[A Horse with no name]

Hello, everyone...

Ever notice how casinos seems to be in the most out of the way places? The desert ( Vegas), A Riverboat ( all over), An island ( Bahamas, etc.)...maybe this is not just by accident, but perhaps is meant to weed-out those 1% WINNERS ...

So just to get yourself thinking straight, take 5 minutes and listen to the Band - America's song " A HORSE WITH NO NAME"...yes, you will feel right at home , just like you do playing in your favorite casino...guaranteed if you do this, next time you play you will not be able to get this song out-of-your-head!

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OK, so here I'd like to explore a theory actually espoused by many Bac Dealers, NOT MY ORIGINAL IDEA!!, and I have to admit my experience ( after much resistance) does indeed bear this out...

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Here it is:

Plain-and-simple, the more wins-in-a-row-on-one-side ( PLAYER OR BANKER), when it finally does switch to the other side, it has a higher than average propensity to "switch-back" to the strong side after just a single play in the opposite direction...

EXAMPLE:

5-BANKERS in a row ( or PLAYERS)

Then 1 on PLAYER

SWITCH right back to the BANK for the next play!

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I have had many Dealers call this the "80%" play, though I find my experience to be a bit different...BUT TAKE A LOOK BELOW!!!!!

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If you have a bunch of cards with actual live casino play ( which I do), take a look and see what your experience has been. I have played for more than 10 years, and I have saved the last several hundred cards ( shoes) to actually examine this "myth" and here I have just looked back at the cards in my possession and think I have found an exploitable advantage...

Here are my actual results:

1) Note: TIES do-not-count as an interruption to the progression ( i.e - 2B in a row, then a T, then another B = 3 Bankers in a row)

2) 3-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) = 52.2%

4-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) =54.9%

5-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) = 56.7%

6-or-more-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side (B or P) = 59.4%

3) After 6-in-a-row or more, the % did not seem to be changed much...probably due to the infrequency/low sample size of > 6-in-a-row??

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Sooooooo, does anyone out there in the FORUM have a bunch of live-casino cards they could look at to see what their experience has been??

I was very excited to see this myself, and I am anxious to see if this is an exploitable advantage we can use or not?

I know it does not seem possible, and in many shoes it does not play out this way, but take a look yourself and let us all know what you have experienced...Remember I do not count the TIES in a progression...ALSO, I HAVE NOT INCLUDED MULTIPLE OCCURRENCES ON A SINGLE SIDE AT THE END OF A SHOE...

Call me or email if questions...

kachatz1

kachatz@treomanagement.com

850-687-3128

[1 is the loniest number...]

Hello, my friends...

Before you start to read this thread, I suggest you "google" the words "1 is the lonliest number 3 Dog Night", and you'll be in the mood for what I am about to say...

I must admit this is my first real post to start a thread in this FORUM, but I am a long-time Bac player and I think I have a lot to add, albeit requiring you to put your thinking-cap in place.

What I am about to write about is not a PROVEN COMMODITY, and will be most meaningful to those of you who have saved 100's of actual played shoe results like I have...

That said, I am looking for your comments...

My "research" consists of cards I have saved since 2002 , played in Canada, Reno,Milwaukee, Macau, Vegas, Biloxi, etc...I only have kept the last several hundred, but have played many more over the last 10 years...

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So, here goes:

The other day, I was playing in Biloxi, MS. and it seemed to me that 3-in-a-row, 4-in-a-row, 5-in-a-row, etc on either PLAYER or BANKER was most likely to occur after a single event of "1-in-a-row" on the opposite side.

Got me to thinking so much, that when I got home, I went back to my 300+ cards saved from playing all-over-the-place, and I calculated the following:

IN MY CARD SAMPLING, , ANYTHING EQUAL TO OR MORE THAN 3-in-a row occurred 53.7 % of the time after a 1-in-a row on the opposite side...

In other words, in only 46.3% of the cases did a 3-in-a-row, 4-in-a-row,5-in-a-row OR MORE on either the PLAYER OR BANKER side occur after anything other than a 1-in-a-row on the opposite side...( NOTE: A TIE DOES NOT COUNT AS AN INTERRUPTION TO THE PROGRESSION)

Yes, I find this very hard to believe myself!! All of my cards are live games, no internet shoes.

1) This goes against everything about the "averages" of BACCARAT ( how many times a shift will occur after 1-in-a-row, 2-in-a-row, etc.) . And by the way, those #'s posted by Ellis are correct...

2) This hardly seemed possible, so I rechecked my figures again and again. I kept thinking maybe my sample size is inadequate, but figuring 75-80 hands per shoe, that's over 22,000 hands played.

3) Just like you would expect, in some shoes, this was way off, while in others the advantage was as much as 8-to-1!

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So my question is this:

Can enough of us look at our old shoes ( actually played) to see if my experience is a fluke??

Most, important, Is this an exploitable advantage? In other words, can we make money from this? Would it help to influence your bet progressions, no matter what strategy you were using?

Frankly, I do not know the answer...

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If you think this is radical, wait until you see my next post about what I have observed happens after a 3-in-a-row, 4-in-a-row, 5-in-a-row, etc...it is even more thought-provoking...

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Thanks to all for their insight and response. I am anxious to hear your comments. Email me or call me.

kachatz1

kachatz@treomanagement.com

850-687-3128

[How to Win]

Hello, everyone.

i just joined the member private forum about 10 days ago, but have been playing Baccarat for years.

I met with another Forum private member several days ago, and he was very gracious to help explain some of the concepts employed by BTC members, and after our meeting I went down to the Casino and played four shoes with a renewed sense of confidence and understanding!

--Tonight, he directed me to Mreteuya's thread and I can really understand the value in this stuff!

I, too play only to win $$, and average about 10 shoes a week in live casinos.

This stuff is great, and it is "for real"...I am still learning the acronyms used for the various betting strategies and progressions, but my favorite one of all time is CASH ( no acronym needed)

Thanks and keep up the great reporting!

[Re: The Universal Baccarat System]

IV, hit Baccarat, then Universal , then go to thread New Members Start here. The forum is confusing at first but that will give you a good start. You don't have to download anything. That thread will start you off with OTB4L.

I just picked up on this site a few days ago, and I am very excited to become a member...do you offer a credit card payment option other than paypal?