MVSeahog

Kevster, Well, when I signed up, I spent a whole week just reading all of the old message traffic to attempt to get an idea of where all these plays were coming from. I think it helped a lot. Others have come into the private area, found a system they liked and immediately proceeded to the casino and lost straight out. What happens is you get so caught up in all the "new" ideas that they all seem perfect, and most are, except for YOUR style of play. When I finally worked with one of the plays and it meshed well with me, I went and played that one and it's been working for me ever since. Yes, changes are made, ideas come and go and modifications are just around the corner, but feeling comfortable in what you're playing with at the table is a very important variable in winning. So, should you decide to join, be sure and READ, READ, READ everything you can. Then read it again. Really. With that said, you can read up on the current system in a few hours, but you really won't be ready to play it until you've got some of the tactics of it down pat. Read up a lot, practice, practice and practice some more under REAL conditions. Practice like you'll play and nothing at the table will surprise you. The casino environment is much more challenging than table practice at home, as you're probably well aware of. The private forum is not the Holy Grail of baccarat, but it's closer than anything I could find on my own and there's a lot of really intelligent PLAYERS in here. No arguing, just constructive ideas and a continuing working environment. I bought in back in August and have been very pleased with my results. Winning is always better than losing. I am not a paid member of this forum and I don't get a dime for posting up my comments here. I am a happy camper though! MVS

Once more to run the gauntlet at Immokalee. Had some misgivings about this trip, but the wife and friend wanted to go so it was planned for the Monday afternoon thing once all the "civic and social" chores were done. Too many meetings around here anyway and I needed to get out. They actually had three people at the table when I sat down and bought in. Glanced at the card on my left and it appeared to be OK for starting Maverick with an RD1 using 1211234 as the play. It started negative and just drifted on down to -9 at hand 20 at which time I had to pull the plug as NUSAP was pointing to OTB4L a bit so I made the change. I think I'm still having trouble with Maverick finding a suitable place to move to F2/F3. Anyway, NUSAP (running U1D2M1) brought it back up to -2 by hand 40 and actually finished the shoe at +2, no doubt thanks to a timely intervention of a P(11) run at the finish! I gave Maverick another start in the second shoe as I just can't believe I would screw it up like the first shoe. It went much better at the start but still hit -6 at hand 23 and once again I elected to bail out and get back to NUSAP. Hit hand 40 at +8 and got out at hand 70 at +15! That's a 21 unit turnaround. I'm thinking that one of MY problems running Maverick is that the 1211234 system play is leaving me in a weak position early on in the shoe and it's not recovering, mainly due to my inadequate sense of when to drop the RD1 and move to Fx. I'm tending to think that a stronger wagering platform (U1D2M1 as opposed to 1231234) will help my session work here. Mark has mentioned that once your bankroll is sufficient to support the "losing 6 and 7" runs, which it currently is, then going to U1D2M1 and similar is the next level. I did record on the card that Maverick's long loser was only 3 but it was separated by only a single win so the net on those was pretty bad. Losing the second bet a lot just killed me, 2 units at a time. My play under NUSAP was pretty much as described by PJ's posts except after the two losses, I would paper play until a win to restart the live betting. Kind of an U1D2M1 Skip to a circle type of play. So, it wasn't all that bad of a session except I'd like to get back to winning earlier in the shoe instead of working my butt off to salvage a bad start!! The wife and her friend were out of money and looking for dinner, which the casino nicely comped, so I was done for the night. MVS Shoe #1 (Mid entry) B311132111312 P141332111111 P1141(11) Shoe #2 B11421131312 B1222323122 P1121143111211 P22341221

That's a good idea but if you'd like to play while sitting there, I've used the Maverick (Mreteuya's play) running 11211234 as the betting plan for the first column and it's kept me out of trouble on the last two sessions so that I can at least get to the second column and on without really risking any real money while waiting for the shoe to develop. MVS

Well, as answered earlier, Ellis left a message in the private area saying he was still having some pretty big problems on the home front and would be back as soon as he could. In the mean time, there's still a lot of us here, doing what we do every day. Working on the system play, making things better and generally helping each other out. I'm sure one of the moderators or Keith could answer any of your questions. There are very few messages posted in the public areas and I never could figure that out when I was still a "public" member. The message traffic in the private area is daily and the last few days the volume has really increased for sure. MVS

John, You've got it down pretty well I'd say. And yes, I did up the stop loss to around -10 to -12 depending on how the shoe had been running. -8 just seemed a bit low when playing 1,2,3. I've also merged the SAP count into it to help decide whether to wait out a bet or jump in on a 3 wager but mostly to confirm the 3 in a rows on either side. Glad it's working for you and I'm still running shoes with it and testing for a larger database to check all of them against. Right now my "Big Three" are MVS, NU SAP and Maverick (RD1/F2F3) as played by Mreteuya. MVS

Wow. When I first asked the question I just assumed I would be the only one asking about it. Never realized it would generate so much "interest" from the troops!! This is good. We can get this cleared up for once and for all! MVS

Thanks. I think that really cleared up some nagging questions I had about it. It is printed out and pasted to the inside cabinet wall so I can stare at it from time to time. MVS

Giuys, I'm sorry to have to post this, but it's just driving me nuts. Just when I think I actually understand what everyone means when switching to F2 or F3 while running "Maverick", I read a message that completely goes opposite to what I thought I understood about F2/F3. With that said, I'll ask out here in the open to have someone write down exactly what each is and how to play it. I had originally thought it was a 2 or 3 set wager on one side. Then I thought it was a 2/3 chase on a side with a predominate pattern. Then I saw where it simply jumped on the last side with a 2 or 3. Do runs of 4+ come into play when deciding the F2/F2 side to play? So, my poor brain is slowly cooking itself while I struggle to make a coherent plan using F2/F3 in conjunction with Mreteuya's Maverick play. I know it's incredibly simple but I keep seeing conflicting messages about it and I believe that's what's making this more difficult than need be! MVS (in an F3 level fog of some type)

Doy, Welcome aboard! Glad to see people posting up here. Anyway, to answer your question it would good to distinguish between playing "online" and playing a live table "online". There are lots of places to play online but only in an RNG (computer generated) game. Most regular players will not play the online computer games as it's not a true, "live" game. However, the live dealt shoes at several places (Black Orchid, Bet Phoenix, DublinBet, Venezia, etc) are live dealers in realtime and for most purposes can be considered "live dealt hands". My nearest casino for baccarat is a little over an hour away on a good day so I do have access to live tables, but for a lot of practice, I'll head to the previously mentioned places for "live" play. There are a few thousand messages all over the internet either saying RNG (computer) games are just fine and just as many saying they wouldn't bet a dime on an RNG game if it was the last one in town. I used to play the RNG games but saw some odd things that I just couldn't believe would happen in a normal time frame so my PERSONAL choice is to not play them. I don't have any problems with playing the live dealt online games though but as I'm a US player, I can't really play for money, only fun. However, it is very good practice and you can pace yourself to the timing of the game at hand. MVS

Yep, I've been getting a lot of calls from them lately to get me to get my account loaded (with big bonuses too) for the upcoming March Madness thing. I think I'll pass. MVS

Normally we would pull the links from these messages but it appears that this one has some good information to read. Just today I got another call from Bet Phoenix asking me to make a deposit with a huge bonus for the upcoming March Madness thing. They have been calling about every three days now even though I only have a play account over there at this time. MVS

OK, so I grabbed 10 shoes off the top of the pile and counted them up. 3's Win 19 Lose 22 4's Win 12 Lose 7 5's Win 6 Lose 1 6+ Win 0 Lose 4 It's obviously too small of a sample to make a decision but an interesting start for sure. I'll watch and try to keep track of them in future shoes as a side note, just to watch the trend. MVS

This is just an update to the "150th Shoe" thread. Now currently at the 200 shoe level and still running a good winning percentage. After 200 shoes we're showing a 78.1% win rate with +1108 units. The last 50 shoes were much harder to play and did require some changes during the shoes to continue to play. Things like a very strong Player or Bank side would have me attempting to change from the predominant OTB4L play to something akin to RD1 earlier than the MVS program would call for. In spite of this (or because of this) the winning percentage for hands 150-200 was down to 64% although still showing a nice +133 units. I will now go back and run the same shoes against NU SAP and RD1/n to see how they stack up against each other. Yes, it is time consuming but luckily, I've got the time! In my initial testing of the other system plans in conjunction with MVS, they are all showing well. I just want to convince myself that any of them is a valid play for most of the tables I see and that others post as "problem shoes". This will also allow me to see any shoes that just kill all three of them and find out what caused the damage! The spreadsheet that I built will track pretty much any amount of shoes and systems as needed. Right now it's only the three previously mentioned ones but others can be added as they appear. Always good for reference and every shoe played is also carried as a numbered, blank copy that can be reprinted to be played under any system desired. No sense in writing out those things over and over, eh? Anyway, that's the 200th shoe update from here. MVS

OK, let's try this one more time, correctly.... Well, I can help out a bit. Here's the first shoe from Andrea's scan. At least as best I could see it. Hopefully somebody else will tackle the other ones. This was run with NO weak side waiting. MVS (must find a decent red ink pen instead of the pencil) Stop the presses. The start is wrong now. The first red 1 should be a zero as it hasn't hit yet. Only changes the score by 1. (Why do I attempt to do these things in a hurry all the time???)

Miclus83, At this point in your "experience" here in BTC, I would recommend that you take the time to look through all of the threads listed here in the Universal Baccarat section and just read everything you can to really get a good feel for what different methods of play are available. It's one thing to just grab a system, test it for a day and then jump into the fray. As you found out, that rarely works in the real world. So, as I've mentioned many times before in other message threads, take the time to read each message in a thread that has the system play you want to do. Practice with it a lot. Be able to spot its weak points as soon as they show up. The four system plays I mentioned earlier are all in their own respective threads. I passed over one of the key ones (SAP) because I thought it was too difficult to learn and to play in real time. I was wrong and once I really sat down and penciled out every move in SAP (and with PJ's excellent examples) I finally got it and now find the tracking SAP events is very easy. Read up on those four and Mrutueya's Maverick Play too. They all do very well as long as you understand what they are playing for. When's a good time to switch to another system? Well, if you're at your "stop loss" it's too late for that shoe. Many guys start getting itchy to change when half of their stop loss shows up. Me? When I start to see -4 and -5 I'm pulling back a bit to see what "could" happen in the next few wagers, just in case, and if the table gets streaky, I'll have RD1 or a flat bet chase ready to bring me back to even. But then I personally like RD1 and its varients, so that's my choice. You may work out a plan that fits your style better. The U1D2M2 wagering plan fits a lot of players but it's just not for me at this time. U1D2M1 works better for me in most cases. Anyway, read through those previously mentioned threads. I am by no means an instructor here, merely a player who came in with the same questions you have. I solved my questions by reading everything I could find and then going back and reading it again for the details I may have missed. MVS

Miclus83, I hate it when that happens. You look at the shoe, figure out what to play and it decides to make a complete reversal right as you start putting money on the table. Been there, done that, as well as many others here. For what it's worth, having a back up plan (as in another system play) really does help out in situations like these. I just ran that small sample and got the following results: MVS got +2 RD1 got +9 (love those streaks!) RD1/n wound up at +5 NU SAP even managed +3 to finish. Ellis has always said that it is very important to have at least three good methods of play, mainly as a backup when it's all falling apart or you couldn't find a shoe/table that fit what you wanted to play. We've got several really good methods of play here now that I would be comfortable with pretty much anytime now. Please take a closer look at them and give them a try. Almost all of them include the basic OTB4L play with apparent appropriate changes "on the fly" as needed. Thanks for the question as all questions help everyone here for sure. MVS

All, I just wanted to confirm that we are currently testing either U1D2M1 out to 5 or U1D2M1 out to 3 and NOT restarting the weak side after a WW or WLW. Is that correct as of this posting? MVS

Res, Thanks. For a minute there I thought I was losing it! I looked at hand 13 in that example and wondered what I was missing about RD1?? Hey, in the heat of the battle, things like that happen. I've gone over my cards later at night and asked myself more than once, "why did I play that way???" Anyway, at least I know I'm not off in left field when I look at your posted shoe. MVS

Andrea, I also ran all four of them through and the two "tough" shoes (#3 and #4) produced +6 and +5 respectively. The reason my +nets are different is because I got out of the shoes at hands 30 and 64 to take the profits. At least we're on the same track, eh? MVS

Yes, I count that the same way and then wondered about the wager at hand 46. The "4" and "5" bets lose but it continues on with a third bet at hand 46. Is that correct? MVS

You can add me to the list of people now in "test" mode with RD1/n. Currently rereading all the messages to get fully up to speed. MVS

Baccplay, Good idea. I'll use that in the next round of shoes. Anything would be better than what I've been coming up with lately. Thanks. MVS

All, As this is the public area of the forums, anyone can post up here and ask questions. If you have a recent shoe you've played that gave you trouble or want to find a few "live" baccarat shoes to test on, you can post them up here and anyone can use them to work with. Just be sure and mention where it came from. Please, no RNG shoes in this thread, only "live" dealt casino hands. And, because I've just posted these up in our private area for all the members to dissect, I'll post yesterday's shoes here for you all. Always keep your score cards when leaving the table as it gives you a chance to go over your plays to see how you might have done it better. MVS Seminole Hard Rock, Immokalee Feb 22, 2010 Shoe #1 B113121241112 B1211211111111131 B6153212 B211312112 Shoe #2 P14121313121 B61612211 B251116121 P21216312 Shoe #3 P3112161122 P61411115 P1513523 P112125

Well, this would be it! As previously mentioned, the wife's birthday is always a good reason to hit the casino and as she had a ton of free play, birthday bucks, food coupons and some slot machine things I still don't understand, we headed out, with one of her buddies in tow. Another slot degenerate. As usual, nobody at the tables for me so I started in running MVS, playing the $10 net bet for the first three hands and then proceeded to do my "traditional' lose the first three wagers. I REALLY, REALLY hate that now. The entire shoe just wanders around between +1 and -6 and finishes at zero with a last wager "all or nothing" type of bet while down -3. It wins for the zero. Second shoe was a bit odd as it had no PPx runs in it until hand 38! I made a notation to switch to Sys 40 around hand 22 or so but never actually played it that way. I just stayed on Bank and bet it until it lost a three in a row. Then the Players came out with a vengeance! About the middle of the 4th column I went back to Sys 40, at least I think I did as I had a notation on the card, but the finally play of the card looked more like RD1 at the end. I really have to sort that out in the casino as too much changing really wrecks the play. Came out of that at +2. Ugly , but alive. I had a bit of time before the next shoe and already had my homework done for the card so I asked for a dinner comp. Got it for the both of us (woo-hoo!) and looked over the previous cards. There was nothing in the last two cards that would have made the U1D2M2 come out poorly so I elected to run shoe number 3 that way. Although U1D2M2 can produce some great wins, it can also produce some "great" wagers, usually more than I'd like to place but I figured I hadn't really dipped into the bail out territory in the first two shoes so I had that to work with. I ran it U1D2M2 Skip to a win after 3 losses. At hand 9 it was -10 !! At hand 31 it was back up to +5. It does give you some large swings for sure, but it was staying just ahead of the trouble stop of -15. It almost hit +10 in the third column but just missed so I had to keep playing. Finally took the +6 falling win at hand 66 and then it continued on to finish +14 in the next 6 hands. Arrrrgh! So, a very weak session and a very small profit. +3 after commissions BUT we did have a baby back rib dinner for me, filet mignon for the wife and prime rib for our tag along slot player. AND I got to eat way too much Indian fry bread which I have become addicted to since last years trip out west to the Bad Lands. MVS+ is still holding a nice winning shoe ratio holding at 80% for the last 184 shoes, but the winning net is slowly getting smaller. The last 50 shoes are showing a 71% win ratio. I will continue to monitor and play this in conjunction with NU SAP which I'm growing more accustomed to. NU SAP would have done pretty good in the first two shoes as I made a quick calculation on them before starting #3. Anyway, it was a good trip, the wife hit a $600 free play bonus and pulled $457 in real money out of it during the playback. Can't complain there! Maybe we should all be moving over to the slot machines???? MVS Shoe #1 B113121241112 B1211211111111131 B6153212 B211312112 Shoe #2 P14121313121 B61612211 B251116121 P21216312 Shoe #3 P3112161122 P61411115 P1513523 P112125

killthehouse, I'm pretty sure that the PM part of this forum defaults to NOT saving your sent PM's. Under the miscellaneous options, when sending a PM, you'll see a box that says "Save a copy of this message....". Select that one and it'll save all your future PM's. You can try it with a test PM to me when you get a chance. MVS