kachatz1
-
Posts
3,331 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
432
Posts posted by kachatz1
-
-
You aren't the only one core. But I already rescinded the whole idea yesterday.
Ellis-
You are evermore firmly the head of the Baccarat Hall of Fame, insofar as all of us at BTC are concerned.
I think a firm commitment to the words 'lifetime member' means 'lifetime member' has been rendered, and now it is really up to you to determine the degree to which you wish to devote time and energy to a "new and improved" NET BETTING addition to NOR.
While it seems incumbent upon all serious students to "attend class" and participate in the discussion of the subject matter at hand, it is always up to the university and the teacher to craft the syllabus...( or just follow last semester's and reteach the benefit of the information to existing/new students)
Really, to take NET BETTING to it's next level has to be your decision, and no-one here can fault you for simply referring students to that which has already been published on the subject....looked at it myself today, and with referring people to the most apropos posts, I think most will get the idea of what it entails/ how to apply it/ when to utilize ( if at all...)
As always, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
-
agreed I had nine persons in Vegas,and most left happy
Have to go back to the basics:
1) cannot win every shoe
2) win 2/3 is to be expected playinf NOR
-
Hi Ellis,
Hope that the AC seminar went great. Can anyone share an update on what was being taught during the seminar? I believe many of us are looking forward to learning the new NORSAP or NORA.
Could you post something soon to feed our appetite?
I am thinking no posts = limited results?
When in N + O + R "rocks"
-
Yeah, I wish I were able to witness a lot more real-time play of winners such as yourself and Ellis. Also, Archer (Jim), too, who likewise claims to have attained his own mastery of the game. I can name a dozen others, too, including, of course, Mark Maverick Teruya, all of whom belong to what I call the "Sixth Sigma Club."
Yes but I wonder if any of the really have any idea what you are talking about when you refer to them as in the Six Sigma club and if they studied statistics as it related to process variation. Which is really what we are trying to identify in these Baccarat Games
No degrees in THAT , but here are some real-life observations of statistics as they relate to process variation. I think our membership will have many others to add...maybe it is seven-sigma?
(1) When my kids were very young, I noticed that my wife and I had to find a way to encourage them to pick up after themselves ( their toys, their messes, etc.) initially, we just gave them some sort of "treat" like candy, or whatever, then left them alone to do the dirty work...Result? little in the way of cleaning up, but the dentist always had a smile on his face. So we varied the "process", and instead of candy I demonstrated what a few licks from my black belt could leave on their little hind-ends if they did not comply. No, not a six-sigma black belt, just one I used to hold my pants up ...remarkably, we noticed an incredible increase in the percentage of times they complied with our request! Just the image of me standing there in the room with them and starting to unbuckle that belt seemed to work wonders. Certainly an example of process variation at work...
(2) Some time after that, we bought dogs for each of them...I'll never forget how happy they seemed the day we visited the pet store and they each got to pick out their own puppy, and give them a name. Well, anyone who has ever owned a puppy knows it has to be cared for properly, and in the case of dogs, they need to be trained to only do their business outside of the house, not in it....sure enough, a short time after admitting Misty and Brandy into our homes, my wife complained to me that the kids took little interest in feeding them regularly, and had no interest at all in letting them outside several times a day so thy could do their business. Repeated discussions and admonitions proved fruitless, so after about a week I decided to vary the process so that each night after the kids fell asleep I let the dogs out of their cages and put their respective pet in their bedroom with them, and closed the door. Sure enough, each morning there was a "puppy mess" on the bed, or on the floor in each kids' room, to which they resoundingly reacted negatively to the smell and having to clean it up themselves. Alas, things got much better quickly and both kids understood the value of taking care of their "property" and the messes were all left outside in the yard...was it a 100% statistical improvement? Hard to quantify/measure, but it sure was a decent % and I am sure directly related to the process variation which was introduced...
(3) Now here we are 14 years later, the kids are grown up, and have advanced professional degrees. Several years back, we found that a "family plan" was the best way to keep our cell phone expenses to a minimum, so we sat down together and carefully laid out how much each family member would pay towards the monthly expenses. Naturally, in the beginning, the checks were sent to Mom right on time every month, and she dutifully paid the bill...and just as naturally, as time went by, both kids had to be reminded that they needed to send in their share of the monthly bill on a "regular" ( ie, monthly) basis...so, about six months ago and after many reminders to both about their responsibility for timely payment, I recognized that it was time for yet another process variation...so I called At&T and had both of their numbers disconnected ( but kept them on our plan so we did not lose the #'s to another party). Lo and behold, after a few days of Dad being blamed for all manner of evil doings and irresponsibility , the phones were turned back on and neither has missed a payment since!
The point of all this is just like Keith so aptly stated...it is certain that while few among us hold advanced degrees in statistics, we are all very capable and have learned over the course of our varied lives the impact that "process variation" can have on the outcome of a series of events. Yes, I have long since had to move up a few sizes in belts, I have subsequently learned that the kids named their dogs Misty and Brandy because they thought it a great joke to play on their parents to assign the girls common "stripper" names , and At&T will carry on long after I have cancelled our cell phone contract completely.
So when you think about NOR and it's application to making you money, fret not that it "seems" difficult to learn, sometimes "feels" impossible to apply perfectly to each and every shoe, and is in no way an assurance of winning every single time!
In short, it is a simple set of concepts that will enable you to apply a process variation to the way most people approach baccarat, and along the way you will enjoy statistically much better winnings...
Good luck to all!
-
Since our friend Dave posted on his blog, ImSpirit, something that touches on Baccarat, I replied, particularly since Dave is one of many who thinks Baccarat is random. If you are interested go here http://imspirit.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/the-law-of-small-numbers/
Dave is a very kind, well-meaning individual whose ImSpirit posts present an unbiased look at the situation at hand.
I met him in PA at the Fall seminar last year, and really liked him...also observed him playing in Chicago when the Rivers Casino first opened up.
He is looking at Bac from a truly un-biased STATS standpoint, and his analyses of playing 100, 1000, 1 million shoes and the probabilities for diff outcomes are enjoyable and enlightening. What Dave ( nor anyone, really) has ever been able to adequately/succinctly/verifiably/quantitatively explain with a high degree of certainty is the "mental edge" one gains from playing many, many shoes...in many, many casinos...with consideration for time-of-day/shoe biases, etc. as they relate to winning some shoes/losing others ( YES, Ellis, this is a lot of what you are saying!!!)
Frankly speaking, the more you play NOR with a good MM system, good stop-loss parameters and a willingness to quit while you are ahead ( or behind) , I find the better off your chances of winning 1 shoe/1 session/ I week or whatever interval of measurement you choose.
Zumma 600, Zumma 1000, etc, etc, etc. is all just theoretical, and one interpretation in the NOR road to switch systems can change the outcome dramatically going forward.
To all of us who look at this game and enjoy the very real prospect of making money on a regular basis ( not every shoe/not every session/ not every week)...BUT winning the majority of the time, let the games keep on coming...
-
Oh, and YES I still have it...
-
Yes, Ellis is quite correct.
Whenever someone is offering someone else an obscene amount of money for whatever reason, it will always be in the form of neatly stacked and bound stacks of bills in a briefcase, or, if the amount is even larger, a suitcase.
Always.
For accuracy, the briefcase should be a Zero Halliburton brand brushed-aluminum model (oddly just the right size for ten thousand one-hundred-dollar bills), the first choice of terrorists, drug dealers, and Las Vegas whales.
A briefcase full isn't really an obscene amount these days, relatively speaking. Assuming all US$100 bills, an average sized briefcase (25" x 18" x 4") could theoretically fit about US$2,400,000.
An average attache case (18" x 12" x 4.5") is good for about US$1,000,000. That's obviously a lot of money, but not generally enough in the modern developed world to live on like a king, sufficient to fund a significant enterprise, or worth killing over. That's precisely the reason why the US treasury doesn't make any bills bigger than $100.
Notice, however, that if you fly across the Atlantic it is possible to cram in a briefcase an obscene amount of euros: using 500 € bills and assuming each bill has a thickness of 0.16 mm, a briefcase as described above can hold €6,350,000 (US$8,550,275), whereas an attaché case can hold up to €3,213,000 (US$4,326,304).
And that's more than you ever wanted to know about a suitcase full of $100 bills!!
MVS (graciously grabbed from several sources.)
PS I'll be ordering my Haliburton Zero on eBay later this month.
Ironically, a Halliburton Zero was given to me by SPORTSBOOK.com about 8 years ago, when I was playing them on line a lot, used to go to Costa Rica for golf and R&R, the wife been there several times..also, Superbowl in Miami , Bulls games, yada, yada
Interesting that was their choice of Players Club gifts back in the day ( when they should/would/could pay up...) Times have changed...
-
are you that guy on TV ( "the most interesting man in the world" ) who always closes his commercials with the line:
stay thirsty, my friends...
just thinking...
-
Core-
Would love to come there someday...played a number of times in the "old" macau, before sands, etc...I AM SURE GENTING/ Singapore IS DIFFERENT BUT FROM LOOKING AT IT ONLINE, LOOKS LIKE A BLAST
Last week I played with another BTC member over in Biloxi, MS. and thee are definitely some advantages to discussing strategy/BS/MM etc. BTW, my friend Bill milked NOR for all it was worth and ended one shoe up 25 or 26 units at one casino, and when we went down the street we could not "buy" a correct bet! Ha!
-
Hello Core,
Your Camp is great!
If all of us play together their will be very benefit for all of us! I
am interested in it....!
Sounds really interesting. I'm not sure what it is like at the GENTING, but if you were here in the States, likely after a day or two of you all applying a BTC beatdown to the casino. They are going to have to close a few tables. HA!
-
He was my son, died 13 months ago.
Wish it was differn't, but modern medicine has us by the balls.
May his soul rest in peace, and may you forever celebrate his life.
-
Here's a Horizontal card with the SAP chart included. Those of you who must use the Horizontal card just fill in the sap info after every opposite to update the SAP chart.
I didn't upload a blank card because it you want to use this format, just add the sap chart to the bottom of your current card.
In my example I use Blue for Bank and Red for Player. If you look at the 1st line reading from left to right you can see that every change in color represents an opposite (and a new event). Numbers of the same color going down represent repeats.
When you fill in the SAP events, you work from left to right filling in the chart after every opposite. Opposites represent the end of an event and the beginning of a new event. For this reason you don't fill in the first event until the first opposite and thereafter every time there is another opposite.
I count 1s as 1 point, 2s as 2 points, 3s as 3 points and 4+s as 4. If you use 8 points for 4s as Ellis started doing with NOR, you would just ignore 5+s and not count then.
If anyone has a better way to track the events then chime in we are always looking for better ways to trend the shoe.
PJ[/quoten]
Anyone who has not tried this at least one or two shoes "LIVE" in a casino, or even U want 2 just go back and "reformat" some of your saved shoes, you are doing yourself a disservice if you have not tried it..this is AWESOME!!
If it is not 4 U , understood...but at least try it!
If you truly believe "the trend is your friend", U will not be disappointed...
-
Suggest you take the time to read back through all the related threads right here on this forum re: S40, money management, F2F3 , OTBL, etc and it will really help...
Anyone have any specific threads they want to point out?
Then take some of your shoes and practice those concepts B4 your next visit to the money tree...er, I mean the casino!
-
Core-
I used to think this would be a great idea, and perhaps for some it would/could/might just make sense...read the post ( and the responses from Ellis and others who have tried this) I started 6/20/11 and updated with my one and only attempt at it in my 11/27/2011 post...
Made for a whole different "Baccarat experience" than what I thought it would be like!!
Anyways, good luck to you and go win some more money at the casino!...I agree that a disciplined, well thought out approach to Playing baccarat is one of the best investments anyone can make...
-
Finally, THE TRUTH...
TANG... THE BREAKFAST OF CHAMPIONS!!!!
-
Are they pulling the cards out of the shoe "one at a time" and turning them over or do they just pull all four and turn them in another order?
At my local Indian place, there was one dealer who just pulled four cards out and spread them on the BP spots. Not in any particular order.
Just drag four cards out and turn them over. It drove me nuts and after awhile I just didn't play at that table when she would show up.
I much prefer pulling each card as a single and showing.
If that's the way this "new" electronic display works, then it might be OK.
Is that the way the cards come out at your place?
MVS
They pull out one for P, one for B, one more for P, and one more for B (leaving them all face down, in that order).
Then they turn them over.
If they need another P card, they pull it and turn it over...if they still need a final B card, they do the same.
By that time, and before ALL cards are displayed( whether 4,5 or 6), " the fat lady has sung" ( aka, the light has "gone on, indicating the winner, or a tie.
-
My point exactly.
If they are just going to turn on a light P-win, B-win or Tie...even before the cards are turned over, what's up with that? ( Oh , I get it...no dealer mistakes, the eye-in-the-sky, no dealer cheating-wink,wink- , make the game faster, e.t.c)
More important, with the vast majority of the players who like to mess with the cards ( you know who you are...)...2-side, 4-side, etc. but having to play Mini-Bac when Big Bac is not available.... most casinos, especially THE NEW ONES CROPPING UP.... wouldn't Y.O.U. be totally turned off by the lack of suspense, the lack of bac-voodoo-what'ev'a??
And the players will ( if the opportunity is available) just move on down the road...
-
Pretty soon won't even need to deal the cards...or a dealer...just wait for the light to go on! Now that will surely be great entertainment!
A baccarat slot machine coming soon...even bigbadjohn would diss that...
-
Reading through one of the NOR threads I noticed PJ mention his Baccarat Bandits discussion group.
So I "googled" the words BACCARAT BANDITS and found an entertaining link to a YouTube video where a masked man discloses absolutely nothing about a system he wants to sell for $895 ( but he is offering a $300 rebate in the spirit of the holidays, and all)
Having read through many of PJ's posts and a lot of valuable additions to this forum, I am sure that Mr. Baccarat Bandit ( stage name "Forexjoe" ), and PapaJoe are indeed not one-in-the-same person......
Compare the Bandit's video with Ellis' Vegas NOR video, and you will know that Ellis is the real deal!
As was once uttered frequently in a TV shoe of long ago, " Who was that masked man?"
I don't know...Go ask Tonto...
And next time you are at the post office...
-
Wondering if anyone else has seen this...
Hard Rock Biloxi has installed a new shoe on their one-and-only mini-Bac table, and it indicates the outcome of a hand BEFORE THE DEALER CAN TURN THE CARDS OVER!
Using an optical reader, the cards are "read" as they come out of the shoe and electronically posted on the tote board...even worse, there is a light built into the shoe that goes off just as soon as the value of the cards indicates a P win ( blue light), a B win ( red light) or a Tie ( green light ).
So, imagine that four cards come out of the shoe, and before the dealer can even turn them over if one side has won because of a Natural 8 or 9, the light comes on and indicates which side wins! same for a tie...
Even if 5 or 6 cards have to come out to determine the outcome, the light comes on before the dealer finishes arranging all the cards....
YIKES!!! Players don't like it, Dealers don't like it.
So when I asked a few of the floor personnel who thought it would be a good idea, not a one of them plays Bac, and here are the answers I received:
1) it will attract lots of new players to the game because they don't need to know the rules...just wait for the light to come on!
2) it speeds the game up and everyone wants that, right?
And the best of all....
3) look, we only have one Bac table, so obviously we don't care whether we get a lot of Bac play or not...( and then he turned his back and walked away)
So, I finally was able to get one of the real Bosses to come over and I suggested they at least change the sensor so that the light had a small "lag time" before coming on to allow the dealers to deal the cards, and announce the winner...
Went back last night, and sure enough they DID MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT...
Nope, not to the light but they made the electronic display larger so everyone at he table could easily see each card up on the tote board!
Don't tell Mom, but this is either the end of Bac at the Hard Rock Biloxi, or the beginning of something not-so-good...IMO
-
bacattack, kachatz, I'm not seeing where she said that. Maybe she deleted the post or maybe it was on a different thread ?????
Oh he/she said it alright...
Said had won for 3 months straight, according to the pit boss who told her/him so, and so he/she lost that day on purpose ( commented that it was 'no so hard' to lose") HAVE TO AGREE WITH THAT!
Also in the first post, wanted to know whether sys 40 or NOR was the one to buy, and WHY?
Looking at BacQueen profile, not sure if he/she, or whether from Mars/Venus.
Either/Or we are in for a good explanation of why someone wins 3 months in a row without losing wants to know what to do next ( hoping they tell us how to win 3 months in a row! ha!)
"GroundControlToMajorTom"...
-
You said you won 3 months straight with the methods you had been using...
Can you share with the group so we can compare with Sys 40 and NOR?
Then could answer your question...
-
I attended the Las Vegas seminar this weekend and was very pleased. I can think of several minor points made by Ellis that each one of which are worth more than the cost of my entire trip. Coincidentally, I returned home this morning at 6:30 AM and as I had a few hours to kill before returning my rental car I proceeded to visit our local spot, the Seminole Hard Rock. I played 3 shoes, including one that was on fresh cards. With the fresh cards I immediately picked up on a pattern of OTB4L, which I had not previously recognized before this weekend. I started betting on the 5th hand, and before I got to 50 hands, I left the shoe at +40 and proceeded directly to the cage, followed by the door. Looking at my previous play history, the pattern that came out would have either killed me completely or left me in a very significant negative position since I play a lot more aggressive than the NOR guidelines for -8 stoploss. Thanks again Ellis and Keith!
Just what the doctor ordered.
Patient comes in half -delusional, not sure whether he/she is coming or going...Dr. Ellis immediately recognizes the symptoms of "win dehydration", recommends a few diet changes, prescribes some NOR medication, and presto-chango, the patient is good as new!
My kind of medicine...
-
Congratulations Ellis! This has to be the best and most complete manual you've ever written bar none. The examples are well chosen to demonstrate the systems, and modes of NOR. I think it is probably the best work ever written for baccarat profit seekers.
I just have one comment from my personal perspective. You know how I like to exploit second liners and I am constantly watching for the clumping of the 2+s. Well here's my suggestion. When playing the NOR approach and we are in OTB4L mode, why not place a larger bet on the 2nd liners. OTB4L thrives on them and if it's an OTB4L shoe this would be a very good chance to increase out profits. Just had to add that!
For the Sappers, it's like when 2s are MC.. 2nd liners are HOT!
Thanks for your excellent work.
PJ[/quote
pJ
So I just had to give it a try.... And so I did!
Played 12 shoes at TheHardRock Biloxi last two days and reformatted my card to make it more like PJ's approach
lo-and -behold, I noticed some things Never noticed before....
Maybe better then ever I learned to look for the 2222222222222222's in excess of normal distribution , and sure enough, I picked up some nice wins just paying attention to capitalizing on the 2's when they were MC....yes, they would have
showed up as MC on my regular cards, but here they really " stood out" when formatted as PJ describes!
One More Trick In The Book and it is a W.I.N.N.E.R.!!!
Betting psychology
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I am most comfortable with starting play at a unit size of 1% of my session bankroll.
This generally means I will start out at $25 unit size, and see how things progress for the first few hands...if it seems like the shoe is trending high O/R count, or even high P/B count I will generally move to $50 unit size.
From there, I closely monitor +/- changes in my winnings for a given shoe and start thinking about where to exit the shoe...many shoes I will stay through to the end, but often the last 20 hands or so I will not bet every hand and instead just try to spot the most seemingly best opportunities to place a bet on....even dropping back to the $25 level just to make sure I leave the shoe a winner.
For me, I play best and most successfully when the game is moving very fast and I am not forced to contemplate a wager for more than a few seconds...even if I have to exit with a stop-loss, I am still just that much more ready to tackle the next shoe.
Hardest for me is when having to wait while a tableful of players sit and stare at the tote board to see who will make the first move and which side the most money is on. For this very reason I almost always am the first to bet, as once my mind is made up, not even every other player at the table wagering on the opposite side will change my bet.
In summary, bankroll + simple money management are the main components of my unit size, with any up or down progressions depending on how the shoe is working out...