kachatz1
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Posts posted by kachatz1
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OK, I would not bet the 2nd hand at all since I don't know the history of that shoe color.
Although given the time of day and the crowded conditions, if I was forced to bet by a must bet every hand casino rule, and the casino won't let you bet both P and B, I would bet P because P is both the OTB4L bet and the F bet and old cards tend to lean toward streak. But since you told us there were other players in the game, it is likely I wouldn't have to bet so I wouldn't.
BTW, is that a lathe in your picture?
No lathe, but it was a Player.
I did not bet again, since it was only the second hand.
So, so far we have:
P8 B5 Player wins.
P8 B3 Player wins.
And the next hand, what will it be? Again, for me no bet just yet.
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Had an interesting thought, one I thought all participants on this forum might like and find extremely beneficial.
For those of you who arttended the seminar in PA a few months back, you will remember I conducted the same sort of exercise with Ellis and seminar participants at that venue.
It works like this:
I played several shoes at Potowatomi Casino in Milwaukee last night. nothing particularly unusual or stressful, just plain old shoes that came out of the shufflemaster.
For me to simply post the results would be rather boring to virtually anyone who has played a lot of Bac, and uninspiring to those of you who are "newer" to the game.
So instead of posting a whole shoe all at once, I will post the actual results one hand at a time, and after each successive hand, as the shoe unfolds I will ask Ellis and ANYONE else who wishes to comment to post their thoughts on whether the next hand will be P or B or T ( I am including Ties as even though they have no basis in our betting outcome in terms of $$ won/lost, I think it only fair you can see them so at least you see the entire shoe exactly as it u:frown::frown:nfolded)
Also, I will post the numerical outcome of each hand, including ties, lest this helps you chart your play.
The only thing that I ask, that to be helpful to the group is that you explain your reasoning for your "next bet". how much you bet and why you chose to bet that way.
Keep track of your own score, and for arguments sake, your maximum starting bankroll is 20 units.
You can quit the shoe at any time, or you can enter wherever you like...just like the real world.
I will post my selections as well, and why I made them.
I hopeyou willl participate, and I think we can learn a lot from this as a group helping one another.
Here goes with the first hand
P8( natural), B5 Player wins. I did not bet as this was the first hand of the shoe.
Ellis and anyone wants to play along, what is your "bet" for the next hand?
Remember to explain your rationale, including AMOUNT BET IN UNITS and WHY/WHAT ARE YOU DOING( Sap, NOR, system 40, OT4BL, etc. etc.)
Thanks and good luck to all!
I will post the next hand after I get at least one reply. Reminder this is a real shoe, played 10/19/2011 beginning at approximately 9pm.CST. There were between 6 and 8 players at all times, and the conditions in the casino were generally crowded and a bit "smoky". There was one other Bac table open.
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Is Baccarat beatable?
The first thing you need to know is that, unlike Blackjack, Baccarat is a 50/50 game. This means that Baccarat, in the long run, has a 50% hands won rate. If you simply flipped a coin you would win half the hands over time. Commission is simply the money we pay the casino to deal the cards. It has nothing to do with the odds of the game any more than tips we give the waitress.
In Blackjack, by comparison, the perfect Basic Strategy player has only a 43% hands won rate. He must employ skill to overcome that starting deficit just to break even. Meanwhile the Baccarat Player is starting out even with a 50% hands won rate. Any skill he can impart to the game from there is profit once we overcome commission. And the way I'm going to teach you how to play Baccarat, commission is ignorable.
We can ignore commission. First, commission is only a tiny fraction of casino Baccarat profits and is only 1.25% of the money we bet. Casino Baccarat profits are about 26% of our buy in money. Yes, right! This means that the avg. Baccarat player plays worse than simply flipping a coin. Ha, much like Wall Street. He finds a way to lose far more than the odds of the game dictate.
This should give you your first clue. You should be wondering, if the avg. player loses more than the game odds dictate shouldn't there be some sort of opposite way to play that wins? Answer: YES, absolutely! It works both ways. Baccarat is, in fact, beatable. Again, forget commission. Baccarat Players, en masse, lose far more than commission in a suppossedly 50/50 game. This SHOULD be impossible. But there it is and mandatory casino Baccarat profit reports prove this very conclusively. Not even close. So yes, there is a way to win. But you'll never find it on your own. Thousands have tried and failed. So what about internet "systems"?
Internet Baccarat Systems:
This brings up the next thing you must know. Watch my lips: ALL MECHANICAL BACCARAT SYSTEMS ARE BREAK EVEN - then you owe commission. All internet systems are mechanical systems and they ALL break even. It is just a question of time. No matter how clever or sophisticated they are, THEY ALL BREAK EVEN.
That is not just my opinion. I'm sorry but that is pure and clear mathematical FACT. Any qualified mathematician will tell you this. So will all of my students. Together, they have tried EVERY system on the internet. The sorry fact is, NONE of them work. They can't. It is mathematically impossible. Millions of dollars have been wasted on worthless systems.
How and Why do Baccarat players lose far more than the game odds dictate?
In a word, because they play BACKWARDS. - just as the above would imply. They know the normal frequency of events. For instance they know that there should be a one in a row every 4 plays, a 2 every 8 plays, a 3 every 16 plays an so forth. We call that the 50% rule. Others call it random math. There should be an Opposite (when the opposite side wins) every two plays and a Repeat (same side Repeats) every two plays. Then, when an event, such as 2 in a rows, gets behind, (we call that a bias) they bet it will catch up. In other words, they are playing catch up.
WHY do they play this way?
Because they know that eventually all Baccarat "events" work out to their "normal frequency of occurrence". And because formal Baccarat training programs teach this way. There is a popular program on the internet that teaches exactly this way. And casino training programs teach this method - which should make you suspicious right off the bat. Good Grief! Do you really think they want you to win? Get real! This "catchup" approach to the game is DIRECTLY responsible for the fact that per capita casino Baccarat profits (% of drop) have gone from 3% in the early '90s to 26% today. That is nearly a 900% increase in casino profits with no corresponding change in the rules or the odds of the game. Doesn't that make you a little suspicious of the way the game is taught and the way most people play? Or do you suppose that players somehow got 900% stupider over 20 years? Maybe something in the water? Well, I've been playing this game for 30 years and I watched this all unfold on a day by day basis. I was incredulous! So, by the way, were the casinos. Baccarat went from zilch to the #1 casino profit maker virtually overnight. The very last thing I wanted to do was whatever the hell those guys were doing. So I went my own way and I have been beating this game for 30 years. But I also got barred from virtually every casino in the land. I don't want you making the same mistake I made so NOR will include instruction on how to keep from getting barred. Eventually that will become your primary concern but we've got a lot of ground to cover first.
Why is this Baccarat approach Backwards?
Well, again, in a word, when you play this traditional way You will soon be wishing you had done the exact OPPOSITE. You will be playing exactly like the losers - exactly like the rest of the players at the table. And they lose to a seemingly impossible 26% in the very game that has the very best starting odds in the whole casino. 50/50 plus 1.25% commission. God! You litterally have to know how to lose at that uncanny rate. It should be impossible. But, I'll bet that you KNOW by now that it isn't - especially if you've been playing one of those "can't lose" systems you bought on the internet. God help us!
Common sense suggests that we play this traditional catch up approach. It SEEMS right. But Baccarat is one of those cases where common sense leads us astray. 26% astray! Yes, all events eventually work out to their normal frequencies of occurrence. But the key word is EVENTUALLY. Over MANY shoes. Over SINGLE shoes (that's the way we play this game) normal frequencies strongly tend to go further away from normal. They don't catch up. I can GUARANTEE you have never seen a shoe where all the events worked out to their normal frequencies - NEVER! Math simply doesn't know that it is supposed to break even every 72 plays. Math plays by its OWN rules - not yours. You are playing BACKWARDS. You need to learn how to play FRONTWARDS. It makes life a hell of a lot easier! Then Baccarat will start making sense to you. You need to stop playing AGAINST biases and learn how to play WITH biases. THEN you will start seeing that Baccarat, in fact, really does offer the best odds in the whole casino.
Look, any seasoned player KNOWS that there are Streaky shoes and there are Choppy shoes and there are Neutral shoes. Yep, they KNOW that but then proceed to bet directly against what they KNOW because that is what seems natural and everybody else is doing it. Watch my lips: EVERYBODY ELSE LOSES! And they lose at impossible rates. Forget what people SAY they do. Profit reports don't lie. People do!
OK, that said, what you need now is a simple systematic and conservative way to recognize and play biases. That brings up NOR. Oh, and one thing NOR is, it's conservative. It never bets more than 5 units and most shoes, not even that.
Ha, somebody sent me yet another system just yesterday to critique. I see in his first shoe he is already down -12 units in the first column (first 20 plays) and as if to add insult to injury he's now about to make a 14 unit bet. Look, what does -12 tell you??? It tells you you are playing STUPID. What is the LAST thing you want to do when you are playing stupid? Make a big bet! What, are you nuts? That sort of thing is fine for your kitchen table play or for fooling around on your computer. But in a real casino with real money, it's suicidal! I graded that one as trash.
You know that Norcross guy? The one making all those Republicans sign those pledges? Well, I want you to sign my pledge right now. "I'll never again make a bet that could put me down more than 8 units." Sign that! Suppose all the casinos suddenly had to give back all the money anybody ever lost over 8 units. Think of how many winners that would create!
OH, and about that 14 unit bet back there: When you get into this, I'll be showing you how to judge systems. We use PA Player Advantage. That's the same as ROI Return on Investment. But one factor you look at is highest bet vs avg score. You always want your score to be several times your highest bet. 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 is good. That guy ended up with 1 to 1. That really sucks!
Who is E. Clifton Davis?
I am a 71 year old retired college Math Professor with a 160 IQ. I wrote the first Baccarat book ever written long before the internet was invented and have self published 14 Bac and BJ books including NBJ. I lived in and played Atlantic City, both BJ and Bac full time for 3 years durring the Kenny Uston era and played with him many times. But unlike Kenny I never had a losing day in those 3 years of full time play. I think that A.C. record still stands today. I was high money winner in the World Baccarat Championship. I have been teaching Bac and BJ for 25 years. I caused controversy on the internet by calling card counting a scam - which it is and has been ever since the casinos came up with multideck BJ with the cut off card. So I have many very vocal enemies on the internet. I once challenged the card counters to a duel and 5 actually showed up. We played. They all lost at the same table I won big time. I am the only instructor I know of who puts his money where his mouth is and frequently plays along side his players.
I have conducted some 300 Live public exhibitions in BJ and Bac throughout the US, Canada and the islands without ever losing a single one. Perhaps the most infamous was Taj 1 and 2 wherein both times I won $10,000 within a half hour W/O betting over $200 at the same $100 BJ table.
But here's the thing. Unless you were at one of these events for all you know I could be Joe Schmo from Alamo. Such is the internet. Anybody can be whoever they want. It never occurred to me that I might be needing to prove all this one day. In fact I didn't realize at the time that is was all that unusual. So, when guys said to me prove it, I was left scratching my head. So on my last exhibition I invited an unknown outsider along to be your eyes and ears. Dave is a professional Math head. On his own blog after thorough study he declared Bac unbeatable and went on official record saying so. You couldn't ask for a more qualified skeptic to be your eyes and ears. Dave wrote a very thorough report complete with photographs. To read Dave's outstanding report go here:
http://imspirit.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/ellis-nor-seminar-pa-field-trip-ac/
Are you back?
Sure, any skilled Baccarat player can win six shoes in a row perhaps even at 4 different tables in two different casinos. But any Bac or BJ expert will tell you it is impossible to do this while achieving a 26% overall P.A. Ha, maybe for card counters who can't seem to make 0.5% P.A. but, not for NOR it isn't. I played right by the book! Now you know!
Met a lot of 160'ers from an IQ standpoint.
Very few as "grounded" as Dr. Ellis ( I just conferred an extra level of responsibility and accountability on him).
Anyone wants to see the results in Chicago, meet me at the Rivers Casino anytime. Just pm me to set it up.
Or, if you like Milwaukee better, it's Potowatami.
If you like Mississippi, I play in Biloxi.
And, I'll memtion Vegas for those of you who need a SIN in your city to feel whole.
Finally, if you want to go international, I will meet you in Macau, but I only go there 1X per year.
Never met someone quite like Dr.Ellis... but you will have to do the "heavy lifting" ( meaning play the game he teaches...)
I win most every shoe because of him. I only wish I had the time to find a golf instructor with whom I could lean enough to lower my abysmal handicap by 10 strokes...
I get paid nada/nothing for this post. I just feel strongly about this issue.
I do not post shoes, as I do not even know how, nor do I want to learn. I CAN and will work with you to show you how / why I win...and the 3 worst things that will hurt you big time and negatively affect the outcome of your results.
PM me at your leisure, and good luck to you.
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Hello everyone, I am a Peruvian baccarat player, I am new here and very impressed with the content. I wish I had visited this forum several years ago.
I am seriously thinking of buying access to the private NOR forum. I have read some posts and is it real that NOR can gives you about 10 units per shoe aprox.? if it is right it is awesome.
As I am new in this forum I have some question for Ellis or some other member that could help me:
1. Does NOR have a strategy to play all hands in the shoe or its strategy is when it reaches a take profit then leave the table? I prefer to play the entire shoe because the Casino where I go has some hours during the day that is empty, the baccarat tables are empty just me playing and I can't let the shoe in half.
2. is NOR already finished or it is improving with time.
3. In the Private Forum are there samples shoes or videos to learn NOR faster?
4. In the private forum the members talk about their shoes? can they upload their shoes to evaluate? I would like to have an idea how is to be a private member that I can't find here in the public forum
Thanks in advice for your time
Danicito-
I have never been to Peru and I do not speak Spanish, but I can say with certainty that joining this forum will improve your Baccarat and Blackjack play immeasurably.
I used to play both, but my opinion is that BAC gives you a much greater chance of winning, and the ideas and concepts presented in this forum's private member section are very valuable.
For the last 10 years I have played Baccarat about 95% and Blackjack about 5% of the time. I joined the forum about 18 months ago, and like you, I wish I would have discovered it way earlier!
The private forum content is excellent, the disciplines necessary to win most of your shoes are explained crisply and in detail, and I have profited many times over the investment to join. All that said, you WILL NOT win every shoe, and it will take every measure of your willingness and commitment to practice the teachings on this forum to become a better player.
It is no different than thinking that just because you can ride a bicycle down the street, you can safely ride a motorcyle through the Andes mountains...or just because you can kick a ball, you will become an accomplished soccer player...in both cases, it takes many hours of learning, lots of practice, and the discipline to follow the guidelines taught to you by someone who really knows what they are talking about.
And it is not just from Ellis, but you will find the teachings and experience of many other forum members who have spent years formulating the best strategies for play.
I wish you well, and welcome.
( By the way, I really love to play both games - Baccarat and Blackjack - at a table with nobody else around, as I find that my decision-making is at its best w/o any distractions. Pehaps I am unusual in that regard, but you have my word that whether playing with a full house, in a casino with one table or 10 tables, by yourself or with others, you will really find a lot of good things here...)
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Joeystyle and LENNY181 have both reminded me that I promised to post a few things that realy help me out when playing Baccarat, after I returned from the seminar.
Sorry it took so long. BOTH OF THESE THINGS I DISCUSSED IN FRONT OF THE GROUP AT THE SEMINAR.
Let me say at the outset that neither is directly related to NOR, but these two things have to do more with the simple math of baccarat and are complementary to NOR play, just like the O/R count and the SAP count.
1) I keep track of the numerical "score" of the Player and Banker hands after each hand has been played. Example : After hand # 1, I record that the P has a 3, and the Bank has won with a 4 ( 4 beats 3)...After hand # 2, I note that the P has a 6, but was again beaten by the B which recorded a 7....and on and on, for the entire shoe...
HOW DOES THIS HELP ME, AND WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE? To me, it makes a lot-of-difference, as over the course of the shoe, if I see one side is getting a lot of 8's and 9's, and the other side is getting a lot of low 0's, 1's and 2's I will tend to use this information towards calculating my larger bets. Exactly how I use this I will explain below in (2)
2) When i play Baccarat, I am a firm believer that the longer I play any given session ( even just paper betting and recording the results), the more likely that the basic math of baccarat will come into play. Ellis has writtten a lot about the stats of a typical shoe ( so many 1 events in a row, so many 2 events in a row, so many 3 events in a row, etc), and there are numerous posts throuhout the forum about the exact probabilities of each event.
We all come to learn that no two shoes are exactly the same, but we will in the course of our play observe a fair # of shoes in which the number of 1-in-a-row events, and the number of 2-in-a-row events ( like PP or BB), etc. come out pretty even with the statistical norm. Again, lots of posts on this subject in the forum.
So how I exploit this is simple. If in the first shoe I notice that there is a shortage of 1-in-a-rows, or 2-in-a-rows, etc. as compared to the normal stats of the game, or that P has far exceeded B in the actual number of results ( or vice-versa B is way ahead of the P's), in the next shoe I will be looking for the Oddities that really stand out to "reverse course" and get back towards a more normal distibution.
I call this REGRESSION TO THE MEAN, or simply, a return towards a more normal distribution of events.
Important to understand, that every shoe has it's quirks, so this is not a method that I rely on solely to steer my betting strategies, and NOR tells us to "follow the shoe" in current play. By the same token, the longer and further away something gets from the normal distribution of events, the more-and-more likely I BELIEVE it will "tend towards" a return back in the direction of the normal distribution of events, when factoring in ALL PLAYS SO FAR IN A GIVEN SESSION/ SERIES OF SHOES PLAYED OVER THE COURSE OF PLAYING 2,3,4 OR MORE SHOES IN A ROW.
This may sound "difficult" to undestand, so I will clarify it as follows:
Any good bac player learns that it is very valuable to keep their scorecards, and go back over them to see what they could have done better...so what I do is after each shoe is completeIi record on the top of the card the number of how many times a given event occured ( like 1-in -a-row, 2,3,4,5,6 etc-in-a-row, as well as P and B totals). After the second shoe played, I record the same info, but I also add to that shoe's results the results from shoe #1 for a cumulative total. After shoe 3, I add in the results from shoe 1 and 2, et. etc. for as long as my session lasts.
I am no math professor, but I can assure you that the longer you play in a given session, the more likely the cumulative results will parallel the theoretical results ( statistical probabilities of an event occuring, as described above...read all about these in posts on this forum...).So while shoe #1 may have had a lot of , say, 2-in-a-row events, even way out of the normal 25% probability, by the time you are done playing for the night and you have added up the results from all shoes played during that session, lo-and-behold, the more you play, the more likely it becomes that the 2-in-a-rows added up from all the shoes will be about 25% of all plays!
Same for 1's, 3's. 4's, etc. as well as P and B.
Will it be exact? NO,but trust me when I say that I have used this method very successfully over many years now to help me exploit betting opportunities.
So here are some real world examples:
a) within a shoe, if P is getting all the natural 8's and 9's, the longer this goes the more I am going to watch for an opportunity that matches up with NOR play to bet larger amounts on a hand where I think the B will win, especially if the shoe so far has a big disparity like I described.
within a shoe, let's say it looks like this: PPP B PP B PPP B PP B PPPP B Yes i am going to follow the shoe, but if the numerical values of the scores tells me B is "overdue" for a natural 8 or 9, or P is due for a low score, it is likely that I will bet on that 2nd B coming out, instead of always switching to P after 1 B. Again, the farther the game gets from a normal distribution of events, the more likely it will eventuall return to the normal probabilitiesc) playing shoe#2 in a session, or shoe#3 in a session I simply am on the lookout for events which have steered away from the normal probabilities, and look for good opportunites within the shoe being played ( again with NOR guidance) to exploit these anomalies and "bet" that the REGRESSION TO THE MEAN will come into play
In summary, I am not advocating to play against NOR, I am simply using the concepts of the numerical P/B discrepancies and REGRESSION TO THE MEAN to help me identify points in the shoe where I can "augment" my NOR play with a couple of other elements that the game delivers. Just like O/R count, just like SAP
I am not advocating you try this right away, but instead look back at your cards, practice these approaches, and i think you will be pleasantly surprised at your results.
Will you be right every time? of course not.
Does this replace NOR? absolutely not
But is what I am talking about really just the 5th grade math of Bac? YES!
So, are you smarter than a 5th grader?
THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS THIS...wanna' win? You start first-and-foremost with the BASIC MATH of probabilities of flipping-a coin.
If you can accept that fact, you are ready to learn...if not, best of luck ( you likely have little chance of success )
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I thought its a really nice gesture on the part of Keith and Ellis to reduce the price on the second part of the video. As much as this is an instructional forum to exchange thoughts and ideas on how to slay the proverbial "dragon" of a casino (and no I don't mean the 40:1 odds one), I look at this whole concept here as a business and as school. As a student, if you want to learn and develop skills which in the future will earn you an income, you need to pay to able to learn. In the same sense, as a person pays for a personal trainer to help them get their body in shape,or take golf,tennis or even piano lessons, there is a fee involved. The fact that what we are paying to learn here can parlay into earning a tidy income with a skill that is recession proof is something to behold. I come from a philosophy that one should pay for a service given. In truth, I really believe the fees should have been much higher for videos. I admit to being a serial purchaser of several baccarat systems. All of these "gurus" tell you beforehand of how there will be ample support to justify the prices of their course. YEAH, RIGHT! I know if I feel blessed to actually be involved with persons of integrity here, who actually walk the walk and talk the talk.
I feel more confident now going walking into a casino in AC as I will be doing this coming week. I realize I have a long way to go before I can actually say I am good Baccarat player. Each day I see a little light at the end of tunnel here. The guys and gals sitting next to me at BAC aren't armed with the tools as I am. I just have to learn to use them correctly. Thanks to all of you who makes this all possible.
Be Well
Joey
It is so recession -proof, I am teaching my kids to play. AT FIRST, IT WAS LIKE YEAH, YEAH DAD IS A COMPULSIVE GAMBLER...NOW IT IS LIKE, THEIR FRIENDS AE CALLING ME...
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Joeystyle and LENNY181 have both reminded me that I promised to post a few things that realy help me out when playing Baccarat, after I returned from the seminar.
Sorry it took so long. BOTH OF THESE THINGS I DISCUSSED IN FRONT OF THE GROUP AT THE SEMINAR.
Let me say at the outset that neither is directly related to NOR, but these two things have to do more with the simple math of baccarat and are complementary to NOR play, just like the O/R count and the SAP count.
1) I keep track of the numerical "score" of the Player and Banker hands after each hand has been played. Example : After hand # 1, I record that the P has a 3, and the Bank has won with a 4 ( 4 beats 3)...After hand # 2, I note that the P has a 6, but was again beaten by the B which recorded a 7....and on and on, for the entire shoe...
HOW DOES THIS HELP ME, AND WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE? To me, it makes a lot-of-difference, as over the course of the shoe, if I see one side is getting a lot of 8's and 9's, and the other side is getting a lot of low 0's, 1's and 2's I will tend to use this information towards calculating my larger bets. Exactly how I use this I will explain below in (2)
2) When i play Baccarat, I am a firm believer that the longer I play any given session ( even just paper betting and recording the results), the more likely that the basic math of baccarat will come into play. Ellis has writtten a lot about the stats of a typical shoe ( so many 1 events in a row, so many 2 events in a row, so many 3 events in a row, etc), and there are numerous posts throuhout the forum about the exact probabilities of each event.
We all come to learn that no two shoes are exactly the same, but we will in the course of our play observe a fair # of shoes in which the number of 1-in-a-row events, and the number of 2-in-a-row events ( like PP or BB), etc. come out pretty even with the statistical norm. Again, lots of posts on this subject in the forum.
So how I exploit this is simple. If in the first shoe I notice that there is a shortage of 1-in-a-rows, or 2-in-a-rows, etc. as compared to the normal stats of the game, or that P has far exceeded B in the actual number of results ( or vice-versa B is way ahead of the P's), in the next shoe I will be looking for the Oddities that really stand out to "reverse course" and get back towards a more normal distibution.
I call this REGRESSION TO THE MEAN, or simply, a return towards a more normal distribution of events.
Important to understand, that every shoe has it's quirks, so this is not a method that I rely on solely to steer my betting strategies, and NOR tells us to "follow the shoe" in current play. By the same token, the longer and further away something gets from the normal distribution of events, the more-and-more likely I BELIEVE it will "tend towards" a return back in the direction of the normal distribution of events, when factoring in ALL PLAYS SO FAR IN A GIVEN SESSION/ SERIES OF SHOES PLAYED OVER THE COURSE OF PLAYING 2,3,4 OR MORE SHOES IN A ROW.
This may sound "difficult" to undestand, so I will clarify it as follows:
Any good bac player learns that it is very valuable to keep their scorecards, and go back over them to see what they could have done better...so what I do is after each shoe is completeIi record on the top of the card the number of how many times a given event occured ( like 1-in -a-row, 2,3,4,5,6 etc-in-a-row, as well as P and B totals). After the second shoe played, I record the same info, but I also add to that shoe's results the results from shoe #1 for a cumulative total. After shoe 3, I add in the results from shoe 1 and 2, et. etc. for as long as my session lasts.
I am no math professor, but I can assure you that the longer you play in a given session, the more likely the cumulative results will parallel the theoretical results ( statistical probabilities of an event occuring, as described above...read all about these in posts on this forum...).So while shoe #1 may have had a lot of , say, 2-in-a-row events, even way out of the normal 25% probability, by the time you are done playing for the night and you have added up the results from all shoes played during that session, lo-and-behold, the more you play, the more likely it becomes that the 2-in-a-rows added up from all the shoes will be about 25% of all plays!
Same for 1's, 3's. 4's, etc. as well as P and B.
Will it be exact? NO,but trust me when I say that I have used this method very successfully over many years now to help me exploit betting opportunities.
So here are some real world examples:
a) within a shoe, if P is getting all the natural 8's and 9's, the longer this goes the more I am going to watch for an opportunity that matches up with NOR play to bet larger amounts on a hand where I think the B will win, especially if the shoe so far has a big disparity like I described.
within a shoe, let's say it looks like this: PPP B PP B PPP B PP B PPPP B Yes i am going to follow the shoe, but if the numerical values of the scores tells me B is "overdue" for a natural 8 or 9, or P is due for a low score, it is likely that I will bet on that 2nd B coming out, instead of always switching to P after 1 B. Again, the farther the game gets from a normal distribution of events, the more likely it will eventuall return to the normal probabilitiesc) playing shoe#2 in a session, or shoe#3 in a session I simply am on the lookout for events which have steered away from the normal probabilities, and look for good opportunites within the shoe being played ( again with NOR guidance) to exploit these anomalies and "bet" that the REGRESSION TO THE MEAN will come into play
In summary, I am not advocating to play against NOR, I am simply using the concepts of the numerical P/B discrepancies and REGRESSION TO THE MEAN to help me identify points in the shoe where I can "augment" my NOR play with a couple of other elements that the game delivers. Just like O/R count, just like SAP
I am not advocating you try this right away, but instead look back at your cards, practice these approaches, and i think you will be pleasantly surprised at your results.
Will you be right every time? of course not.
Does this replace NOR? absolutely not
But is what I am talking about really just the 5th grade math of Bac? YES!
So, are you smarter than a 5th grader?
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I think it is important that we all help one another, the end result for all will be more $$...sure it is fun to play, but not as much fun when you are at the table winning and everyone is looking at you wondering what you are doing that is working so well.
I hope you guys decide to do the Vegas seminar...anybody buys those tapes and watches them a few times + studies their NOR manual til they know it well enough so they are compfortable with all kinds of shoes, plays in real casinos for real world expeience, and gets their mind around a sound MM strategy works for their bankroll IS GOING TO BE A BIG, BIG WINNER when they get to see you and Mr. Smith in action on the Glitter Gulch Strip.
Viva Las Vegas!! If Elvis only knew how right he was...
IMO
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All-
I was at the seminar,and there is no doubt that meeting Ellis and Keith, watching them play and observing Ellis demonstrating the finer points of NOR was well worth the trip.
If the video is even half as good as the seminar was, it will be the second best investment you will ever make...the first was when you decided to invest your time and $$ to be part of this forum.
Been playing Bac for 15 years, and there is always more to learn. And I feel certain that to have those vidoes at your disposal, coupled with the NOR manual, will really improve your bankroll. You willprofit many times over the cost of the video!
Well worth the investment, especially if you follow Ellis' teachings...
Good luck to all!
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Would like us to remove all 4 SALE SIGNS off of the Forum...up to the Forum moderators to decide.
IMO, really cheapens our efforts
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Ellis-
I will be in about 5 pm and will call you once I arrive.
Thanks for the offer...I can also just grab a cab if you are busy then...looking forward to it!
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Forget the fact that this may/may not be Ellis' grand hurrah ( lkely he outlives us all!)
Ignore the assumption that these kind of seminars are typically B.O.R.I.N.G. If you want to evaluate how-to?/can-I?/Is-it-possible to make a living playing BAC?, you should attend! You CAN make a lot of $$ at this..I do, and I will tell you How, Where and Why it happens....
Don't think for one minute that all you will see/learn is already on the website...NOR is pretty good ( No, it is really good... but TRUST ME, THERE ARE LOTS OF POTHOLES AND LOOPHOLES IN IT'S EXECUTION YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF) ...but I plan to introduce two earth-moving concepts to augment NOR that if you play without, you are just leaving big $$ on the table)
Every one of us has been a 'dreamer" at one time or another...In the last 18 months, BTC converted me from dreaming-about-playing for the dough to consistent-big/big winner. And I will demonstrate this at the seminar ( sorry, I play so much, and I have a 10 hour/day real job, that I simply do not have the time to just "post" my actual shoe results, and deal with all the the resultant emails/ questions/comments I do not have time to answer..) JUST WHAT THOSE TWO LITTLE SECRETS ARE...I am willing to share...No, I am not a maverick, and I will not charge a nickel for any of this, but since I am devoting my entire weekend to the seminar, I will only detail it then-and-there....
This is the real deal, my friends, but you miss this, and you miss out on thousands-upon-thousands of winning $$ bets over the life of a Bac careeer... don't have a lifetime?? TRY A WEEK'S WORTH OF BETS...or, just one day, just one BET could get it all back for you...no promoises, just some indisputable facts about the game...you decide.
Cannot believe you will pass this one up...promise to see you there and trade a few secrests even Ellis has not exploited ( he is very, very smart, but I only "get it" about 1/3 of what he is saying...how about you?)
As always, I wish you all only the BEST!
PS. This is the Keith/Ellis show...not mine....I just want you to know that to spend a grand or so on seminar/hotel/flights is a lot of $$, but you will NOT be disappointed...I have never met either Ellis or Keith, but anyone who knows me quickly understands ain't no fooling around...It is THEIR SHOW, and I promise only to "speak when spoken to"
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Forget the fact that this may/may not be Ellis' grand hurrah ( lkely he outlives us all!)
Ignore the assumption that these kind of seminars are typically B.O.R.I.N.G. If you want to evaluate how-to?/can-I?/Is-it-possible to make a living playing BAC?, you should attend! You CAN make a lot of $$ at this..I do, and I will tell you How, Where and Why it happens....
Don't think for one minute that all you will see/learn is already on the website...NOR is pretty good ( No, it is really good... but TRUST ME, THERE ARE LOTS OF POTHOLES AND LOOPHOLES IN IT'S EXECUTION YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF) ...but I plan to introduce two earth-moving concepts to augment NOR that if you play without, you are just leaving big $$ on the table)
Every one of us has been a 'dreamer" at one time or another...In the last 18 months, BTC converted me from dreaming-about-playing for the dough to consistent-big/big winner. And I will demonstrate this at the seminar ( sorry, I play so much, and I have a 10 hour/day real job, that I simply do not have the time to just "post" my actual shoe results, and deal with all the the resultant emails/ questions/comments I do not have time to answer..) JUST WHAT THOSE TWO LITTLE SECRETS ARE...I am willing to share...No, I am not a maverick, and I will not charge a nickel for any of this, but since I am devoting my entire weekend to the seminar, I will only detail it then-and-there....
This is the real deal, my friends, but you miss this, and you miss out on thousands-upon-thousands of winning $$ bets over the life of a Bac careeer... don't have a lifetime?? TRY A WEEK'S WORTH OF BETS...or, just one day, just one BET could get it all back for you...no promoises, just some indisputable facts about the game...you decide.
Cannot believe you will pass this one up...promise to see you there and trade a few secrests even Ellis has not exploited ( he is very, very smart, but I only "get it" about 1/3 of what he is saying...how about you?)
As always, I wish you all only the BEST!
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and i now get the picture ''Play what is happening'' what a thought
So very, very true...4 simple words...PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING..
Not sure anyone of us could have put it any better! No matter the casino, no matter the country you are in, no matter if everyone else at the table speaks a different language than you do, or dresses differently, or W.H.A.T.E.V.E.R.
Rule #1:PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING
Rule #2:( reread rule #1)
Just write it in the margin of your scorecard, and when in doubt, just think of those 4 little words...very powerful reminder to us all, no matter what our language, what system we prefer, whether we "score" the game using our Bac cards vertically or horizontally...as the shoe unfolds, and "reveals itself", just
PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING.
Thanks for putting it so simply, TangNangDoaHoa !!
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over $3.1k??? holy shit.....
Using Black chips, that is the situation. Used a modest 2,3,4 progression where i thought it made sense.
Took me about 2 hours ( 1.3 shoes...)
So + 31 units, expressed in BTC terms
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OK, so it's another day...
Pick your poison...
(OOps, I did it again...Brittney Spears or I Shot the Sheriff,, Clapton or Marley, pick it)
Decided it was unfair to just say I did it, w/o proving I could do it again...
well...........yes and no.
So I went back to the Lions' Den that is the new Rivers Casino, and YES I escaped with a $3100 win, but there is a story behind this,,,( go figure)
Thought I was just takin' candy from a baby, until...
I went to cash out.
That's when my troubles began.
Did I have a driver's license? ( No , I just have the keys to my car)
Did I know my social security # ? ( yeah , but years of that buzzing noise from Jack's Total Juicer had me in a tizzy, hard to remember the #...)
OOps, maybe I should have shot-the-sheriff right there....WRONG!!
OK, so NOR is an established/verified/slam-dunk
But DO NOT try to escape the claws of JohnyEYEinTheSkyLaw...he is watching, he is waiting..........and he's got his eyes on U
Got to the cage, and they had me dialed in, within minutes a few beef-cake Security -types ( and one GF I would'a done in a NY minute!) converged on the xene...lots of talking, wanted to keep,my $$ ( buy-in + win...ouch!), I just played it COOL ( asked one of the 20-something security-guards if they were feeling "lucky", they did not get the "punk part")
'til finally they relented and gave me my $$ ( Oh, did I mention I was at the cage for more than 1 hour?)
Anyone ever watch the movie CASINO? Thought this doesn't happen anymore?
Winner, winner...there is a reason they give you a Chicken dinner ( to cool you off)
Nothing broken, here ( bones, i mean) ........... the NOR is ever powerful, and doubtful you will run into the SHERIFF, but keep your hands to yourself
Again, nothing but the CHOP, and nothing a little diagnostic O/R charting+ SAP could not handle..
C U in Harrisburg.
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Keith-
I just booked my ticket...hoping to not just participate in THE NOR SEMINAR, but also play with you guys, have a few cocktails, recount a few war stories, etc. and on Sunday am I have left plenty of time for meet/greet/share/exchange ideas/ show- and -tell ( yes, I hope everyone brings some of their actual played-shoe cards!)
I expect to get a lot out of this exchange, and especially establish a closer contact with those of you in our community who know we can/do/will BEAT THE CASINO
In the meantime, good luck to all...and I am asking you, Keith to put me down for a room 2 nights...arrive Friday and depart Sunday...PM me if you need anything in the meantime...
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OK, well said. I'll take this under advisement.
So I will tittle this post " IF I FELL IN LOVE WITH YOU" ( google the lyrics, it's an old Beatles song...listen to the words, and you ( whoever is reading this) will understand...))
Just visited the newly opened ( July 18, 2011) Rivers Casino in Des Plains, IL...just a quick cab ride from the O'Hare Chicago airport for those of you out-of-town ...
Made an absolute killing on each of the 5 tables open, and they were all CHOP-CHOP-SUEY, for 8 hours!!!!!
Anyone doubts NOR, p-u-l-l-e-z-e PM me!!
So simple, so easy...and due to mostly to System 40 I barely broke a sweat...results over $10 large in a few portions of a few shoes...
As always, I met with all the usual suspects...
The person(s) who finally just followed me.. most of the BAC table hounds
The person(s) who thought I was "just lucky" and started betting against me...only to decide better that GIMME' SHELTER had better lyrics and they moved to another table...
The newbie Casino Pit Boss ( remember, this is a brand new casino...) who tried to stare-me-down , and acted like he even had a clue what the game is all about...WHAZZUP' WID ' DAT?
bottom line if you are:
1) on the fence about PA 8/13, get yourself a ticket before it is sold out!
2) one of those other forum types who think you have to run Zumma or Total Gym ( something like that) to prove for the millenium that "this thing works"
3) in need of a quick fix to your bankroll and confidence
highly recommend you take the redeye to Chicago, and get yourself to the Rivers Casino B4 they figure it out
even better, get with the boys and see what NOR is really all about! Cannot believe this thing is only $300, and don't spend it if you "get it", but for those of you still doubting THE POWER, just PM me.....you will be amazed at the effect it can have on your game...
Good luck to all...
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Ortho-
I had played for many years before I became a lifetime member about 1-1/2 years ago. And BTW, I never knew how much I DIDN'T know about the game before I joined, and now I win on a consistent basis, thanks to the many posts I have read here over the last 18 months. Once you start reading some of the threads, it's hard to stop...mostly, you will learn to adapt what you read to a style of play you are comfortable with.
IMO, you will recoup your investment many times over, especially if you have the patience and know how to employ the money-management methods taught here in the forum. Way better ROI than any other legitimate investment out there...
Message me anytime if I can help.
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i think DWEEZY is smoking too much of ganja...
$100,000 "zero risk"?
WTF?
Yeah, like we all knew the ( "zero risk") answer to that and we'd be wasting time sending these friggin' emails back-and-forth?
Cut him off, can ya? Or discontinue this "going nowhere thread" ?
Garnabby, is that you?
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To Dweezy, whether he is a member or not, or to anyone else interested.
The Dweeze stated that SYS 40 "worked well until it didn't"...Ha, ha...all of our methods are like this! None of them work every shoe, every situation, every day!
Ellis has done a great job of giving us the means to modify/adjust/change our approach to a given shoe/ a given set of circumstances...including IF IT A'INT WORKING, GET UP AND LEAVE! ( my words, not his...)
This is the reason for stop-losses, this is the reason for various approaches to a shoe, this is the reason we sometimes simply have to "sit out" a period and get back to "paper betting" w/o real $$ out on the table...
In the end, nothing beats 'experience', nothing beats having played a bunch of shoes in a bunch of different casinos/settings/on different days, etc.
With each successive "casino experience" , and with each step you make towards a willingness to "learn" and practice (!!) the methods explored/examined/reviewed/taught here...you will become a better player and...................
THE MORE YOU ARE LIKELY TO WIN!
Thanks Ellis, Keith, Seahog, et. al for sharing and making us all better players...
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Dweezy-
Get with the program, if you want to be THE ONE everyone looks to at the Bacc tables to follow...
You paid your dues to be a Junior Member. Best $50/month you ever spent!
If you just take a few hours to practice a few of the systems, figure out which one you like, and then apply it, you will make your money like the rest of us...
Day in, day out...you will almost always go home a winner... And even on those days you have to stick with your stop loss and go home feeling like the weakling of the 3LittlePigs clan, 'MAN-UP' and go back tomorrow to see just what a difference a day will make!
You will not win every shoe
Cannot quit at your "stop-win" ( you won your shoe goal...get out!)? or, No stop loss? You will "net" even less $$.
Not convinced of your own abilities and cannot play at least 10 shoes on any system you choose, just to prove you will win net/net after commission and including shoes you have to "bail" from due to your stop loss?
Still want to "blame everyone" for being some kind of 'scammer'?
Just try it... you will soon join BTC for life ( way cheaper than the monthly dues...)
:) :) I wish you only the best...there is no magic, the casinos are operated by a bunch of professionals with really deep pockets, and they spend their time figuring out how to find more self-doubters like The Dweeze!
Don't give in, but DO find a system on BTC you like, and for sure if you obey your stop-win ( quit while you are comfortably ahead) and stop-loss objectives, you will come back a winner...all of us here are hoping to hear the good news you will soon be posting...
Best of luck to you!
within a shoe, let's say it looks like this: PPP B PP B PPP B PP B PPPP B Yes i am going to follow the shoe, but if the numerical values of the scores tells me B is "overdue" for a natural 8 or 9, or P is due for a low score, it is likely that I will bet on that 2nd B coming out, instead of always switching to P after 1 B. Again, the farther the game gets from a normal distribution of events, the more likely it will eventuall return to the normal probabilities
Kids - do not try this at home ..we are professionals!
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted · Edited by kachatz1
spelling
Ok, Ellis NO BET and we now have a few of our private forum members chiming in...all no bets.
Well, no harm no foul...the 3rd hand turned out to be a TIE.
So we have so far:
P8 B5
P8 B3
Tie 9/9
Gentlemen, place your bets for hand 4. Me, I am betting 1 unit on the Player, as I like the fact that first 3 hands we have point value of 8,8,9 on the Player...follow the shoe.Others? Reminder to post also your MM strategy and your rationale for your bet.