kachatz1
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Posts posted by kachatz1
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Agree with Ellis on his assessment of the shoe, unfortunately Milwaukee has ONE casino, and usually only two tables open.
It was a Player result, so I will go there again for one unit on Player.
now at P241111312121 first 20 hands and P1 start of the next 20....
Stay tuned
Go figure it was a Banker, so down to two units for this shoe and I will go all in ( a whole 2 units this shoe! , but with a lot of 1's on the Banker I am in for it all -- 2 UNITS) on the Player!
WIN I am up 4 units, lose I am back to square 1...
So second column we are at P11
( table # 3 is just getting ready to open but I will wait and see if any discernible trend/ bias just as Ellis suggested!)
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Since I won't be able to make the seminar in Las Vegas I was wondering whether you are going to create a new video because of this seminar or is there only going to be the original two videos? When is the hard copy of the seminar going to be ready and what is the cost?
The PA video was going to be available for all who attended and paid the seminar fee.
Likely I missed the post but how do I get it, and will the Vegas attendees get the Vegas video at no charge?
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Dancito-
So much has been written on this topic!
If you are now a private member, I suggest you review the many, many posts so you can formulate the best possible decision theory for Dancito.
As an aside, i will ask Ellis to answer as well, as he can be very succint...BUT PLEASE, PLEASE DO READ SOME OF THE OLD POSTS!! ( very valuable stuff F2, F3, etc.)
If you are still reluctant to join, so be it, but where i live the shoes generallly run $25 min per hand, and with MM, et.c i am beting over $6,000 per shoe ( $ $600 is 10 percent of a single shoe...win just a few hands more per shoe, and in no time you are in the plus column, my friend...)And lest anyone want to know, I do this for fun, not profit for Ellis ( he and Keith are nice people, but I have plenty to do with the rest of my time...)
Still, even at the annual fee, ( same as i joined at, not monthly), you should stongly consider PRIVATE vs. PUBLIC memebership.
I will not ask you to believe me, but perhaps you can solicit some other PRIVATE FORUM member opinions...
For me, i have won 50-fold what my membership cost ( YES, net-net over $30,000)
By the same token, I have played literally/actually/for real several thousand shoes, and after so much play I have a few ideas about "shoes-I-have-seen-before", so while I am playig new shoes I do have some "feelings" about what-to-do other than just SAP, NOR, System 40, Maverick ( read the posts), F2, F3, yada yada
Do not let anyone tell you that one type of "system handles every kind-of-shoe"...it does not, so you have to have a feeling for the game...I can tell by you posts YOU ARE NOT A NOVICE, and even your questions are more about should i invest in this after ( perhaps??) some other failed "bacarat investment systems"
I could be way off base, but i will tell you this.-
1) You have seen me play a shoe likely one of the worst type, yet not afraid to make decisions acccordingly ( or sit out, as needed)
2) You cannot/will not win every shoe
3) There are those who say grab a few units and GET OUT of the shoe, and those who will say set a realistic stop-win ( get - out) and stop-loss ( get out) objective.
4) The posts you can access over the last few years are invaluable to helping you "get-it" ( but I think you are alrready way more advanced than this, ( I like to think have a pretty good sense of people and their abilities...)and likely the "holy grail" has eluded you...P.S. THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL, and no amount you pay for a system or anyone's advice will get you there every shoe!!
5) Just google the free forum BACCARATFORUMS, and if after a few days you are not nauseated by the rheotic, the BS, or the whatever...play on, and come on bac (k) pun intended
6) Sign up for the live forum December in Vegas! C 4 yourself!
I cannot help you with the price, but I CAN help you with the outcome of your investment.
Up 2 U.
And as always, good luck to all!!!!!
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Thanks kachatz1
unfortunately I am not a private member... just a public member
all I found out about F2 or F3 is that those are applied on Repeater shoes and that's what I find wierd because the current shoe looks like a choppy shoe.
well... I am going to continue following the thread because I am sure that I am going to learn a lot. thanks
Dancito
For a mere $50.00 a month you will see way , way back for seeral years.. I am not sure of your minimum bet in your country, but most BAC games in the states now $15-$25.00 minimum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Two or three shoes in 10 minutes, and you are up to speeD AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE EXPLOITS OF MANY, Many Players HAVE PLAYED FOR MANY, MANY YEARS,,
Best bargain , most assurable winninghs on the entire internet!
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I see that you guys always mention f2 is this a method or a bac term? I am just asking because I want to follow in a right way your comments.
Thanks
Dancito-
So much has been written on this topic!
If you are now a private member, I suggest you review the many, many posts so you can formulate the best possible decision theory for Dancito.
As an aside, i will ask Ellis to answer as well, as he can be very succint...BUT PLEASE, PLEASE DO READ SOME OF THE OLD POSTS!! ( very valuable stuff F2, F3, etc.)
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1's above normal,they got the 2,2's in,making 4,sap is 6,4,4,4, is this a catch up shoe,or could you bet f2,it's a setup?,go p,anyway's
Agree with Ellis on his assessment of the shoe, unfortunately Milwaukee has ONE casino, and usually only two tables open.
It was aPlayer result, so I will go there again for one unit on Player.
now at P241111312121 first 20 hands and P1 start of the next 20....
Stay tuned
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sap count,4,0,4,4,all we need are 2,2's to make 4's across,can't happen,lol.will wait to see if it is a single b
Sure enough,it was a single Banker as Player wins.
We now are as follows
P241111311
Not sure that presenting it this way helps or not, but with few real trends I decided to wait out a few hands to see what comes next. I am up a whopping two units ( less commission) at this point, but table #2 across from me was completely full ( as is this one) and table #3 has still not opened up yet as they work on the initial shuffle.
Since we all seem a bit stumped I will lay out the next five hands for you, exactly as they occurred.
P9 B5
B9 P1
P7 B3
P6 B1
B7 P0.
Sooooooo, that brings us all to the end of the first 20 Hands ( excluding one Tie)
Here is where the dhow stood
PP BBBB P B P B PPP B PP B PP B
Tired of sitting out as the play was fairly slow, so I jumped back in at this point and bet one unit on the Player, because it seemed all the bank could muster was a bunch of 1-in-a-rows after that initial run of 4B's early in the shoe and OT4BL was starting to take shape.
Anyone else?
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I'm out at -4 with a 3 bet due. Can't seem to get an answer if we are playing a random gen.
Ellis-
Not sure if i will answer corectly, but these cards came right out of the shuflemaster.
If you suspect they came fro a "random generator", then perhaps you need to tell us ALL how to identify this? I know all about table selection, etering the shoe at the optimal ( i.e." for our chosen strategy") point,etc.
But the cards dealt in this shoe were started at around 9 pm, likely been played all day...I play all the time this casino, and they DO NOT keep putting new cards in play , unless it is a new table, as I described table 3 coming on line a few hands ago ( liley to open around 10pm)...FYI, I verified with the dealer this table was open all day...THIS IS A REAL SHOE,PLAYED REAL TIME last wednesday night in Milwaukee WI.. www.paysbig.com
This is the first time I have seen you ask this question ( seems you had asked previously) ?? So not sure how to answer...maybe a good lesson for all, HOW-DOES-ONE-DETECT-THIS for absolute certainty?
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So it was a Banker winner...B5 P2
Time for me ( who is now +0 for the shoe) to a time-honored strategy seems to work for me. I wrote about it in a post titled A HORSE WITH NO NAME, dated 2/28/10
Been using it for years,when in doubt, and yes, despite the "50'50" nature of the game, just seems to work a little more than 50/50
So I am now going to back the Player for 2 units.
Read my post, 18 months + old, and you will understand. That is the beauty of this forum...you can go back, over and over, to some stuff has been written and debated before.
Who else wants to bet?
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I lost one unit on the last Player. I will lay down 2 units on Banker. I realize its early in the festivities, but we have not seen a a "3" come up yet. Hoping trend will continue, I am using SB40.
I see Ellis with a similar line of reasoning, and certainly it helps establish a sound basis for a play on the Banker.
Unfortunately, the result was P7 B4, so we now have 3 players-in-a-row...that leaves me still +1 unit for the shoe, and since we have seen a 4 in a row already I will wager 1 unit on the Player.
here is where we stand so far:
PP BBBB P B P B PPP
good luck, everyone!
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1's are screaming,my computer was still back at the last b,202 p.m post with ellis,i posted p,then saw your result,then had to repost b,hey ellis I guess with that positive count it's S40 2 like you said at 202 p.m would be a good choice
Well, pretty much we all concurred that with the "run" of 1's, best bet was on Banker.
And of course, Player comes along instead...
So now we have the following:
PP BBBB P B P B PP
6 player , 6 banker
I decided to sit this next hand out, and just wait and see. Was thinking to go right back on Banker, but this next hand was a No Bet for me.
Ideas, Ellis?
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Bill is absolutely right ( meaning he should pay more atention to the BTC site...Ha! he knows me...)..
.It Was A Player! And now me up two units I have to just go with the flow...BACK TO THE BANKER FOR ONE UNIT!
PP BBBB P B P B P so far...those of you who want to circle-the-wagons, make sure you provide for the women and children...
The cocktail waitress has left, but across the way I can see as follow
PP BB PP last six hands...
AND someone just won $319 on slots behind me..
Cha Ching, Cha Ching...bring it on!.
who wANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?[/quote
PS: Not that it matters, but I noted on my card for 9: 29 pm, they are working on opening table #3...by the time they shudffle 8 decks and do everything they can to defeat us, i suspect 10pm opening...told you all this will be a real time/ real casino/ real "noise" shoe, from my notes perspective,...really this is REAL TIME ( even took place almost a week ago now...i will report the real results!)
Wann'a bet?
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Great minds??? I go 1 on P, since I'm -2, I stay at 1 uit until I win a few hands (figure out the shoe).
Bill
Bill is absolutely right ( meaning he should pay more atention to the BTC site...Ha! he knows me...)..
.It Was A Player! And now me up two units I have to just go with the flow...BACK TO THE BANKER FOR ONE UNIT!
PP BBBB P B P B P so far...those of you who want to circle-the-wagons, make sure you provide for the women and children...
The cocktail waitress has left, but across the way I can see as follow
PP BB PP last six hands...
AND someone just won $319 on slots behind me..
Cha Ching, Cha Ching...bring it on!.
who wANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
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Great idea to ask what does the entire shoe looks like up to this point,Ellis. Otherwise, we have to continue to scroll down to find out what each previous decision was. Let the moderator be aware of that as we continue, to give all prior results up until the newest decision being revealed. That being said, I will place 1 unit on Banker. This is a great exercise!
Joeystyle:
great thought...
i am most excited by the fact that we now have 8 players in/out of this shoe.
this is the most # of BTC forum members involved in a single post in a long while!
THIS IS A REAL SHOE. I AM PLAYING EXACTLY AS I PLAYED IT THE OTHER DAY.
THIS IS NOT, REPEAT NOT A TEST OF WHAT WORKS, WHAT DOESN'T e.v.e.r.y. s.i.n.g.l.e. h.a.n. d ( nothing works every single hand!!!), and it is not a test of Ellis' will and deternination to make a $million ( see his earlier post)
rather, it is a real-time ( almost) engagement of all of our forum members ideas/concepts, and as stated befor:
1) just say what you bet
2) say how much and what Money Management strategy are you using for this shoe??
3) help us all have a look at just what NOR, SAP, SYS 40, or w.h.a.t.e.v.e.r. it is you are using to win/ play /bet ( you will not be held accountable for every hand! And I will not respond to negative comments!)
Ellis rules in my book, no matter what! I have met him and Keith, they are the "real deal" and any doubts sign up for the Vegas seminar and you will become a true believer
Or, cannot make it to Vegas??? just read a bunch of the previos posts, and you will catch up real quick to "where we ( as a group ) are at..."
That said, game on...Our singular goal is to "win this shoe", whether your objective is one unit, two units, five units or Whatever>>>>>>>>
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So what are we at? PP BBBB P B P B ?
yes that is exactly where we are at
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I should spend more time here. I see I lost my first bet and would have followed with another OTBL bet on B and lost that as well...-2 units and holding for a better definition of the shoe. Possible F shoe with the 4 in a row and a ZZ run starting.
Bill
I have played with Bill in Biloxi, MS. several times, and I understand if us old-timers are sometimes uncertain, then we all can benefit by learning NOR, Sys 40, SAP counts, etc!
Well, the result WAS a Banker, and good call by newbie to the forum Dancito, asking about a bit of terminology...FYI, it is explained in many of the previous posts, and that is the beautiful thing about this forum, it is "built on prior concepts, prior testing, prior "best practices concepts" have a look, Dan and you will see...
AGAIN, does not mean a.n.y. bet is 4sure...reminder about the 50/50 rule...
----------------We strive to "win" the shoe/get-in/get-out with our predetermined stop-losses, etc. We have learned that this is the best path to success...
So I am up a unit now after four 1's-in-a-row, but do I keep up with the mini streak of chop? OK, so I will, and I will just FOLLOW-THE-SHOE, and bet another "chop" to Player for my next bet. This streak ( of 1's) is getting a bit long-in-the-tooth, but when I was actually at the table, I felt it was the best thing to do... ( ps --I am following my own 1,1,2,2,4 progression up and down, as i am betting much more than table minimums...)
REMINDER- MONEY MANAGEMENT IS A PERSONAL thing, but you have to have a MM strategy in mind...and stick to it....
We shall see, right?
Oh, and the Cocktail Waitress just showed up, right as I was betting! ( one of my oersonal superstitions about betting is if the CW shows up right as a bet is being placed, look out)
Oh well, too late as the dealer has just dealt the cards...should have looked both ways before crossing...
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Right, but there HAS been a 4. OTB4L automatically beats 2s. with OTB4l Mode is decided by which you are seeing more of between 3's = Mode 2 and 4's = mode 3. So according to NOR, OTB4L is in Mode 3 on straight runs but we don't know about ZZ runs yet.
I believe the game now stands at PP BBBB P B. Since I do not yet know the ZZ Mode, my bet is only 1 unit on B.
Right now my score stands at +1.
Well, here we go and the chop was "on"' resulting in a Player win. Fortunately, I guessed right and brought me back to Even for the shoe
Now the shoe stood at PP BBBB P B P
For me, my next bet was placed on Banker for one unit, as I was still thinking chop and the 1's had their own little streak going..
Anyone else?
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Missed last day. Would not have made a bet yet unyil now. Bet 1 unit on P looking for OTBL.
Bill
Bill, Dancito and and B@..........we were all wrong...it was the Banker...
So, When I played the actual shoe, i said "OK" it is chop, but really another kind of streak and while i wanted to stay on OT4BL I decided to go back to Player side for 2 units...MY BET $50 ( 2 UNITS ON THE pLAYER, AND NOT FEELING REALLY GOOD ABOUT IT...)( my progression 1,1,2,2,4)
Ellis can you help out with NOR, and Why? Bet progression?.NOTE I GLANCED UP AND LOOKED OVER AT THE OTHER TOTE BOARD ACROSS THE WAY, AND IT WAS 4p IN A ROW..
reminder this is real playing conditions, real thoughts, real results.........welcome to the Jungle....
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Rat farts! I thought you bet P.
Anyway at PP BBBB my bet is 2 on P.
Back to back 5s! What casino is this?
Ok,ok so Dr. Ellis was correct, Player wins !
leaves us as follows, starting with hand 1 of the shoe
P8 B5
P8 B3
Tie 9/9
B7 P1
B8 P6
B3 P1
B9 P0
P4 B2
Or, P241(unconfirmed)
Staying with my 1,1,2,2,4 progression, It seems that maybe OTB4L is looking good so I will stay on the P for another hand for 1 unit.
deal!
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Well I missed a bet flirting with the waitress. But after PP BBB, I'll bet 1 unit on P with Katchaz. And yes, Zebra is right waiting for the OTB4L Mode to reveal itself as things stand right now.
Banker it is, that's 4-in-a-row
Got back to even with my Banker bet, but 6 hands in we are 2P and 4B, both in a row.
I am back to even, so I stay on the Banker for yet another Banker...play the shoe for 1 unit.
So far P24( unconfirmed )
Glanced over to the other tote board and saw last 10 hands were 5P and 5 B...that table is completely full, with many players betting over-top of the seated players. am I missing something?
Gentlemen, place your bets...
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If I HAD to bet I would go P, but I would still rather watch the shoe develop.
I'll come back to this thread when it nears the end of the first column
Paul
Good point by Zebra here, to wait a bit more. Also looks like B@cc@r@t just showed up at the table and wants to bet the Banker. Well the Banker did indeed come through,and that leaves me down 2 units...repeats looking good to me,so Iwill progress up in my progression of 1,1,2,2,4 to a 2 unit bet on the Banker for the next hand. Anyone care to join me?
So far we arre looking at the following first 6 hands played:
P8 B5 Player wins
P8 B3 Player wins
tie 9/9
B7 P1 Banker wins
B8 P6 Banker wins
B3 P1 Banker wins ( and yours truly is down 2 units...)
All the while,the casino continues to appear more crowded from my vantage point ( seat 5 at the table...)
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Well, ladies and gents, looks like everyone of us not quite ready to take this for a spin.
No, I am NOT in cahoots with Elis on this, but i will say his imaginary friendly chip of $1,000,000 large would have been a winner! Bank it was, for hand #5.
Leaves us as follows:
P8 B5 Player Wins
P8 B3 Player wins
Tie 9/9
B7 P1 Banker wins
B8 P6 Banker wins ( alas, it was only an inaginary chip...)
So on to the next hand. PPBB so far ( or P22 for those who wanna know)...looks like a P to me... I'm on P for 1 unit.
Oh, and for those of you who missed out or are just joining in, the first post explains the casino and the playing conditions...THIS IS AN ACTUAL SHOE
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I'm proud of you guys! You are doing the right thing! But, see, I'm the boss. So I have to win at least a million dollars in this shoe just to live up to expectations. Betcha I do. BUT, Katchaz, you have to convince these guys we are not in cahoots on this shoe. Ha, lots of luck! BTW, where did this shoe come from?
This sorta reminds me of where my head was at when I had 300 spectators watching for me to win yet again. You start thinking, maybe everything I think I know is complete bullshit. But then It all worked out About 300 times in a row. Then you start thinking: maybe its not bullshit after all. After all, it all worked out 300 times in a row. That tends to build your confidence.
I say I'll win at least a million in this shoe. Any takers?
Well, ladies and gents, looks like everyone of us not quite ready to take this for a spin.
No, I am NOT in cahoots with Elis on this, but i will say his imaginary friendly chip of $1,000,000 large would have been a winner! Bank it was, for hand #5.
Leaves us as follows:
P8 B5 Player Wins
P8 B3 Player wins
Tie 9/9
B7 P1 Banker wins
B8 P6 Banker wins ( alas, it was only an inaginary chip...)
So on to the next hand. PPBB so far ( or P22 for those who wanna know)...looks like a P to me... I'm on P for 1 unit.
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I would Bet Banker. If the shoe bias towards OTB4L or S40 banker could be the choice.
Well, vinfong318 was absolutely right, I missed it with my Player bet, and Ellis says no bet still, so here is where we are after the 4th hand.
P8 B5 ( no bet)
P8 B3 ( no bet, but Ellis did guess P corrrectly)
T 9/9
B7 P1 Banker wins. So I am down one unit.
So for hand #5 I will lay off as i am down one unit ($25) and it is still early in the shoe.
So, what will it be?
Kids - do not try this at home ..we are professionals!
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Sure enough, hand # 23 was a Player (P7 B6), which leaves us at :
PP
BBBB
P
B
P
B
PPP
B
PP
B
PP
B
P
B
P
That suggests to me 1 unit on the Player, as there seems to be a strong enough pattern of PP to warrant a second P.But in the back of my mind, i am thinking the string of single bankers is getting a bit long in the tooth...( though i have seen "runs" of more than 10 singles on P and B before a switch to 2-or-more consecutive, enough times to know that nobody knows!) For now, let's see how this plays out...another way to look at it would be to say "look at all those 1's, in the shoe...clearly the most dominant...though last "1"on P is still unconfirmed...hmmmmmmm (?)