[How the cards fall]

Hi Oz thanks for your thoughts on no commission

I just choose not to play those tables even though you can turn the cards over and they give you comfy seats!

Can play regular banker 6 rule tables where you don't have to insure against ties

 

Also the double zeros side by side on the $2.50 and $5 European layout roulette wheels is the same - 5.4% edge compared to 2.7% single zero

Why play it when you can play rapid roulette with a single zero and low mins?

 

What about blackjack plus where a dealer 22 is a push on all bers!!

 

Yet the tables are still packed?? 

Just funding James Packers and Mariah Carey's retirement fund!

[How the cards fall]

Not too much to discuss after reading this thread

Just a lot of hard work and practise 

I'm sure a lot of questions have been answered for many members

 

[How the cards fall]

A question for you guys about RD1

I studied this but I mostly use it for repeats following repeats (repeats only)

The rule: bet straight down after losing to a 1 or a 1,2 (not 100% sure on that rule) I never really took a lot of notice of

Just wondering if when you guys decide to use RD1 do you play this rule with the 1 and 1,2 pattern ?

I know I had this discussion with CT70 and he said he uses RD1 on roulette as per the rule book and does well.

My thoughts are when you are playing repeats after repeats and then you get a 1 and a 1,2 it may be time to look for a complete change of bias rather than try to play out RD1?

 

Question for Oz: Did you see James Packer's (Crown Casino's) version of no commission baccarat ??

It is a true no commission with no banker 6 rule

BUT

Ties win all Banker / Player bets !!

Effectively making it a 10% house edge if I'm not wrong !!

I cant believe the idiots that still pack out the tables and play this game

Of course I'm talking main casino floor which you may not see too much of.

 

[How the cards fall]

I agree wit that as I play roulette red / black more than bacc and you do not seem to get the same biases and playing around with cards

They are more free running and random and often easier to take advantage of

 

[How the cards fall]

Thanks CT70 this is also a great post and very helpful to me

I'm sure other members will agree

[How the cards fall]

Another great post

And entertaining too!

 

[What Exactly is SAP and 5D ?]

5D manuals sent to you

[What Exactly is SAP and 5D ?]

I'll send you tomorrow

You can thank kachatz for writing it and offering anyone a copy.

[How the cards fall]

Not sure if members realise how much valuable info is in this discussion

What started out as a SS discussion and card clump trends turned into reference to how Norm and Oz play and then a play by play by Oz showing how he breaks down the shoe into NOR sections

Flat betting, 1,2 loop, probing bets

Some great classic sayings from Oz which you can memorise for when you play to keep you on the right track

Pando's S40M1 play method

For me it has really helped consolidate everything I have been doing and it gives me confidence to know this is coming from a guy who does this full time and another guy that could if he wanted to.

Thanks to nikolasyue for providing the example and posting his play

I would advise all members to reread the last few posts from Members Only area and be thankful its provided on this forum as its pretty much a guide on how to win. 

[How the cards fall]

Great I had forgotten about your method of play

I think you told me once but I forgot

That's a good logical way to play S40M1

[How the cards fall]

But would you have played S40M1 at any time in that shoe?

There was a point where I looked at it.

I used to share the same opinion as Oz that S40M1 was not worth the risk as the 2's hurt so much but you have proved that you can do it if you use it right

I think you have to commit though if you are going to use t and not get scared when you get 1 x 2iar

Results of O v T below:

TOOOOTTTOTOTTOTOTOTTTTOTTOOOTTOOTTTTT

T1431112111114123225

O = 15

T = 22

I'm guessing this is hand shuffled 

 

[How the cards fall]

Yes I  like the way Oz has won so many units but kept it so simple in terms of just basic NOR patterns.

Don't make it harder than it has to be

[How the cards fall]

20 hours ago, avion said:

Oz, I like it when you don't take your medication.  The fire inside you burns with a greater intensity.  Bring it on my friend......and thank you for all that you share.

No please take your medication:

For our benefit - I doubt they will let you on the forum in jail!

For your benefit - they don't have baccarat in jail!

Maybe a poker game for canteen money at best!

[How the cards fall]

Here is how I might have played it

Banker SS

TBL / S40M1

S40 / opposites

 

I cant really say because its never the same as playing the real thing

I only flat bet because I still don't know when to hit a 1,2 reliably so I'm happy to flat bet and come out on top rather than hit a 1,2 at wrong time and lose.

The things I do that some people may not is I record banker and player events as separate lines but I can still see them together

Also the same with straight events and ZZ events

In a lot of ways its similar to what Oz says in his posts - I'm just looking for a bias to play

I am aware of MDB+ bets but more often than not I also use them to tell me not to bet - sometimes I play them

What I found is that sometimes Banker and Player are good to break up and look at separately and sometimes to look at together

Also the same with straight and ZZ events - sometimes good to separate and sometimes good to combine

[How the cards fall]

[How the cards fall]

About the SS bias and strength of the cards on 1 side I make this observation for live dealer online hand shuffled play

I don't know if this same phenomenon would apply to machine shuffled as we have to assume the cards will be 'placed' into a specific order to produce specific patterns.

I don't know if this will cause the same noticeable strong side card patterns as the combinations are all probably calculated by computer

I have not played baccarat at my local casino for a while because why would I when my unit size is still small enough to allow me to play online with hand shuffle and no banker 6 rule.

My local casino on the main floor uses all preshuffled cards put through shufflers and they all seem to come out with primarily strong OTBL bias but they throw in curve ball shoes as well.

So I just don't really know if machine shuffle will allow for the same SS card pattern observations like I get with hand shuffle.

Well Crown Perth and Crown Melbourne are both owned by James Packer and his wealth category is gaming

I daresay Mariah Carey is not after him for his good looks

 

[How the cards fall]

Good to hear that Norm used to go by this theory it backs up what I'm thinking.

From my experience I agree with everything you say above

I like to see at least a 3iar before I consider it SS as I find 2's unreliable also - too much chance of OTBL or S40 rather than SS

There can be a SS bias that will suddenly switch sides and go immediately SS on the other side this can throw you off if you don't look for it.

Then it sort of becomes a repeat bias where it keeps switching sides.

Looking at previous streak lengths can also be beneficial to determine when the streak will end (that goes for ZZ and straight events IMO) but with a strong SS bias it can always break through all previous lengths.

You can really clean up if you back a long SS but at the same time sometimes its better to take a 1 or 2 unit win if your not sure rather than back it all the way and break even or lose

In all the discussions and books about baccarat of which there are few of any value nobody really talks about the value of the scores and the patterns and trends of the cards much.

There are people who have tried to use card counting with baccarat and some people who claim that card counting can give you a slight edge but I fail to see how.

Definitely SS phenomenon exists and I believe it does give the player an advantage and its not that hard to pick once you start looking for it.

 

[How the cards fall]

definitely using this now to make all my decisions.

at any time i'm always aware of if the cards seem to favour one side, they alternate, or they are neutral

this determines if I take a bet, or pass on a bet

so far results are good

will let you know in time if it results in long term better results but I recommend players to look at this if you haven't already

[How the cards fall]

yes I notice this too.

a little harder to pick but happens.

one side gets good hand then the other

[How the cards fall]

Yes this is true

Exactly right that sometimes the side that is winning doesn't draw naturals or great hands or scores but the other side just loses no matter what

Both situations cause the same outcome - a SS bias

It exists that's for sure and we should look for it rather than just outcomes.

Another reason why its always better to follow bias than to try and predict the change in a bias

 

 

[How the cards fall]

Poker players will also tell you this happens where one player gets unbelievable draws all night that just cant be beaten

I know poker players who will leave a table when they see this as they know they just cant beat this luck with any amount of skill so they move on.

[How the cards fall]

I would liken this to all card games where sometimes one side gets good draws

Its trends and patterns of cards.

Blackjack players use clumping to get and advantage or not play when the cards are clumped low or high

If one side is getting all good hands in baccarat then it would make sense to play SS on that side while the bias lasted

When this happens I found its very hard for the SS to lose - it just seems to pull naturals and then the weak side pulls what you think is a good hand and then the SS pulls an even better one and wins

What I found in this situation is if say Banker is strong and all theories and methods and strategies point to a player bet then you would be best to either pass on this bet or consider to bet banker instead

Many times I have used every 'tell' to determine to bet say player and then banker wins

Times like that you say - well I cant win them all or that's just baccarat

Well consider the SS card theory and this could provide and answer as to why those bets fail.

I now look for SS cards and if I think it will have a bearing on the outcome then I pass on that bet or bet with the SS 

 

[How the cards fall]

Something not discussed about much is the strength of either banker or player at any 1 time based on how the cards fall

I have noticed that this does influence outcomes.

Sometimes I use this to bet and sometimes use it to not bet

For example if all bankers are going to 2 BUT you get say 2 strong banker draws resulting in say 2 naturals - I will either not take the bet based on the strength of banker and chance the 2 will go 3 OR I will take the bet based on an MDB+ type bet backed up by the strong banker outcomes

If you look at purely decisions and do not consider this then it could be an extra advantage you are missing out on.

Start looking at how the cards fall and at any 1 time try to see if there is 1 side which is definitively stronger therefore possibly influencing the outcome.

Use this to back up a good bet and make it a stronger bet OR use it to not bet on a 'not too sure' bet

[..::!!BAC SCAM!!::..]

Cheers for the posts Oz. A big help and encouragement. 

I still remember your post a few years ago which was what caused me to do away with negative progressions: 

'if you flat bet you will win 50% of your bets. If you can't use everything on this forum to gain you A better than 50% edge you simply aren't putting in the work'

[Mode 2 & Mode 3]

It is never necessary to use either mode - everything is up to you

Modes 2 and 3 as per the manual were designed to allow you to sustain either 2 losses (mode 2) or 3 losses (mode 3) and still continue playing the method you were playing

When you follow a bias you are going to at some point sustain a loss

The question is do you think that the loss was just a deviation and therefore the bias will continue?

How many losses in a row do you keep betting that the bias you are trying to follow will return?

Or do you reverse the theory and go OTR (follow the change)

Its all determined by what you see as consistent events happening.

Of course murphy's law says you will sit back and choose a mode and as soon as you bet - the event that you have chosen to avoid will come up!

What sort of progression are you using if any?

As for a streaky shoe are you referring to TBL or F / SS ?

Its all things you have to consider