfect segue into posting up this picture! It's the last shoe of the day in which I quit with a +10 because I set that as the decade stop for that particular series. The flow starts with the usual wait for 3 hands at which time you just jump on to that streak until it loses. As we started playing RD1, it moved right over to the Player at hand 6. Now that I look at the sheet, I can see my brain slipping back into and out of RD1 for the next loss! It's strange the things you see when you look back at these things! Anyway, the loss at hand 11 should have continued to 12 and 13 but once again, my feeble brain apparently just decided to chase the streaks until they quit for good and it got the win at hand 13. I'm thinking my brain was telling me to just stay on the streaks until the shoe settles down or something. Wow. Now that I look at it, that had to be what I was thinking. A straight "Chase" of the streaks until they quit. MVS would have had a zero at hand 23. Thanks for making me take a harder look at that card! I guess that does change the way the systems panned out. RD1 would have been +3 and TB4L would be +8. You learn something every day. I think I saw those big streaks coming up and just decided to stay on them until they broke. MVS Edit. Just checked the other two sheets and they both started OTB4L with no streaks so that's how they got played.

This would be a graphic added to the message using BB Code. Apparently the main difference is that BB Code allows you to enter the graphic at a specific place in the text while the "attachment" of the graphic places it at the end of the article. This would be the same graphic added as an attachment: MVS

Well, here's the Friday casino report for MVS+ Got to the casino EARLY. What the heck was my wife thinking? Something about meetings that we all had later tonight so we had to be done, fed and home before dark. Oh well, got that done. Also learned that the new card prep is done at 11am as I got to watch it. First shoe went reasonably well. Played according to the rules, mechanical early and out at hand 20 with a +6. This was because it hit +6 three times in the first column so I figured I would take the win and see if the second shoe would play out a bit better. That shoe would have finished at +10 had I continued. Second shoe was just ugly, nasty and was one hand away from a big loss. Luckily the defining hand was a winner and I could limp forward, hoping for the best. It was -9 at hand 20. It bumped -11 twice in the second column (one strike away from a bailout) and recovered to +5 by hand 49. Figured I'd give it one more try and it lost hand 50 so I was out of there with a very happy +4, considering where it had been 25 hands earlier. Third shoe was AFTER the card prep. I think I'll be showing up for the 11am session more often. As nobody was at the table and I wasn't in any hurry, we just talked about various casinos until the prep was done. Still nobody at the table so I had to "buy in" to get it started. Betting both Player and Bank and three bank wins later ($3.75 in vig) and I could start playing. The shoe starts B46143311 and I'm done! +10 running the standard MVS+ and I was done. This could have continued on but sitting on a +12 at hand 21, I elected to take two more tries to bet it up to +15. Both bets lost and I made the trailing stop win of +10. So, one more time, it was a good session and a tidy +4, +6 and +10 for the morning's work. On the way home I ran that last quick shoe (23 hands) in my head under RD1 (+3) and TB4L (+8) so for the time being I'm thinking that using the OTB4L as the start is still the good choice. MVS

Andrea, Yes I do. Along with the requisite SAP charting, I will at least keep track on the side of the card somewhere, to let me know how many of those "3" wagers lose on the start of the ZZ. Nothing set in stone, but if it's been winning the last 5 times it came up, I'll probably keep doing it that way. MVS

Gentleman, Testing continues at an accelerated pace these days. Casino trip tomorrow morning (Friday). Sitting on 131 live shoes completed. 110 wins 21 losses. Net units = +843. Running at 84% win rate but the last 30 shoes inclusive have dropped to 77%. I do have the data now broken down for every 50 shoes as an indicator of whether or not this winning % will continue at this rate and watching each batch of 50 should help point to that. An update will follow on Friday night after the casino session. MVS

OK, with the recent rebuilding of the forum and the demise of the "old" uploads area, I'll see if I can repost and/or relink those graphics. MVS (I need the practice anyway)

Baccplay, The wagers go 1,2,3 Skip. The bets stay at 1 until a loss. After 4 wins in a row, a slight winning progression. The shoes are run about 90% mechanical as described several times in this thread. I just went back and blew the entire day "retesting" the shoes to make sure I did them correctly, as in, how I would play in the casino. +6 in the first column continues into the second column. If it continues to win, I'll keep bumping up the "bottom level" for the stop loss. If the progression falls back to +6, it gets one more attempt to move up and then quits the shoe at +5. If I'm still struggling by the third column, +6 becomes the new target no matter what. This is my normal play method on the green table. MVS

All, Today's casino trip was work. TomM posts up some of his difficult trip to BetPx and BOC. Although the day was eventually good, it was an ugly ride all the way. First shoe didn't stay positive until hand 63!! and just barely made +5. Second shoe I figured TB4L might be the better start and got hit right off the bat. Had to change to RD1 at hand 33 and it eventually finished at +2. Third shoe finished at +8 with a final flurry of wins and ran that one all the way with the MVS plan. Hey, a winning session is a winning session. Should it really be this much work !! :alcoholic: MVS Shoe #1 B121113111122111 P111612111221 B211241531 B143111 Shoe #2 P2212341131 B1311132251 B11131215221 B21122 Shoe #3 B112111211225 B251231411 P11121311111222 B21442121 MVS

PJ, When I posted up the very first message, I made sure to make a note that I started the ZZ run after the three singles (B23111x) or a ZZ run of 4 in BTC notation. I play it as shown in graphic #2. MVS

Norm, There was no "stop win" as such. If it was winning, it kept playing until the finish of the shoe. With that said, if the entire shoe was a bitter stuggle to hold a +2 or +3 and I hit a +6 at the middle of the last column, I would generally exit at that point with the win. Yes, some were 6 deck (generally the live, online dealers, and the casino shoes were 8 deck) Falling stop wins at the half-decade? That means I was above 20 or 25 and started to hit some losses. I would exit the shoe if a +25 dropped to +20 or a +20 fell to +15. A half decade stop (5, 10, 15, 20) as opposed to a full decade stop (10,20,30,40, etc). If you were at 35, quit when it fell to 30. MVS

Tom, Well, that's just about what I did. The wife was out doing her civic duty (paymaster at the bingo hall for charity) and I sequestered myself in the computer room, a dozen sharpened pencils and a bright light on the desk. Several hours later, with blisters on my fingers and a running count posted to a spreadsheet to keep track of all kinds of things, I finished running 100 shoes. All 100 were live dealt, mostly from Dublin, Seminole, and a few from BOC. No RNG shoes. The standard rules were to play these as I play: The wagers were 1,2,3 Skip to a circle. Start the shoe by waiting for the first three hands and then start in running either OTB4L or TBL as indicated by the start. Try to get ahead early and bail out if getting killed. (Well, DUH). Generally more than one losing "3 in a row" per column would have me seriously thinking about leaving the shoe and figuring how to get to at least +5. The stop loss was "in the vicinity" of -10 to -12, depending on how I felt about the shoe as it ran. Sometimes you just have to throw one more unit out to convince yourself to EXIT NOW! Many shoes had me up nicely in column two only to find a crash dive that had me exit in column three at +5 or +6 to preserve a win. If I could keep bumping up the plateau level by 5, I would keep going. Some shoes hit in the 15's and 20's with falling stop wins at the half-decade in column three or four. The bottom line numbers follow: 100 shoes. 74 winning shoes, 26 losing. 74% win rate. 65% of the shoes went +5 in the first column. None hit the stop loss in the first column. Final unit count was +695 which is just under 7 units per shoe. I'll need to take a break and then I run the same 100 shoes with the TB4L+ idea to compare notes. Just have to figure out how we'll bet it for the comparison. MVS

I haven't tried it flat betting as I'm currently using the 1,2,3 Skip plan but an update from tonight has me finally losing a shoe with this method. It went 21 shoes, all live hands but only 5 of them from inside a real casino with the rest being online live dealers and a half dozen "hand dealt" 8 deck shoes. It was one of the hand dealt shoes that finally got me for a -10. It was bound to happen, of course. A phenomenal run of 131's came up 3 times and when the fourth one showed up early in the second column, I threw in the towel and called it a night. The shoe eventually finished out -9 but it got uglier on the way. With that said, the initial run of 21 and 2 isn't too shabby. I've got a live casino run scheduled for Friday so we'll see how it goes then. MVS

Yep, done that myself. The change at the column catches me more often than I would like to admit. MVS

Norm, You're making this more difficult that it needs to be. You've asked "which takes precedent" after losing a 111 series? They both are equal. You stop betting and change to the ZZ pattern. If you lose three in a row (or how ever many you finally decide is YOUR OWN stopping point) you stop betting but continue on paper betting in whatever mode you are supposed to be in. If you lose a B111 series, you then paper bet on the ZZ run until it either wins or loses. When you start Hand 66, you're currently sitting on a P2111 so your next paper bet is B. It loses. You go back to OTB4L. You're now looking at P2112 at hand 67 so the next PAPER wager is on P. It wins. You're now still in OTB4L mode and start back in with real money on Hand 68 at 1 on Player. Don't read more into the basic rules than need be. 1. Start OTB4L. 2. Change after three losses in a row. 3. Paper bet until a win. 4. Change back on the next loss. MVS

That's very true. I have gotten out of sequence with it winning the 1 and losing the 2 bet, but it self corrects once the Z starts. It's the RD1 pattern that gets whacked on the single side. But then the RD1 is used only on the streaks and not really on the Z's. Did that make sense to you guys? MVS

Norm, I'm thinking that the advantage to betting something like 1,2,1,2 is that when the long runs (and Z's) show up, you collect that extra unit every other bet and it gives you the opportunity to press up with the wins a little quicker. As I'd previously mentioned, getting the extra unit on the LW situations is nice and helps me to get out of the shoe that much quicker. Also, I'm thinking that shoe was not typical mainly because it won 40 hands and lost only 21!! We should always be so lucky, eh? Ooops, I was looking at another sheet, not that +11 one. Sorry. MVS