brad01
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Posts posted by brad01
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Bacplayer
My advice is focus on 1 bias only
Less things to worry about and more focus on 1 bias
If you were to focus on 1 bias only I would be choosing the strongest most dominant one which Oz and others stated as SS (Strong Side)
Look for single events on the weak side (1's) and multiple events on the strong side of at least 3's
A minimum trigger would be PBBB (13)
Another thing to look for may be the SS pulling really good scores like some naturals and some really unbelievable draws like a 2 card total of 1 and then pull a 6 or a 7 on the 3rd card
Also the weak side having really bad luck like a 9 and then draw an ace to hit zero
A stronger trigger might be 1213
Look at previous history and see if the SS has long runs
When you see what you think is a SS bias either place a probing bet or paper bet as Oz said or place a 1 unit bet
If you win you need to decide whether to keep betting for 2 units or go OTR - based on feel previous history MC / LC etc
Every SS bias you bet on have a stop loss of -2
If you hit -2 you must wait until the next SS bias until you bet again
$25 is high for a beginner so consider to play online for smaller units
If you can turn this SS strategy into a winning one then you can add repeats next and then gradually all other biases
That's just my opinion
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Have sent you copy
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'5D is the best flashlight'
Quote from kachatz
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Yes I absolutely agree as per 'how the cards fall'
SS and repeat are so strong when they run - hotter than S40 / OTBL
When I play roulette red / black I rarely play S40 or OTBL but mostly just wait for SS or repeat bias as I get a much better hit rate with them than S40 / OTBL
Roulette does tend to be more streaky than choppy though I feel
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Fact of life as far as I see it - partnerships in business rarely work out for long
People go in different directions and I wish Ellis all the best but the freedom we have in this forum and the members here is a great thing
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I heard you
I will transpose to a score sheet with your comments
Thanks a lot
I'm sure everyone appreciates it
I need a headache pill after reading all that!
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1 hour ago, XDotNet said:
1. Read the shoe duhhhhhhhh (joking a bit because Oz/Way2/Avion/Brad/Pando etc.. have been saying this over and over and over and over).
FOLLOW THE SHOE!
WHEN IN DOUBT WAIT IT OUT!
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6-7-8 = 1 - 1,16 - 1.33
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A 6,7,8
Now someone has hacked way2fasts account!
This is getting out of control
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I am reemphasising the principles of A B C trading can be applied to baccarat / gambling
I propose:
A = trigger point where you see a potential bias forming
B - stop loss 1 - 2 units where you decide that you potentially picked the bias wrong and cut your losses rather than risk more $$ that it will turn around
C - the maximum range you expect the bias to go for before a potential change - by this point you should have locked in a win or be prepared to quit from a high point after 1 - 2 losses. If in doubt lock in a profit before
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Net betting principle is the net result of 2 possible outcomes will be zero
In order to do that whatever is on one side must be countered by the same number on the opposite side
the problem is when you get a streak of 5 or 6 on one side how far do you follow it hoping you will get a counter result on the other side?
Options are:
1. stop and wait for result on opposite side
2. Bet OTR with the SS
5 or 6 bankers in a row I would suggest you should be OTR betting banker or stopped betting waiting for player to win and looking to restart
Hope this helps
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Hey Xdot I saw you log onto 5 dimes / VIG feed the other day
These shoes are preshuffled and then auto shuffled so I'm very cautious about them
5 dimes are hand shuffled but nothing to say they cant be similar.
If you take out several sporadic events its really an OTBL bias with a TBL section in there
The sporadic events are what throw you off seeing what's really there.
I came in where the 217 is and actually picked the SS banker right and rode it out till the end
After that I went for SS once more and lost and then decided to try for TBL section which I got correct
So I finished +5 playing pretty cautiously but probing bets, predicting changes, locking in profits, and if you aren't sure don't bet and sit back a hand were the key
One thing I noticed was what CT70 said - many times you will be the only player on the table making the bets you are - everyone else will be against you
About the 211, 311, remember when nothing appears to be working OTBL is usually the most robust strategy
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Hahaha you gotta have some fun with this game!
But seriously - follow the shoe
Those 3 words are Norm's legacy
Yes we need to stop going round in circles and just do that
Here's a Kerry Packer / Crown Casino special from today:
B421132323112312171111325131243
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U should have switched to a 345 ?? !!
haaa!
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Hi Glenn,
Open up an online live dealer account and you can play with practise money
Be careful practising with other shoes if you don't know where they came from or computer generated shoes as they may not be the same as live shoes
I could suggest;
Black Orchid Casino
Celtic Casino
and there are many others
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I have been thinking of creating a 'reference shoe' where we shuffle it as random as we can and then record the card order / outcome
Then we could use this card order / known outcome as a reference deck and we could chart the effects of various factors;
Cutting the deck at different points.
Burning cards at the start
Burning cards every hand
Different types of hand shuffle from the reference deck starting point
Machine shuffle? probably not possible unless someone can buy or steal a shuffle machine.
I really think its in our best interests to know the outcomes of all of these and what sort of effect they will have.
This will tell us what effect casino card manipulation will have on the game
This would not be a terribly hard thing to do just quite time consuming
The fact is this question has come up many times in the past and Ellis (when he was here) used to preach casino card manipulation was rampant.
But from the posts above it appears none of us really knows the effects of the above card factors and how much effect they have on the outcome of the shoe and we really should.
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Yes Xdot is right I listed the triggers I saw as good in 3 Events Method
Both way2fast and kachatz both said it looked ok so they must have been ok
My basis for the triggers was 4 straight wins or 3 of 4 for the bias you are looking for.
Eg 2111 if you apply to S40 = LWWW (3 of 4 wins)
1111 = WWWW
Previous history can negate these triggers so its a case by case situation.
I would suggest you read a recent thread called IBac scam.
Oz talks about picking a bias with a probing bet and then talks about a 'bias within a bias'
Also about whether a loss is just a 'blip' in the bias and it will return or its a sign of a change to a new bias - waiting it out to see rather than keep betting
These are all things you have to consider and learn
In regards to what NOR system likes what - Ellis when he was on this forum was a big one for that:
1's and 1's and 2's = S40
2's and 2's and 3's = OTBL
1's and 3+'s (no 2's) = TBL / S40M1
3+'s with low 1's = F or RD1 or repeats
Theres a chart someone posted on Premum Members 'Uncle Kevin's Cheat Sheet'
It shows all of this
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If you want a SS trigger then I may suggest;
Look for a 1 on the weak side and a 3 or more on the SS
PBBB = banker SS
This is minimum
4 or more is maybe better
also you can wait to see if the SS loses and still comes back strong:
1312
PBBBPBB = banker SS has lost and come back
If you notice naturals and good draws on SS that's also a good sign to back it up
If you play roulette you will see lines of reds say with single black numbers in between - same thing
Look for this to start with and win with this
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Unfortunately the answer to win at bacc is to be able to play all biases as potentially they could all occur throughout 1 shoe at different points
Oz summarised all of them in a recent post and mentioned its not unusual to play all in the one shoe;
S40
RD1
OTBL
TBL / S40M1
SS
In that post it was also mentioned that SS overrules all when its dominant
My advice would be to learn all but to start off playing by recognising and playing SS only
When you can go through a shoe and recognise when a SS bias comes up or more importantly when it doesn't and are able to target a few units and win if you pick it right and be patient enough to not chase it and wait for next run if you don't pick it right - then you know how to win and you just need to duplicate what you did with SS on all other biases.
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Good point Pando
Anyone who plays live will know the importance of knowing exactly how much you are up or down at any moment
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Mine is same as Pando's 2 and 3 above.
Mine flat bet all the way so don't need to remember amount
I do record some info but mostly look at tote board
I found when I was recording too much it took my mind off what was actually happening
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And its the human element in everything which is always the weakness
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Yes but he has a pretty hot girl now even if she is getting on a bit (Mariah Carey)
Blackjack plus rules dealer 22 is a push BUT you get some bonus for a 5 card 21 or something like that
What they give you they have already taken away more
All low stakes tables like this
As I said the bacc no commission is like that
They are touch tables where players turn cards over and you get comfy lounge seats with the waitresses coming around regularly (nothing free though)
They give you a bonus payout for a 3 card natural but all player / banker bets lose on ties
Alternatively you can play banker 6 tables where its non touch and you get stools to sit on if you can get a seat.
Cards are the same for both - preshuffled and then put though shufflers
All blackjack tables use CSM's (Continuous Shuffle Machines - 1 to 6 brand) which keeps them clumped and they keep the tables full which makes it even harder to win I believe.
Roulette is 2 zeros on all $2.50 and $5 tables
Dress code now doesn't exist - there's guys in there that look like they crawled off a park bench
One thing I will say though he has pumped a heap of money into the hotel and restuarants which is a plus to the whole thing.
And you can still find good games you just have to know what you are looking for and not play the crap
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The problem with following runs is everyone looks at what they could of got off of 1 long run but they may not consider how many times they backed what they hoped would be a long run and it switched right then or they broke even got a small win
Of course I'm talking flat betting if it was a progression they would have probably dug themselves a deep hole
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Are casinos really creating the biases...
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Bacplayer you are right to keep it simple
Gambling can really be only 3 things in my opinion:
Decision based on luck (no bet selection - what entertainment players do)
Decision based on following previous patterns / events (NOR)
Decision based on going against previous patterns events (Reverse SAP / MDB+)
You can use both at once
Lets say we get P313132
Player side always goes to 3
After the first player event of 3 you could bet a player 1 will go to 2 and then to 3 and then end at 3
After the 3rd player event you could bet that as per MDB+ rules 3's will not continue
Generally I prefer to go with a bias than go against it although there are exceptions
At what point do you switch NOR methods?
Generally after 2 losses (-2) on 1 bias
If you pick 2 biases wrong and you get to -2, -2 = -4 and then you pick one right you could ride it out to be +5 or more
Don't try and follow a wrong decision and turn it right
Wait till you pick a right decision and ride it.
Every decision must have a stop loss and a win goal.
also I feel its always better lock in a profit on a winning bias if you are not sure about riding it out.rather than giving away the profit you made.